Article: Who's the Next Big Prospect to Debut for the Cubs?

[Brandon Glick]

With top prospect Pete-Crow Armstrong ascending to the big leagues, the Cubs’ riches in the farm system are starting to bear fruit. What is the biggest debut now on tap for the Cubs in the near future?

Image courtesy of © Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

I’ll ask you to think back to the Cubs teams of the Theo Epstein era. After three years of ugly tanking, the Cubs had the top farm system in the game, augmented by two top-10 prospects in particular: Javier Baez and Kris Bryant. Baez would go on to make his highly-anticipated debut on August 5, 2014, showcasing the full array of his talents (namely going 1-6 with a monster home run). The Cubs, knowing the rest of their top prospects were soon to follow, loaded up over the 2014-2015 offseason, preparing for a number of years of true contention. 

Well, Bryant made good on those assumptions, destroying Spring Training pitching in 2015 and then laying waste to Triple-A over the first two weeks of the season.  He followed Baez up to the big leagues on April 17, 2015, solidifying the Cubs’ plans of finally winning again. 

The question now stands: who will be the Bryant to Pete Crow-Armstrong’s self-proclaimed Baez? Below is a list of prospects who stand a chance of giving that same feeling Bryant did when he finally made his fateful debut. Now, this is not necessarily the top five guys in the system, nor the guys closest to the major leagues. Instead, look at this list as a collection of the most electrifying and exciting talents the Cubs have, and an expectation on just how pumped the Wrigley faithful will be to see these guys playing in Chicago. 

#5: Matt Shaw
The Cubs’ first round pick in 2023, Shaw has blitzed three levels of minor league baseball (Rookie ball, High-A, and Double-A) to the tune of a 1.035 OPS this season. He’ll be a consensus top-100 prospect by the time the offseason rankings come around, and I’d wager that a number of them will have him closer to the top 50 than to the bottom of the list. 

The biggest question surrounding Shaw during the draft was his long-term defensive home, with most suspecting a move to the other side of the second-base bag would be the plan for the team who drafted him. But Shaw’s bat has been so far ahead of the curve that he might already be knocking on the door of the majors come Spring Training. With Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson patrolling the middle of the infield, could Shaw expedite the call-up process with a full-time move to third base?

Bryant was drafted in 2013 and made it to the Major Leagues at the beginning of his second full season in pro ball. Shaw may be on the precipice of making his debut even quicker than the 2016 National League MVP did. 

#4: Michael Arias
There are a lot of talented arms in the Cubs’ farm system, so do not take it lightly when I say that Arias may have the most raw talent of all of them. It’s hard to appreciate a 97-mile-per-hour bowling ball sinker from a sidearm slot without video, so please watch him toss five innings of no hit ball here so we’re all on the same page. 

The Cubs have remained dedicated to working Arias as a starter in 2023, and the 21-year-old righty has delivered with 81 innings pitched across 22 starts. He’ll continue to have his workload ramped up, though it’s a promising sign that the former shortstop prospect has been able to handle this much already. His 51 walks in those innings are a concern, but the 110 strikeouts he’s fired jump off the page all the same. 

The real reason he’s on this list, though, is the demeanor he has on the mound. In the same way that Jordan Wicks has been described as a “bulldog” by some, Arias pitches with his heart on his sleeve and rides on waves of momentum. He’ll have some really fun outings at Wrigley Field, if the team elects to keep him and bring him along. 

#3: Cade Horton
The top pitching prospect in the organization (and almost certainly the number one prospect for the Cubs once PCA graduates), Horton has the look of a long-term ace. He has two plus-plus pitches (his fastball and his wipeout slider), and simply has the “it” factor you want in the guy leading your pitching staff. He possesses an intimidating presence on the mound, and has a knack for pitching out of tough spots. 

That pedigree has been earned as well, as Horton has been utterly dominant in his first full season with the Cubs. Across three levels (Low-A, High-A and Double-A), Horton has a 2.65 ERA in 88 innings, pristine marks matched by his strikeout (117) and walk (27) totals. The big righty also has a .191 batting average against and sharp 1.00 WHIP. In other words, he can’t be hit, and he never really walks anyone. He’ll be good for a very long time.

