2024 MLB Draft Thread

[Outshined_One]

6 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Outside looking in, I don't see anyone so good at 14 that I have to have 'em which makes BPA really hard. I'm not sure there will be any obvious BPA.

That sums up my thoughts on this year's draft pretty well. Aside from Condon/Bazzana, it seems like there aren't many guys who look like they could be superstar caliber guys in MLB in the near future. Everyone else has varying degrees of negatives and mixed opinions.

For example, there was a recent discussion on here where Tibbs picked up some Ian Happ comps. That's not bad by any stretch of the imagination, but it's not exactly inspiring, either.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

That sums up my thoughts on this year's draft pretty well. Aside from Condon/Bazzana, it seems like there aren't many guys who look like they could be superstar caliber guys in MLB in the near future. Everyone else has varying degrees of negatives and mixed opinions.

For example, there was a recent discussion on here where Tibbs picked up some Ian Happ comps. That's not bad by any stretch of the imagination, but it's not exactly inspiring, either.

I'd say it's deeper than Condon/Bazzana; hell, as of now, it looks like neither are going 1.1 (J.J. Weatherholt is the clubhouse leader) but either Condono or Bazzana can go as low as 1.5! I've got eight guys in my top-tier of prospects currently. There's a few guys in the 9-12 range I think stand out a little more than others...and then  pretty steep drop. 

But yeah, the range where the Cubs are taking guys? It's a crapshoot. I think some team will convince themselves one of these guys is a star. Cam Smith, or James Tibbs are guy I think I can see a team believing that. But outside of a team really buying into one of them? I suspect there will be a lot of teams who have guy similarly rated and will go with signability. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I would also say that even if you do have strong conviction that one of the likely available names is BPA, there's so much muddled beyond the top 8 or so that it's very plausible that you can get that guy to take an underslot deal because there's little guarantee he doesn't slide to 20 or worse if you don't take him.  The one exception would probably be Yesavage given the lack of other pitchers in that range, but absent a player having a guarantee from one of the Red Sox or White Sox right after, I think you can safely assume your hitter BPA can still come at a 500k discount to slot in many cases.

[CubinNY]

ok, I just read this

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5606700/2024/07/02/mlb-draft-malcolm-moore-stanford/

 

{Veruca Salts voice] I want him, Daddy! 

[Jason Ross]

I'll admit the more legwork I've put on Malcolm Moore, the more I've been impressed. The .255 batting average this season is the one *statistical* knock, but based on everything I've read about his batted ball data, feels like it's a mitigated concern and was partially due to bad luck, partially due to a new approach at the plate. 

Defensively is the question, but it seems as though Moore is someone determined to try to make it work, based on that article, for whatever that's worth to you. If the Cubs believe he's an MLB catcher...he's probably moving into 1/2 position with Ryan Waldschmidt as my favorite picks at 14 right now. Cam Smith rounds out my top-3. 

[Bertz]

One thing Ive been thinking about is that because the Cubs have such a strong and deep farm I feel like it's prudent to draft for need after the first round.  Not MLB team need, but organizational pipeline need.  I think we want to keep that strong with a steady flow of guys heading towards MLB with relatively staggered ETAs

So where are there weak spots?

- Catcher is weak throughout.  Ballesteros is probably a Mitch Garver type 3rd catcher/DH.  Aliendo has a chance as a backup C that strikes out a ton but does hit some dongs.  I liked Michael Carico on draft day last year but he's apparently dead?

- Catcher aside, the upper levels of the farm are stacked position player wise.  There's a a definite lull at South Bend, and then a solid wave of LatAm guys at Myrtle and below

- Pitching is a bit similar to the bats.  If you step back and consider some of the not totally established MLB arms like Brown and Wesneski as prospects, the upper levels of the farm are very strong, things get very thin at Tenn/SB, and then Myrtle's fun again.  With Mule/Wiggins/Wheat up I don't think there's a ton of talent left down at the Complex levels?

So all told I think you want college position players and then a bunch of pitching regardless of demo.  I think I basically want a redo of the '22 draft but with a hitter in the 1st.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Cubs420psd]

No thank you on Moore or the kid from UK.

 

Don't see exciting ceilings there. Feels like the Cubs have of plenty of that already all through the org. Yesavage would be awesome, keep the pitching coming. Tibbs would be cool too.

Edited July 5, 2024 by Cubs420psd

[Jason Ross]

5 hours ago, Cubs420psd said:

No thank you on Moore or the kid from UK.

 

Don't see exciting ceilings there. Feels like the Cubs have of plenty of that already all through the org. Yesavage would be awesome, keep the pitching coming. Tibbs would be cool too.

