Gold Glove Awards

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

If Shaw stays on trajectory I would not be the least bit surprised if he's starting at 3B around or after the ASB. It's more aggressive than usual for the Cubs, but they appear to be balls out right now (get your mind out of the gutter, I'm talking about a steam engine). Madrigal might start, but at some point in the cold spring, he's going to have a leg issue. 

Also, LOL, Madrigal's noodle arm and windup throw to third preclude him from any consideration for a gold glove. He's not a 3rd baseman. 

I'll give Madrigal some credit for a minute: regardless of motion/etc, Madrigal put in hard work over the offseason and did something I thought was comical; he became an above average fielding 3b. He increased his arm strength into the 46%, he posted elite OAA range and finished with a +8 DRS (which adds arm into the equation). It's 500+ innings and it's not enough data to make definitive statements...but if he can be that kind of a defensive 3b...I'm both happily shocked and glad to be wrong. 

[Outshined_One]

Shaw's bat should play anywhere on the field, but most of the reports that were circulating around the draft was that he'd have to move off SS and would likely end up at 2B since Shaw's arm is decent, but not great.

Madrigal at 3B is acceptable so long as the Cubs make major upgrades elsewhere.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Shaw has 15 games at AA under his belt and while the results are good, he's still very swing happy and upper level pitchers are going to adjust and force adjustments in kind.  For roster building purposes you have to assume he's a zero for this year, and practically speaking he's likely on the PCA track of maybe getting a September callup.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Shaw has 15 games at AA under his belt and while the results are good, he's still very swing happy and upper level pitchers are going to adjust and force adjustments in kind.  For roster building purposes you have to assume he's a zero for this year, and practically speaking he's likely on the PCA track of maybe getting a September callup.

Yeah I tend to sit on the fence with how quick Shaw will promote. I don't think he'll struggle in Tennessee, personally and expect he won't stick there long, either. I'm guessing if things go well and he remains healthy, that he'll make his debut in Iowa by early-mid-May (the Cubs like to move some pitchers around in early May, and I could see him being apart of this type of movement). Iowa will be the kicker for his approach questions. 

I think there is a difference in the PCA and the Matt Shaw equations, however, which changes the timeline. PCA had Cody Bellinger and a hot Mike Tauchmann to contend with. I'm not sure Matt Shaw is going to have that contention. Madrigal doesn't have a "get super hot" profile to him (and even when he's "hot" it's likely a lot of ugly hits) and Patrick Wisdom tends to struggle if given bulk-work (he seemed to do much better with curated and planned PA's in the 2nd half of last year versus his "Babe Ruth for 1 week, useless for 2 months" version). I think Shaw's biggest contention may come from BJ Murray and not the Cubs current MLB roster. In that vein, Matt Shaw on a "Kyle Schwarber" type of a route to the MLB, where he saw no more than 58 games at any level, promoted in early July for the playoff push, seems pretty possible.

All of that changes if the Cubs bring in a player capable of filling 3b. To a lesser degree, Jeimer Candelario could fill the "Cody Bellinger" roll of "could play one position or another" if they brought him back. But I've got a sneaking feeling the Cubs won't be adding much to 3b in FA or via trade currently.

Edited November 14, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Cuzi]

Are we convinced that Shaw is going to play 3B? The Cubs fast tracked Shaw to AA because he was murdering the lower levels. I dont see him going through AA and AAA at the same pace. It's possible, but I cant imagine him getting a call up til mid season next year and by that time our SS that currently plays 2B will have 1.5 years left under contract and could easily be traded.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Are we convinced that Shaw is going to play 3B? The Cubs fast tracked Shaw to AA because he was murdering the lower levels. I dont see him going through AA and AAA at the same pace. It's possible, but I cant imagine him getting a call up til mid season next year and by that time our SS that currently plays 2B will have 1.5 years left under contract and could easily be traded.

I don' believe the Cubs are trading Nico Hoerner anytime shortly, and certainly not in the middle of next season. The Cubs are seemingly aiming high on their wishlist this offseason, and I'm getting a feeling that they're at least looking to be good, and not just "maybe good". Teams who are looking to be good rarely trade controllable assets who put up 3+ fWAR mid-season. The team also, seemingly, adores middle-field defense, and Hoerner shines there. I can see an argument that the Cubs may need to make choices next offseason, but right now, the Cubs aren't acting like a team who will be dealing him in July.

That leaves 3b. The Cubs have had recent success with Madrigal to 3b, and Matt Shaw is athletic enough to handle the position in theory. How the translation would work is not something I can predict outside of suggestion, but we do know that upon reaching Tennessee, Shaw starting getting time at 3b. I don't think it's a coincidence. The path to playing time with the Cubs right now goes through 3b, not 2b.

An injury to Nico Hoerner can change the math here. Lots of variables. But I do think Shaw would be on a track to play 3b moreso than a track to play 2b in 2024.

[Cuzi]

When I said next year I was meaning 2025, not 2024. I've already moved on from 2023 because in terms of baseball we are talking about 2024 in the present currently. They did't long term commit to Hoerner. They just added 1 year to what they already had.

[CubinNY]

15 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah I tend to sit on the fence with how quick Shaw will promote. I don't think he'll struggle in Tennessee, personally and expect he won't stick there long, either. I'm guessing if things go well and he remains healthy, that he'll make his debut in Iowa by early-mid-May (the Cubs like to move some pitchers around in early May, and I could see him being apart of this type of movement). Iowa will be the kicker for his approach questions. 