The biggest thing going for Horton, though? It’s been a long, long, time since the Cubs have had a homegrown pitcher this talented make their debut. Though he’ll fall short of the national hype Stephen Strasburg generated before his historically great debut, Wrigley will be rocking when Horton takes the mound for the first time. 

#2: Kevin Alcantara
Odds are, when offseason lists come out, both Shaw and Horton will be ranked above Alcantara. That isn’t what we’re here to discuss, though. This guy is nicknamed “The Jaguar” for a reason. He’s a performance artist on the diamond, with the top-end speed to go with his love of making highlights. 

The five-tool righty has 12 homers and 15 steals this year, though those numbers are suppressed by the injury issues that cropped up for the 21-year-old earlier in the summer. He posted an .807 OPS in 95 games at High-A (a league in which he was two years younger than the average player), showcasing his raw talents, even if his approach needs some work. He’s also got the arm, speed, and glove to stick in center long-term, though assuming PCA is out there, he’ll make for a fine corner outfielder with instincts like these. 

Alcantara may be the farthest away from the majors on this list (it’s either him or Arias), but there’s no one else on here with the showmanship of The Jaguar. It’s more Baez-esque than even PCA, and if I had to guess the one guy to become synonymous with the Cubs over the course of his career, it’d be Alcantara. 

#1: Owen Caissie
I’m sort of flying in the face of my methodology with this pick and placement, as Caissie is probably the most serene player out of everyone listed here. But, I mean, look at this light tower power. This is Schwarberian in nature. 

Caissie has been outrageous in his breakout 2023 year, putting up a .916 OPS and 21 home runs at Double-A as a (recently turned) 21-year-old. His second half numbers have been even more ludicrous, as he’s got a 150 wRC+ and 16.5% walk rate backing up his prodigious power numbers. The strikeout numbers over the full year have been concerning, but there will always be a swing-and-miss element to the game of someone who hits the ball as hard as Caissie does.

(If that homer looked odd, it’s because Caissie hit the ball on a 16-degree launch angle at 117 miles per hour. No, that isn’t a typo.)

Caissie isn’t as consistent as Shaw, as emotional as Arias, or as dominant as Horton. Nor is he as much of an entertainer as Alcantara. None of that matters. He’s going to be a fixture in lineups at the Friendly Confines for years to come, and he’ll make a living driving in Pete Crow-Armstrong with moonshots the way Bryant once did with Baez.

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[Jason Ross]

I'll handicap Matt Shaw as the most likely. I say this as a pretty strong Caissie supporter (among the largest), but I think, as we stand today organizationally, Shaw is probably going to be the quickest riser. I think Caissie will struggle for a few months in Iowa, much like he has both in South Bend, and Tennessee before getting it together around the June/July mark. The Cubs have a few others who an fill in during injury at COF and DH, so I'm not sure he'll have a clear path, at least in 2024, even with an injury. However, 3b doesn't seem to have a real in-house option, and while they certainly can fulfill that position outside of the organization pre-2024, today they still have a pretty clear path.

Add in Matt Shaw's ability to get bat to baseball, and his easy power, and he's got a lot of the markers of someone who could be in Iowa come May 15th next year and at that point, would be "next up" at 3b if someone falters or someone gets hurt.  BJ Murray is the only other in house prospect at 3b, and the reports on the defense aren't entirely promising.  Considering the Cubs affinity for strong defenders he might not be a strong consideration there.

