Article: Cubs Winter Top Prospects Rankings: #1 Pete Crow-Armstrong

[Jason Ross]

Pete Crow-Armstrong has been regarded as the Cubs' top prospect for the last two years. Making his debut in Chicago, and having a successful campaign in Double A and Triple A in 2023, when do we think PCA will permanently roam center in Chicago? And just what kind of a player is the brash center fielder?

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

2023 Season Review
Pete Crow-Armstrong entered the season with the hope of many that he may be able to make an impact at the highest level with the Cubs at some point. With strong defense and running, his path to Chicago was fairly clear as long as the bat continued progressing. The good news is that he did just that: he debuted with the Chicago Cubs in 2023. The bad news is that he didn't look particularly comfortable during his short stint with the team.

Starting his season in Tennessee, Crow-Armstrong got a hot start in 2023 in his first real taste of the level. The quick-footed PCA, hitting .316 with a 129 wRC+, showed why people were so high on him. However, he showed flaws in his game, such as his hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, walking just 3% of the time compared to a strikeout rate of over 22%. It's not that the K's were high, but his free-swinging nature was showing out a bit, causing his walk total to remain too low. Still, the hitter persevered and improved in this area while maintaining a strong offensive output. 

May saw his walk rate jump to 8% (though a dip in his wRC+ to 96), and a further lowering in his strikeout rate began to show that at least at the Double-A level, the flashy fielder was figuring things out on the other side of the diamond. June saw Crow-Armstrong take off and announce that maybe he was just done with Double A: walking 11% of the time now, posting an ISO north of .230 and with a 149 wRC+. By August 1st, it was time for promotion to the Cubs Triple-A affiliate in Iowa.

Iowa started similarly to Tennessee for PCA: a bunch of strikeouts in his first few games and a little walking, striking out seven times in only 18 plate appearances. This kind of struggle wouldn't last long. Pete's next 51 PAs saw him hit three home runs, four doubles, and a triple of a .353 batting average and a 173 wRC+. More importantly? Only ten strikeouts, coupled with nine walks. Crow-Armstrong would hit a few skids here or there, posting a -5 wRC+ from August 20th through the 29th, but finished relatively strongly over his last 11 games (though with increasingly worse strikeout numbers). Looking for a spark, he was called up to the Cubs for the final handful of weeks. 

Sadly, his call up was not the spark plug the Cubs hoped it may have been. With his electric speed and defense, seeing the brash youngster catch fire wouldn't have been surprising. Instead, over his 19 plate appearances with the Cubs, PCA went hitless, striking out seven times and being caught stealing twice out of four attempts. It was kind of a disappointing run. Frankly, I think it was good for him...

2024 Season Outlook and ETA
Where Pete Crow-Armstrong starts will be up for debate over the next few months. As of the writing of this article, the Cubs only have Mike Tauchman ahead of PCA on the center field depth chart. While Tauchman had some initial magic, he struggled to the tune of a sub-90 wRC+ over his last ~170 plate appearances. The Cubs could allow auchman to play "caretaker" of the position for the first month while Pete Crow-Armstrong readjusts in Iowa. There's no rush on PCA, and his first 19 PAs showed that he still probably has something to learn, even if it's simply a little humility. But for someone with as much confidence in himself, as PCA does, it was probably good to get knocked down a bit, as it should force him to reevaluate some of the things he can work on (namely, his plate approach). 

Craig Counsell's hiring for the managerial position may also affect this choice; Counsell was no stranger to playing rookies in Milwaukee (Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, to name a few) in important roles. He also was fearless in playing defensive first players (such as Turang and Jace Peterson). It wouldn't be crazy to think Counsell's pick would be the defensively near-elite Pete Crow-Armstrong based on his history. 

The Cubs may also re-sign someone like Cody Bellinger, who won the 2023 NL Comeback Player of the Year award. While Bellinger would be able to slide over to first base if/when the cocky kid was ready, it would be probable that he would start in center while PCA got some extra time in Iowa.

How good is Pete Crow-Armstrong, and why is he in the number one slot? The first reason is his floor. Playing a premium position, providing excellent defense, and being a demon on the bases give PCA one of the easiest paths to two wins I've seen out of a prospect. Dalton Varsho, in 2023, posted an 85 wRC+ (.220/.285/.389 slash) but was still worth 2.1 fWAR because he was a +2.8 on the bases and +18 DRS in CF. Brenton Doyle was the worst-hitting center fielder in baseball with a horrible 43(!!) wRC+ but led the league in DRS for center fielders and was worth a whole win. All the Cubs' top prospect has to do is match Varsho with the bat, and he's a pretty near a lock for two wins. 

