Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Let's hope so, but I dunno.  I guess we'll see, but Imanaga and Busch aren't moves that point towards that.

As others have pointed out, if the Cubs weren't planning on going over the LT this year, they'd likely have gone over at the deadline. Instead, they basically refused to add any real RP and stayed juuuuust under. The Cubs, themselves, have said they're "in the 4th or 5th inning" of their offseason. They still need at least one hitter and an 8th/9th reliever. And if they really aren't going over the LT, they'd have less than $30m, needing to save some overage for the deadline. That'd be a very difficult task to bring in another 3 MLB players for $30m. 

[Bertz]

33 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Cubs were in on Suter down to the end:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2024/01/13/how-new-reds-pitcher-brent-suter-brings-world-view-to-hometown-team/72216493007/

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Wonder if the end result was a decision to go with Almonte over Suter. At the price Suter signed for, feels like if the Cubs wanted him, they'd have made that one happen.

[LBiittner]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Gordon Wittenmeyer still breaking cubs news

[Stratos]

52 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

If he re-signs with the Cubs, I'll be surprised if it's low AAV. I fully expect something like 3 years/90-100 million with opt outs after each year. Maybe the Angels give him a long term deal or something, but I don't think Jed will.

Best case scenario for both Cubs and Bellinger might be him having 2 or 3 really good seasons and then opting out.

[Stratos]

55 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

As others have pointed out, if the Cubs weren't planning on going over the LT this year, they'd likely have gone over at the deadline. Instead, they basically refused to add any real RP and stayed juuuuust under. The Cubs, themselves, have said they're "in the 4th or 5th inning" of their offseason. They still need at least one hitter and an 8th/9th reliever. And if they really aren't going over the LT, they'd have less than $30m, needing to save some overage for the deadline. That'd be a very difficult task to bring in another 3 MLB players for $30m. 

I remember after the deadline hoyer saying the trade cost of relievers in that market was too high for them, so it may not have been a LT thing.  Who knows.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I remember after the deadline hoyer saying the trade cost of relievers in that market was too high for them, so it may not have been a LT thing.  Who knows.

Do you think Jed Hoyer would have said "We didn't want to go over the LT and that's why we didn't add a reliever?" He (and mostly Tom Ricketts) would have been killed in the media. Much easier to say "we didn't like the price". The Cubs just dealt, in part, Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope to Michael Busch and Yency Almonte, they're not immune to trades or their prices.

Maybe they didn't like the prices. But I have a strong feeling it had more to do with the LT than anything then. And I don't think the Cubs can reasonably finish their shopping list without going over now. 

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I doubt they add 2 more pen arms. Almonte was one. I think the second will be more established.

After what happened last season with this group of arms, if they only add 1 more arm plus Almonte, who sucks, then that's a huge fail.  Just like how Cuas wasn't enough.

[SOFNR]

Any chance of a surprise Bellinger announcement tomorrow? He definitely seems to be the talk of the convention.  At this point I'm going to be a bit surprised if Bellinger doesn't sign with the Cubs in the end. Probably not tomorrow though, as cool as it would be. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

After what happened last season with this group of arms, if they only add 1 more arm plus Almonte, who sucks, then that's a huge fail.  Just like how Cuas wasn't enough.

Than expect a huge fail. I highly doubt they add 2 more proven pen arms. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

5 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

He was playing at 5 fWAR/162 pace so, to fall to 3 fWAR would require a whole lot of regression or injury. Even when he was still broken in 2022 and putting up an 83 wRC+ he still managed to put up a 1.8 fWAR.

Jed has to ask: is it worth $25M to gain the extra win or two they would get from Bellinger over Tauchman + PCA. Then factor in oncoming regression. The juice might not be worth the squeeze.

[ToolDRT]

Yeah, I’m not big on Belli or Chapman. I don’t think they make long term sense for us. I think as much as I hate to say it, Chapman probably makes more sense at this point.
 

One thing that concerns me is Im struggling to see how we fit Busch, Morel, and Shaw on this roster. 

[Cuzi]

9 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

One thing that concerns me is Im struggling to see how we fit Busch, Morel, and Shaw on this roster. 

Why? Busch 1B, Shaw 3B, Morel DH/utility. But really the chances we see Shaw and Morel on the same team are probably slim. One of them will be traded before that happens. Not sure why that would be concerning though. You have to give to get and not everyone is going to pan out.

Edited January 14, 2024 by Cuzi

[ToolDRT]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Why? Busch 1B, Shaw 3B, Morel DH/utility. But really the chances we see Shaw and Morel on the same team are probably slim. One of them will be traded before that happens. Not sure why that would be concerning though. You have to give to get and not everyone is going to pan out.

Wasn’t the thought from scouts that Shaw might not have the arm for 3rd base? That mixed with not knowing which (if any) position Busch can adapt to and the assumption that Morel is only capable of being a dh just leaves me a little worried about the roster flexibility. Which sucks, cause those three bats would be nice to have on the same roster. 

