Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I used names that supposedly were available according to all of the rumors that have been reported.  As for other GMs not having any interest, we'll never know because Jed apparently doesn't have any interest in making trades.  As for a "very different price", some of these teams (Marlins, Guardians, etc.,) are trying to dump salary.  Finally, if we had to overpay a little to get a team that is 90+ wins, I wouldn't hesitate for a minute instead of being stuck in being "fiscally responsible" and hoarding prospects until they're worthless.

I think we can safely say Jed is not the reason the Guardians aren't acquiring Wisdom and Mervis in a trade for Naylor or the Padres aren't acquiring Madrigal in a Kim trade.  Also the teams you mentioned trying to dump salary are so desperate to do it that we're on the verge of spring training and they haven't made any such cost-saving moves.

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I used names that supposedly were available according to all of the rumors that have been reported.  As for other GMs not having any interest, we'll never know because Jed apparently doesn't have any interest in making trades.  As for a "very different price", some of these teams (Marlins, Guardians, etc.,) are trying to dump salary.  Finally, if we had to overpay a little to get a team that is 90+ wins, I wouldn't hesitate for a minute instead of being stuck in being "fiscally responsible" and hoarding prospects until they're worthless.

1. You made a 84 win team. What else are you overpaying for to get to 90+ wins?

2. What is the bolded based on? The lack of three team trades?

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think we can safely say Jed is not the reason the Guardians aren't acquiring Wisdom and Mervis in a trade for Naylor or the Padres aren't acquiring Madrigal in a Kim trade.  Also the teams you mentioned trying to dump salary are so desperate to do it that we're on the verge of spring training and they haven't made any such cost-saving moves.

While we can argue all day long about a trade not offering enough or why would a team want a certain deal, the basic idea is why not trade some of your abundant minor league talent for major league talent. That could get you to 90 wins. You don’t have to mortgage the future for a one year guy. Maybe you deal for someone with 3 years before free agency. Maybe you do deal for a one year guy, but he didn’t cost a top prospect. I am certainly not a GM, but neither is anyone else here. So we don’t know what teams want. But if the question is what can Jed do to make this a contending team in 24’ I would say make some trades. Do so before the “star”prospects now turn into Brennon Davis of nit long ago. As squally pointed out, the Cubs have 7 top 100 prospects. Use a few plus maybe some lower level younger guys to bring in talent. 

[Rcal10]

30 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Cubs fans on Tuesday: "Why can't we have a Bobby Witt Jr.?"

Cubs fans on Friday: "Our 21 year old all-world defensive CF wasn't a finished product offensively.  He's trash and we're better off trading him!"

There are also Cubs fans who love the new toy until he fails and then move into the next shiny toy until he fails. Repeat as needed. I would bet many who are penciling in any of the young guys the Cubs have now were doing the same with Davis a few years ago. And they will do it with the new toy in the future always suggesting greatness awaits. Yet, it seldom comes. Fact is they have several young guys coming. There is no reason not to use a few to bring in proven talent. 

[Tim]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Much different goal posts if you want to try and be a consistent 84 win team. We're one of the Boras guys away from that. 

I'm pretty sure we're an 84+ win team as currently constructed.

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, Tim said:

I'm pretty sure we're an 84+ win team as currently constructed.

Not according to PECOTA?

Edited February 9, 2024 by LBiittner

[Rob]

2 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Not according to PECOTA?

PECOTA has been broken since Nate Silver left BP.

Fangraphs has us around 81.5 wins using their ZiPS/Steamer blend. Pure ZiPS sees us as 83-88 without any additional moves.

[We Got The Whole 9]

6 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Not according to PECOTA?

Didn't they project us for 77 wins last year? Who gives horsefeathers about any of these projections.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

29 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

While we can argue all day long about a trade not offering enough or why would a team want a certain deal, the basic idea is why not trade some of your abundant minor league talent for major league talent. That could get you to 90 wins. You don’t have to mortgage the future for a one year guy. Maybe you deal for someone with 3 years before free agency. Maybe you do deal for a one year guy, but he didn’t cost a top prospect. I am certainly not a GM, but neither is anyone else here. So we don’t know what teams want. But if the question is what can Jed do to make this a contending team in 24’ I would say make some trades. Do so before the “star”prospects now turn into Brennon Davis of nit long ago. As squally pointed out, the Cubs have 7 top 100 prospects. Use a few plus maybe some lower level younger guys to bring in talent. 