But what's the ceiling? That's a more complicated question. The reality is that there are a lot of outcomes here. If PCA controls the zone with the bat, settles down the approach, and allows the game to come to him just a little more, there's genuinely a 5+ WAR player here. He's got 20+ home run power and the swing to provide it; he has excellent bat-to-ball skills, and combined with the things we know he's good at (speed and defense), he could become a multiple All-Star. But if the approach isn't fixed and lags, that two-win floor might be where he settles in. He's our top prospect because he offers a unique combination of floor and ceiling, but he is not without fault. Regardless, there's a chance that the Crow-Armstrong for Javier Baez trade in the summer of 2021 becomes the Mets version of Lou Brock, and while that may not happen, it's really fun to dream it, isn't it?

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[Outshined_One]

It's fun to dream...but man, that callup added doubts I sincerely didn't want to have about PCA. His entire stint was reminiscent of Bad Javy Baez, from clueless plate appearances to TOOTBLANs. Granted, Javy is one of my all time favorites and I love the guy to pieces, and it was sincerely unfair of the Cubs to hotshot PCA's callup into a massive pressure situation in the midst of a historic collapse, but it ended up being a really bad outcome for PCA.

He's still my #1 guy on the farm and a legitimate Top 20 prospect in MLB. The potential is unquestionably there and we saw him flourish in the minors. However, I also don't want the Cubs (or PCA, for that matter) to assume that he'll be the opening day CF in 2024. It's a bit of a conundrum, given that the Cubs should see him as a key contributor in 2024, but I get the sense he's also the type who would benefit from having to prove himself in Spring Training and/or AAA next season.

[CubinNY]

The Cubs must find a way to let him break into the league. I've been thinking about this since Ross got canned. I believe one the major reasons Ross was fired was because he couldn't/wouldn't let the rookies play while they were trying to compete for a playoff spot. I don't think they would have retained him regardless after this year. 

I don't know what kind of player he's going to be, but I love how aggressively he plays the game. He's going to have to learn to manage the strike zone and swing for the middle of the field though.

I'm cautiously optimistic he will be a very good MLB player, maybe not a superstar though. 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

It's fun to dream...but man, that callup added doubts I sincerely didn't want to have about PCA. His entire stint was reminiscent of Bad Javy Baez, from clueless plate appearances to TOOTBLANs. Granted, Javy is one of my all time favorites and I love the guy to pieces, and it was sincerely unfair of the Cubs to hotshot PCA's callup into a massive pressure situation in the midst of a historic collapse, but it ended up being a really bad outcome for PCA.

He's still my #1 guy on the farm and a legitimate Top 20 prospect in MLB. The potential is unquestionably there and we saw him flourish in the minors. However, I also don't want the Cubs (or PCA, for that matter) to assume that he'll be the opening day CF in 2024. It's a bit of a conundrum, given that the Cubs should see him as a key contributor in 2024, but I get the sense he's also the type who would benefit from having to prove himself in Spring Training and/or AAA next season.

I wouldn't let 19 bad plate appearances ruin anything. The best players in the world struggle for 19 PA's, let alone a kid under 22, making his debut during a playoff race. If most players get 4 plate appearances a game, that's like, 5 games. Shohei Ohtani, for example, had 18 PA's where he had a negative wRC+, one hit and struck out 40% of the time. Not saying PCA is anywhere near the player Ohtani is, only that, bad small samples exist for anyone. Sometimes they happen at the start, or in the middle. And many times young kids struggle upon their first few games, especially if they have added pressure. 

I think if you had doubts on PCA before those first 19 PCA's, you should have them. If you didn't don't trick yourself into extra worry, either, if that makes sense. I'd say the same thing if he hit .700 with 8 home runs in those 19 PA's.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

The Cubs must find a way to let him break into the league. I've been thinking about this since Ross got canned. I believe one the major reasons Ross was fired was because he couldn't/wouldn't let the rookies play while they were trying to compete for a playoff spot. I don't think they would have retained him regardless after this year. 

I don't know what kind of player he's going to be, but I love how aggressively he plays the game. He's going to have to learn to manage the strike zone and swing for the middle of the field though.