[CubinNY]

8 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

What are the reports on Murray’s defense at 3B, particularly in comparison to Shaw, Wisdom, and Madrigal? None of that trio is a particular defender, there’s a real shot at Shaw ending up in the OF if he can’t stick at SS 

So far the only comment I’ve found on Murray at 3B - and I’ve looked - is MLB.com calling him an adequate defender with an average arm who needs reps during what is his first full pro season at the spot 

 

you just participated in a thread regarding this like two weeks ago. It's round and round. OCD

[Stratos]

Shaw, maybe Horton.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m fascinated by how free and extra credit gets doled out in the post-pandemic Cubs org? Shaw, for instance, has started more games in the OF (25) going back to college than 3B (24), there was plenty of talk about moving out of the IF entirely as a MLer during the draft process, gets knocked for arm strength, but the algorithms feeds him free and extra credit as a straight 3B prospect that Murray can’t get by playing 3B 

I haven't seen you hype the underdog so hard since Candelario. I am pretty sure Murray is gonna be a decent MLBer but dude we don't need the constant reminder of his existence. 

[Rex Buckingham]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m fascinated by how free and extra credit gets doled out in the post-pandemic Cubs org? Shaw, for instance, has started more games in the OF (25) going back to college than 3B (24), there was plenty of talk about moving out of the IF entirely as a MLer during the draft process, gets knocked for arm strength, but the algorithms feeds him free and extra credit as a straight 3B prospect that Murray can’t get by playing 3B 

Shaw hasn't played a lot of 3B because he's been a capable SS in college, but you know that.  Murray is a short 1B who they've given time at 3B who may be solid for all I know, but he's moving up the defensive spectrum to 3B while Shaw is moving down.  It is a safe and fair assumption that Shaw is more likely to be an average or better MLB 3B defender than Murray.  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m fascinated by how free and extra credit gets doled out in the post-pandemic Cubs org? Shaw, for instance, has started more games in the OF (25) going back to college than 3B (24), there was plenty of talk about moving out of the IF entirely as a MLer during the draft process, gets knocked for arm strength, but the algorithms feeds him free and extra credit as a straight 3B prospect that Murray can’t get by playing 3B 

I mean you don't have to agree with it, but it seems silly to me to pretend to not understand why Shaw, the college SS who has played mostly SS in pro ball, is considered a potential 3B.  And also why Murray, who prior to this year had played over 70% of his pro innings at 1B, might have questions about his ability to stick at 3B.

[Jason Ross]

39 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Murray has played 75 games at 1B btw NCAA and MiLB. He’s played 269 at 3B.  Height’s not an issue outside extremes

I’ve mentioned Future Value many times in regards to player development and the defensive spectrum. They don’t see SS as some automatic superdefender, and we’ve even it live with Kevin Made and Jefferson Rojas (Starlin Castro before them) that being a capable SS doesn’t play everywhere/anywhere so easily. It’s different skillsets, 3B requiring much less range (not the knock on Shaw) but more arm (is the knock on Shaw) in this case. If the instinct is that Madrigal doesn’t have an arm either then consider the Cubs are no better than 17th at the position by DEF, DRS, UZR, anything other than OAA really. Shaw’s maybe most close to Trea Turner’s SS/2B/OF game than a corner infielder 

I get *why* anyone would make the leap, but  a general approach to all prospects blows up once forced to be faced with a specific individual rather than the idea IMO

I’m Alcantara’d out meself! 

Well, the Cubs are 17th probably due to how much time Patrick Wisdom has played there. Patrick Wisdom has been a -5 DRS at 3b. A better example for what you're suggesting about arm, is to look at Nick Madrigal at 3b, and Madrigal alone. Nick Madrigal has an arm in the 46%. This represents a significant upgrade over his time at 2b. Whether this is mechanical, physical, added strength, just being healthy, I cannot speak to it, but whatever the reason, the Cubs have shown an ability to drag extra value via arm out of Madrigal in some way. Despite having a >50% arm rating, in 560 innings, Madrigal has put up a +7 DRS. This is why I think it's unfair to show the Cubs are 17th in whatever you want; Patrick Wisdom is really bad there and he drags things down. It's not a large enough sample size defensively for me to say "Nick Madrigal is a gold-glove type at 3b" but it's enough to suggest that he's actually...pretty decent over there despite the less than stellar arm. In a similar vein, the Cubs extracted excellent defensive value from Nico Hoerner at SS for a season, a position I also did not believe he had the arm for. There's pattern for success.

