Article: Unsung Minor Leaguers: Porter Hodge

[Jason Ross]

Time to eat some crow: I predicted Porter Hodge as my breakout pitcher during the build-up to 2023. Things didn't go so well. All Hodge did was post an ERA over 5.00 and get a quick hook to the bullpen. So why am I doubling down on the tall, powerful righty in 2024? 

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The 2022 season went really well for Porter Hodge, a 13th-round selection in the 2019 draft. With a ridiculous ground-ball rate and good home-run prevention in 69 innings at Myrtle Beach, followed up with (seemingly) improved control in South Bend, 2023 was shaping up as a really strong year for the hard-throwing right-handed pitcher. It was enough that, as we entered the 2023 season, I predicted he'd end up being the breakout arm of the system. I wasn't alone, Geoff Pontes of Baseball America included Hodge in an article titled "20 Pitching Prospects I Think Could Break Out in 2023". The always-excellent Arizona Phil called him "probably the Cubs #1 pitching prospect", as well. There was some real buzz on the thrower. Sadly for Hodge (and for me and for Geoff and for Phil), 2023 didn't really work out the way it could have. 

The season was not a kind one right off the bat for the hurler. Hodge struggled in his first four starts, walking eight hitters over that span, and giving up 14 runs in under 14 innings pitched. Through June, there were peaks and valleys aplenty. One night, Hodge would throw five scoreless innings, striking out eight and walking only two. The next time out, he'd give up six runs. On June 14th, the 22-year-old made his last start of the season with Tennessee, and the Cubs began the transition to the bullpen. 

Initially, the change to the pen had mixed results as well, mirroring his time as a starter. In his first two innings as a reliever, Hodge struck out five, walked none (though he did hit someone) and gave up no runs. His next three and a third innings saw him walk five and give up three runs. Clearly, there was a bit of a learning curve as he continued to dial in the control. It really wasn't until the calendar flipped to August that something clicked within the flamethrowing reliever, but when it did, there seemed to be a fairly impressive change. Over his last 12 appearances, Hodge walked more than a single hitter only once (seven total free passes), to go along with 18 strikeouts, a 3.14 ERA, and a 3.41 FIP. The walks remained a bit high, but walking one hitter over two innings of work won't kill you out of the bullpen most of the time. 

Still, it'd be easy to look at the raw numbers and wonder what the big deal is. The answer is: it's the stuff, dummy. On the surface alone, Hodge's cutter (which averaged 93 MPH) was the second-fastest in Double A last year, but that's just the start of how interesting this pitch is. Hodge is unique. Standing an intimidating 6-foot-4, what sets him apart is that he throws literally over the top. According to an article on Baseball America, Hodge throws with a 12:00 tilt (that's perfectly over the top) and gets seven feet of extension. What does that mean? It might be the second-fastest cutter on average raw speed, but it looks much faster to the hitter. Extension is a real factor in determining the effectiveness of velocity and is becoming an important data point to look at. Not all 93s are made the same. Add in the four inches of horizontal run and what you have is a devastating cutter.

If all we had was the cutter, that'd be fine, and it would make him mildly interesting, but there's more here, too. Again, using data provided by RoboScout and Baseball America, his sweeper (viewed in the tweet above) is a truly plus-plus offering. He throws it a lot, and he throws it with authority, It showed the third-most horizontal movement of any slider in Double A, and while he tends to walk hitters, his slider actually gets thrown in the zone almost two-thirds of the time. He also gets chases out of the zone nearly 40 percent of the time, as well. A little tweak on the command here, and there's an amazing one-two punch of cutter-sweeper that would make Hodge a real weapon out of the bullpen. 

