6/5 - Cubs (Hendricks) vs Padres (Snell): 8:10pm, Marquee

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Cubs can leave San Diego with a four-game series win tonight to kick off their west coast trip. Hard to consider that anything but a success.

Oh, and thanks to the Brewers drubbing the Reds three games in a row, the Cubs are now back in third place!

[UMFan83]

Not sure I'll thank the 1st place Brewers for sweeping a series (or the Pirates sweeping the Cardinals) but I guess its a little less humiliating to not be in last place.

Edited June 5, 2023 by UMFan83

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Not sure I'll thank the 1st place Brewers for sweeping a series (or the Pirates sweeping the Cardinals) but I guess its a little less humiliating to not be in last place.

Given the way this division is shaking out, I think the Brewers are clearly the best team in the division, with the caveat at some point their ridiculous number of injuries stop happening. I think the Cubs' best path to the postseason is using this relatively weak division to come in second with 85-ish wins and a Wild Card berth.

But if the Brewers' injuries continue, 85 wins might take the division itself. But Milwaukee has several guys on the mend so that would require a bunch of re-injuries to guys like Miley, Lauer, Adames, and Urias in the short-term and guys like Woodruff in the mid-term.

[CubinNY]

3 and 1 sure does look better than 2 and 2. Come on boys. 

[CubUgly]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Not sure I'll thank the 1st place Brewers for sweeping a series (or the Pirates sweeping the Cardinals) but I guess its a little less humiliating to not be in last place.

I'm good with the Pirates sweeping the Cards because I still don't believe the Pirates have the staying power for this year, and because it's the Cards.  But yeah I would have preferred a better showing from the Reds.  I would have sacrificed 3rd place to be closer to the Brew Crew for the here and now.

[PackLandVA]

Another lefty on the mound, so same lineup as yesterday? Maybe give Gomes knees a rest and swap positions with Miggy. 

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Given the way this division is shaking out, I think the Brewers are clearly the best team in the division, with the caveat at some point their ridiculous number of injuries stop happening. I think the Cubs' best path to the postseason is using this relatively weak division to come in second with 85-ish wins and a Wild Card berth.

But if the Brewers' injuries continue, 85 wins might take the division itself. But Milwaukee has several guys on the mend so that would require a bunch of re-injuries to guys like Miley, Lauer, Adames, and Urias in the short-term and guys like Woodruff in the mid-term.

I think St. Louis wins the division. They have a knack for acquiring talent at the deadline. However, they've never looked more out of sorts organizationally in my memory. From the acquisition of Willson to the promotion/demotion of Walker and their in-game managerial decisions, they looked very bad.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I think St. Louis wins the division. They have a knack for acquiring talent at the deadline. However, they've never looked more out of sorts organizationally in my memory. From the acquisition of Willson to the promotion/demotion of Walker and their in-game managerial decisions, they looked very bad.  

At some point, the devil magic runs out. Betting on continued devil magic after the cluster that team has been this season seems like a longshot.

It looked like they were going to make a run a few weeks ago but they're back to being 3-7 over their last ten. At some point, a bad team is just a bad team and it's not as if the Cardinals were free of concern going into the season (aging position players, shaky af rotation, etc).

Sure, it's possible they rebound but I wouldn't put their chance at the division above 20%, if even that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just checked FG and they're giving the Cards 18.2% chance to win the division, which tracks with my expectations.

But I still think the Brewers are clear favorites. They've gotten really lucky during this injury stretch by playing well over their run differential but that's a good thing for them. Those wins are in the books and a vastly different (and better) Brewers roster should be on the field a month from now.

Of course, sometimes snakebitten teams remain snakebitten.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cardinals need to play at a 98 win pace to match the pace of the last wild card team and 100 win pace for the current division lead.  They are closer to 1.8% odds for the division than 18% odds.

[mul21]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

I think St. Louis wins the division. They have a knack for acquiring talent at the deadline. However, they've never looked more out of sorts organizationally in my memory. From the acquisition of Willson to the promotion/demotion of Walker and their in-game managerial decisions, they looked very bad.  

As someone who lives down here and probably pays more attention to them than I'd like to admit, I think the only thing that saves them is firing Marmol.  It feels like the players know he's Mozeliak's puppet and add in how he called out O'Neill earlier in the year for not hustling without having a conversation with him first and it's created some significant locker room problems.  They aren't as good as they've been and expecting Goldy and Arenado to replicate last year was a fool's errand to begin with.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, mul21 said:

They aren't as good as they've been and expecting Goldy and Arenado to replicate last year was a fool's errand to begin with.

This is what surprises me so much about conversations about the Cardinals. So many people seemed to ignore the fact those two guys were worth what, like 12 wins last season? And they’re both well into their 30s. A *good* outcome is them being worth -4 wins this year compared to last year. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

would have been nice to not have 2 hitters punched out on balls that inning

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Is the Petco Hawkeye system busted or something, this is a late 90s strike zone

[Derwood]

Guess MLBN made a last minute change in games, because all week this was listed as the primary game tonight, but now it's not even listed

[Transmogrified Tiger]

one of the most tactical ejections I've ever seen, wonder if it'll work

[UMFan83]

And Hendricks is getting hit

[UMFan83]

 

 

This seems a bit unfair

[PackLandVA]

42 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

one of the most tactical ejections I've ever seen, wonder if it'll work

Cliff notes version of why the ejection happened? I missed it. I'm guessing the Cuzzi strike zone.

Edited June 6, 2023 by PackLandVA

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 minutes ago, PackLandVA said:

Cliff notes version of why the ejection happened? I missed it. I'm guessing the Cuzzi strike zone.

Yep, after the egregious calls at the plate, the next half inning Cuzzi started ringing up a strike for Hendricks(which was not a strike but closer than all the strike 3s from the last inning) and then stopped, then Ross said some magic words from the dugout and got tossed.  He came out to get his money's worth and very clearly told him he had already missed 5 calls in less than 2 innings.

[UMFan83]

What are the chances Brock is thinking "How was I able to make a Twins and Brewers board thrive but this stupid Cubs forum is dead?"