What does this mean for Shaw? He's a highly athletic player who's arm and range just won't be good enough at SS, but very well could find himself in the Nick Madrigal/Nico Hoerner camp of "The Cubs were able to extract value out of the arm". I expect the Cubs will prioritize Shaw over Murray as well, at 3b. Murray can play 1b, where as the other positions Shaw can play (2b, OF) are all solved currently, and probably long term. Maybe an injury will change the math there in 2024, but Shaw at 3b and Murray as a 1b/DH is probably your best bet to give both routes to the MLB next season.  So far, in AA, they don't seem to have done that, but I think some of that is the makeup of the roster. They don't have a SS or a 2b that's so good they need to play, and the Cubs already have McGeary at 1b there. When push comes to shove, my guess is that Shaw will be the chosen 3b over Murray as a "path to the MLB" is concerned. We'll see, it's a guess. None of this is a knock on Murray as a prospect, but just attempting to guess where the Cubs will go with that.

Edited September 19, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Transmogrified Tiger]

52 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

It’s different skillsets, 3B requiring much less range (not the knock on Shaw) but more arm (is the knock on Shaw) in this case. If the instinct is that Madrigal doesn’t have an arm either then consider the Cubs are no better than 17th at the position by DEF, DRS, UZR, anything other than OAA really.

I'm not going to make the case for Shaw as an easy 3B, but on this point I'd nitpick that DRS, UZR, and OAA all think Madrigal has been a plus 3B.  So in that example the dream stays alive that arm might be overstated in 3B defensive value.  If I have a concern with Shaw as a MLB 3B it's more of 1) if can he hit enough to be a 3+ win player there 2) if he can field cleanly in general (8 errors at SS/2B in 32 pro games).

[CubinNY]

They are going to move Shaw around a bit and see where his glove works best, because to this point he is showing the bat to ball skills of MLB. His developmental timeline has nothing to do with BJ Murray. They are not linked. It's not a 0 sum game. If you think Murray will break in first, you are welcome to have that opinion. Denigrating Shaw or poking at his prospect status doesn't affect Murray.

It's anger inducing. 

[CubinNY]

Mervis is red horsefeathers hot in AAA and should have been called up a long time ago. I don't know what the Cubs are/aren't seeing in him, but I imagine it rhymes with dickhead boss.

[Irrelevant Dude]

9 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Mervis is red horsefeathers hot in AAA and should have been called up a long time ago.

That would take playing time away from Canario.

[CubinNY]

17 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

That would take playing time away from Canario.

Whose on the IL?

Edited September 19, 2023 by CubinNY

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Mervis is red horsefeathers hot in AAA and should have been called up a long time ago. I don't know what the Cubs are/aren't seeing in him, but I imagine it rhymes with dickhead boss.

This probably isn't a great sign for the broader org's opinion of Mervis

 

[Irrelevant Dude]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

This probably isn't a great sign for the broader org's opinion of Mervis

 

What the horsefeathers?  Why?

There's not having a high opinion of a guy and then there's just shooting yourself in the foot.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

20 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

What the horsefeathers?  Why?

There's not having a high opinion of a guy and then there's just shooting yourself in the foot.

I don't quite get it either.  If I'm outside looking in for a justification, I guess you can come up with Young outproducing Mervis at AAA, and showed himself to be marginally less overwhelmed in his MLB time to date.

[Irrelevant Dude]

17 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I don't quite get it either.  If I'm outside looking in for a justification, I guess you can come up with Young outproducing Mervis at AAA, and showed himself to be marginally less overwhelmed in his MLB time to date.

I disagree on the second point though.  Young showed himself to be completely overwhelmed, both offensively and defensively.  Despite Young's AAA numbers being slightly better, I just can't wrap my head around him being able to contribute more than Mervis over the next 2 weeks.

And if this does accurately reflect how the Cubs organization views Mervis, then they probably have to trade him for whatever low level minor leaguer they can get this offseason.  It doesn't make sense to dedicate a 40 man roster spot to a 26 year old AAA first baseman who is that low on the depth chart.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Irrelevant Dude

[CubinNY]

Mervis hit a 439 foot HR today.