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, ToolDRT said:

Yeah, I’m not big on Belli or Chapman. I don’t think they make long term sense for us. I think as much as I hate to say it, Chapman probably makes more sense at this point.
 

One thing that concerns me is Im struggling to see how we fit Busch, Morel, and Shaw on this roster. 

Considering Jed said they want a lefty bat or at least someone who hits right handed pitching well, I don’t see Chapman as a good fit. I think if it is not Bellinger who they sign, they may have to get that bat in a deal. The issue is, for me, what position does he fill? If Busch is the first baseman and PCA and Tauchman are in center and Morel can’t play 3rd it would have to be a 3rd baseman. Not many left handed bats that play 3rd. Maybe Lowe of TB. That is where they move a pen arm and a minor leaguer that opens a pen slot for who they sign. But can Lowe even play 3rd? Actually I would be pretty happy with a trade for Lowe AND signing Bellinger IF Lowe can play 3rd. 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 14, 2024 by Rcal10

[Jason Ross]

4 hours ago, ToolDRT said:

Wasn’t the thought from scouts that Shaw might not have the arm for 3rd base? That mixed with not knowing which (if any) position Busch can adapt to and the assumption that Morel is only capable of being a dh just leaves me a little worried about the roster flexibility. Which sucks, cause those three bats would be nice to have on the same roster. 

That's the thought, but I think you can probably say that scouts would have never envisioned Madrigal being a plus 3b, either. As well, the Cubs have shown that weak armed SS's can be plus defenders there; getting very good defensive seasons from Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson at SS despite "poor" arm strength grades. It's pretty clear that whatever the Cubs are doing defensively, they can makeup for poor arm strength on the left side. It'd be one thing if it was just one player, one year, but this dates back to 2022 now and over the course of a handful of players. If Matt Shaw is going to make it as a 3b, it would seem the Cubs are one of the best organizations to make it happen. 

Matt Shaw has reportedly taken "99% of his ground balls" this offseason at third. I have a feeling that's not just a choice by Shaw, but asked by the club. I think the Cubs think he can eventually get there at 3b.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

That's the thought, but I think you can probably say that scouts would have never envisioned Madrigal being a plus 3b, either. As well, the Cubs have shown that weak armed SS's can be plus defenders there; getting very good defensive seasons from Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson at SS despite "poor" arm strength grades. It's pretty clear that whatever the Cubs are doing defensively, they can makeup for poor arm strength on the left side. It'd be one thing if it was just one player, one year, but this dates back to 2022 now and over the course of a handful of players. If Matt Shaw is going to make it as a 3b, it would seem the Cubs are one of the best organizations to make it happen. 

I agree with this. And that said, isn’t Busch’s main issue arm strength. Couldn’t they work with him at 3rd? I know Jed said he is our first baseman, but could that be for Boras benefit when talking about Hoskins? Wouldn’t it seem Busch would be an easier guy to mold into a decent third baseman than Morel, a an example. Morel’s issue is not arm strength, seems third base is an issue right now with the team if they want to upgrade it. Lots of options in the team, but none very good for one reason or another. 

[Jason Ross]

44 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree with this. And that said, isn’t Busch’s main issue arm strength. Couldn’t they work with him at 3rd? I know Jed said he is our first baseman, but could that be for Boras benefit when talking about Hoskins? Wouldn’t it seem Busch would be an easier guy to mold into a decent third baseman than Morel, a an example. Morel’s issue is not arm strength, seems third base is an issue right now with the team if they want to upgrade it. Lots of options in the team, but none very good for one reason or another. 

Hoyer rarely minces words. I think it's very likely that Hoyer wasn't playing games with Boras and that the Cubs acquired him with the mind he's going to be a 1b with the Cubs most of the time. Notice how they approached Morel very differently from Busch when discussing the two. Busch was tagged a position and Morel was very shruggy "well he can hit we will find him a place". Think that says plenty. Busch is going to 1b, and Morel is a "well we are going to figure it out!". Think if there was a real shot at 3b or somewhere else for Busch they'd have had somewhat similar answers. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Hoyer rarely minces words. I think it's very likely that Hoyer wasn't playing games with Boras and that the Cubs acquired him with the mind he's going to be a 1b with the Cubs most of the time. Notice how they approached Morel very differently from Busch when discussing the two. Busch was tagged a position and Morel was very shruggy "well he can hit we will find him a place". Think that says plenty. Busch is going to 1b, and Morel is a "well we are going to figure it out!". Think if there was a real shot at 3b or somewhere else for Busch they'd have had somewhat similar answers. 

