C+C Losing Factory (Thursday on Prime)

[Rex Buckingham]

One major point is that there was opportunity in each of the last 2 FA classes to acquire DL help, and Poles basically went bargain hunting. Billings has been good, but Justin Jones, Demarcus Walker, Rasheem Green, Al-Quadin Muhammad, Ngakoue and whoever else have provided little value overall on a VERY bad DL. 

He traded a great linebacker because he didn't want to pay him market value - not unreasonable. But then he went out and signed another linebacker to top of the market value! Roquan has $3.2M more in total guarantees according to https://overthecap.com/position/linebacker

I like Gordon and Wright. Brisker is ok, Stevenson might be fine, Scott has some potential as a 3rd/4th WR, Braxton Jones is fine for a late round tackle, Dexter has shown potential and Pickens might be good depth. Bagent is a solid backup QB find as an UDFA. Roschon Johnson is a fine RB. Getting DJ Moore and the Panthers 1 this year was a good deal.

There is nothing else I would say positive (and a lot of that was hardly positive) about Poles' draft pick usage. The deal for Sweat is neutral at best right now.

[Bearded_Beef]

8 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

One major point is that there was opportunity in each of the last 2 FA classes to acquire DL help, and Poles basically went bargain hunting. Billings has been good, but Justin Jones, Demarcus Walker, Rasheem Green, Al-Quadin Muhammad, Ngakoue and whoever else have provided little value overall on a VERY bad DL. 

He traded a great linebacker because he didn't want to pay him market value - not unreasonable. But then he went out and signed another linebacker to top of the market value! Roquan has $3.2M more in total guarantees according to https://overthecap.com/position/linebacker

I like Gordon and Wright. Brisker is ok, Stevenson might be fine, Scott has some potential as a 3rd/4th WR, Braxton Jones is fine for a late round tackle, Dexter has shown potential and Pickens might be good depth. Bagent is a solid backup QB find as an UDFA. Roschon Johnson is a fine RB. Getting DJ Moore and the Panthers 1 this year was a good deal.

There is nothing else I would say positive (and a lot of that was hardly positive) about Poles' draft pick usage. The deal for Sweat is neutral at best right now.

Other than skipping over Wright, I think this is a pretty reasonable post.  I guess I had less of a problem going bargain hunting and not saddling us with bad contracts than you.  I'd rather take chances in the draft and get guys like Sweat who are more of a sure thing.  Who would you have signed at DL?

Poles had been pretty clear that he thought Edmunds fit the scheme better.  I'm excited to see what he does with an improved D-Line.  I still think its too early to judge how that one has worked out, but I certainly haven't felt like Roquan would've been that much better.  We can blame Poles for Roquan, but Roquan had the same problem with Pace too.  I do think he was probably a bit of a diva

Edited November 10, 2023 by Bearded_Beef

[Hairyducked Idiot]

"I like that we've been avoiding bad contracts by buying free agents."

"Man, extending Sweat to the exact deal he would have gotten in free agency was such a savvy move."

That's how you can tell someone is just looking to feel good about whatever the Bears do and not actually hold them to any sort of consistent standard.

[UMFan83]

Some PFF grades

 

[Bearded_Beef]

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

"I like that we've been avoiding bad contracts by buying free agents."

"Man, extending Sweat to the exact deal he would have gotten in free agency was such a savvy move."

That's how you can tell someone is just looking to feel good about whatever the Bears do and not actually hold them to any sort of consistent standard.

You sure do make a lot of assumptions for someone who considers themselves "astute".  That's just terrible deduction.

I'm not so sure Sweat would've been available this year, so the pick was necessary.  And I don't think that contract saddles us like, say, Macks did.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

10 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Some PFF grades

 

I would like to point out that even when they agree with me about things like Montez Sweat being nothing special, I still place absolutely zero value on PFF grades

[WrigleyField 22]

10 minutes ago, Bearded_Beef said:

I'm not so sure Sweat would've been available this year, so the pick was necessary.  And I don't think that contract saddles us like, say, Macks did.

