Article: 2024 Prospect Previews: Jaxon Wiggins

[Jamie Cameron]

With the 68th pick in the 2023 draft, the Cubs selected Jaxon Wiggins, a high-risk, high-reward right-handed pitcher out of the University of Arkansas. What should Cubs fans expect in 2024?

Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo

The Cubs drafted Jaxon Wiggins with the 68th pick in the 2023 draft, with a compensatory pick they acquired when Willson Contreras departed as a free agent. Wiggins is a pitching prospect out of the University of Arkansas and ranked as the 128th-best prospect on our pre-Draft consensus board. Such a ranking is unfair, however, as Wiggins missed the entire 2023 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Out of sight, out of mind.

Scouting and Signing
The Cubs signed Wiggins away from a return to the Razorbacks for a little over $1.4 million, around $400,000 over slot. This is a high-risk, high-reward pick, a risk made much more palatable by the impressive start Matt Shaw has made to his professional career.

An excellent basketball player, Wiggins has athleticism that translates to the mound. At 6’6", 225 pounds, there’s still room for projection in a frame that produced some of the best velocity in college baseball when healthy.

Wiggins's arsenal is headlined by his fastball, which operates at 95-97 mph but can touch 99. While the pitch can be a little flat, his velocity gives him plenty of margin for error if he can throw it for strikes on a consistent basis. Wiggins also has an above-average slider with solid two-plane tilt; an average changeup that he didn’t throw a ton; and a curveball that’s newer and that the Cubs' development staff will likely view as an untapped resource.

The key for Wiggins, when he returns, will be throwing strikes. In college, he frequently fell behind in counts and lost hitters, walking 43 of them in 66 innings in 2022. Fastball command should be development goal number one when he returns from injury. Regardless, there’s a chance Wiggins moves to the bullpen before long if his strike throwing remains as inconsistent as it was in college.

2023 Performance and 2024 Expectations
There isn’t much to say here, given Wiggins’s injury and recovery timeline. For now, a return to full health is the only concern Cubs fans should have. It should be noted that Ty Nichols, the area scout who recommended Wiggins, had a hand in the selection of both Jordan Wicks and Cade Horton, which should inspire some confidence.

Much like outcomes in the minor leagues, performance metrics in college baseball should be scrutinized, particularly in light of the recently bloated offensive environment. I’d focus more on the fact that Wiggins struck out 110 hitters in 89 innings than an ERA north of 6.00. Make no mistake, though, the Wiggins pick is a swing for the fences, albeit one on which the Cubs are more likely to connect than most MLB organizations might be. The chance of missing altogether is quite high, but the payoff for a flush connection would be impressive.

How you feel about the Wiggins pick, entering 2024? What level do you want to see him reach, as he returns from injury and makes his professional debut?

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[Jason Ross]

Wiggins is the most underrated prospect in our system, IMO. I think people see the TJS and the college numbers and write him off as just a lottery ticket, but there was some real helium on his progress in the fall, and we never got to see it in the spring. In a draft that was pretty devoid of high-end-college arms outside of the top-20 or so picks, the Cubs got someone who had first round hype later in the draft. Add in that this was a Ty Nichols recommendation (he recommended Wicks and Horton!) and I'm all in on Wiggins. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Wiggins is the most underrated prospect in our system, IMO. I think people see the TJS and the college numbers and write him off as just a lottery ticket, but there was some real helium on his progress in the fall, and we never got to see it in the spring. In a draft that was pretty devoid of high-end-college arms outside of the top-20 or so picks, the Cubs got someone who had first round hype later in the draft. Add in that this was a Ty Nichols recommendation (he recommended Wicks and Horton!) and I'm all in on Wiggins. 

I agree, I don't think he'll rise as high and as quickly as Horton did, but maybe make a similar jump relative to the consensus from before he takes the mound professionally, if that makes sense.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I agree, I don't think he'll rise as high and as quickly as Horton did, but maybe make a similar jump relative to the consensus from before he takes the mound professionally, if that makes sense.

Agreed. I think he'll come a long a bit slower than Horton this year. With that said, if you told me Wiggins had a similar (although relative to his draft position) rise from a guy fans don't even include in their org-top-20's to being a top-50 guy league wide...I'd entirely buy it. Stuff jumps that much. 

[Tryptamine]

The tools are all there, but my biggest concern is the same one I had on the day he was drafted. The Cub lab seems to excel at improving the stuff of pitchability guys. Finding them more velocity, better spin and shape, etc. Thus far, I don't recall anyone with severe control issues who they've managed to fix. In fact it was a major issue in the pen last year. 

[Jamie Cameron]

9 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Wiggins is the most underrated prospect in our system, IMO. I think people see the TJS and the college numbers and write him off as just a lottery ticket, but there was some real helium on his progress in the fall, and we never got to see it in the spring. In a draft that was pretty devoid of high-end-college arms outside of the top-20 or so picks, the Cubs got someone who had first round hype later in the draft. Add in that this was a Ty Nichols recommendation (he recommended Wicks and Horton!) and I'm all in on Wiggins. 

Thanks for reading/commenting. I have no skin in the game as a non-Cubs fan, but I am intrigued to see how this goes in 2024. As you say, college performance is a total non-factor for me. The only thing I'm interested in for Wiggins is health in 2024. I'd imagine it takes time to regain the stuff and some command (which was fringy in the first place), but there's little to lose. Sounds like the Cubs think there's potentially more there with some of his pitches too, particularly his curveball.

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Thanks for reading/commenting. I have no skin in the game as a non-Cubs fan, but I am intrigued to see how this goes in 2024. As you say, college performance is a total non-factor for me. The only thing I'm interested in for Wiggins is health in 2024. I'd imagine it takes time to regain the stuff and some command (which was fringy in the first place), but there's little to lose. Sounds like the Cubs think there's potentially more there with some of his pitches too, particularly his curveball.

Yeah, I love the gamble there. The control/command was always a bit...iffy in his profile. With that said, SEC Junior year is the big jump year we see for starters. Reports from the fall were that his secondaries took a big step forward on their own, so it'll be interesting to see how and if that continues to hold true. 

I'm pretty excited about him and was far more excited about him than the general fan. Positives: I was far more excited about Cade Horton, too! Negatives: I was far less excited about Kris Bryant on draft day, so my draft-day confidence giveth and it taketh haha. 

[Jason Ross]

7 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

The tools are all there, but my biggest concern is the same one I had on the day he was drafted. The Cub lab seems to excel at improving the stuff of pitchability guys. Finding them more velocity, better spin and shape, etc. Thus far, I don't recall anyone with severe control issues who they've managed to fix. In fact it was a major issue in the pen last year. 

Daniel Palencia is one. I wrote about it in my top-20 list write up. It's small sample still, but he only walked six in his last 17 innings in the bullpen. There was some decent regression in Luke Little's walk rates last season as well. Both haven't done enough to where you can say "yeah, these guys are entirely, fully, 100% better" but there were some positive movements for both.