I'm cautiously optimistic he will be a very good MLB player, maybe not a superstar though. 

Yeah, PCA is a blast. In many ways, I could see him being a Cubs-version of Ryan Braun (hopefully without the steroid scandal!). That guy who's really good for the Cubs but if you're anyone else, you really kind of hate that jerk. He's loud. He' fun. I think getting his ass kicked for a few weeks in the MLB will be good for him...he needed a little humbling. 

I think a Kevin Keirmaier kind of career sounds like a good "mid-ground" for what he can become. He'll hit 20 home runs, provide excellent defense and every so often put up 4 wins.

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think if you had doubts on PCA before those first 19 PCA's, you should have them. If you didn't don't trick yourself into extra worry, either, if that makes sense. I'd say the same thing if he hit .700 with 8 home runs in those 19 PA's.

It's more that those 19 PAs served as corroboration (but not confirmation!) of my existing doubts. We've seen plenty of guys go through equally bad stretches and lots of guys who later thrived despite initially bad callups, and I expect PCA will inevitably join those groups, but it's sincerely annoying to see it happen.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

It's more that those 19 PAs served as corroboration (but not confirmation!) of my existing doubts. We've seen plenty of guys go through equally bad stretches and lots of guys who later thrived despite initially bad callups, and I expect PCA will inevitably join those groups, but it's sincerely annoying to see it happen.

Oh, for sure. It's always the risk with the young, brash, hotshot like PCA. He's just cocky enough to where the importance of the situation may just not occur to him so he just goes out and is an absolute monster, or, he gets exposed like he did. I'm hoping it's a good moment for him to learn.

[Bertz]

19 plate appearances is a weekend. It's nothing, and he was clearly pressing super hard to impress in his limited looks.  Like he could certainly fail but his cup of coffee was completely meaningless IMO.

The thing about Pete is the bar is on the floor for him offensively.  He's probably a +10 defender or better in CF.  And while he ran the bases like a nincompoop during his September callup I'd guess with his speed even if he is overly aggressive he'll be a + baserunner.  Kevin Keirmaier is the obvious analog.  We're hoping for more power and more durability  but broadly that's the archetype.

KK has been worth 3.3 WAR/600 plate appearances over the last three years as a league average hitter.  So while he and PCA aren't perfect parallels outside of the box it shows that Pete can be 10ish runs worse than an average hitter over the course of a season and still be a starting caliber player.  For reference, that -10 runs equates to a wRC+ in the mid 80s. 

So like PCA is so overwhelming of a defender he can legitimately hit like a backup catcher and still be a positive contributor on an everyday basis.  I'm not especially worried about him being a backup catcher on offense though.  Even if his approach is abysmal he'll have the speed to run decent BAs and the power to crush enough mistakes to put up quality slugging numbers.  Think someone like Adolis Garcia or early career Javy.

The upside is massive.  Generally after a bit of an adjustment period at each level Pete began running normal K/BB rates.  If he has e.g. his AA plate discipline numbers in the long term hes probably a 120 wRC+ kind of guy.  And that with his Kevin Keirmaier starter kit outside the batters box is a 5-6 win superstar. 

If we land Ohtani or Soto, I 1000% give Pete CF right from opening day.  If Jed has to settle for something more disappointing like Rhys Hoskins and Jeimer Candelario I still probably give CF to PCA right away but I could be convinced to give him a little more seasoning in AAA first.

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

19 plate appearances is a weekend. It's nothing, and he was clearly pressing super hard to impress in his limited looks.  Like he could certainly fail but his cup of coffee was completely meaningless IMO.

The thing about Pete is the bar is on the floor for him offensively.  He's probably a +10 defender or better in CF.  And while he ran the bases like a nincompoop during his September callup I'd guess with his speed even if he is overly aggressive he'll be a + baserunner.  Kevin Keirmaier is the obvious analog.  We're hoping for more power and more durability  but broadly that's the archetype.

KK has been worth 3.3 WAR/600 plate appearances over the last three years as a league average hitter.  So while he and PCA aren't perfect parallels outside of the box it shows that Pete can be 10ish runs worse than an average hitter over the course of a season and still be a starting caliber player.  For reference, that -10 runs equates to a wRC+ in the mid 80s. 

