2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

[toonsterwu]

Despite being fairly pessimistic about the state of organization and the minors, relatively speaking, I actually, and I may regret saying this, like this draft so far. You are taking a guy in Horton with elite upside, who has already had TJ, which might be viewed as a positive, with low mileage. Most importantly, you are putting him into a pro environment, where he will have more attention paid to him than college coaches have time for. That can only be a plus for his baseball development. Do I have concerns? Sure, but at the very least, this says to me that the Cubs are confident in their pitching approach now, and honestly, after a wishy-washy decade of pitching development, it's good to see them make this move. I suspect they know his number (well, no, they obviously know his number) and planned this out in advance, so I imagine it'll be a slight underslot to bring in Ferris, I wouldn't expect huge savings - with another offseason, and 2 years of draft eligibility left, he really could've taken off big time next year and been considered by some in the top 5-10 or so entering the season for next year's draft, so I doubt it'll be massive savings.

 

With Ferris, we're clearly seeing a mold and preference, and the upside seems stronger than Gray last year. Both likely will take some time, but it's a good gamble. To accurately judge the draft, leaving aside the benefit of hindsight, we'll need to know what they do with the rest of their draft. That said, getting top pitching in their was definitely needed, and they took two shots to right that side of the ledger. Now, it was a weak pitching draft, but overall, Ferris was fine in the 2nd, and i think Horton is fine in the first. Slightly high maybe, but sounds like he was going soon, so the Cubs took their shot. That said, since it was a weak pitching draft, there is a fair space to critique passing on other talent, since the system isn't that great to justify focusing on positions vs. talent, so I get the criticism on passing on Lee, but drafts are viewed as much for how the picks stack up after the first 4-5 rounds, so we'll have to wait and see.

 

While it's somewhat irrelevant, I'd be stunned if Horton isn't top 5. Depending on how the 2nd half goes, I think you could make a case for him as high as 3 or 4. As for Ferris, it depends on the 2nd half of the year and how some guys play, but I like him better than Gray, so I'm guessing he'll be in that 8-15 range depending on individual preferences.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB Pipeline had him 19:

 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55

 

Scouts have poured in to watch IMG Academy outfielder Elijah Green on a regular basis all spring, but they also tried to time it for whenever Ferris takes the mound. One of the best prep left-handers in this class, Ferris certainly made a name for himself last spring, when he outdueled eventual Phillies first-round pick Andrew Painter, then threw at a number of summer showcase events -- including MLB’s High School All-American Game in Denver. He came out of the gate red-hot this spring and while he’s shown off his considerable upside, he’s been a touch more inconsistent as the season wore on.

 

When everything is in sync and online, the 6-foot-4 Ferris can show off three pitches that have the chance to all be plus pitches. His fastball typically sits in the 92-95 mph range with good riding life and he has shown the ability to command the pitch well. He throws close to a true 12-to-6 curve in the mid-70s and has excellent feel for his mid-80s changeup with good fade.

 

Tall and projectable, the Mississippi commit could have more in the tank as he matures, and he can already hold his stuff deep into outings. He does have a bit of an unorthodox delivery that can get out of whack occasionally, leading to some command issues, but he has No. 2-3 starter potential if it all comes together.

[toonsterwu]

Yankees crushed their first two picks. Jones has big LH Judge-esque tools, Drew Thorpe is getting Hendricks comps and was a top notch performer…I don’t think they’re going to be so serious the Soto race once they pay Judge

 

The Soto race is fascinating in that .. I'm not sure which team that can spend is going to want to shell out top prospects and extend him at a massive deal. Then, the other factor in any Soto race is this - will be there be smaller market teams that decide to take their shot, and potentially think about moving him in the offseason? The team I'm looking at is Cleveland, who has enough young assets to make a move.

 

Honestly, I still wonder if he stays put this year, and the Natioanls see if they can bridge the gap. It sounds like they had resolved the deferred money issue, and they just didn't want the contract so backloaded (and they wanted to see if the Nats could be competitive sooner than later). It makes sense for the Nationals to want to backload it, with Corbin's contract coming off the books in 2 years, that will free things up. That said, the Nationals should demand an arm and a leg, but if no one forks it over, it isn't the worst idea to see how things look at the next trade deadline. Conceivably, the mess of a rotation could look better, as Cavallli looks to be tightening things up, and Cole Henry could be in the rotation to join Gray and whoever remains. The bats are a big problem for the system, as it's thin, but with Green and the Cuban they signed last year, there's two headline pieces. They'd have to resign Josh Bell, but add another OF bat and a MI, and the outlook could look a lot better next year.

 

If they were a bit closer, the Rangers would make a ton of sense. They made a big push to get into it, they've added two premier arms in Leiter and Rocker, still have some arm depth in the system, and have upper level positional depth. Just too far out of it for it to really make sense, unless they are thinking about buying Soto now and seeing how things look next year.