If we're being realistic, the upside on someone like Yesavage is probably right next to that of the upside on Waldschmidt or Malcom Moore, or just about anyone else the Cubs are going to be picking from. Yesavage isn't really someone you'd project today to be a #1 or a #2 in a traditional rotation; you can make a play for "sum of all your parts" but I think a realistic upside on him is something of a #3-#4 in a good rotation. That's not nothing, but that's also probably right next to Waldschmidt, or Moore, or almost any of the other college bats who will be available at 14. No shade for anyone who prefers one of these names over another, but this ain't the draft (on paper) where you're drafting a superstar potential from where the Cubs are picking. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but I think we have to slide our realistic outlooks on #14 this season.

I do expect a more "arm" heavy draft this season overall. though. Kind of why I lean thinking the Cubs will go college-bat in the top and then aim at picking through pitchers most of the way through.

[Cubs420psd]

8 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

^ I’d preeeettty easily take Yesavage over Moore and Waldschmidt in ceiling, would even say there’s #2 upside as that goes. Relative to position, he’s the most tooled up of the three: best pro frame and size, as healthy as anyone, power stuff, and only Moore had as a college career as strong or better. He’s a layup choice if available. A fairly straightforward case of the biggest most athletic guy at the highest Value position. Realistically I don’t think he will or should be available at 14, one of the handful or so real best prospects in this draft 

I’d agree with skipping out on Waldschmidt. Moore can hit so I expect him to be gone by the Tigers or Giants anyway, but if picking nits can question the raw power, defense, and maybe maxed frame. I liken him to Isaac Paredes in that there’s respeck for the resume and technique, but at the same time see him as a very 1.0 selection for Schlubs/Cubs dinging defense and position with maybe a maxed frame

I’m bigger and bigger on Janek as the draft gets closer among the college position players and RHHs likely to be there at 14. Like Yesavage there’s just a well rounded mix of present power, projection, production, overall experience yada yada that could make him a quick mover with a high ceiling in the pros 

This is how I look at it as well. Sadly I agree, I don't see him falling to 14.

[Jason Ross]

Good information on Ty Nichols and his social media: he's recently followed five players and they're the only five players he's followed since last draft. Nichols is the area scout who was credited with Jaxson Wiggins (this is important!) and Cade Horton the last two years. He's someone to follow and who holds water on draft day, so any number of these names could be called, and I'd bet at least one does. 

- Carson Wiggins (yes, his brother is Jaxson). Carson is a RHP committed to Arkansas (shocker), my guess is that he isn't a 2nd round overslot, but could be a later round, or 11+ round overslot like Hope or Wheat. Was invited to Texas as a top-40 player but Prospects Live had him off their top-100 prep players and in the HM section. 

- Slade Caldwell is an slight-framed CF'er committed to Ole Miss. Very athletic, not a ton of power. Feels like a mid-round overslot or 11+ round overslot

- Eli Buxton is a RHP/1b/OF who stands 6"6. My guess is he's a pitcher at the next level from what I can find on him. He's committed to Arizona State, an easier commit to yank out of with money. 

- Alex Grant is a LHP committed to Vandy. I can't find a ton on him. Looks like he sits 92 mph with the fastball, though others I've seen he tops out at 88mph. He's from Connecticut, not a hot bed of baseball, so probably why I'm struggling. Vanderbilt commits are traditionally some of the hardest to breakout of, I'm having a hard time guessing where he'd be picked. Vandy has "2nd round" feel to it, but there's just a dearth of information

Edit: Based on location, I'm not sure this is the same Alex Grant. There are two Alex Grants in this draft. The other four are all from OK, AR, and KS, but there's another Alex Grant, another LHP, from Texas. I think that might be who it is based on Nichols area usually being that area and not CT 

He's a LHP, with sinking action. 3 pitch mix. No velo readouts. No commitment information I can find. Sounds like he's a projectable LHP. That's...that's like it.

- Eli Lovich is an OF'er also committed to Arkansas. He's lanky and tall, 6"4, 175lbs. Looks like he's pitched in the past, but everything I can find is about him as a hitter, so I'd assume he's a hitter next level. Looks like a Cody Bellinger, tall and lanky type, with the arm I'd assume CF is on the table. Kansas player of the year. That feels like a 2nd round overslot potential. 

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Good information on Ty Nichols and his social media: he's recently followed five players and they're the only five players he's followed since last draft. Nichols is the area scout who was credited with Jaxson Wiggins (this is important!) and Cade Horton the last two years. He's someone to follow and who holds water on draft day, so any number of these names could be called, and I'd bet at least one does. 