So like PCA is so overwhelming of a defender he can legitimately hit like a backup catcher and still be a positive contributor on an everyday basis.  I'm not especially worried about him being a backup catcher on offense though.  Even if his approach is abysmal he'll have the speed to run decent BAs and the power to crush enough mistakes to put up quality slugging numbers.  Think someone like Adolis Garcia or early career Javy.

The upside is massive.  Generally after a bit of an adjustment period at each level Pete began running normal K/BB rates.  If he has e.g. his AA plate discipline numbers in the long term hes probably a 120 wRC+ kind of guy.  And that with his Kevin Keirmaier starter kit outside the batters box is a 5-6 win superstar. 

If we land Ohtani or Soto, I 1000% give Pete CF right from opening day.  If Jed has to settle for something more disappointing like Rhys Hoskins and Jeimer Candelario I still probably give CF to PCA right away but I could be convinced to give him a little more seasoning in AAA first.

Yeah, I don't agree with this assessment at all. He's going to play 80 games in Wrigley, the easiest place to play CF in the majors. He has to hit. They don't have enough thump in their lineup to have a 1970s SS manning CF. I don't care what the advanced metrics say. Saving runs is not the same as scoring runs. 

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Yeah, I don't agree with this assessment at all. He's going to play 80 games in Wrigley, the easiest place to play CF in the majors. He has to hit. They don't have enough thump in their lineup to have a 1970s SS manning CF. I don't care what the advanced metrics say. Saving runs is not the same as scoring runs. 

I think we have to remember that there's a reason teams run on advanced metrics now a days. It's hard to fathom a run saved=a run earned with how many more offensive opportunities players seemingly have but strong analytical teams who generally overplay their talent levels are doing so with much of this as a basis. Teams like Milwaukee and Cleveland have made livings on strong defensive teams (obviously with strong pitching, as well, it's not just defense) with much poorer offenses. Regardless of whether the Cubs play half of their games in Wrigley Field, defense remains a factor (I also think the "easy" of Wrigley Field gets over blown). I don't think t's a coincidence that the Cubs have a "type" when it comes to players up the middle (athletic and strong defensively). They are also aware of their field and how it functions. 

PCA has to hit some but he doesn't have to really hit that well. He can't be Brenton Doyle horsefeathers with the bat of like, a 43 wRC+ (but then again, almost no one is Brenton Doyle bad with the bat). But a .230/.280/.390 line matches Varsho's and he was worth 2 fWAR because of his speed/defense. If Pete Crow-Armstrong hits, even CF league average (98 wRC+) we're talking about a 3.5 win player. If he's a 110 wRC+ hitter, he's 4.5 win player. As long as he can avoid being epically awful, he's pretty much a lock to be useful. It might not be a "pretty" kind of fun at the plate, but his usefulness will remain.

Edited November 30, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Guest234]

Will he be as good as Billy Hamilton?

[Jason Ross]

7 hours ago, Guest234 said:

Will he be as good as Billy Hamilton?

I think he has a far more stable foundation that Hamilton. There's questions on Pete Crow-Armstrong's total bat, but his offensive ability right now is at least a standard deviation better than Hamilton (and that's being cautious on the downside. If PCA is ~95 wRC+ hitter, or a league average center fielder at the plate, he'd be much better of a hitter, and if he's better then that...well you can see where I'm going), who is a career 66 wRC+ hitter, has 24 career home runs (a number Pete Crow-Armstrong could legitimately match in a year), and his best season was that of a 78 wRC+. I don't think PCA will add as much on the bases (though, still could be a terror), but overall, think he's a far more complete baseball player.

Edited December 1, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[craig]

The Varsho analogy is good.  That might be what he turns into.  Defense is valuable everywhere for sure; but I think NY's note is legit, that he won't save as many runs in Wrigely as he could in a bigger field.  The Kiermaier analogy is also good, although that's not as automatic/floor as we might think.  Kiermaier has career OPS+ of 98, with a bunch of seasons as an above-average offensive player to go with his defense.  Who knows with PCA longterm, or short.  I'm sure hoping he eventually develops into a pretty solid, good offensive player.  Maybe even a very good hitter, an asset both ways?  That's why he's #1 prospect, he might hit.  But for sure there is risk that he'll always be a lineup liability.  I hope he's not kinda Jason Heyward, a liability in the lineup most years.  (Jason's Cubs OPS+ were 84-94-100-129 [Covid]-69-59.)