7/23 - Cardinals (Montgomery) vs Cubs (Taillon): 1:20pm, Marquee

[CubinNY]

Marquee should give the job to Owens full time and let Boog do whatever 

[JD94]

1 hour ago, 17 Seconds said:

it's funny watching all the new people slowly realize that TT knows more than all of us

I’m not sure if this is directed at anybody in particular or just a general comment. I think the poster you’re referring to is very knowledgeable on how things work. I’ve noticed that in my short time here. I also think having PSD guys coming over  (some who I would put up against anybody in the category of truly understanding baseball) is a good thing for everybody to get different ideas. This baseball thing isn’t an exact science. GM’s and Scouts and Presidents get things wrong every year. Half of the 1st round picks in this years draft will be busts. Somebody will make a horrible trade at the deadline. Just 2 small examples of the best of the best inevitably being wrong. 
 

This is in no way implied to TT, more so a general thought your post made me think of… plenty of people understand baseball to a higher degree that the large majority of baseball fans. Plenty of people understand how to value players, how to read baseball savant pages, how to read advanced analytics. Nobody can predict anything with 100% certainty though. Not ML GM’s, not the smartest baseball mind you or I know, not anybody. Everybody gets things wrong. Which brings me back to my original point of having new opinions on the board, new outlooks, and new ideas is a good thing for everybody. There’s nobody who can predict the exact prospect Marcus Stroman brings back or if PCA will be a perennial All-Star, so let’s just appreciate smart baseball people bouncing ideas off each other and see what sticks rather than ranking posters or implying peoples ideas are bad because at the end of the day, you can read all the stats, have all the information, and still be completely wrong. 
 

Again, this is just a general reaction to your post. Not meant to talk about anybody specifically, so I hope it’s not taken that way. 
 

I firmly believe iron sharpens iron. Give me all the smart baseball minds in the same room bouncing ideas off each other. We all have the same end goal in mind. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

6 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Marquee should give the job to Owens full time

Who?

[Tryptamine]

Taillon vs Montgomery, Cards have to be pretty heavy favorites in this one

[Irrelevant Dude]

Regarding Bellinger and the QO - I completely understand why the compensation pick is valuable to the Cubs, and also how the Cubs can straddle the line of "trying to compete" while still receiving something in return.  On the other hand, Bellinger is not Contreras, and all it takes is one semi-aggressive team to blow away the value of a comp pick.  I think people are being a little too quick to assume that isn't likely to happen.  Bellinger may very well bring back a Top 100 prospect type, and that isn't something the Cubs are going to get with a comp pick.

[JD94]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Taillon vs Montgomery, Cards have to be pretty heavy favorites in this one

From a betting standpoint, the Cardinals are at -120. They opened at -150, but 70% of the money came in on the Cubs and lowered the betting line a bit, but yes, the Cardinals are favored in this one. 

[17 Seconds]

17 minutes ago, JD94 said:

I’m not sure if this is directed at anybody in particular or just a general comment. I think the poster you’re referring to is very knowledgeable on how things work. I’ve noticed that in my short time here. I also think having PSD guys coming over  (some who I would put up against anybody in the category of truly understanding baseball) is a good thing for everybody to get different ideas. This baseball thing isn’t an exact science. GM’s and Scouts and Presidents get things wrong every year. Half of the 1st round picks in this years draft will be busts. Somebody will make a horrible trade at the deadline. Just 2 small examples of the best of the best inevitably being wrong. 
 

This is in no way implied to TT, more so a general thought your post made me think of… plenty of people understand baseball to a higher degree that the large majority of baseball fans. Plenty of people understand how to value players, how to read baseball savant pages, how to read advanced analytics. Nobody can predict anything with 100% certainty though. Not ML GM’s, not the smartest baseball mind you or I know, not anybody. Everybody gets things wrong. Which brings me back to my original point of having new opinions on the board, new outlooks, and new ideas is a good thing for everybody. There’s nobody who can predict the exact prospect Marcus Stroman brings back or if PCA will be a perennial All-Star, so let’s just appreciate smart baseball people bouncing ideas off each other and see what sticks rather than ranking posters or implying peoples ideas are bad because at the end of the day, you can read all the stats, have all the information, and still be completely wrong. 
 

Again, this is just a general reaction to your post. Not meant to talk about anybody specifically, so I hope it’s not taken that way. 
 

I firmly believe iron sharpens iron. Give me all the smart baseball minds in the same room bouncing ideas off each other. We all have the same end goal in mind. 

this wasn't meant to be attack. that's why i said "all of us". it was more of a compliment to him than an insult to anyone else. you'll see

Edited July 23, 2023 by 17 Seconds

[CubinNY]

7 minutes ago, JD94 said:

From a betting standpoint, the Cardinals are at -120. They opened at -150, but 70% of the money came in on the Cubs and lowered the betting line a bit, but yes, the Cardinals are favored in this one. 

Don’t need a betting line on + Tallion + Sunday Cubs. I’m hoping for a minor miracle. 

Edited July 23, 2023 by CubinNY

[Tryptamine]

Wow, a scoreless inning, how rare.