- Carson Wiggins (yes, his brother is Jaxson). Carson is a RHP committed to Arkansas (shocker), my guess is that he isn't a 2nd round overslot, but could be a later round, or 11+ round overslot like Hope or Wheat.

- Slade Caldwell is an slight-framed CF'er committed to Ole Miss. Very athletic, not a ton of power. Feels like a mid-round overslot or 11+ round overslot

- Eli Buxton is a RHP/1b/OF who stands 6"6. My guess is he's a pitcher at the next level from what I can find on him. He's committed to Arizona State, an easier commit to yank out of with money. 

- Alex Grant is a LHP committed to Vandy. I can't find a ton on him. Looks like he sits 92 mph with the fastball, though others I've seen he tops out at 88mph. He's from Connecticut, not a hot bed of baseball, so probably why I'm struggling. Vanderbilt commits are traditionally some of the hardest to breakout of, I'm having a hard time guessing where he'd be picked. Vandy has "2nd round" feel to it, but there's just a dearth of information

Edit: Based on location, I'm not sure this is the same Alex Grant. There are two Alex Grants in this draft. The other four are all from OK, AR, and KS, but there's another Alex Grant, another LHP, from Texas. I think that might be who it is? 

He's a LHP, with sinking action. 3 pitch mix. No velo readouts. No commitment information I can find.

- Eli Lovich is an OF'er also committed to Arkansas. He's lanky and tall, 6"4, 175lbs. Looks like he's pitched in the past, but everything I can find is about him as a hitter, so I'd assume he's a hitter next level. Looks like a Cody Bellinger, tall and lanky type, with the arm I'd assume CF is on the table. Kansas player of the year. That feels like a 2nd round overslot potential. 

This is primo sleuthing, good stuff. 

Also the Cubs being obligated to take at least one arm from Arkansas every year is one of those things I always forget until the guy gets popped and then 5 days later I forget it again for another 360 days.  Good reminder of that being a demo to keep an eye out for day 2 or early day 3

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This is primo sleuthing, good stuff. 

Also the Cubs being obligated to take at least one arm from Arkansas every year is one of those things I always forget until the guy gets popped and then 5 days later I forget it again for another 360 days.  Good reminder of that being a demo to keep an eye out for day 2 or early day 3

Only can accept half of the sleuthing! The guy who runs Savermetrics (not sure if you're familiar with him - he breaks almost every Cub signing on twitter) was a PSD Alum and a friend of mine. There's a small discord of ~10 or so us from the old haunt who still keep in touch and he's one of the guys. So he does all of the social media stuff...dude's a guru. So I can't take credit for the follows. There's a strong correlation between follows and Cubs draft picks. So it's a fun way to preview where the Cubs might go. With Nichols, it counts even more.

All of the scouting and information is on my end, however. So he gives me the names and I go digging through websites and google until I can find stuff. Sometimes, it's easy, and other times, they're both named "Alex Grant" and are left handed pitchers and I'm not entirely sure which horsefeathers guy it is!

But yeah, the Arkansas connect is real. The second he sent me the name "Carson Wiggins" I was 98% certain I knew it was Jaxson's brother because of it.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Good information on Ty Nichols and his social media: he's recently followed five players and they're the only five players he's followed since last draft. Nichols is the area scout who was credited with Jaxson Wiggins (this is important!) and Cade Horton the last two years. He's someone to follow and who holds water on draft day, so any number of these names could be called, and I'd bet at least one does. 

He also is credited with Jordan Wicks so he's gotten a first or second rounder in each of the last three drafts.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Also, here is how BA ranked these five guys in their top 500:

• Carson Wiggins: 78
• Slade Caldwell: 19 - I really like him but I'm guessing a team with a lot more slot money/draft picks will be able to pick him late first or in the second
• Eli Buxton: NR
• Alex Grant: NR
• Eli Lovich: 475 - BA says he's more intriguing to scouts as a pitcher and he sounds like one of the guys the Cubs throw about $125-$200k at on Day 3 and will take a few years to leave Mesa

[Jason Ross]

50 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Also, here is how BA ranked these five guys in their top 500:

• Carson Wiggins: 78
• Slade Caldwell: 19 - I really like him but I'm guessing a team with a lot more slot money/draft picks will be able to pick him late first or in the second
• Eli Buxton: NR
• Alex Grant: NR
• Eli Lovich: 475 - BA says he's more intriguing to scouts as a pitcher and he sounds like one of the guys the Cubs throw about $125-$200k at on Day 3 and will take a few years to leave Mesa

Caldwell at 19?! Man, my internet sleuthing was way off there. Everything I read on him made me feel somewhat "whelmed". Like a Bradford from last year. Why I guessed on the 3rd or so. Ole Miss is an SEC commit so that's never cheap, but I wasn't super jazzed there as a top-20 guy. Feels like a Will Taylor type a few years ago, as well. Actually I like that more than a Bradford comp.