[mias_tisg]

If I'm the Cardinals, I'm very in on Soto. They have the prospects and money to get it done.

[CubinNY]

So they drafted middle of the rotation pitchers when they could have drafted middle-of-the-order hitters. This will either be an excellent draft for the Cubs or one people will talk about for a long time as a case in point of outsmarting oneself.

[Bertz]

Looking at the best availables, there's a bunch of HSers who will likely require extra money as well as several fun college pitchers. I imagine Ferris will cost most of what the team saved with Horton, but we'll probably know pretty quickly this afternoon.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Looking at the best availables, there's a bunch of HSers who will likely require extra money as well as several fun college pitchers. I imagine Ferris will cost most of what the team saved with Horton, but we'll probably know pretty quickly this afternoon.

 

I think they might still be able to swing a guy around $1 million early today but it’ll require some senior signs too.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Longenhagen at FG:

 

Chicago Cubs

Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths

7 12 45+ Cade Horton SP 20.9 Oklahoma Fastball/Slider Combo

47 43 45 Jackson Ferris SIRP 18.5 IMG Academy (FL) Projection, 3-

 

I don’t know for sure whether the Cubs cut an under-slot deal with Cade Horton, but based on the pre-draft rumors about them looking to cut at pick No. 7, and the Jackson Ferris pick in round two, I’d guess they did. Horton was rumored to be ticketed for close to $4 million before the draft, which would be a $1.7 million cut. Jackson Ferris, I’m told, was looking for “Top 20 money,” which means about $3.5 million, about $2 million above slot at his pick.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-mlb-draft-day-one-recap/

[Bertz]

Looking at the best availables, there's a bunch of HSers who will likely require extra money as well as several fun college pitchers. I imagine Ferris will cost most of what the team saved with Horton, but we'll probably know pretty quickly this afternoon.

 

I think they might still be able to swing a guy around $1 million early today but it’ll require some senior signs too.

 

Yeah, if what you posted from Longenhagen ends up being true, it'd mean that Horton + Ferris was mostly a wash. So that'd leave the $500K overage to play with plus any money they save later.

 

I think my ideal would probably be to take one of the remaining college SPs in the third for ~slot, and then blow up rounds 6-10 to throw some money around in the 4th and 5th.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It got mentioned last night, but the Day 1 picks make it clear that they really trust their pitching development work. With the amount of success they’ve had with top 5 round talents(Thompson, Steele, Wicks, Herz, several relievers), and Kantrovitz’s track record, I find it hard to get too upset with that path, especially with none of the moonshot HS bats available at 7. I also like that they apparently (with media talk caveats assumed) got their top choice with pick 2, since you can never tell what’s gonna happen with 40 picks in between.

 

What I don’t like is the seeming intentional under slot strategy. The optimistic version of this is that their grades on Horton were as good as any of the other options so they get a similar talent at 7 and get better talent later on. But (to use round numbers) if they went for two 45s instead of a 50 and 40, I really don’t like that approach when you’re picking in the top 10. There’s a small part of me that kinda wishes Horton goes for slot or close to it, because I don’t care about them matching media consensus and it would reflect a likely better process.

[Hrubes20]

I wouldn’t be upset if Gavin Turley was picked by the Cubs today.

[CubinNY]

It got mentioned last night, but the Day 1 picks make it clear that they really trust their pitching development work. With the amount of success they’ve had with top 5 round talents(Thompson, Steele, Wicks, Herz, several relievers), and Kantrovitz’s track record, I find it hard to get too upset with that path, especially with none of the moonshot HS bats available at 7. I also like that they apparently (with media talk caveats assumed) got their top choice with pick 2, since you can never tell what’s gonna happen with 40 picks in between.

 

What I don’t like is the seeming intentional under slot strategy. The optimistic version of this is that their grades on Horton were as good as any of the other options so they get a similar talent at 7 and get better talent later on. But (to use round numbers) if they went for two 45s instead of a 50 and 40, I really don’t like that approach when you’re picking in the top 10. There’s a small part if me that kinda wishes Horton goes for slot or close to it, because I don’t care about them matching media consensus and it would reflect a likely better process.

Well put. I give them credit for believing in their ability to develop pitching, but the jury is still out. What concerns me most is the relative value of the guys they passed on when making the picks.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

So Horton and Ferris appear to be the type of pitchers the Guardians pick.

 

 

[Bertz]

Vrieling and especially Hubbart sound extremely Cubs-y, but I think Brandon Sproat stands out most in my eye?

 

Cannon sounds like someone the org would have taken ~5 years ago IMO, not someone they'd take now

[Cubswin11]

I like Cannon. Also from my super advanced scouting of watching 1 college World Series game he played I want to take Jalen Battles from Arkansas at some point, wherever he may slot in.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I like Cannon. Also from my super advanced scouting of watching 1 college World Series game he played I want to take Jalen Battles from Arkansas at some point, wherever he may slot in.