That's fine, I literally said on Monday my biggest criticism of Jed is potentially letting some of the assets he's acquired spoil in the name of always making the most efficient move.  But there is a gap between "I wish he would be a bit more aggressive in making a decisive move" and B2B's tired refrain of thinking Jed is terrible/a failure, and when asked to point out the missed opportunities to justify that, we get a list of my trash for your treasure trades that are divorced from reality.  This is especially true when there aren't that many trades that actually did transpire that demonstrate that the misalignment is on Jed's end instead of people not having a clear idea of what the asking price may be for some of these names.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

That's fine, I literally said on Monday my biggest criticism of Jed is potentially letting some of the assets he's acquired spoil in the name of always making the most efficient move.  But there is a gap between "I wish he would be a bit more aggressive in making a decisive move" and B2B's tired refrain of thinking Jed is terrible/a failure, and when asked to point out the missed opportunities to justify that, we get a list of my trash for your treasure trades that are divorced from reality.  This is especially true when there aren't that many trades that actually did transpire that demonstrate that the misalignment is on Jed's end instead of people not having a clear idea of what the asking price may be for some of these names.

That is fair. And I am not siding with b2b, I am just pointing out if the FA market isn’t happening they have enough assets to make trades for proven talent and still have a good farm system. I don’t want to constantly point to the farm as this carrot we somehow can never get to. I also agree we don’t know asking prices. And maybe we wouldn’t all be happy if what they had to give up. But this team should/could be better by making a few moves and utilizing those assets they have in the minors. 

[LBiittner]

5 minutes ago, Rob said:

PECOTA has been broken since Nate Silver left BP.

Fangraphs has us around 81.5 wins using their ZiPS/Steamer blend. Pure ZiPS sees us as 83-88 without any additional moves.

88 wins Without additional moves? Where is our lefty power coming from?

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

That's fine, I literally said on Monday my biggest criticism of Jed is potentially letting some of the assets he's acquired spoil in the name of always making the most efficient move.  But there is a gap between "I wish he would be a bit more aggressive in making a decisive move" and B2B's tired refrain of thinking Jed is terrible/a failure, and when asked to point out the missed opportunities to justify that, we get a list of my trash for your treasure trades that are divorced from reality.  This is especially true when there aren't that many trades that actually did transpire that demonstrate that the misalignment is on Jed's end instead of people not having a clear idea of what the asking price may be for some of these names.

Out of curiosity, and setting aside any Cubs/Brewers animus, would you have made a Cubs version of the Burnes trade? BBTV (I know, not perfect), has the Cubs equivalent as like, Shaw and Assad, or two of Alcantara, Caissie, Busch, Wicks. 

Asking because I was going to continue to be troll-y and point to the complete lack of 'advanced, higher end minor league talent for proven MLB talent trades' out there, and then I realized we had actually had a couple. 

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

That is fair. And I am not siding with b2b, I am just pointing out if the FA market isn’t happening they have enough assets to make trades for proven talent and still have a good farm system. I don’t want to constantly point to the farm as this carrot we somehow can never get to. I also agree we don’t know asking prices. And maybe we wouldn’t all be happy if what they had to give up. But this team should/could be better by making a few moves and utilizing those assets they have in the minors. 

*quietly crosses Steele, Hoerner, Wicks, Morel, and Azlolay off the team roster*

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Out of curiosity, and setting aside any Cubs/Brewers animus, would you have made a Cubs version of the Burnes trade? BBTV (I know, not perfect), has the Cubs equivalent as like, Shaw and Assad, or two of Alcantara, Caissie, Busch, Wicks. 

Asking because I was going to continue to be troll-y and point to the complete lack of 'advanced, higher end minor league talent for proven MLB talent trades' out there, and then I realized we had actually had a couple. 

