College Football - Week 13 (Nov. 25)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

15 minutes ago, Andy said:

Looks like Elko to A&M. That sucks ass for Duke but he was always the obvious move.

Perfect move.  Get the guy who averages 8 wins a year to go to the school that averages 8 wins a year and then have everyone be furious at him 3 years later when he averages 8 wins a year.

[soccer10k]

30 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I f Alabama beats Georgia, I think they have a strong case to be in, objectively. There is no transitive property scenario. 
 

Except this isn’t the transitive property. It would be two teams with similar resumes, both 12-1 and both conference champions. And one of them went to the other’s stadium and won convincingly. If it comes down to Texas or Bama, the choice should be very easy.

[Andy]

27 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Except this isn’t the transitive property. It would be two teams with similar resumes, both 12-1 and both conference champions. And one of them went to the other’s stadium and won convincingly. If it comes down to Texas or Bama, the choice should be very easy.

I think there's a good chance Bama would win a rematch, but this is absolutely right. If the biggest non conference result of the year can be ignored because "eye test" then everyone should just cancel every notable OOC series they have scheduled.

[UMFan83]

Unlike the last couple of seasons there feels like so many possibilities heading into the final week.
 

The most interesting variable is Florida State. While the committee claims the injury didn’t factor into their evaluation last week, I feel like the close win over a 5-6 team (albeit a road rivalry game), the Louisville loss last week, and a ugly win over Louisville this weekend may put them in a position to actually be left out as an undefeated conference champion. I still think it’s more likely than not the committee doesn’t have the balls to actually do it but it’s a possibility. 
 

The 1 loss teams are unusually strong this year. Feel like you can argue that a 1 loss Texas who won at Alabama this year and lost at the last second in a neutral rivalry game has a case over FSU without Travis. Washington if they lose has a strong case. Georgia if they lose to Alabama has a strong case. A lot of variables out there.  
 

You could even see a situation where the SEC is left out if Michigan, Washington, FSU and Texas all win along with a Bama win. And unlike last year when I felt Michigan was in regardless of how they did against Purdue, I definitely won’t feel safe at all if they lost to Iowa pending other results. 
 

The last year of a 4 team playoff and there’s a lot to be excited about.

[Andy]

I don't think there's any chance 13-0 FSU would get left out but I think their ceiling is #4 barring mass chaos.

I don't think there's a single team that's safe with a loss this weekend, which is a refreshing change.

[Derwood]

36 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

 

And unlike last year when I felt Michigan was in regardless of how they did against Purdue, I definitely won’t feel safe at all if they lost to Iowa pending other results. 

 

 

Then you have "Ohio State has a 'better loss' than Michigan" argument

[soccer10k]

48 minutes ago, Andy said:

I don't think there's any chance 13-0 FSU would get left out but I think their ceiling is #4 barring mass chaos.

I don't think there's a single team that's safe with a loss this weekend, which is a refreshing change.

There is precedent for that. The year after their title FSU had a ton of close wins but stayed undefeated. That team was ranked 3rd behind a pair of 1 loss teams.

[Old Style]

4 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Perfect move.  Get the guy who averages 8 wins a year to go to the school that averages 8 wins a year and then have everyone be furious at him 3 years later when he averages 8 wins a year.

To be fair he was coaching at Duke so 8-9 wins  there is pretty damn impressive. Plus he was at A&M as DC for two years before getting the Duke job. 

[I owned a Suzuki]

If Alabama, Texas, Florida St, Michigan and Washington win....who is getting left out?  I think it would be hard to rationalize Georgia in over any of those teams.  3 Unbeaten conference champions and Alabama or Texas?  Could they possibly exclude the SEC?  I honestly think it would be FSU because the committee has an out(hurt QB) if this happens.  

If Alabama beats Georgia and Oregon beats Washington  1 loss Oregon, OSU, Georgia and Washington in a "fantasy 4 game playoff" would better than the actual final 4 last year

[Ding Dong Johnson]

10 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

If Alabama beats Georgia and Oregon beats Washington  1 loss Oregon, OSU, Georgia and Washington in a "fantasy 4 game playoff" would better than the actual final 4 last year

That would be a better final 4 than this year as well.

[soccer10k]

58 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

If Alabama, Texas, Florida St, Michigan and Washington win....who is getting left out?  I think it would be hard to rationalize Georgia in over any of those teams.  3 Unbeaten conference champions and Alabama or Texas?  Could they possibly exclude the SEC?  I honestly think it would be FSU because the committee has an out(hurt QB) if this happens.  

If Alabama beats Georgia and Oregon beats Washington  1 loss Oregon, OSU, Georgia and Washington in a "fantasy 4 game playoff" would better than the actual final 4 last year

Texas gets the 4th spot in that scenario.

[I owned a Suzuki]

1 hour ago, soccer10k said:

Texas gets the 4th spot in that scenario.

But who gets 1,2 and 3?

 

 

[soccer10k]

29 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

But who gets 1,2 and 3?

 

 

All the undefeated are in with wins. So it would probably be Michigan, Washington and then Texas/FSU at 3 and 4 in some order.

Sorry if it wasn’t clear what I meant it was in your first scenario.

[UMFan83]

 

3 hours ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

If Alabama, Texas, Florida St, Michigan and Washington win....who is getting left out?  I think it would be hard to rationalize Georgia in over any of those teams.  3 Unbeaten conference champions and Alabama or Texas?  Could they possibly exclude the SEC?  I honestly think it would be FSU because the committee has an out(hurt QB) if this happens.  