Man, I'm not sure you can make more a vibes statement than that.  Once we see where that pick 2 lands, the total value of both those moves (draft capital + extension) are not gonna be magnitudes of difference.

 

Plus Mack deal never really hamstrung them.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

11 minutes ago, Bearded_Beef said:

You sure do make a lot of assumptions for someone who considers themselves "astute".  That's just terrible deduction.

I'm not so sure Sweat would've been available this year, so the pick was necessary.  And I don't think that contract saddles us like, say, Macks did.

If he wasn't available this offseason, then we live without him.  Paying whatever it takes to fill holes without regard for value is *exactly* how Pace ended up where he did.

[raw]

2 hours ago, Bearded_Beef said:

You know, this team is bad enough that you don't have to struggle so hard to be a sourpuss about them.  The defense is looking good, even better with Sweat (go figure).  Poles has made some really good moves and has had a couple of mistakes.  Particularly Velus and Claypool.  This team is looking better, and we still have a lot of resources and draft picks upcoming.  I am excited to see what Fields looks like when he comes back.  He was looking better before the injury and the o-line seems like its improved since then.

"A couple mistakes" seems to "Yada yada" over the fact he destroyed a pivotal (maybe THE most pivotal) year of his QBs development by giving him nothing to work with and incompetent coaching last year. 

I do acknowledge the good moves as well. I like the boldness of the Claypool and Sweat trades. But at the same time, I agree with jersey that there's no reason to trust him to run the team in the right direction. But I am more willing to acknowledge the faults of Fields and accept if Flus was pushed on him by ownership and would be OK with giving him another chance, but I'd just as soon bring in a new GM with a coach and QB all on the same timeline for the first time in franchise history.

[We Got The Whole 9]

20 minutes ago, Bearded_Beef said:

Other than skipping over Wright, I think this is a pretty reasonable post.  I guess I had less of a problem going bargain hunting and not saddling us with bad contracts than you.  I'd rather take chances in the draft and get guys like Sweat who are more of a sure thing.  Who would you have signed at DL?

Poles had been pretty clear that he thought Edmunds fit the scheme better.  I'm excited to see what he does with an improved D-Line.  I still think its too early to judge how that one has worked out, but I certainly haven't felt like Roquan would've been that much better.  We can blame Poles for Roquan, but Roquan had the same problem with Pace too.  I do think he was probably a bit of a diva

You keep saying saddling us with bad contracts as if every other option in FA was going to be a terrible, crippling contract. So many media outlets had us as a good fit for Hargrave and we said no thanks. Don't you think it would have been a good start to putting a good DL in front of Tremaine Edmunds to sign Hargrave? Tremaine Edmunds was given 50M guaranteed and he has a 53 PFF score and 1 pick this season. He's doing nothing and Poles did very little to help him, besides the Billings signing, which has turned out to be a solid bargain dive.  

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just now, WrigleyField 22 said:

Man, I'm not sure you can make more a vibes statement than that.  Once we see where that pick 2 lands, the total value of both those moves (draft capital + extension) are not gonna be magnitudes of difference.

 

Plus Mack deal never really hamstrung them.

It sure didn't help.  All that draft capital for the privelege of making him the highest-paid defensive player in the league.

I don't mind extreme ineffiicency when you think you're close and are trying to win right away and are willing to accept a hit further down the road, but that's what the Mack deal was.

[BigSlick]

Poles has been up and down and that includes some significant ups. There are difference makers from these drafts: Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker have played really well. Darnell Wright is a stud. There are other role players that have played well: Roschon Johnson is playing well in limited playing time, Braxton Jones has played shockingly well for a 5th round pick and Tyler Scott has been integrated more into the offense. 

Dexter and Pickens both played well yesterday, though they've been fairly invisible so far this year. I'm more positive on Tyrique Stevenson than many, though he's made some mistakes, I like a lot of what I've seen. It's simply not all bad. The early returns on Sweat are good. Andrew Billings has played well. 

You can respond and say a lot of those guys aren't difference makers, they're just guys. Well, yeah, maybe - but you need a lot of guys who can do their jobs to have a good football team. That may not be good enough, you probably need more clear star players. But it simply hasn't been all bad. 

