Cubs sign Bellinger

[Tim]

As a baseline, it's a fine move that filled a need. Fix the swing one more year past injury and with a new voice and you've got an MVP candidate.

 

Most likely outcome is that it's...fine.

[mias_tisg]

Have to go after better bats now. No Dansby Swanson and Christian Vazquez. If Bellinger is truly broken, you're looking at an awful offense if you sign those two.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

I always forget how buyouts are handled for LT purposes but since mutual options are never exercised it seems intentional

 

EDIT: Roster Resource counts the full 17.5 towards LT payroll, so the buyout structure is probably a cashflow thing

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/braves-open-to-exceeding-luxury-tax-threshold.html

 

That’s particularly true of the Braves, who have signed a number of players to early-career extensions with salaries that escalate later in the deal. For example, the Spencer Strider deal contains a $12.5MM tax hit, but he’ll actually make just $1MM next season.

 

Roster Resource projects Atlanta’s actual 2023 spending just under $196MM at the moment. Toscano writes the organization is placing a greater emphasis on that figure than on their current CBT number.

 

Might be a good sign for going over? I don't read too good

 

I'm not sure what it means for going over, but if it says anything I think it says there's going to be more up front spending, which typically only happens for big deals via signing bonuses or occasionally with front loading.

[d_money]

The only positive out of this is the 1 year deal. No amount of good defense will make up for the lack of production at the plate.

[jersey cubs fan]

17.5M seems like an awful lot to bet on someone bouncing back without compelling evidence he will.

 

He was "worth" 13.5 in like 140g last year despite being abysmal at the plate

 

(standard disclaimer about using $/WAR on low WAR guys but yeah it's not a lot of money)

It’s a fair amount of money for a very little amount of ability.

[jersey cubs fan]

As a baseline, it's a fine move that filled a need. Fix the swing one more year past injury and with a new voice and you've got an MVP candidate.

 

Most likely outcome is that it's...fine.

And fine puts you in 3rd place

[Tim]

As a baseline, it's a fine move that filled a need. Fix the swing one more year past injury and with a new voice and you've got an MVP candidate.

 

Most likely outcome is that it's...fine.

And fine puts you in 3rd place

If we look up in March and that's the best signing we've made, then I will agree with you.

[jersey cubs fan]

As a baseline, it's a fine move that filled a need. Fix the swing one more year past injury and with a new voice and you've got an MVP candidate.

 

Most likely outcome is that it's...fine.

And fine puts you in 3rd place

If we look up in March and that's the best signing we've made, then I will agree with you.

this team could easily sign an obviously better play than Bellinger and still struggle to secure 3rd place status.

[Tim]

^ 100%

 

The Pirates have been pretty active and not dumb so far, have about as much legit SP as Cubs with Contreras and a passable Keller

They also had the 27th ranked offense last year.

[Tim]

And fine puts you in 3rd place

If we look up in March and that's the best signing we've made, then I will agree with you.

this team could easily sign an obviously better play than Bellinger and still struggle to secure 3rd place status.

lol - so dramatic.

 

Let's talk in a month or so.

[squally1313]

Kinda shocked at the amount of dislike here. It's a one year deal for a dude who plays a really good defensive centerfield and first base. Am I missing a better center field option that only costs money? I don't think anyone wanted to throw 9 figures at already 30 years old Brandon Nimmo to be our CF for 5 years. If he sucks, which to be clear, him sucking is putting up a 92 wRC against righties, oh well. Can still make all those weird trades Tom's been talking about all offseason.

[Derwood]

Bad with new players is slightly better than bad with the same players

[jersey cubs fan]

:beg: o

Kinda shocked at the amount of dislike here. It's a one year deal for a dude who plays a really good defensive centerfield and first base. Am I missing a better center field option that only costs money? I don't think anyone wanted to throw 9 figures at already 30 years old Brandon Nimmo to be our CF for 5 years. If he sucks, which to be clear, him sucking is putting up a 92 wRC against righties, oh well. Can still make all those weird trades Tom's been talking about all offseason.