If Alabama beats Georgia and Oregon beats Washington  1 loss Oregon, OSU, Georgia and Washington in a "fantasy 4 game playoff" would better than the actual final 4 last year

This is my favorite scenario by far, as it is guaranteed to cause controversy no matter what. 

Alabama Pros: 

1. SEC champion, which has never been left out

2. Neutral site win over CFP number 1 team

3. Won the 3 non-Texas ranked games by 2+ scores

Alabama Cons:

1. Lost to another team in the mix for the CFP at home

2. Lagging behind in computer rankings (8th in SP+), haven't passed the eye test in many games

 

Georgia Pros:

1. Has won last 2 national titles and 30 straight games (I know that only this year should matter to the committee but everyone knows it)

2. Top 3 in virtually every computer ranking

3. Destroyed Kentucky, Ole Miss and Tennessee, also beat Mizzou in closer game

4. Is currently number 1 in the rankings, meaning they'd slide from 1 to at least 5 with a loss, not sure if that matters at all, but for reference TCU lost their conference championship game and remained 3rd last year, though I suppose were not a ton of other options since UGA and UM were undefeated and TCU and OSU were the only 1 loss teams.  But neither was a conference champion so you could argue that OSU should have lept them.

Georgia Cons:

1. Non-conference champion

2. Lost to another team in the mix for the CFP, who is a conference champion

3. Several sluggish wins over teams they should have destroyed

 

Texas Pros:

1. Conference champion

2. Beat another top 5 or better team on the road

3. Falls between Georgia and Alabama in most computer rankings

Texas Cons:

1. Worst loss of the 3 teams (though it was a neutral loss to the number 12 team)

2. Schedule strength is pretty weak outside of Bama and Oklahoma, and hurts them that they are playing a borderline top 25 team in the title game.  They were 2-1 against  current top 25 teams, with the Bama road win, a narrow win over #19 Kansas State and the loss to Oklahoma.  Oklahoma state would be a 3rd win over ranked team if they stay ranked after losing (they're 20th right now)

3. A lot of narrow wins over meh teams down the stretch until they destroyed TTU

 

Honestly, I know Texas has the ultimate trump card by beating Alabama, but I think their argument is not super strong outside of that and the committee has ignored head to head results in the past for teams with similar resumes (I think?).  I just can't see them leaving the SEC out and my guess is they would put in Alabama.

Edited November 27, 2023 by UMFan83

[I owned a Suzuki]

2 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

 

This is my favorite scenario by far, as it is guaranteed to cause controversy no matter what. 

Alabama Pros: 

1. SEC champion, which has never been left out

2. Neutral site win over CFP number 1 team

3. Won the 3 non-Texas ranked games by 2+ scores

Alabama Cons:

1. Lost to another team in the mix for the CFP at home

2. Lagging behind in computer rankings (8th in SP+), haven't passed the eye test in many games

 

Georgia Pros:

1. Has won last 2 national titles and 30 straight games (I know that only this year should matter to the committee but everyone knows it)

2. Top 3 in virtually every computer ranking

3. Destroyed Kentucky, Ole Miss and Tennessee, also beat Mizzou in closer game

4. Is currently number 1 in the rankings, meaning they'd slide from 1 to at least 5 with a loss, not sure if that matters at all, but for reference TCU lost their conference championship game and remained 3rd last year, though I suppose were not a ton of other options since UGA and UM were undefeated and TCU and OSU were the only 1 loss teams.  But neither was a conference champion so you could argue that OSU should have lept them.

Georgia Cons:

1. Non-conference champion

2. Lost to another team in the mix for the CFP, who is a conference champion

3. Several sluggish wins over teams they should have destroyed

 

Texas Pros:

1. Conference champion

2. Beat another top 5 or better team on the road

3. Falls between Georgia and Alabama in most computer rankings

Texas Cons:

1. Worst loss of the 3 teams (though it was a neutral loss to the number 12 team)

2. Schedule strength is pretty weak outside of Bama and Oklahoma, and hurts them that they are playing a borderline top 25 team in the title game.  They were 2-1 against  current top 25 teams, with the Bama road win, a narrow win over #19 Kansas State and the loss to Oklahoma.  Oklahoma state would be a 3rd win over ranked team if they stay ranked after losing (they're 20th right now)

3. A lot of narrow wins over meh teams down the stretch until they destroyed TTU

 

Honestly, I know Texas has the ultimate trump card by beating Alabama, but I think their argument is not super strong outside of that and the committee has ignored head to head results in the past for teams with similar resumes (I think?).  I just can't see them leaving the SEC out and my guess is they would put in Alabama.

good analysis.  I think if this happens Texas and Alabama make it in...Georgia and FSU are left out

[soccer10k]

7 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Honestly, I know Texas has the ultimate trump card by beating Alabama, but I think their argument is not super strong outside of that and the committee has ignored head to head results in the past for teams with similar resumes (I think?).  I just can't see them leaving the SEC out and my guess is they would put in Alabama.

Have they ignored H2H before where the resumes were this similar? In 2016 Penn St went 11-2, won the Big 10 and beat Ohio State by 3 at home. But they also lost to an 8-4 Pittsburgh and lost to Michigan 49-10. Ohio State also won at a 10-2 Oklahoma by 21. Those resumes are not that similar. I'm not sure if there were other instances but I remembered something along those lines happening and was able to look it up.

It is the ultimate trump card for Texas. They went to Alabama and controlled that game. They trailed for just over a minute at a place that nobody ever wins. If you just lined up the games, Bama's probably got a better resume.  But it's not so much better that we can just ignore H2H. It's not like Bama lost to a team from a non-power 5 where the conference slate doesn't match up.