I think there is a difference in the PCA and the Matt Shaw equations, however, which changes the timeline. PCA had Cody Bellinger and a hot Mike Tauchmann to contend with. I'm not sure Matt Shaw is going to have that contention. Madrigal doesn't have a "get super hot" profile to him (and even when he's "hot" it's likely a lot of ugly hits) and Patrick Wisdom tends to struggle if given bulk-work (he seemed to do much better with curated and planned PA's in the 2nd half of last year versus his "Babe Ruth for 1 week, useless for 2 months" version). I think Shaw's biggest contention may come from BJ Murray and not the Cubs current MLB roster. In that vein, Matt Shaw on a "Kyle Schwarber" type of a route to the MLB, where he saw no more than 58 games at any level, promoted in early July for the playoff push, seems pretty possible.

All of that changes if the Cubs bring in a player capable of filling 3b. To a lesser degree, Jeimer Candelario could fill the "Cody Bellinger" roll of "could play one position or another" if they brought him back. But I've got a sneaking feeling the Cubs won't be adding much to 3b in FA or via trade currently.

Just judging on post-pandemic rosters (not necessarily the Cubs), AAA is now filled with retreads, roster stashes, and hangers on. The real talent seems to be AA. Guys who are true prospects are not spending a lot of time hanging out in AAA. If Shaw gets moved to AA, I don't think he's going to spend a lot time there. 

[Tim]

18 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Just judging on post-pandemic rosters (not necessarily the Cubs), AAA is now filled with retreads, roster stashes, and hangers on. The real talent seems to be AA. Guys who are true prospects are not spending a lot of time hanging out in AAA. If Shaw gets moved to AA, I don't think he's going to spend a lot time there. 

Iowa is going to be packed with actual prospects this year.

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, Tim said:

Iowa is going to be packed with actual prospects this year.

Or trade candidates. It seems to me that they are going to have to package some of these dudes at some point. They are bottled up. 

[Jason Ross]

35 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Just judging on post-pandemic rosters (not necessarily the Cubs), AAA is now filled with retreads, roster stashes, and hangers on. The real talent seems to be AA. Guys who are true prospects are not spending a lot of time hanging out in AAA. If Shaw gets moved to AA, I don't think he's going to spend a lot time there. 

AAA has been filled more and more with talent. But actually, the guys I am worried about exploiting approach issues are the guys who have existed in MLB organizations because they're crafty, hard workers, who win on the margins. That's who beats guys with approach. I think Matt Shaw can hit stuff. What I don't know is if Matt Shaw can learn how to decide when to swing. Just because it's a strike doesn't mean you need to swing. Just because it's 1-0 doesn't mean you have to swing. Matt Shaw has to learn what a good strike is. It's why I think AAA is where he'll face that issue.

It's why someone like Davis has struggled in AAA to a large degree. There's velo in AA, but guys in AAA know how to get the fastball up at the hands. Their command is better. They are more developed.

Edited November 14, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Jason Ross]

54 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

When I said next year I was meaning 2025, not 2024. I've already moved on from 2023 because in terms of baseball we are talking about 2024 in the present currently. They did't long term commit to Hoerner. They just added 1 year to what they already had.

I can see where the confusion came than as for me "next year" is still 2024. I agree that the Cubs didn't commit to him long (though, upon a check, I don't see myself stating that). I agree, perhaps in the offseason after the 2024 season the Cubs may move Hoerner if they would rather go with Shaw. But that probably won't change where the Cubs play Shaw in the summer of 2024, either. I don't think he'll only play 3b in the MiLB next year, and expect he'll play some at second and some at third. But his pathway to playtime in 2024 is almost assuredly third. 2025 may prove to be different.

[CubinNY]

32 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

AAA has been filled more and more with talent. But actually, the guys I am worried about exploiting approach issues are the guys who have existed in MLB organizations because they're crafty, hard workers, who win on the margins. That's who beats guys with approach. I think Matt Shaw can hit stuff. What I don't know is if Matt Shaw can learn how to decide when to swing. Just because it's a strike doesn't mean you need to swing. Just because it's 1-0 doesn't mean you have to swing. Matt Shaw has to learn what a good strike is. It's why I think AAA is where he'll face that issue.

It's why someone like Davis has struggled in AAA to a large degree. There's velo in AA, but guys in AAA know how to get the fastball up at the hands. Their command is better. They are more developed.

Yes, he's got stuff to work on for sure. And the challenges will be different. If he rakes AND they need someone to play 3B AND he has the arm to play there he should be considered and not held back by some magical number of ABs he must have at each level. 

The Cubs haven't seen a batter this polished in a while. Probably not since Mark Grace. 

Also, I kind of believe the criticism is one based not on observation, but on expectation. He hasn't had to be patient because he's destroyed everything in his zone. Why take a walk when you can hit a double? But whatever, I agree. In theory, he will need to learn discipline. We don't know that he doesn't already. He walked more than he K'd his final year of college. 

Edited November 14, 2023 by CubinNY

[squally1313]

Trading Nico Hoerner to clear a spot for a guy with 70 PAs above single A is some galaxy brain stuff