Cubs sign Swanson (7/177)

[Ding Dong Johnson]

This one doesn’t bother me, especially if comparing strictly to Correa. I also reserve the right to complain about it at any point in the future.

[Bertz]

My ideal path forward from here is something like:

 

- Nate Eovaldi (2/40)

- Trade for Danny Jansen

- Sign Taylor Rogers (1/10)

- Sign Michael Brantley (1/15)

- Trade Madrigal for the best young reliever he can net you

 

You blow past the luxury tax, but so much comes off after this year that you can be very active in FA again next winter and still duck back under the tax then. And that's a really good and deep team. Light on stars but good essentially up and down the entire roster.

[Derwood]

Nope, this makes the Correa contract look like an absolute steal. People need to stop being trained to care about years on a contract. You'll never sign anyone good anymore if you care.

 

Huh?

 

Swanson: 7/177 = $25M AAV

 

Correa: 13/350 - $27M AAV

 

Basically the same per year, but half the commitment. Why is that horrible?

Correa is a lot better than Swanson.

 

And could end up being the next Heyward, but we'll see.

[Post Count Padder]

Finally.

 

That's a surprisingly reasonable deal, especially considering the other contracts this off-season. I was expecting like 9 years 250 mil. I'll take this. Now get a catcher and another reliever and another starter and you have something.

[sneakypower]

The Cubs have now added the 4th most AAV in free agency(Mets, Yankees, Giants), and one of those(Yankees) spent most of their money keeping existing players.

we're still in the process of backfilling like 6-8 holes we allowed to open up in the last couple years, this sounds so weirdly effusive

[17 Seconds]

 

Huh?

 

Swanson: 7/177 = $25M AAV

 

Correa: 13/350 - $27M AAV

 

Basically the same per year, but half the commitment. Why is that horrible?

Correa is a lot better than Swanson.

 

And could end up being the next Heyward, but we'll see.

 

this is such a lazy comp

[mias_tisg]

 

Huh?

 

Swanson: 7/177 = $25M AAV

 

Correa: 13/350 - $27M AAV

 

Basically the same per year, but half the commitment. Why is that horrible?

Correa is a lot better than Swanson.

 

And could end up being the next Heyward, but we'll see.

If Swanson hits like last year, he'll probably be fine. But I can't remember the last time a long-term contract for a defensive-first player ever worked out more than a few years.

[sneakypower]

Jed Hoyer try not to buy high on a career year challenge (impossible)

[Cubswin11]

This deal seems fine, even as someone who doesn’t really like Swanson, go make like 3-5 more solid moves and we can at least be a WC team.

[17 Seconds]

Jed Hoyer try not to buy high on a career year challenge (impossible)

 

seems like he's being paid for 3-4 wins, not the 6+ he had last year

[Bertz]

Jed Hoyer try not to buy high on a career year challenge (impossible)

 

Dansby Swanson is 13th in position player WAR the last three years ahead of players such as Carlos Correa, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Rafael Devers.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don’t actually think anyone expects Correa to play 13 years. If he does $27m might be an average MLB contract by then lol

 

I think this is something worth thinking about when evaluating super long term deals, I've seen that sentiment on Twitter(comparing what an average FA salary was in 2009), and I'm curious what we think would drive revenues high enough that it would come to pass. The last decade saw an explosion in TV money to support that growth, but that pace seems to be decelerating, especially for local deals. I lack imagination so I won't say it's not possible(e.g. in 2030 everyone pays $100/month for MLB.VR), but I think it's worth thinking about the assumption that it absolutely will grow at the same pace.

[Derwood]

Correa is a lot better than Swanson.

 

And could end up being the next Heyward, but we'll see.

 

this is such a lazy comp

 

Just saying that Heyward was coming off of three straight high fWAR years before signing with the Cubs, when he then immediately turned into a pumpkin. Correa has already had some back problems, so he's a gamble.

 

None of us know how any of this will turn out, though, so we're all just arguing to argue.

[17 Seconds]

 

And could end up being the next Heyward, but we'll see.

 

this is such a lazy comp

 

Just saying that Heyward was coming off of three straight high fWAR years before signing with the Cubs, when he then immediately turned into a pumpkin. Correa has already had some back problems, so he's a gamble.