This is the same nonsense theory that gives poles the benefit of doubt for doing nothing last year. The cubs suck for being so bad that a bad player signing a one year deal is considered by some to be good. “Better than it was” isn’t good.

[UK]

Kinda shocked at the amount of dislike here. It's a one year deal for a dude who plays a really good defensive centerfield and first base. Am I missing a better center field option that only costs money? I don't think anyone wanted to throw 9 figures at already 30 years old Brandon Nimmo to be our CF for 5 years. If he sucks, which to be clear, him sucking is putting up a 92 wRC against righties, oh well. Can still make all those weird trades Tom's been talking about all offseason.

 

One would hope the Cubs 1st move of an off-season (premised on loose purse strings) would not consist of a rebound year to justify a contract.

[Tim]

Kinda shocked at the amount of dislike here. It's a one year deal for a dude who plays a really good defensive centerfield and first base. Am I missing a better center field option that only costs money? I don't think anyone wanted to throw 9 figures at already 30 years old Brandon Nimmo to be our CF for 5 years. If he sucks, which to be clear, him sucking is putting up a 92 wRC against righties, oh well. Can still make all those weird trades Tom's been talking about all offseason.

 

One would hope the Cubs 1st move of an off-season (premised on loose purse strings) would not consist of a rebound year to justify a contract.

Does it matter what sequence in which they occur?

[squally1313]

:beg: o

Kinda shocked at the amount of dislike here. It's a one year deal for a dude who plays a really good defensive centerfield and first base. Am I missing a better center field option that only costs money? I don't think anyone wanted to throw 9 figures at already 30 years old Brandon Nimmo to be our CF for 5 years. If he sucks' date=' which to be clear, him sucking is putting up a 92 wRC against righties, oh well. Can still make all those weird trades Tom's been talking about all offseason.[/quote']

This is the same nonsense theory that gives poles the benefit of doubt for doing nothing last year. The cubs suck for being so bad that a bad player signing a one year deal is considered by some to be good. “Better than it was” isn’t good.

Who did you want to play centerfield next year?

[jersey cubs fan]

:beg: o

Kinda shocked at the amount of dislike here. It's a one year deal for a dude who plays a really good defensive centerfield and first base. Am I missing a better center field option that only costs money? I don't think anyone wanted to throw 9 figures at already 30 years old Brandon Nimmo to be our CF for 5 years. If he sucks' date=' which to be clear, him sucking is putting up a 92 wRC against righties, oh well. Can still make all those weird trades Tom's been talking about all offseason.[/quote']

This is the same nonsense theory that gives poles the benefit of doubt for doing nothing last year. The cubs suck for being so bad that a bad player signing a one year deal is considered by some to be good. “Better than it was” isn’t good.

Who did you want to play centerfield next year?

A good baseball player

[squally1313]

:beg: o

This is the same nonsense theory that gives poles the benefit of doubt for doing nothing last year. The cubs suck for being so bad that a bad player signing a one year deal is considered by some to be good. “Better than it was” isn’t good.

Who did you want to play centerfield next year?

A good baseball player

Well Bellinger last year, at 1.7 fWAR, would have been 18th in baseball in team production for centerfield. Certainly not great, certainly better than the 0.3 we put up as a team. Looking around the rest of the roster, I don't see a lot of better options for 2023. Looking around free agency, unless you wanted Nimmo (and the ramifications of a $100+m deal), don't see much there either. If he sucks, too bad for PTR, and we can still explore all these trades people have tossed around without any concern of long term contract issues. But maybe he's good?

 

Just wrote that last sentence so you can snip the rest out and respond with something like 'but he won't be'.

[David]

Kinda shocked at the amount of dislike here. It's a one year deal for a dude who plays a really good defensive centerfield and first base. Am I missing a better center field option that only costs money? I don't think anyone wanted to throw 9 figures at already 30 years old Brandon Nimmo to be our CF for 5 years. If he sucks, which to be clear, him sucking is putting up a 92 wRC against righties, oh well. Can still make all those weird trades Tom's been talking about all offseason.

