9/20 - Pirates (Keller) vs Cubs (Steele): 6:40pm, Marquee

[Brock Beauchamp]

Cubs did what they're supposed to do against the Pirates last night and the Twins beat up on the Reds. That means the Cubs are back into sole possession of a postseason spot.

[UMFan83]

Keller has been pretty much a lockdown ace for the last month, save one start against the Braves who crush everyone.  His last 6 starts (oldest to newest)

6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB

6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB

8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB (vs. Cubs - their only loss to Pirates this year)

6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB

5 IP 12 H, 8 ER, 0 BB (Braves)

8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB

That's a 2.77 ER, 2.85 FIP with opponents OPS of .630 including the pounding by the Braves.

Steele needs to be at his best and the Cubs need to find a way to scratch out a couple of runs, or at the very least make him work and get him out after 6 IP instead of 8.

Cubs are 1-0 on a homestand that really need to try to go at least 5-1 on.  This might be the toughest of the 6.

 

Also one note I noticed on Steele that was interesting is that he is 12-2 with a 2.18 ERA at home this year vs. 4-2 with a 3.55 ERA on the road.

[UMFan83]

Also the Reds are beating the Twins 3-2 in the 8th inning.  This is the last game the Reds will play against a +.500 team this year.  The Phillies are beating the Braves 4-2 in the 8th

Edited September 20, 2023 by UMFan83

[soccer10k]

Twins tie it up on a single, stolen base, error on the throw and another single.

[UMFan83]

4 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Twins tie it up on a single, stolen base, error on the throw and another single.

Still runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out as the Twins attempt to take the lead.

[soccer10k]

Twins up 5-3!

[UMFan83]

Hell yeah, 5-3 twins

[soccer10k]

Reds lose. Phillies win.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Reds lose. That gives the Cubs a little breathing room ahead of them. Now we just need the same from Arizona and/or Miami.

[UMFan83]

6 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Reds lose. Phillies win.

Braves were 1 strike away from getting to bottom 10 tied 4-4 dammit.  Would have been great to get to within 2 of the Phillies.

Anyways, Reds are now 3 losses behind the Cubs.

All scenarios tonight involving the 4 most relevant teams.  Best case in bold, worst case in italics:

Cubs win, Diamondbacks win, Marlins win, Reds lose:  Cubs remain WC3, 0.5 GB Arizona, 0.5 GA of Miami, 2 GA of Reds

Cubs win, Diamondbacks lose, Marlins win, Reds lose: Cubs move to WC2, 0.5 GA of Arizona and Miami for WC3/1st out, 2 GA o of Reds

Cubs win, Diamondbacks win, Marlins lose, Reds lose:  Cubs remain WC3, 0.5 GB Arizona, 1.5 GA of Miami from cutline, 2 GA of Reds

Cubs win, Diamondbacks lose, Marlins lose, Reds lose: Cubs move to WC2, 0.5 GA of Arizona, 1.5 GA of Miami from the cutline, 2 GA of Reds

Cubs lose, Diamondbacks win, Marlins win, Reds lose: Cubs 0.5 GB Miami for WC3, 1.5 GB Arizona for WC2, 1 GA of Reds

Cubs lose, Diamondbacks lose, Marlins win, Reds lose:  Cubs 0.5 GB Miami and Arizona for WC2 and WC3, 1 GA of Reds

Cubs lose, Diamondbacks win, Marlins lose, Reds lose: Cubs remain in WC3, 1.5 GB Arizona for WC2, 0.5 GA of Miami/cutline, 1 GA of Reds

Cubs lose, Diamondbacks lose, Marlins lose, Reds lose:  Everything remains as it is now, with 1 more game removed from the schedule (WC3, 0.5 GB Arizona, 0.5 GA Miami, 1 GA Cincinnati)

Edited September 20, 2023 by UMFan83

[squally1313]

We were so impressed by Miles M last night that we decided to give him a start today, apparently. And yes, Canario (and PCA) are both sitting, but I don't think the two are related.

Tauch

Nico

Happ

Belli (1B)

Dansby

Suzuki

Morel (DH)

Gomes

Miles (3B)

[WhyCantWeWin]

Of course Ross sits both PCA and Canario

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Ross promised Mastrobuoni he’d get his chance to catch up to Canario in rbi.

[UMFan83]

Wait thats seriously the lineup tonight?  Not even shocked about the no Canario thing but Mastrobuoni getting his first start since like June and back to the Happ-Belli-Swanson-Seiya lineup that slumped through a 2-8 stretch?  What are we doing here?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Wait thats seriously the lineup tonight?  Not even shocked about the no Canario thing but Mastrobuoni getting his first start since like June and back to the Happ-Belli-Swanson-Seiya lineup that slumped through a 2-8 stretch?  What are we doing here?

 

[UMFan83]

Makes sense, I just hate seeing that stupid lineup 3-6, though I'm much more open to it against righties than lefties due to Happ not being terrible vs righties.

 

Also Arizona and SF are tied at 1 in the 3rd

[abuck1220]

don't really care that much about canario not starting, but suzuki hitting 6th is wild.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Braves recent slump sucks. 
A. They are losing to teams we needed them to beat.

B. They’ll need to beat us to close out HFA

[UMFan83]

3 minutes ago, abuck1220 said:

don't really care that much about canario not starting, but suzuki hitting 6th is wild.

Yeah that the part that's wild.  Seiya has been our best hitter for like 6 weeks, at least hit him 5th over Dansby who hit a flyout at 29 parks and a bloop single yesterday.

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, itisallpartoftheplan said:

Braves recent slump sucks. 
A. They are losing to teams we needed them to beat.

B. They’ll need to beat us to close out HFA

I personally think they'll play their bats against us but aim to have their top pitchers go in the final series.  There are 6 days between the end of the regular season and start of the NLDS and I imagine theres a goldilocks zone where you want to give them extra rest but not too much rest in between starts.  I haven't looked at their rotation and how it lines up though.

[UMFan83]

Unbeatable Diamondbacks up 3-1 now

[itisallpartoftheplan]

8 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Unbeatable Diamondbacks up 3-1 now

Don’t worry, they play the White Sox next week.

[Derwood]

All the “batting order doesn’t matter” and “a manager only swings the record 1-2 games either way” people can kiss my grits. Ross is an idiot and shows it daily. 

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Of course the Dbacks will miss Cole by a day.

[UMFan83]

19 minutes ago, itisallpartoftheplan said:

Don’t worry, they play the White Sox next week.

Will be interesting to see how the Brewers play that final series against the Cubs if we are still in the thick of it.   They probably want to play Miami, but maybe not.  If they want to play the Cubs, their ideal outcome is the Cubs needing to pitch Steele on Sunday to clinch a spot, thus ensuring he can't pitch in the WC series (at least as a normal starter)