 

None of us know how any of this will turn out, though, so we're all just arguing to argue.

 

wait, you were comparing correa to heyward? that's even weirder

[Derwood]

 

this is such a lazy comp

 

Just saying that Heyward was coming off of three straight high fWAR years before signing with the Cubs, when he then immediately turned into a pumpkin. Correa has already had some back problems, so he's a gamble.

 

None of us know how any of this will turn out, though, so we're all just arguing to argue.

 

wait, you were comparing correa to heyward? that's even weirder

 

I'm comparing two players signing huge contracts, that's all

[Little Slide Rooter]

If nothing else, The Chicago Cubs have officially cornered the market on Caucasian middle infielders.

[Bertz]

 

So Swanson got within a rounding error of exactly what the ZiPS projections thought he should have gotten.

[mias_tisg]

 

this is such a lazy comp

 

Just saying that Heyward was coming off of three straight high fWAR years before signing with the Cubs, when he then immediately turned into a pumpkin. Correa has already had some back problems, so he's a gamble.

 

None of us know how any of this will turn out, though, so we're all just arguing to argue.

 

wait, you were comparing correa to heyward? that's even weirder

Yeah Swanson is the Heyward here. Almost the same deal, defensive-first player. Heyward had even more of a track-record of at least being good.

[David]

Much prefer this over Correa and his deal

Nope, this makes the Correa contract look like an absolute steal. People need to stop being trained to care about years on a contract. You'll never sign anyone good anymore if you care.

 

Huh?

 

Swanson: 7/177 = $25M AAV

 

Correa: 13/350 - $27M AAV

 

Basically the same per year, but half the commitment. Why is that horrible?

 

Because Correa is a lot better?

[sneakypower]

Jed Hoyer try not to buy high on a career year challenge (impossible)

 

Dansby Swanson is 13th in position player WAR the last three years ahead of players such as Carlos Correa, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Rafael Devers.

because of the career year

[Transmogrified Tiger]

My ideal path forward from here is something like:

 

- Nate Eovaldi (2/40)

- Trade for Danny Jansen

- Sign Taylor Rogers (1/10)

- Sign Michael Brantley (1/15)

- Trade Madrigal for the best young reliever he can net you

 

You blow past the luxury tax, but so much comes off after this year that you can be very active in FA again next winter and still duck back under the tax then. And that's a really good and deep team. Light on stars but good essentially up and down the entire roster.

 

I think especially if you're cruising past the luxury tax it's a tough pill to swallow to sign Eovaldi, but I don't have a super high opinion of him though. The upside is there compared to your Smylys and Klubers, but I just don't think that HR rate is gonna stay low enough to be more than an averageish SP.

 

For me, the biggest questions are 1) is the LT a hard limit now that you've banked Swanson? 2) can you trade for a C that's better than the remaining FA(Jansen, maybe Murphy, etc)? and 3) what type of arm can you get for Madrigal? 4) what AAV is gonna be needed to extend Hoerner now?

[CubinNY]

It was Turner, Correra, Swanson for me. Going home with choice three is better than going home alone.

[mias_tisg]

The AAV is going to matter a lot unless you have an owner you trust to spend, regardless of luxury tax. I'd rather have the good player in Correa for 5 more years with the chance of adding another star player with him than the much worse player in Swanson at the same AAV. The new model in MLB for the top free agents is going to be giving them 10+ year contracts so if you're uncomfortable with that now, you'll never sign the top free agent in any class. In which case, the Cubs likely won't matter anyways.

[Bertz]

Jed Hoyer try not to buy high on a career year challenge (impossible)

 

Dansby Swanson is 13th in position player WAR the last three years ahead of players such as Carlos Correa, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Rafael Devers.

because of the career year

 

Just from 20-21 he was 34th in WAR, still ahead of Trout and Devers, also ahead of Nolan Arenado, Sean Murphy, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Brandon Nimmo, Trevor Story, etc.

[Andy]

Still more than I'd like the Cubs to be paying a Swanson level player, but not as bad as I feared. Let's hope he keeps hitting.