 

One would hope the Cubs 1st move of an off-season (premised on loose purse strings) would not consist of a rebound year to justify a contract.

 

what the horsefeathers does it matter if it's the first move or the tenth

[David]

“I don’t think the skill set’s changed,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “Certainly, he’s motivated. Maybe a change of scenery will be beneficial. I know (Cubs manager) David Ross. I know Jed. So the environment’s going to be good for him.”

 

The Cubs’ new hitting coach, Dustin Kelly, had a video meeting Monday with Bellinger that reportedly went very well, and the two discussed possible ways to get back to his MVP form. Kelly was a coach in the Dodgers’ minor-league system after Bellinger had already reached the big leagues, but he was around him for multiple spring trainings and at the 2020 alternate site. Kelly has a familiarity with the Dodgers’ hitting department, understands what Bellinger was doing and the messaging presented to him during his best years.

 

In addition, Cubs assistant hitting coach Johnny Washington was a minor-league coach with the Dodgers when Bellinger was coming up. So the relationships run deep.

 

After Bellinger’s shoulder injury, bad habits that developed included him being too far on his backside while also being under plane. Those are smaller issues in the Cubs’ eyes compared to Bellinger’s shoulder strength and stability. The hope is he’ll continue to regain range of motion in the shoulder, his confidence will grow and the mechanics that were impacted by the injury will be ironed out.

 

https://theathletic.com/3977499/2022/12/07/cubs-cody-bellinger-defense-moves/?redirected=1

[UK]

It doesn't matter what order but I'm still skeptical of them accomplishing what they need to.

 

Hope they prove me wrong but it'll be more difficult for them to get one of the big 3 SS, Rodon/Senga, & Contreras/Vazquez it'll be a disappointing offseason.

[CubinNY]

The hope is he’ll continue to regain range of motion in the shoulder, his confidence will grow and the mechanics that were impacted by the injury will be ironed out.

 

https://theathletic.com/3977499/2022/12/07/cubs-cody-bellinger-defense-moves/?redirected=1

That my friends is a bad gamble. If it hasn't healed in 2 years...

[squally1313]

It doesn't matter what order but I'm still skeptical of them accomplishing what they need to.

 

Hope they prove me wrong but it'll be more difficult for them to get one of the big 3 SS, Rodon/Senga, & Contreras/Vazquez it'll be a disappointing offseason.

None of us are going to know just how much money is available, and if committing $80m or so to Bellinger and Jameson takes us out of the running for someone like Correa…we probably weren’t seriously involved anyways and there are bigger problems. What these signings could do is signal our desire and potential ability to compete immediately, which at the very least alleviates some concerns if Correa is picking between something like us and Minnesota (who I wouldn’t think would win out otherwise).

[UK]

It doesn't matter what order but I'm still skeptical of them accomplishing what they need to.

 

Hope they prove me wrong but it'll be more difficult for them to get one of the big 3 SS, Rodon/Senga, & Contreras/Vazquez it'll be a disappointing offseason.

None of us are going to know just how much money is available, and if committing $80m or so to Bellinger and Jameson takes us out of the running for someone like Correa…we probably weren’t seriously involved anyways and there are bigger problems. What these signings could do is signal our desire and potential ability to compete immediately, which at the very least alleviates some concerns if Correa is picking between something like us and Minnesota (who I wouldn’t think would win out otherwise).

 

Anything under 233mil is a disgrace for this market and their profits (short and long term).

 

If these moves are a substitute for a better player, the Cubs are screwed. They need elite talent not role players. Their moves so far are similar to the biggest moves of last offseason which left them well below average in wins and talent.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

https://theathletic.com/3977499/2022/12/07/cubs-cody-bellinger-defense-moves/?redirected=1

“With Cody and his defense and the talent that he has,” general manager Carter Hawkins said, “he’s the type of guy that could potentially be a good fit for us.”

 

High praise indeed