What do you expect from Dansby Swanson in 2023?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I really can't get a read on that guy, which made it really hard to evaluate the value of any contract offer.

 

He had a really nice 2020 but so did lots of guys. I basically don't count anyone's 2020, good or bad.

 

His offense slumped quite a bit in 2021 with a 99 wRC+.

 

Last season, he surged forward offensively with a 115 wRC+.

 

His defense remains good so he'll be positive value no matter what happens with the bat but what kind of value do you see Swanson providing in the next 2-3 seasons?

[CubinNY]

I really can't get a read on that guy, which made it really hard to evaluate the value of any contract offer.

 

He had a really nice 2020 but so did lots of guys. I basically don't count anyone's 2020, good or bad.

 

His offense slumped quite a bit in 2021 with a 99 wRC+.

 

Last season, he surged forward offensively with a 115 wRC+.

 

His defense remains good so he'll be positive value no matter what happens with the bat but what kind of value do you see Swanson providing in the next 2-3 seasons?

.260/.360/.420 slash, High 20s HRs/year, lots of Ks, good to great defense. He's not a difference maker, but he raises the win total floor.

[champaignchris]

I really can't get a read on that guy, which made it really hard to evaluate the value of any contract offer.

 

He had a really nice 2020 but so did lots of guys. I basically don't count anyone's 2020, good or bad.

 

His offense slumped quite a bit in 2021 with a 99 wRC+.

 

Last season, he surged forward offensively with a 115 wRC+.

 

His defense remains good so he'll be positive value no matter what happens with the bat but what kind of value do you see Swanson providing in the next 2-3 seasons?

.260/.360/.420 slash, High 20s HRs/year, lots of Ks, good to great defense. He's not a difference maker, but he raises the win total floor.

 

Maybe a little higher SLG and little lower OBP, but yeah, basically this.

[muntjack]

I'll take the under on those numbers. .250/.320/.400

[Sammy Sofa]

Based on his name, some kind of bag of magic coins or an enchanted amulet or something else that will help us on our noble quest to save the kingdom of Eltheria.

[Brock Beauchamp]

.260/.360/.420 slash, High 20s HRs/year, lots of Ks, good to great defense. He's not a difference maker, but he raises the win total floor.

 

That's a pretty aggressive isoD. His career mark is around .065 and it was even lower than that in 2022.

[Bertz]

There's a bit of a losing the forest for the trees deal with Swanson because he's not Turner or Correa. But over the last three years among shortstops he's 4th in WAR, 3rd in dongs, and 3rd in defensive value via Statcast. He's really good, he's just more All Star than MVP.

 

Swanson's going to strike out more than you'd like, which is going to keep the OBP from getting all that high. But something like his 3 year average of .265/.324/.451 is about right to expect. Maybe juice the power numbers a little more, as Statcast thinks he'd have hit a lot more dongs if he'd played in the NL Central parks the last few years.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think Swanson will play *every day*(he's missed 2 games in the last 3 seasons), be a good defender, is gonna hit for his share of power(especially in Wrigley), and should steal a sneaky amount of bases(especially with new rules). That puts his floor around a 3-3.5 win player barring injury. That's good, but that's also the type of overall production you pay Jameson Taillon 17 million to put up. The unknowns for me are if his batting average/BABIP will stay high enough to be a 115 wRC+ guy instead of 100-105, and if his defense is elite vs. just good. Those are the things that take him from 3 win floor to repeating his 6 win 2022.

[jersey cubs fan]

I expect Dansby to bring me a turkey on his vacation away from worky

[WrigleyField 22]

Based on his name, some kind of bag of magic coins or an enchanted amulet or something else that will help us on our noble quest to save the kingdom of Eltheria.

Not just the name. Look at the kid. He's definitely a secret prince who will win victory and the princess on a epic quest.

[champaignchris]

Put another way, he's about 2016 Addison Russell. Maybe not quite the defender, but with a little more pop.

 

2016 Addison Russell was a very good player. He was also about the 7th best player on that team, pitchers included. Swanson is likely one of the top 3 players on this year's team, again pitchers included, and therein lies the problem.

 

Russell and Swanson were born 18 days apart. We can almost envision Swanson's contract as the extension Russell would have been signed to had he not disintegrated as both a baseball player and a human being.

[jersey cubs fan]

Put another way, he's about 2016 Addison Russell. Maybe not quite the defender, but with a little more pop.

 

2016 Addison Russell was a very good player. He was also about the 7th best player on that team, pitchers included. Swanson is likely one of the top 3 players on this year's team, again pitchers included, and therein lies the problem.

 

Russell and Swanson were born 18 days apart. We can almost envision Swanson's contract as the extension Russell would have been signed to had he not disintegrated as both a baseball player and a human being.

Hahahahaha, imagine a 2016 cub signing an extension

[squally1313]

Put another way, he's about 2016 Addison Russell. Maybe not quite the defender, but with a little more pop.

 

2016 Addison Russell was a very good player. He was also about the 7th best player on that team, pitchers included. Swanson is likely one of the top 3 players on this year's team, again pitchers included, and therein lies the problem.

 

Russell and Swanson were born 18 days apart. We can almost envision Swanson's contract as the extension Russell would have been signed to had he not disintegrated as both a baseball player and a human being.

 

For better or for worse, that was a 108 win team that probably underperformed. Everyone in charge seems content to shoot for low 90s.

[Backtobanks]

Put another way, he's about 2016 Addison Russell. Maybe not quite the defender, but with a little more pop.

 

2016 Addison Russell was a very good player. He was also about the 7th best player on that team, pitchers included. Swanson is likely one of the top 3 players on this year's team, again pitchers included, and therein lies the problem.

 

Russell and Swanson were born 18 days apart. We can almost envision Swanson's contract as the extension Russell would have been signed to had he not disintegrated as both a baseball player and a human being.

 

For better or for worse, that was a 108 win team that probably underperformed. Everyone in charge seems content to shoot for low 90s.

 

More like low 80s.

[CyHawk_Cub]

It feels like The Dream is perpetual wild card contention, so yeah, low 80's expected wins, hope and pray for good luck for better.

[PackLandVA]

While not expected, World Series MVP would work.

[CubinNY]

It feels like The Dream is perpetual wild card contention, so yeah, low 80's expected wins, hope and pray for good luck for better.

Back to the MacPhail/Hendry days of wanting to "compete within the division".

 

The Cubs are going to compete within the division, but they are not a great team unless the pitching really improves. They should hit more HR and have an improved offense and improved defense, at least up the middle.