2024 MLB Draft Thread

[JD94]

Hagen Smith LHP from Arkansas struck out 17 in 6 innings against Oregon St tonight. FB touched 99 with a wicked slider and decent changeup. He won’t make it to us, but I’m a baseball junkie and I love the draft. 
 

I would bet Chase Burns goes 1:1. The stuff is there and Wake Forrest has the most advanced pitch lab in college baseball. 
 

I’m currently a big Braden Montgomery fan for the Cubs pick. I love the bat and he won’t pitch at the next level, but his fastball is nearing triple digits. That will absolutely play from RF. Excited to see him in the SEC this year. 

[JD94]

1 minute ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Lol we posted about Hagen at the same time. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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14. Cubs — Jacob Cozart, C, NC State

Cozart continues a run of North Carolina college products in a great year for the state. Like Caleb Lomavita, he should benefit by being a college catcher who’s putting up offensive numbers. Through 15 games Cozart is slashing .351/.519/.649 with five home runs, a 25.3% walk rate and a 15.2% strikeout rate.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Our friend Greg Z made his first mock: 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Bonus pool and slot values are out.

The Cubs have the 19th highest pool at $9,802,300.

1.14: $5,070,700
2.54: $1,681,200
3.90: $826,000
4.120: $600,800
5.153: $435,600
6.182: $337,000
7.212: $263,600
8.242: $213,900
9.272: $192,100
10.302: $181,400

[We Got The Whole 9]

Some of the numbers these college kids are producing right now defy human comprehension. There's like 20 guys that are averaging a HR every other game or better. Condon has 19 HR in 29 G LOL

[CubinNY]

I'm looking at the consensus draft board and there are two second basemen and three first basemen in the top 5. Is that because it's early or is this a weird year?

[Outshined_One]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I'm looking at the consensus draft board and there are two second basemen and three first basemen in the top 5. Is that because it's early or is this a weird year?

I think both are true at this point.  There's depth in the college ranks, but this isn't like past years where we're likely to see a guy go wire-to-wire as the favorite to be the #1 overall pick, or with a group of HS players who have been followed under a microscope since Little League (2022).  As I stated elsewhere, this seems like the sort of draft where the combined career MLB WAR for picks 11-20 ends up being higher than picks 1-10.

That being said, while the HS guys are a bit underwhelming at the moment, there is a decent amount of potential in that group and we're still early in the season.  This could be the sort of year where we see a bunch of pop-up guys from cold weather high schools show up in the first 100 picks.

[Jason Ross]

19 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

I think both are true at this point.  There's depth in the college ranks, but this isn't like past years where we're likely to see a guy go wire-to-wire as the favorite to be the #1 overall pick, or with a group of HS players who have been followed under a microscope since Little League (2022).  As I stated elsewhere, this seems like the sort of draft where the combined career MLB WAR for picks 11-20 ends up being higher than picks 1-10.

That being said, while the HS guys are a bit underwhelming at the moment, there is a decent amount of potential in that group and we're still early in the season.  This could be the sort of year where we see a bunch of pop-up guys from cold weather high schools show up in the first 100 picks.

Exactly. Honestly, I'm really excited about this draft. I think it's really going to be interesting to see where the Cubs go here. Their scouting department has done a relatively good job finding undervalued players in the last few years; Cade Horton off TJS, Jaxson Wiggins/Will Sanders who had 1st round hype at one point but dropped in a thin-college-arm draft. I'm curious to see where they go picking in the 20's in a draft that isn't considered the best and where they see the value.

[CubinNY]

Law's initial impression of this years draft prospects

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This draft is really atrocious after the top tier or two — there’s a very strong group of eight college players who should be the first eight picks in some order, then a decent second tier of guys from the college and high school ranks that maybe gets us to about pick 20, and then the position player group and the college pitchers just kind of fall apart. There are certainly interesting players beyond that, and if you are willing to swim in the high school pitching pond there are plenty of those guys to sign, but this year’s draft is going to have a lot of first rounders who wouldn’t go nearly that high in a typical draft.

 

 https://theathletic.com/5421487/2024/04/18/mlb-draft-2024-prospect-rankings-top-50-keith-law/

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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14. Cubs — Seaver King, SS/OF, Wake Forest

Like Kurtz, King started the year a bit slowly and scouts wondered whether or not his D-II success with Wingate would translate fully to the ACC. He’s figured some things out over the last few weeks though  and is currently riding a 10-game hitting streak.

On the season he’s hitting .321/.380/.642 with 13 home runs, eight stolen bases, a 12.5% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate. King expands the zone too often, but he does have a unique ability to get the barrel to all quadrants of the zone and outside of it and still drive the ball hard. His exit velocities could separate him from other middle infielders in the college ranks. Some scouts have also been impressed with the defensive ability he’s shown at shortstop this spring. 