I'm not sure, and maybe more importantly that was almost certainly never going to be an option available to Jed given the divisional dynamics.  The one I would have made is for Glasnow, and said so at the time.  But it's also a telling data point that essentially all of the big competitive trades being made so far have been for rentals.   I'm skimming the MLBTR tracker, so maybe I'm missing some, but of the players traded this offseason that are under team control for 2025 or beyond, Busch is maybe Top 3?

[Rob]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

88 wins Without additional moves? Where is our lefty power coming from?

ZiPS doesn't care about the provenance of runs. Lefty power hitters, speedsters playing smallball, heck -- it barely cares if you score runs at all, provided you can prevent the other team scoring them via pitching and defense.

That said, Ian Happ and Michael Busch are solid power sources. PCA is projected for a low-teens HR total. Mervis, Caissie, and Perlaza may also get some playing time this year and are projected to have decent power.

It's not ideal, but it's not a wasteland either.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm not sure, and maybe more importantly that was almost certainly never going to be an option available to Jed given the divisional dynamics.  The one I would have made is for Glasnow, and said so at the time.  But it's also a telling data point that essentially all of the big competitive trades being made so far have been for rentals.   I'm skimming the MLBTR tracker, so maybe I'm missing some, but of the players traded this offseason that are under team control for 2025 or beyond, Busch is maybe Top 3?

Yeah....Bummer, Suarez has an option of some sort. Caleb Ferguson? Those types of trades just aren't really happening, rough theory is that the additional playoff spots mean there are less teams looking at a 'tear down to the studs' rebuilding path and trading quality players with years of affordable control holds even less appeal. 

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

 Those types of trades just aren't really happening, rough theory is that the additional playoff spots mean there are less teams looking at a 'tear down to the studs' rebuilding path and trading quality players with years of affordable control holds even less appeal. 

This is a very good post. 

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

*quietly crosses Steele, Hoerner, Wicks, Morel, and Azlolay off the team roster*

How does the idea of trading young talent for proven major league talent cross those guys off? Stop trolling. If you don’t like the idea of trading from a loaded system to bring in talent now, that’s fine. But don’t turn that idea into some sort of stupid idea and make even dumber comments about it, like this one. Way back someone asked, maybe you, what could be done to better the team now. The answer is make some baseball trades. I am not a GM and neither is anyone here. So posting trade idea is a waste of time. But if these prospects are so good that people have them penciled into future line ups, they should be able to get a decent proven player now. And if they can’t, maybe they are not as good as some suggest. So maybe the Cubs shouldn’t count on them either. 

[LBiittner]

15 minutes ago, Rob said:

ZiPS doesn't care about the provenance of runs. Lefty power hitters, speedsters playing smallball, heck -- it barely cares if you score runs at all, provided you can prevent the other team scoring them via pitching and defense.

That said, Ian Happ and Michael Busch are solid power sources. PCA is projected for a low-teens HR total. Mervis, Caissie, and Perlaza may also get some playing time this year and are projected to have decent power.

It's not ideal, but it's not a wasteland either.

Thanks,

Also thanks for mentioning perlaza. I always considered him a jag in the Cubs minors, but he has put up some nice numbers.

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

How does the idea of trading young talent for proven major league talent cross those guys off? Stop trolling. If you don’t like the idea of trading from a loaded system to bring in talent now, that’s fine. But don’t turn that idea into some sort of stupid idea and make even dumber comments about it, like this one. Way back someone asked, maybe you, what could be done to better the team now. The answer is make some baseball trades. I am not a GM and neither is anyone here. So posting trade idea is a waste of time. But if these prospects are so good that people have them penciled into future line ups, they should be able to get a decent proven player now. And if they can’t, maybe they are not as good as some suggest. So maybe the Cubs shouldn’t count on them either. 

I was just pointing the several concrete examples we have on the roster of these prospects you want to cast off somehow managing to turn into quality major league basebal players (and generally low paid ones too!)

This is why these conversations are so frustrating though. It's just endless bitching about Hoyer in the midst of a league wide slow offseason, and when pressed about what the 'you' (used here and from now on in the general sense) would do different, you either come up with terrible trade ideas or 'I'm not a GM so this is a waste of time'. If you aren't a GM and can't come up with better ideas but you feel confident that the guy who's job you don't know how to do is doing a terrible job, what are we even doing here?

