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2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

CaliforniaRaisin
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Named After Maddux Draft Eligible

Named After Maddux

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If they hadn't added Carter Hawkins as GM I'd hate adding all the pitching too, but given his history I'm kind of excited to see what he can do.

even if you're ready to give him outsized credit in their overall P dev, mostly all their guys, Bieber/Plesac/Clevinger/Civale/Karinchak etc. were mid-late round finds- that should further remove the desperate need to expend such a heavy investment in the position, where you're still making a big reach with a top-10 pick against the universal consensus

 

this is likely to remain a bad offensive ballclub for a long while (like CLE), which i fundamentally hate, and that really puts all our eggs in the Craig Breslow basket to be strongly competitive

 

Bieber/Plesac/Clevinger… etc fit a similar profile coming out of the draft, but Cleveland pivoted pretty hard in the last couple years targeting power pitching early. Both Espino and Williams were first round power pitchers. Obviously it’s hard to know how much specific involvement Carter had there, but to then see them target power pitchers heavily was intriguing. It’s still a risky strategy, but it’s intriguing.

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CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

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If they hadn't added Carter Hawkins as GM I'd hate adding all the pitching too, but given his history I'm kind of excited to see what he can do.

even if you're ready to give him outsized credit in their overall P dev, mostly all their guys, Bieber/Plesac/Clevinger/Civale/Karinchak etc. were mid-late round finds- that should further remove the desperate need to expend such a heavy investment in the position, where you're still making a big reach with a top-10 pick against the universal consensus

 

this is likely to remain a bad offensive ballclub for a long while (like CLE), which i fundamentally hate, and that really puts all our eggs in the Craig Breslow basket to be strongly competitive

 

Bieber/Plesac/Clevinger… etc fit a similar profile coming out of the draft, but Cleveland pivoted pretty hard in the last couple years targeting power pitching early. Both Espino and Williams were first round power pitchers. Obviously it’s hard to know how much specific involvement Carter had there, but to then see them target power pitchers heavily was intriguing. It’s still a risky strategy, but it’s intriguing.

 

Heck, even the year before the Bieber draft, they took Triston McKenzie in the first. Completely different risk profile.

CubinNY MVP

CubinNY

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This is the pick I’m most excited about. Seriously, he could be the steal of the draft if he can stick at his position.

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

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(1/7) 22. Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma (45 FV)

(2/47) 41. Jackson Ferris, LHP, IMG Academy HS (FL) (45 FV)

(3/86) 115. Christopher Paciolla, SS, Temecula Valley HS (CA) (40 FV)

(4/113) 130. Nazier Mule, RHP, Passaic County Tech HS (NJ) (40 FV)

(5/143) 180. Brandon Birdsell, RHP, Texas Tech (35+ FV)

(6/173) 264. Will Frisch, RHP, Oregon State (35+ FV)

(19/563) 296. Brock Blatter, RHP, Billings Central Catholic HS (MT)

(11/323) HM. Branden Noriega, LHP, No School

(13/383) HM. Luis Rujano, RHP, Sunshine State Elite HS (FL)

(14/413) HM. Shane Marshall, RHP, Georgia

 

I thought Horton would go just after the Cubs took him, but his last month of the season when he went from second/third round to the top 10 picks is an outlier that will be referenced for the next decade. Among the college pitchers, he and Prielipp come with the least track record of being this kind of guy so their pro debuts have the potential to move them the most. If what Horton is doing keeps working, I think he'll look like peak Chris Archer: second/third starter whose best pitch is a 65-or-70-grade slider (that he learned a couple of months ago!) and a good-enough mid-90s heater.

Ferris was right there with Dylan Lesko and Brandon Barriera for a year-plus at the top of a historically strong prep pitching class, but the latter two separated a bit this spring. Ferris' stuff was more 50-to-55 grade this spring rather than the multiple plus pitches the others were showing, but I think a delivery tweak will give Ferris starter command and three above-average pitches. Paciolla is a hit-first prep infielder, Mule is a rocket-armed righty (up to 100 mph) who will show a plus breaker at times but has some relief risk, Birdsell is an older college power arm with some medical history but is coming off a strong campaign converting to a starting role, while Frisch has a mid-90s heater but missed the season with Tommy John surgery.

 

On Day 3, the Cubs added Noriega (Draft League standout up to 97 mph with an above breaker), Rujano (sitting mid-90s late in the year with a three-pitch mix), Marshall (longtime catcher recently converted to pitching, works mid-90s) and Blatter (big, but limited reps also into the mid-90s in the Draft League).

CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

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I thought Horton would go just after the Cubs took him, but his last month of the season when he went from second/third round to the top 10 picks is an outlier that will be referenced for the next decade. Among the college pitchers, he and Prielipp come with the least track record of being this kind of guy so their pro debuts have the potential to move them the most. If what Horton is doing keeps working, I think he'll look like peak Chris Archer: second/third starter whose best pitch is a 65-or-70-grade slider (that he learned a couple of months ago!) and a good-enough mid-90s heater.

 

And the Athletic dropped a Lance McCullers comp on Horton, which makes sense since he and Archer are probably the two best FB/SL primary 2-pitch starters in recent years.

 

Savermetrics Prep Ball

Savermetrics

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Slot for their 7th round pick is $237,300 and $249,165 with the 5% overage. That works out to a $212,300 savings on slot and $224,165 savings on the overage.

 

As a heads up, updated slot figures are here. Slot for pick 203 is now $237,500. Jim Callis found out about the increase either right before or during the draft, then posted 'em all on Wednesday.

CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

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Slot for their 7th round pick is $237,300 and $249,165 with the 5% overage. That works out to a $212,300 savings on slot and $224,165 savings on the overage.

 

As a heads up, updated slot figures are here. Slot for pick 203 is now $237,500. Jim Callis found out about the increase either right before or during the draft, then posted 'em all on Wednesday.

 

That’s right! Thanks and thanks for all the great work you do!

craig First Round Pick

craig

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A smidge more than a lot at #13

 

Between the savings for Horton and Hull plus the 5% overage, they have $1,978,045 extra to spread around Ferris, Paciolla and Mulé.

 

I assume they'll clear another ≥$250 on Noland and McCullough.

*So overall >$2.2 in discretionary overslot.

 

I'm kinda guessing ~$0.2 of that will be for 3rd day overslot(s), and that it will be ~$2M on the picks 2-4.

 

Perhaps simple negotiation/discussion round-numbers might have been $3M, $1M, and $1M for Ferris-Paciolla-Mule. If those three got $5.0, $1.0, and $1.0 all on the dot, that would be $2.1 over. Kantro could accomodate that, just barely, if he's saving <$100K for 3rd day, and if McGwire, Frisch, and Birdsell are all either slot or variably under.

 

I'm curious whether McGwire will be slot, or if maybe he'll get a little extra? His slot if $189; I'd not be surprised to see them bump it to $200, 250, or $300.

 

I'm also curious to see how the overslots shake out between Mule and Paciolla. Mule's gotten much more talk and attention. So I'm curious whether he gets biggish overslot and Paciolla isn't much above slot? Or if they like Paciolla more than we realize, and he gets a bigger overslot than we realize? For now I'll just guess $1M each.

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