[Bearded_Beef]

2 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I would like to point out that even when they agree with me about things like Montez Sweat being nothing special, I still place absolutely zero value on PFF grades

Right, because then you'd have to acknowledge how wrong you might be on Gordon.

 

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

If he wasn't available this offseason, then we live without him.  Paying whatever it takes to fill holes without regard for value is *exactly* how Pace ended up where he did.

*Paying what it reasonably takes to get a guy that you and your scouts really like*

I get that you don't value Sweat very much though.  You've definitely made that clear

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Kyler Gordon is a really bad corner who, if I were a team with a half-decent QB, would be my target on every key third down and red zone play if I were against the Bears and needed tow in.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

8 minutes ago, Bearded_Beef said:

Right, because then you'd have to acknowledge how wrong you might be on Gordon.

 

*Paying what it reasonably takes to get a guy that you and your scouts really like*

I get that you don't value Sweat very much though.  You've definitely made that clear

No, because PFF grades are a block box with no way to check or re-test them in any way.  They are pure pseudo-science, designed to fool people into thinking they are serious analysis because they have a decimal.

I said that yesterday, I said it today, and I'll say it tomorrow.  I will change that opinion if they ever produce solid evidence that their grading system is useful.  I will not change that opinion based on the whims of whether they agree with me or not on any specific point.

With regard to Sweat, I think he's an above-average end.  The fact that you think it's "clear" that I don't think he's valuable is a testament to your poor observational skills.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Bearded_Beef]

6 minutes ago, raw said:

"A couple mistakes" seems to "Yada yada" over the fact he destroyed a pivotal (maybe THE most pivotal) year of his QBs development by giving him nothing to work with and incompetent coaching last year. 

I do acknowledge the good moves as well. I like the boldness of the Claypool and Sweat trades. But at the same time, I agree with jersey that there's no reason to trust him to run the team in the right direction. But I am more willing to acknowledge the faults of Fields and accept if Flus was pushed on him by ownership and would be OK with giving him another chance, but I'd just as soon bring in a new GM with a coach and QB all on the same timeline for the first time in franchise history.

This is all very fair tbh.  Those are fair criticisms and the idea of bringing in a whole staff together has some debatable merit.  I personally don't think that Poles destroyed Fields, but I definitely can understand that pov.

[raw]

7 minutes ago, Bearded_Beef said:

This is all very fair tbh.  Those are fair criticisms and the idea of bringing in a whole staff together has some debatable merit.  I personally don't think that Poles destroyed Fields, but I definitely can understand that pov.

I wasn't trying to say he destroyed Fields. It is what it is. Fields may have been not good enough either way. I'm just saying that Poles didn't help him. And Poles acknowledged as much by the Claypool and DJ Moore trades and the Wright pick.

But individual moves, good or bad, don't really determine how a GM is doing. You can list all the good, bad and indifferent moves and none of it matters if the team doesn't win. And the team doesn't win unless it has a QB. So, it's my opinion that a GM needs to put his QB in the best spot to succeed, first and foremost. Maybe Poles feels the need to build a well rounded 53, but that will always sway my opinion on the job he's doing. And I won't need it to sway me long because they'll either be the 2006/2018 Bears for a short time or compete for 25 years like the Patriots, Packers, and Steelers based on the QB position.

[Bearded_Beef]

3 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

With regard to Sweat, I think he's an above-average end.  The fact that you think it's "clear" that I don't think he's valuable is a testament to your poor observational skills.

Thats not what I said though, Kyle.  I said that you don't "value him very much".  I have yet to see anything to the contrary either.  I don't think it's my observational skills and maybe a communication issue.  I can't remember reading a single positive thing that you've said about him or the deal.  I am sure that I could have missed something, but I certainly haven't missed how hyper critical you have been of him and the deal.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 minute ago, Bearded_Beef said:

Thats not what I said though, Kyle.  I said that you don't "value him very much".  I have yet to see anything to the contrary either.  I don't think it's my observational skills and maybe a communication issue.  I can't remember reading a single positive thing that you've said about him or the deal.  I am sure that I could have missed something, but I certainly haven't missed how hyper critical you have been of him and the deal.