[CubinNY]

17 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Who?

Sorry Mowins 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Regarding Bellinger and the QO - I completely understand why the compensation pick is valuable to the Cubs, and also how the Cubs can straddle the line of "trying to compete" while still receiving something in return.  On the other hand, Bellinger is not Contreras, and all it takes is one semi-aggressive team to blow away the value of a comp pick.  I think people are being a little too quick to assume that isn't likely to happen.  Bellinger may very well bring back a Top 100 prospect type, and that isn't something the Cubs are going to get with a comp pick.

I could be wrong about this and over-reacting to how Contreras played out, but I suspect it will need to be something a fair amount better than what we think of when we say 'Top 100' prospect.  Like decent cost controlled major leaguer or locked on Top 50 prospect. It's a nuanced thing especially since prospect evals can vary, but like if the Guardians want Bellinger to make a run and to keep him from the Twins, something like Daniel Espino(a very quality prospect by all accounts, especially since his blemishes are injuries) is probably not going to cut it.  Having said that, I've basically ensured a Bellinger/Espino deal coming to fruition if for no other reason to spite me for spending so many posts on the idea.

[Eeyore]

Was there a rules change over night that allows the Cubs' defense to escape the first inning scoreless?

[17 Seconds]

if he finishes with 4-5 war, what kind of contract do we all think he's going to get? i honestly have no idea on the years or money, he's such a weird case.

[JD94]

11 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Regarding Bellinger and the QO - I completely understand why the compensation pick is valuable to the Cubs, and also how the Cubs can straddle the line of "trying to compete" while still receiving something in return.  On the other hand, Bellinger is not Contreras, and all it takes is one semi-aggressive team to blow away the value of a comp pick.  I think people are being a little too quick to assume that isn't likely to happen.  Bellinger may very well bring back a Top 100 prospect type, and that isn't something the Cubs are going to get with a comp pick.

I think the best blueprint to use in figuring out what Bellinger could bring back is previous similar deals. History shows that rental bats don’t bring much back at the deadline. 
 

I do agree that all it takes is one GM to say “you know what, I think Cody Bellinger really puts us over the top.” That is a very possible outcome that shouldn’t be ignored. I also think the Cubs are in a “win-win” situation with Cody. They either get a strong package for him at the deadline, get the comp pick, or just keep him and resign him. If you told Jed when he signed Cody to a “prove it” deal that these options were on the table, he would have jumped for joy. It meant that Cody worked out, and he has. Good signing by Jed regardless of what happens at the deadline. 

[champaignchris]

Insert “pay that man his money” gif here. 

[JD94]

2 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

if he finishes with 4-5 war, what kind of contract do we all think he's going to get? i honestly have no idea on the years or money, he's such a weird case.

He will want Brandon Nimmo money. I can guarantee you that will be the comp Scott Boras uses. Nimmo got 8/162. 

[Eeyore]

Am I watching an A.I. created game or did the Cubs take a two run lead?

[17 Seconds]

Just now, JD94 said:

He will want Brandon Nimmo money. I can guarantee you that will be the comp Scott Boras uses. Nimmo got 8/162. 

that's what i was thinking. my dream scenario for bellinger when he signed was that he returned to form and we extended him, but 8 years with his past terrifies me.

[CubinNY]

Jed hold out,  Mead or Mayo or bust! 

[JD94]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

that's what i was thinking. my dream scenario for bellinger when he signed was that he returned to form and we extended him, but 8 years with his past terrifies me.

His injury history concerns me. Paying him as an elite CF when PCA will be ready next year scares me. His baseball savant page scares me. But damn he’s been a star this year. He’s the exact type of players we need to be adding, so watching him walk would/will be hard. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

9 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Sorry Mowins 

Ah, ok. I hadn't turned the game on yet, so seeing Owens out of context I was thinking it was someone completely new.

I know I'm in the minority, but I'm not a Mowins fan.  I do think she does a very respectable job of announcing, but something about her tone doesn't quite connect with me.

Saying that, that is also the same way I initially felt about Len Kasper, so would I get used to it if she was in the booth every day?  Probably.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, JD94 said:

He will want Brandon Nimmo money. I can guarantee you that will be the comp Scott Boras uses. Nimmo got 8/162. 

Nimmo is where my mind went too.  Bellinger has had higher highs and lower lows and is 2 years younger at FA so maybe he goes for a little lighter years and higher AAV, or is more aggressive with opt outs?

[CubinNY]

Too much to hope for, but a win here is a dagger to to the heart for St. Louis. 

[JD94]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Nimmo is where my mind went too.  Bellinger has had higher highs and lower lows and is 2 years younger at FA so maybe he goes for a little lighter years and higher AAV, or is more aggressive with opt outs?

Yep.. it’s hard to say for sure. I just know the general ballpark will be around the Nimmo deal. Maybe it’s like you said and fewer years, higher AAV. Maybe it’s an opt out after year 2. Maybe it’s both. I have no idea. He’s definitely made himself some money this year though. 

[Tryptamine]

Herrera's stance irrationally makes me angry