Article: The Cubs Hitting Target No One is Talking About, But Everyone Should Be

[Matthew Trueblood]

Right now, all eyes are on the Cubs' starting rotation. As the New Year draws near, they have yet to address a glaring need there. They have another glaring need, though, and there's one player who seems a perfect fit for it.

Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan | 2023 Oct 7

Every winter, a handful of trades happen without having ever been on anyone's radar. In early 2015, the Cubs traded for Dexter Fowler, surrendering Luis Valbuena and Dan Straily in the exchange, and it came almost out of nowhere. Yet, it was the move that completed and lent synergy to that offseason, and to the 2015 Cubs as a whole. Fowler was only under team control for one year, but getting his on-base skills atop the batting order catalyzed the team in a way that would have had a lasting impact, even if he hadn't come back unexpectedly in 2016.

That trade made sense for both the Cubs and the Houston Astros, and a sagacious baseball person could have predicted it, if their attention had been directed that way. At the time, though, it just wasn't at the forefront of anyone's mind. The deal almost perfectly coincided with the Nationals and Max Scherzer agreeing to a record-breaking free-agent deal. There had already been a flurry of moves that winter, including Ben Zobrist being traded to Oakland, and there were a few notable free agents left on the board. Many people were thinking about the upstart Cubs and Astros, but few were cognizant of the way they lined up in a trade.

I think we have a similar situation on our hands, as 2024 dawns, with the Cubs and the Baltimore Orioles. Chicago has yet to do a blessed thing to address their roster needs for the coming season, but we well know that they won't remain so inactive during January. On the contrary, they figure to be in on several of the top remaining free agents--the names who have consumed so many fans' whole attention this winter, like Shota Imanaga, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, and Matt Chapman. If they successfully address their rotation via free agency, though, they might do well to turn around and spin off some of their depth in that area to shore up another area of need via trade.

The Orioles need starting pitching, badly. They, too, have watched the winter market play out more or less without them, having only signed Craig Kimbrel to stop the gap left behind by an injury to Felix Bautista. They have Kyle Bradish, who was a Cy Young contender (in a weak crop of them) in 2023, and they have Grayson Rodriguez, but they're shy on good options beyond those two. What they do have in abundance, though, are bats--including at least one who might be too close to departing for nothing for their comfort.

Anthony Santander does a whole lot of things well. The 29-year-old venezolano is a switch-hitter with power and plate discipline, and he's been quietly sturdy from both sides of the plate for the last two seasons.

Anthony Santander, Splits by Pitcher Handedness, 2022-23

Split	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%
v RHP	955	0.241	0.307	0.453	7	19.5
v LHP	348	0.272	0.359	0.495	12.1	25.3

The raw numbers against righties might seem underwhelming, but that's in the AL East, with deep center fields almost across the board and an unreachable opposite-field power alley at home in Baltimore. It's also the kind of line that goes from merely solid out of a typical hitter to downright delightful out of one who (be it by virtue of being a switch-hitter or for some other skillset-related reason) mashes against the other handedness of pitcher. Even without accounting for the latter, his wRC+ (where 100 is average and higher is better) against righties is 113, and against lefties, it's 142.

Overall, Santander has 65 doubles and 61 home runs since the start of 2022. He's been about 20 percent better than an average big-league hitter. He's matchup-proof and ballpark-proof, because he doesn't strike out terribly often and hits the ball in the air hard enough and often enough to accumulate extra-base hits despite suboptimal conditions for power.

He's a below-average runner and (though you can find defensive metrics to suggest the opposite) a below-average corner outfielder. Last season, Santander spent almost 50 games at designated hitter for the Orioles, and that's where he would fit best with the Cubs, too. He could certainly rotate with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, keeping all three fresher by diminishing the time any need to spend in the outfield without taking their bats out of the lineup. He's played some first base in Baltimore, and could expand into that role with the Cubs, but he only truly adds value with what he does in the batter's box.

Nonetheless, the value he would add--especially to the Cubs--would be tremendous. Whereas Happ is a switch-hitter who scuffles against lefties, Santander is one who pummels them. He brings the kind of power that the team needs to push Dansby Swanson down to the right place for him in the batting order. A Cubs lineup with Santander (even absent any other additions) could go:

1. Nico Hoerner - 2B
2. Ian Happ - LF
3. Anthony Santander - 1B
4. Seiya Suzuki - RF
5. Christopher Morel - DH
6. Dansby Swanson - SS
7. Patrick Wisdom - 3B
8. Yan Gomes - C
9. Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF

Thst's not a lineup without problems. It is, however, a lineup with speed, power, on-base skills, and strong defense up the middle, which is what Jed Hoyer has been trying to build for a few years now, with (generously) mixed results.

Santander is only under team control for the coming season. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn upward of $12.5 million via arbitration in his fourth tour of that circuit. The Orioles love Santander as a clubhouse presence and lineup stabilizer, but they don't exactly need him the way the Cubs do, and they could use both the trade haul he should command and the money trading him would free up for other expenditures. That's how these two teams become an interesting fit.

At the moment, the Cubs have a shortage of starting pitchers, not a surfeit. They might have enough arms, but they don't have good enough ones. That could change in a few days, though, as the markets for Imanaga and others shift into high gear. Already, we've seen Lucas Giolito come off the board this week. Spending via free agency to round out the rotation would leave the Cubs in a position of sufficient strength to consider trading one of their supplemental starters, even if that guy were under long-term team control.