It was probably surprising to some when the Cubs protected Hodge from the Rule 5 Draft last month, but take a deeper look into his pitch characteristics and you can start to see why the Cubs were interested in keeping him around. If you're a team who has an open bullpen spot and you think you can work with his kind of stuff, you find room. While I expect him to start the season in Iowa, that he's already a member of the 40-man suggests to me that he will be someone on the call-up radar for the Cubs come midseason. The Cubs have done decent work recently in converting starters into relievers and cleaning up some of their walk issues (i.e., Luke Little and Daniel Palencia) and Hodge could follow suit. A cutter-sweeper combination is the foundation for a righty-righty nightmare. With a decent curveball in his back pocket as well, there's also enough here where he doesn't have to be limited to right-handed hitters only.

While it would be premature to say that Hodge will be eating valuable innings for the Cubs down the stretch in a playoff run, the kind of stuff Hodge has makes him a bit of a unicorn. He's tall. He releases the ball from such a weird position, gets excellent extension, and has the kind of movement profile you dream on. Would it be shocking to see the Cubs rein in the walk totals a little bit? Not really. And we know new manager Craig Counsell is someone who loves pitchers with stuff and isn't afraid of turning to younger arms.

Will Porter Hodge pitch for the Cubs in 2024? I'm doubling down on my prediction from last year. Do you agree with me? Or is this just another case of dreaming big on stuff that will never be controlled?

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[CubinNY]

If he can't throw strikes his stuff doesn't matter. 

[Outshined_One]

The stuff is there for him to be a dominant major leaguer, but he has the triple whammy of control problems, being a likely relief pitcher in the majors, and having a long line of guys ahead of him for spots in the pen in 2024.

Injuries happen and bullpens are weird, so it's possible, but, as far as my opinion goes, he's not a personal favorite at the moment.

[Jason Ross]

29 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

If he can't throw strikes his stuff doesn't matter. 

I think it's important to note...he throws strikes, especially with his slider. He throws his slider in the zone almost 67% of the time! And gets a 40% chase rate when he doesn't. With the vertical movement he has, this is a high wiff% pitch in and out of the zone. I think a lot of this can be a sequencing and pitch mix thing. More sliders early, more cutters (the pitch he loses a bit) later. Work backwards. Even if he misses on the slider early, the amount of chase he generates is going to give him extra padding. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

The stuff is there for him to be a dominant major leaguer, but he has the triple whammy of control problems, being a likely relief pitcher in the majors, and having a long line of guys ahead of him for spots in the pen in 2024.

Injuries happen and bullpens are weird, so it's possible, but, as far as my opinion goes, he's not a personal favorite at the moment.

Yeah, I don't think he's going to be an early-season call. But I also think the amount of arms ahead of him is a few less than it seems considering he's on the 40-man (as of today, at least). It's guys who are on the 40-man who get the quick-need calls and there's a situation where they need a BP arm quickly that could see Hodge get that call. 

I think he won't be trusted early. But with Counsell's usage (he prefers one inning usages in Milwaukee, never afraid to entrust young-guy-stuff) I can see a path where Hodge becomes more interesting than a Cuas, for example. Similar profiles (sweeper-cutter/fastball) profiles but the stuff on Hodge is just better.

Edited December 7, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Bertz]

Zoomer Michael Wuertz

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Zoomer Michael Wuertz

That's a name I forgot. I both enjoy remembering that name and hate that you're dating me here with that reference. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Zoomer Michael Wuertz

This is an amazing reference that reminds me of my own mortality, I love it and hate it.

 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

This is an amazing reference that reminds me of my own mortality, I love it and hate it.

 

Look one post above. Great minds, TT, great minds. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Start him in relief for a couple years and then work him into the rotation ala Corbin Burnes 

[Jason Ross]

30 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Start him in relief for a couple years and then work him into the rotation ala Corbin Burnes 

I don't hate that idea here. There's some parallels between the two. That's not saying he's Burnes 2.0 or anything, but he's got some of the aspects Burnes had.

[Outshined_One]

12 hours ago, Bertz said:

Zoomer Michael Wuertz

Another name I discounted way back in the day.

Points to you on the comp.