[Rcal10]

49 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I was just pointing the several concrete examples we have on the roster of these prospects you want to cast off somehow managing to turn into quality major league basebal players (and generally low paid ones too!)

This is why these conversations are so frustrating though. It's just endless bitching about Hoyer in the midst of a league wide slow offseason, and when pressed about what the 'you' (used here and from now on in the general sense) would do different, you either come up with terrible trade ideas or 'I'm not a GM so this is a waste of time'. If you aren't a GM and can't come up with better ideas but you feel confident that the guy who's job you don't know how to do is doing a terrible job, what are we even doing here?

And for every Steele, Alzolay, etc there are 5-10 or more guys who don’t make it, who have just as good a chance of making it as them. So tell me this, if the Cubs don’t get any of the Boras free agents how do you suppose they get better? That was all I was answering. They would need to make trades. Who would they trade? Wouldn’t it stand to reason it would be minor league talent for major league talent? That is where they have their most assets. 
I also am not bitching about Hoyer. I think given the guidelines I feel based on those guidelines he does ok. Would I like him to be a little more aggressive? Yes. But overall he is ok. I feel you go out of your way to defend Hoyer to the point of putting words in my mouth or misrepresenting my post to make a point. To use words you love to uses, stop freaking out.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

Thanks,

Also thanks for mentioning perlaza. I always considered him a jag in the Cubs minors, but he has put up some nice numbers.

So the Cubs still have Perlaza? I don’t think he is on the team any longer. 

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

1. You made a 84 win team. What else are you overpaying for to get to 90+ wins?

2. What is the bolded based on? The lack of three team trades?

You really think this is an 84 win team?

Naylor, Hoerner, Swanson, Kim, Happ, Bellinger, Suzuki, Gomes

Tauchman, Morel, Busch, Canario, Amaya

Steele, Bieber, Taillion,  Imanaga, Hendricks

Assad, Smyly, Azolay, Neris, Merryweather, Leiter, etc.

[squally1313]

11 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

You really think this is an 84 win team?

Naylor, Hoerner, Swanson, Kim, Happ, Bellinger, Suzuki, Gomes

Tauchman, Morel, Busch, Canario, Amaya

Steele, Bieber, Taillion,  Imanaga, Hendricks

Assad, Smyly, Azolay, Neris, Merryweather, Leiter, etc.

So in your scenario we traded for 2 first basemen and a third baseman, and still signed Imanaga after trading for Bieber. Assume with all these we'd be pretty comfortably into the luxury tax, which I think is pretty obviously not happening and not a Jed decision. Either way, here's my math on the 84 win number (FG has the Cubs as an 81 win team now, so the delta, plus I guess bench upgrades, got me to 84).  

[squally1313]

25 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

And for every Steele, Alzolay, etc there are 5-10 or more guys who don’t make it, who have just as good a chance of making it as them. So tell me this, if the Cubs don’t get any of the Boras free agents how do you suppose they get better? That was all I was answering. They would need to make trades. Who would they trade? Wouldn’t it stand to reason it would be minor league talent for major league talent? That is where they have their most assets. 
I also am not bitching about Hoyer. I think given the guidelines I feel based on those guidelines he does ok. Would I like him to be a little more aggressive? Yes. But overall he is ok. I feel you go out of your way to defend Hoyer to the point of putting words in my mouth or misrepresenting my post to make a point. To use words you love to uses, stop freaking out.

Internal improvement? You said yourself earlier, and I'll quote so I don't put words in your mouth, 'usually guys don’t come up and are great their first year'. These guys will get better. We've got a pretty large handful of guys who's 80% projection is significantly better performance, at significantly lower cost, than any of the Boras dudes out there or any of the names that have come up as trade targets. Of course they won't all work out. They especially all won't work out for the Cubs if you trade them away or block them with long term free agent signings. But, in my opinion, there's no path to dominance without developing elite, controlled talent. 

Again, what are these trades? What teams are shopping difference makers with years of control for outfielders in AA? Absolutely willing to entertain the conversation, but not going to do the work for you.