Javier Assad and Hayden Wesneski are the names that jump right into the conversation, here. Each has five years of club control left, and while both are more swingmen than potential aces, each has also demonstrated real upside, in both a starting and a relief role. It might take a small, lower-level prospect kicker to get a deal centered around Santander and one of those arms done, but even if so, it could make a lot of sense for the Cubs. With Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Cade Horton, and others in the mix, they can afford to jettison Assad or Wesneski to fill a need. 

Alternatively, maybe the Orioles would take interest in Drew Smyly, a serviceable veteran swingman in his own right. He's only under team control for 2024, and would represent almost no cost savings, so the Cubs would have to part with a pretty good prospect to even out the talent imbalance between Santander and Smyly, but if the famously far-looking Orioles front office is interested in slightly improving their roster balance in the short term while stockpiling more talent for the future, that framework could make some sense.

One way or another, I will have an eye on Santander until spring training starts. While his name is almost nowhere in trade rumors and the O's disclaimed a desire to move him early this offseason, the fit between those two clubs and the value he could deliver to the Cubs are both too good to ignore. If a surprise trade is going to bolster the 2024 team, this just might be the one.

What do you think of Santander as a trade target for the Cubs? Would you part with Assad or Wesneski and more to get a deal done? Sound off in the comments.

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[Bertz]

TT mentioned Santander several times early in the offseason.  I didn't like the idea then because I *sigh* thought Juan Soto was much more likely than he ended up being.  But I love when guys are true switch hitters, and his salary is notable but not problematic.  Santander along with either Bellinger or Chapman or Hoskins would make for a pretty damn strong lineup.

I also wonder if we could do some one stop shopping in Baltimore and grab a 3B.  The Orioles have too many infielders to count, maybe send Baltimore either a second arm or a higher caliber one and grab one of their second tier IF prospects (Jordan Westburg maybe?).

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

TT mentioned Santander several times early in the offseason.  I didn't like the idea then because I *sigh* thought Juan Soto was much more likely than he ended up being.  But I love when guys are true switch hitters, and his salary is notable but not problematic.  Santander along with either Bellinger or Chapman or Hoskins would make for a pretty damn strong lineup.

I also wonder if we could do some one stop shopping in Baltimore and grab a 3B.  The Orioles have too many infielders to count, maybe send Baltimore either a second arm or a higher caliber one and grab one of their second tier IF prospects (Jordan Westburg maybe?).

I like that thinking. I didn't want to strain credulity with an overly complicated proposal, but some multi-piece move involving Wicks or Brown does seem plausible (if remote) to me, too.

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

TT mentioned Santander several times early in the offseason.  I didn't like the idea then because I *sigh* thought Juan Soto was much more likely than he ended up being.  But I love when guys are true switch hitters, and his salary is notable but not problematic.  Santander along with either Bellinger or Chapman or Hoskins would make for a pretty damn strong lineup.

I also wonder if we could do some one stop shopping in Baltimore and grab a 3B.  The Orioles have too many infielders to count, maybe send Baltimore either a second arm or a higher caliber one and grab one of their second tier IF prospects (Jordan Westburg maybe?).

First Santander would be great if he could play 1B, According to MLBTV he has very little trade value, so he shouldn't cost too much.  Westburg is another story though, his trade value is higher than PCA.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Santander for Stroman was the idea I thought might have some steam, before Stroman opted out.  I’m not sure if Assad or Wesneski move the needle enough despite not being unfair value, but if that is a possibility its a move that gives you more outs with the rest of the offseason so I’d be fine with it happening quickly.

[Bertz]

12 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

First Santander would be great if he could play 1B, According to MLBTV he has very little trade value, so he shouldn't cost too much.  Westburg is another story though, his trade value is higher than PCA.

I....don't have a good sense of how BBTV got there.  I don't see Westburg on top 100 lists and he was fine but not amazing in his debut.  Like he's valuable for sure but I chalked him up as approximately Wicks/Brown valuable.  If not him though one of the others, the O's have A TON of infielders right now

[Transmogrified Tiger]

BBTV has Westburg as half of PCA’s value, and that’s with a bump from listing him as a primary 2B/backup SS

[Tryptamine]

I mentioned Santander a couple months back, but the issue is that Baltimore is going to want someone they can plug into their rotation, as an upgrade, immediately. The Cubs don't really have that. If for some reason they were willing to take prospects, then absolutely, but they're a WS quality team and they aren't going to move Santander at the cost of their chances this year.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Tryptamine

[Bertz]

50 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

BBTV has Westburg as half of PCA’s value, and that’s with a bump from listing him as a primary 2B/backup SS

I hadn't actually checked but that makes a lot more sense.  I do doubt he's even as high as BBTV has him listed though. Like this is the quick writeup Eric Longenhagen has on his player page

Quote

Graduation TLDR: Westburg's defense and issues vs good velocity kept him off the Top 100 list, but he still projected as a solid part time infielder.

 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I mentioned Santander a couple months back, but the issue is that Baltimore is going to want someone they can plug into their rotation, as an upgrade, immediately. The Cubs don't really have that. If for some reason they were willing to take prospects, then absolutely, but they're a WS quality team and they aren't going to move Santander at the cost of their chances this year.

The other issue with him is where does he play? He played 12 games at 1st base last year. Is he the DH? If so what happens with Morel? Does he play 3rd or first? We all really have no idea what the FO plan is. It is very different if they believe Morel can play 3rd.