 

Carson makes sense at 78. Puts him in that possible 2nd/3rd round over or later in the draft as he drops a bit due to signability. Saw he got invited to the Rangers prospect shindig in November as a top-40 guy, and then PL had him as an HM...so late 70s splits the general difference. 

 

Interesting on Lovich from BA. The PG and other articles on him kept talking about hitting. They *did* mention his throwing motion from the OF but it was giving me big "this guy is a bat" over "this guy is an arm" vibes. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

He also is credited with Jordan Wicks so he's gotten a first or second rounder in each of the last three drafts.

Wicks! horsefeathers, I knew I was forgetting someone. Which tracks, because Wicks is a K-State guy and Nichols is the guy for that area.

[CubinNY]

As a more or less casual observer of amateur baseball and the draft I truly admire your interest and dedication. 

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

As a more or less casual observer of amateur baseball and the draft I truly admire your interest and dedication. 

We all have our things, right? 

I remember watching the Baez/Vogelbach draft at my favorite bar. I requested they put that on the TV and being quite happy with how that turned out (was really hoping for Lindor or Starling to drop. One was better than the other haha). I was the only dork in the bar who gave a horsefeathers. Even my friends were miffed. 

I'm used to being the oddball who cares about some random 18 year old shortstop out of southern Cal and why we should all be jazzed about his glove in six years time. But that's what's cool about forums and this place; I get to write dorky articles and discuss this nonsense with people who somewhat care about that oddball niche I have. Sucks for yall. 🤣

[Tryptamine]

57 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

We all have our things, right? 

I remember watching the Baez/Vogelbach draft at my favorite bar. I requested they put that on the TV and being quite happy with how that turned out (was really hoping for Lindor or Starling to drop. One was better than the other haha). I was the only dork in the bar who gave a horsefeathers. Even my friends were miffed. 

I'm used to being the oddball who cares about some random 18 year old shortstop out of southern Cal and why we should all be jazzed about his glove in six years time. But that's what's cool about forums and this place; I get to write dorky articles and discuss this nonsense with people who somewhat care about that oddball niche I have. Sucks for yall. 🤣

I usually take work off for the first two days of the draft. For whatever reason, outside of the playoffs, the draft and the trade deadline are my favorite parts of the season. 

[Jason Ross]

37 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I usually take work off for the first two days of the draft. For whatever reason, outside of the playoffs, the draft and the trade deadline are my favorite parts of the season. 

Best thing about being a teacher is that I've got the summer off and can draft-dork it out. Complicating things a bit this year is a move I'm in the process of completing on Friday, but I should be back online by midday Monday if the internet company doesn't brush me off! 

[Jason Ross]

Kiley McDaniels posted his final tier lists. Names of interest to the Cubs (and myself): 

Tibbs at 11 (45+)
Yesevage at 14 (final 45+)
Waldschmidt at 15 (top 45)
King at 16
Smith at 17
Malcolm Moore at 20

[Named After Maddux]

Ty Nichols is an extremely well-respected name in the organization. He could have easily been a cross-checker for the Cubs if he wanted but prefers the Area Scout responsibilities. 

Those names are all interesting to watch. Another to keep in mind is Garrett Shull

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Can someone more plugged in than me share what the main knocks are on Cam Smith?  He had HS pedigree, made adjustments with plate discipline and hit in both the Cape and ACC, has a good frame and projects as best I can tell to be a MLB 3B(potentially even a good one).  Is there bearishness on him getting to enough raw power, or worries about growing off 3B?  Feels like compared to many others I don't see the blinking red warning sign, yet in mocks I don't ever see him in the top 10 and often falls closer to 20.

[Tryptamine]

15 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Can someone more plugged in than me share what the main knocks are on Cam Smith?  He had HS pedigree, made adjustments with plate discipline and hit in both the Cape and ACC, has a good frame and projects as best I can tell to be a MLB 3B(potentially even a good one).  Is there bearishness on him getting to enough raw power, or worries about growing off 3B?  Feels like compared to many others I don't see the blinking red warning sign, yet in mocks I don't ever see him in the top 10 and often falls closer to 20.

I'm certainly not as well informed as others, but for me I think it has more to do with that he's kind of a guy that projects as an average MLB 3B both offensively and defensively. It's just kind of a bland pick. He's the kind of guy I envision being someone who goes out and puts up 2-2.5 fWAR annually on like a 100-105 wRC+. That has value for sure, but it's a pretty limited upside unless he actually taps into what others have called his plus power potential.