You don't consider "he's an above-average DE" to be a good thing? Because I've said that multiple times in posts targeted directly at you.

He's a perfectly fine player.  Paying a high draft pick and FA prices for perfectly fine players is almost always a bad idea, unless you're very close and it's the last piece to put you over the top.  It's inefficient resource management, and efficient resource management is how you make sure you have enough to fill all your holes, not just the one right in front of you today.

Just like my disdain for PFF grades, this isn't something I ad hoc created after the trade to justify not liking it. I said in the weeks leading up to the deadline that I don't like those kinds of trades. 

[UMFan83]

Already seeing the "Bagent is 2-2 as a starter, Fields is 5-21, he may not be as talented but he knows how to win" takes out there

[Hairyducked Idiot]

19 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Already seeing the "Bagent is 2-2 as a starter, Fields is 5-21, he may not be as talented but he knows how to win" takes out there

I mean ...  I think there's a *tiny* grain of truth to it.  Not a lot.  Bagent would lose a lot of games if you kept sending him out there and he didn't start playing better.

One of the things that statistical analysis of football often misses is that the goal of football play is always contextual.

The reason baseball lends itself to statistical analysis so easily is that the optimal strategy almost never changes outside of some very specific niche scenarios:  Get outs/avoid outs.

It's a lot more subtle in football, where there's a push/pull between accumulating points and controlling the clock.

One of the reasons Fields loses so many games is that his skill set is poorly suited to dealing with those fluctuating game states.  He's too boom/bust on plays to reliably control the clock, and he's too sack-prone and poor at reading defenses to come back when you're behind.  

Bagent at least can do one of those things well.  We call it "game managing" but he's doing is allowing his team to control the clock by minimizing mistakes and negative plays.

So while he's completely screwed if you need him to go out and put up points, he's actually been pretty effective at milking clocks with leads.

That's something that Fields can't do, as we saw in the Denver game.

Bagent had 0 sacks and 0 turnovers yesterday, which is a feat Fields has never achieved in 31 starts.
 

[WrigleyField 22]

For funsies:

The net cost of Mack (because the claim was made that it saddled them, I'm also counting picks they got back at the end of the deal)

Pick #24 equivalent (yes, just the one pick, everything else netted in value, any time value adjustments aside)

90M/4 years, 22.7M or about 12% of the average cap

Cost of Sweat: pick number (insert your best guess) and 98/4, 24.5M if he plays the full deal, or an anticipated 10% of the value of the average cap.

 

[Bearded_Beef]

36 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

You don't consider "he's an above-average DE" to be a good thing? Because I've said that multiple times in posts targeted directly at you.

Nah, that's definitely underselling him by quite a bit.  Ngakoue is considered an "above average DE".  Sweat is a bonafide stud, even if he's not on Macks level.  He's one of the best run stoppers at his position and a guy who consistently hurries QBs.

[We Got The Whole 9]

24 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Already seeing the "Bagent is 2-2 as a starter, Fields is 5-21, he may not be as talented but he knows how to win" takes out there

I get the disdain for Bagent and these comments but damn have you seen Fields career numbers in the 4th qtr when one TD drive is all that is needed? It's pretty easy to see why Bears fans are skeptical of his ability to win NFL games. He has been god-awful. I just don't think those comments should bother anyone because it is extremely likely that Poles believes neither should start for the Bears next year and it's simply about playing out the string this year. 

 

I think some of you guys pay way too much mind to stupid people out there, though. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

3 minutes ago, Bearded_Beef said:

Nah, that's definitely underselling him by quite a bit.  Ngakoue is considered an "above average DE".  Sweat is a bonafide stud, even if he's not on Macks level.  He's one of the best run stoppers at his position and a guy who consistently hurries QBs.

So your sliding scale on what constitutes "good" is based on whether it it *sufficiently* effusive to meet your standards, not whether it's literally a good thing or not.

Thank you for admitting that words mean nothing to you and you're just calvinballing opinions. I knew that, but it's nice to see you admit it.