Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m a sucker and see that Blake Snell is still a FA. One of the healthiest pitchers in the game, 96, elite secondaries, loaded resume and experience going back to HS…Sure would be nice!

He's not that healthy though.  Seems like he overachieved last year.  But yeah he'd be nice.

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

??

Neither of these things seem true to any meaningful level tbh. There’s nothing to call a surgery free career SP coming off a 96 but completely healthy.  I guess we can complain about the BB% of the CY winner with all the bells and whistles, everyone can always do moar to really earn their cap space in the wonderful Future 2.0, but it probably just makes him available for pretty cheap 

Pretty cheap, but not Cub cheap.

[Rcal10]

We really need a move by the Cubs FO to talk about. I realize there are still many options and we can still put together a good team, but just for the sake of conversation we need something. 

[ToolDRT]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

We really need a move by the Cubs FO to talk about. I realize there are still many options and we can still put together a good team, but just for the sake of conversation we need something. 

Maybe next year 🤣

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

Maybe next year 🤣

I still think they will make some moves. And there are still guys there. I just hate that he allows the rest of the league to dictate what they eventually do. It is just not what a large revenue team should do.

[ToolDRT]

21 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I still think they will make some moves. And there are still guys there. I just hate that he allows the rest of the league to dictate what they eventually do. It is just not what a large revenue team should do.

Yeah, I agree. Just making a cheesy new years joke. But I still feel had you told me right after the Counsell signing we’d be sitting here without any additions by January I’d have been gobsmacked. Still ways to improve, of course, but my ideal offseason is long since gone.

[Bertz]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

Maybe?  They were $30-40M under the tax this AM, needed one SP (and were talking to James Paxton about a reunion), and had been sniffing after Teoscar Hernandez.  Now they've given themselves another $10M but opened another hole.  I kind of think this puts them more on Bieber/Cease, but realistically they could go anywhere.

Okay yeah I think they're planning to grab Cease

 

[Petrey10]

5 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

This implies they were actually open at some point.

2024 free agency doesn’t start till calendar year 2024 right? - Jed hoyer

[We Got The Whole 9]

Besides the imports I don't really think we missed out on much. Maybe Gray or Rodriguez.

[LBiittner]

I'd be curious which young pitcher breslow pilfers off the Cubs roster. You know eventually he'll come sniffing around 

[LBiittner]

15 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Besides the imports I don't really think we missed out on much. Maybe Gray or Rodriguez.

I think we are priced out of a whole bunch to come.

Hader is projected around 120m. Snell around 180m. Belli around 200m. Chapman 150m. Hoskins is probably going to surprise everyone and get something a lot more than a prove it year deal. 

This year is the year of overpay. Remember how many were expecting glasnow to be had for wesneski, at most? Look how that spun around.

Now people are talking how Bieber can be gotten for  chicken fricassee? 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I think we are priced out of a whole bunch to come.

Hader is projected around 120m. Snell around 180m. Belli around 200m. Chapman 150m. Hoskins is probably going to surprise everyone and get something a lot more than a prove it year deal. 

This year is the year of overpay. Remember how many were expecting glasnow to be had for wesneski, at most? Look how that spun around.

Now people are talking how Bieber can be gotten for  chicken fricassee? 

The Sale trade does make me wonder what Bieber costs. After paying a portion of his contract the Red Sox traded him with basically a $10M price tag. And got a solid prospect back. I would think Bieber would net the Guardians a similar deal. Which is more than I thought the Cubs needed to give up. 

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

This year is the year of overpay.

Is it?  Because if you look at the MLBTR free agent predictions 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Yamamoto and Lee absolutely destroyed expectations, and most everyone else has come in at or under.

[LBiittner]

14 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Is it?  Because if you look at the MLBTR free agent predictions 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Yamamoto and Lee absolutely destroyed expectations, and most everyone else has come in at or under.

Actually 4 Asian imports got more than expected, not that I hold mlbtr the gold standard of hoodoo

[chibears55]

6 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Was the cost for the braves low to get a guy on his last year

Just saying,  The price for Bieber would have to be minimal for Jed to pull that trigger to acquire him. I doubt he is willing to give up one or two of his better prospects for him

[LBiittner]

5 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Just saying,  The price for Bieber would have to be minimal for Jed to pull that trigger to acquire him. I doubt he is willing to give up one or two of his better prospects for him

I feel you are right. This is looking like " Jed's year of not living dangerously". 

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Just saying,  The price for Bieber would have to be minimal for Jed to pull that trigger to acquire him. I doubt he is willing to give up one or two of his better prospects for him

Of course he won’t give up 2 of the Cubs better prospects. But it might cost more than one mid level guy or someone like Wesneski. Maybe that is why a deal hasn’t been completed 

[Petrey10]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Besides the imports I don't really think we missed out on much. Maybe Gray or Rodriguez.

Yeah just the best baseball player ever in like history….

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

??

Neither of these things seem true to any meaningful level tbh. There’s nothing to call a surgery free career SP coming off a 96 but completely healthy.  I guess we can complain about the BB% of the CY winner with all the bells and whistles, everyone can always do moar to really earn their cap space in the wonderful Future 2.0, but it probably just makes him available for pretty cheap 

You said he's "one of the healthiest pitchers in the game".  He's 31 and has only pitched 2 full seasons because of injuries.  He beat his xFIP by almost 1.5 runs this past season, which is why I said he overachieved.  He's still a very good pitcher though and has great stuff.  Can't see him coming cheap if he just won a Cy Young.

 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

We really need a move by the Cubs FO to talk about. I realize there are still many options and we can still put together a good team, but just for the sake of conversation we need something. 

Must suck to be a site like this one and Bleacher Nation to come up with articles with nothing to write about haha.

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'd have signed that Murphy contract all day long. It's really only a 3 year extension with a club option. They pre-paid his 3 years of control and then extended him until 2028 with an AAV of $15m. I'm not above criticism for any club (I do think they're going to get a little locked down here as TT said), but I'd have easily applauded the Cubs extending Murphy like that. Even if he falls off in his early 30's, $15m isn't a big LT hit. He just needs to be roughly starting caliber through 2028.

It's a good extension, it's pretty cheap.  They can always look to trade him in a few years before he really starts to decline.  He'd still be under fairly cheap control and probably get more back because of it.

[Rob]

12 minutes ago, Stratos said:

You said he's "one of the healthiest pitchers in the game".  He's 31 and has only pitched 2 full seasons because of injuries.  He beat his xFIP by almost 1.5 runs this past season, which is why I said he overachieved.  He's still a very good pitcher though and has great stuff.  Can't see him coming cheap if he just won a Cy Young.

 

xFIP used to be my go-to, but I've felt like it's having a hard time taking into account the proliferation of the swing plane revolution. Using the league average HR/FB feels like a cop out when hitters are now more likely to tee off on certain types of pitches.

I still look at it, but I trust it a lot less than I used to.

[Stratos]

3 minutes ago, Rob said:

xFIP used to be my go-to, but I've felt like it's having a hard time taking into account the proliferation of the swing plane revolution. Using the league average HR/FB feels like a cop out when hitters are now more likely to tee off on certain types of pitches.

I still look at it, but I trust it a lot less than I used to.

It's not perfect.  It doesn't take into account quality of contact.

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, Petrey10 said:

Yeah just the best baseball player ever in like history….

Oops I included him as an import. Lol I'm such a dufas

[We Got The Whole 9]

He will always be an import