 

 

[mul21]

53 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Cubs fans got a preview of 2.0 with the post-2016 1.0: noooooo one is Actually any good by the time the rules make it OK for them to seek more money.

Please elaborate in detail which players from the 2016 team should have been signed long term for the money they were asking for and tell me why that would have been a sound investment for the team.  Your insistence on this horsefeathers line of thinking is tired, old and you should stop doing it.  We all get the point and I think largely agree, but going down this road specifically with the 2016 team is just plain dumb and wrong.  And for the love of god just speak normal English instead of the cliched idiotic  phrasing you continue to use that makes most of your posts impossible to read.

[mul21]

30 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

That’s not even close to the point being made and paaaaaaaaassssss. You’re missing that there are mechanisms in place long before guys are even in a position to ask like fewer reps, later debuts, the draft slowly getting older *and* deeper exacerbating both, bonus pools, slot bonuses, etc etc. Every single one of those and more is meant to chip away at earning potential 

No, I'm not missing the point.  I actually agree with you, but your insistence on being weird af about it and using horrible examples like the 2016 Cubs makes what you're trying to say a losing argument.  There are probably very few people here who would be like "Yeah, what the Cubs did to Kris Bryant was totally fine and cool" even though it got another year of control for the team.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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14. Cubs: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State (No. 21)

After scuffling as a freshman, Smith turned it around and posted a .981 OPS on the Cape last summer. He’s more than kept it going this spring, with a .399/.478/.640 line while looking athletic at third in his sophomore-eligible season.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

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14. Chicago Cubs: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa

Another guy who could slide into the latter third of the round, Brecht has the size and arm strength to be a top-10 pick, but he’s far less polished than most of the college starter prospects in this draft. The team that takes him will have to be one willing and able to stomach a bigger risk. I didn’t just put him with the Cubs because he’s often compared to another wide receiver-turned-pitcher, Jeff Samardzija. I could also see the Cubs in on the next tier of college bats, including Tibbs, Cam Smith, and Carson Benge.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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14. Chicago Cubs

James Tibbs III, OF — Florida State
HOMETOWN: Marietta, GA
HEIGHT: 6-0
WEIGHT: 195
BAT/THROW: L-R

At this stage it almost seems unlikely Tibbs III could be available to the Cubs with the no. 14 overall pick, but we have heard they love the player and the bat. He’s mentioned so often above this pick that he could be off the board ten spots prior. Hell, we’ve heard his name attached to the Guardians at 1. But the Cubs like him, so here he is.

 

[Outshined_One]

2 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

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There seems to be a good amount of love for Lewis in this spot as new Scouting Director Frankie Piliere works to reshape the Marlins’ farm system.

 

[Tryptamine]

I'm late to the game this year in studying up on this year's prospects. Who should I be falling in love with who has that elite hit tool?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Outshined_One]

4 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm late to the game this year in studying up on this year's prospects. Who should I be falling in love with who has that elite hit tool?

Good news/bad news.  The good news is the draft was moved to July (thanks COVID!), so you've got plenty of time to get up to speed on prospects and pop-up guys.

The bad news is this draft isn't particularly exciting (yet).  There's still another month and a half to go, but everything still seems really muddled.  The only consensus appears to be Bazzana, Caglianone, and Condon are all likely to go Top 5, but even that's a bit shaky.

[Tryptamine]

2 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

Good news/bad news.  The good news is the draft was moved to July (thanks COVID!), so you've got plenty of time to get up to speed on prospects and pop-up guys.

The bad news is this draft isn't particularly exciting (yet).  There's still another month and a half to go, but everything still seems really muddled.  The only consensus appears to be Bazzana, Caglianone, and Condon are all likely to go Top 5, but even that's a bit shaky.

I do remember reading that the talent drops off a cliff after like #20.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I do remember reading that the talent drops off a cliff after like #20.

Seems to be a general consensus that the draft now has a drop off after the top 10 (6 college bats, 2 college pitchers, 2 prep SS):

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Industry evaluators' perception of the top of this draft class has taken a big step forward over the course of the season. It's a college-heavy group throughout the first round, with some solid high school and college pitching depth near the end of the round, and light on high school position players.
 

With a very clear tier of 10 players at the top (you can jump into my latest draft rankings for more on that), it's likely that group makes up eight or nine of the first 10 picks. I say eight or nine because financial incentives exist, given the draft's bonus pool structure, for at least one team in the top 10 picks to opt for savings for a later selection if they don't like the players and asking prices they're left with from that top group. The prospects who fell the furthest from my rankings are among the surprises you will find in this mock draft.