I didn’t hear the Busch comment, but I did hear him speak of Morel. You are absolutely correct, he did not give an answer on him regarding an everyday position. I am sure the Cubs will work with Morel at 3rd this spring, if they haven’t already started. But it definitely doesn’t seem like they are sure he can do it. Which is frustrating, because the team would be so much better if he they knew he could do it. Instead of looking for a third baseman who can hit a little, they could be just looking for a bat, period. JD Martinez would be that bat for me. But they can’t do that because right now it doesn’t appear they know what Morel can do, or they already know he isn’t a 3rd baseman.

[Jason Ross]

37 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I didn’t hear the Busch comment, but I did hear him speak of Morel. You are absolutely correct, he did not give an answer on him regarding an everyday position. I am sure the Cubs will work with Morel at 3rd this spring, if they haven’t already started. But it definitely doesn’t seem like they are sure he can do it. Which is frustrating, because the team would be so much better if he they knew he could do it. Instead of looking for a third baseman who can hit a little, they could be just looking for a bat, period. JD Martinez would be that bat for me. But they can’t do that because right now it doesn’t appear they know what Morel can do, or they already know he isn’t a 3rd baseman.

“He’s certainly going to play, that’s no question,” Hoyer said. “It’s up to Craig (Counsell) where. I think first base is obviously a natural spot for (Busch), he’s played there a lot. But certainly his versatility is also attractive.”

versus

“If you have a bat that will play in the major leagues, we will find a spot for you to play in the major leagues,” Hawkins said. “If (Morel) can step up in any of those (different positions), his bat is going to be something that just forces us to pencil him in the lineup. Worst case, he’s a DH a lot. Best case, he’s playing great defense for us. He certainly has the athleticism, the hands, the ability to do it. There’s an opportunity for him to be a great all-around player.” 

I don't think it's so much about "knowing" but Morel himself. At this point, Morel hasn't done anything defensively at a position the Cubs need to suggest he's capable of playing there. They've tried him at 3b in the minors plenty. They tried him in the OF. They have had him work at 1b...then traded for one. Where as Hoyer suggests Busch is a natural spot, the Cubs kind of hem and haw at Morel every time. Hopefully he figures something out because his bat is good enough to play.

[Bertz]

Yeah they were asked pretty point blank about Morel's position, twice, and mostly hemmed and hawed.  I would guess they try 3B in the spring but no one's especially confident in it working.

I'd guess one of two things for 3B:

1.  They like Madrigal as an everyday option more than the fans (not totally unreasonable) and also are comfortable with one of the other internal options during Madrigal's bi-annual IL trips.  Possibly even Busch given the talk about his versatility

2.  They plan to acquire an everyday, or at least everyday-ish, 3B option.  JD Davis maybe?  He has an 117 wRC+ against righties over the last 3 years.  Bonus is that he's a lowball hitter and should compliment Madrigal.  Giants seem like tbe favorites for Matt Chapman, and Davis is very superfluous from there

[muntjack]

When there was such an obvious omission of mentioning 3B in Morel's case, it occurred to me that if they were negotiating with Chapman, they would want to be very careful in that regard.  

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, muntjack said:

When there was such an obvious omission of mentioning 3B in Morel's case, it occurred to me that if they were negotiating with Chapman, they would want to be very careful in that regard.  

Perhaps. But they did mention 1b, and I think we all know that if the Cubs bring in Bellinger, there will be a very good likelihood he'll have to move from CF to, probably, 1b when they do call up Pete Crow-Armstrong and that didn't seem to stop them mentioning Busch there specifically. 

I'd take it more at their word: that the Cubs really don't know what position Morel can play.

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah they were asked pretty point blank about Morel's position, twice, and mostly hemmed and hawed.  I would guess they try 3B in the spring but no one's especially confident in it working.

I'd guess one of two things for 3B:

1.  They like Madrigal as an everyday option more than the fans (not totally unreasonable) and also are comfortable with one of the other internal options during Madrigal's bi-annual IL trips.  Possibly even Busch given the talk about his versatility

2.  They plan to acquire an everyday, or at least everyday-ish, 3B option.  JD Davis maybe?  He has an 117 wRC+ against righties over the last 3 years.  Bonus is that he's a lowball hitter and should compliment Madrigal.  Giants seem like tbe favorites for Matt Chapman, and Davis is very superfluous from there

I actually kind of like the idea of JD Davis assuming the cost to acquire him isn’t much. He only has one year before free agency. Often that is a players best year. And the Cubs don’t really want a long term guy there anyway. If San Fran did sign Chapman he would be a decent option. I know previous to last year he was pretty bat at 3rd, but I thought I read he did a decent job there last year. Davis at 3rd, Busch at 1st, Morel DH and sign Bellinger. Add a solid pen arm and that isn’t a terrible off season. 

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, muntjack said:

When there was such an obvious omission of mentioning 3B in Morel's case, it occurred to me that if they were negotiating with Chapman, they would want to be very careful in that regard.  

I don’t see Chapman as an option for the Cubs. I just don’t see them blocking 3rd base for 4 or more years and he doesn’t help them against right handed pitching. But I guess you never know. Jed does like defense.