 

You know this already but I love Battles too. He should be a senior sign so that’ll help financially.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cubs pick Christopher Paciolla, prep SS from Temecula in the 3rd, UCLA commit

 

BA: 128

MLB: 166

Prospects Live: 91

[Tim]

Cubs pick Christopher Paciolla, prep SS from Temecula in the 3rd, UCLA commit

 

BA: 128

MLB: 166

I would have much rather had Ben Joyce

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cubs pick Christopher Paciolla, prep SS from Temecula in the 3rd, UCLA commit

 

BA: 128

MLB: 166

I would have much rather had Ben Joyce

 

I’m not very interested in a once-a-week 1-inning relief pitcher until after the 5th round. Certainly not interested after Carraway and even Crochet.

[Tim]

Cubs pick Christopher Paciolla, prep SS from Temecula in the 3rd, UCLA commit

 

BA: 128

MLB: 166

I would have much rather had Ben Joyce

 

I’m not very interested in a once-a-week 1-inning relief pitcher until after the 5th round. Certainly not interested after Carraway and even Crochet.

On the one hand, I trust the cubs pitching development to get more than that out of him. On the other hand, I should trust the cubs dev team to pick which pitchers they see something they can work with.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Joyce going to the Angels is so on brand feels like MLBs writers are getting lazy.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Prospects Live:

 

91

Christopher Paciolla

SS Temecula Valley Temecula, CA

Paciolla is a big, strong infielder with significant bat speed at the plate. There's some moving parts in his setup, load and swing, but when Paciolla is on time he can generate as much juice as anyone on the west coast. Paciolla isn't fleet of foot, but he has fluid motions on the dirt with decent range. As he continues to mature, his profile might be forced to third base, but he certainly looks the part of an impact player at the next level.

 

BA:

 

128 Christopher Paciolla Temecula (Calif.) Valley HS SS

Notes:

HT: 6-2 | Wt: 185 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: UCLA

Age At Draft: 18.3

BA Grade: 45/Extreme

Tools: Hit: 45. Power: 55. Run: 40. Field: 50. Arm: 55.

 

Paciolla was not a well-known name entering the spring, but plenty of scouts ran into Temecula Valley High in California to see the 6-foot-2, 185-pound shortstop. Paciolla is a projection power hitter who has a body you can dream on. He’s tall and lean with plenty of room for more strength gains in the future, and a chance to get to above-average power. While most scouts seem to think he’ll be a power-over-hit bat, the industry is split on his pure hitting ability. Some think he showed a shorter swing throughout the spring and will be able to make adjustments with hands that work well, while others question his swing decisions and contact ability, noting that he pulls out on his front side with some frequency. At the plate, Paciolla stands with a closed off lower half, but will still get caught out in front trying to pull the ball to left. Defensively, Paciolla has soft hands and an average arm now that could become above-average with more strength, but he lacks the footspeed to stick at shortstop despite solid instincts. He’s a below-average runner and takes time to get underway out of the box, but he could profile at third base as he develops physically. Paciolla is committed to UCLA.

 

MLB Pipeline (166):

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 45 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 40

 

There are a number of intriguing high school infielders from California who, while not in the upper tier of the Draft conversations, are getting serious looks for the top four or five rounds. That group includes names like Jacob Reimer, Cutter Coffey and Paciolla, an athletic shortstop from Temecula Valley High School, a program that has produced 10 draftees, but only one big leaguer (Brooks Pounders), with Paciolla having the chance to be the first player selected from the school since 2014.

 

Paciolla has the chance to be a very good hitter from the right side of the plate. He has a knack for making contact and does not swing and miss very often, using a very comfortable and relaxed setup in the box. He’s capable of driving the ball, with quick hands and bat speed pointing to a future ability to have good extra-base pop. While he is athletic, running isn’t really a big part of his game.

 

That lack of speed could mean he doesn’t stay at shortstop long-term, though he has good hands and footwork. Paciolla has a solid arm, can make all the throws and likely would play well should he move to the hot corner, the spot most scouts see him playing at the next level. Should the Draft not go his way, it’s easy to see him getting the chance to stick at short at UCLA in the coming years.

[Hrubes20]

Cubs pick Christopher Paciolla, prep SS from Temecula in the 3rd, UCLA commit

 

BA: 128

MLB: 166

I would have much rather had Ben Joyce

 

I’m not very interested in a once-a-week 1-inning relief pitcher until after the 5th round. Certainly not interested after Carraway and even Crochet.

 

Same. Cubs have dipped into the "best RP in the draft" pool before and it hasn't ended well. Honestly, it rarely ever ends up well for anyone. Let someone else take those guys in the first 4 rounds.

 

I know very little about Paciolla, but the few blurbs I just read make him sound a lot like Triantos.

 

Edit: The BA write-up Raisin posted makes him sound absolutely nothing like Traintos. Apparently scouts really are in disagreement on him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Omg Nazier Mule

 

I love it!!