2022 Trade Deadline

[Tim]

I think the time has come and gone for Hosmer to make sense. He's a barely above replacement level 1B and I don't feel like the prospect capital you get by taking on his 3/40 is more useful to the organization than spending that 3/40 on the roster or in a different way.

I don't know...if we could sign Campusano to a 3/40 contract right now, I'd be awfully happy about that. Then if we could trade Contreras for Wood + Susana, I'd be happy with that, too.

[Bertz]

I think the time has come and gone for Hosmer to make sense. He's a barely above replacement level 1B and I don't feel like the prospect capital you get by taking on his 3/40 is more useful to the organization than spending that 3/40 on the roster or in a different way.

 

Yup. I was all about this idea in March, but at this point I'd rather the team have the money and the roster spot than the extra prospect capital. Myers or some other short term money fine, but let's not stack any dead money on '23/'24/'25.

[sneakypower]

I think the time has come and gone for Hosmer to make sense. He's a barely above replacement level 1B and I don't feel like the prospect capital you get by taking on his 3/40 is more useful to the organization than spending that 3/40 on the roster or in a different way.

we could add Yan Gomes, Daniel Descalso, Wade Miley, Andrelton Simmons for that kind of money!

[Bertz]

As I try to coast into the weekend by avoiding work, I've found an assortment of prospects I like from teams that are good fits with the Cubs at the trade deadline. I listed their FG prospect rankings, though generally I looked at what both FG and MLB.com had to say about them.

 

Most of these guys below are 45 FVs or better by Fangraphs' methodology. For those that aren't familiar, a 40 FV is a typical org Top 30 prospect, a 45 FV is an org Top 10, a 50 is an industry Top 100 guy, and a 55 FV is industry Top 40ish. There are higher grades, but those are mega prospects and we're not getting any of those this deadline, this year only Soto and mayyybe Luis Castillo will net that kind of return. I laid this out earlier in the thread, but I expect Robertson to bring back a 45 and a 40, Contreras to bring back a 50 and a 45, and Happ to bring back approximately what Contreras and Robertson are worth combined.

 

Also used spoiler tags to keep this post from being a slog to scroll through

 

Guardians

 

 

Brayan Rocchio (50 FV) - A jack of all trades switch hitting shortstop performing at AA right now. The ceiling is not massive as he's not incredibly toolsy, but he seems like about as safe a bet for consistently cranking out 3 WAR seasons as you can find. Fangraphs has him as a top 50 prospect, MLB has him in the 80's. He's probably the biggest reach I've listed, but Cleveland is LOADED with infield depth

 

Gavin Williams (45+ FV) - Cleveland's 1st rounder last year, a RH starter with massive stuff, already at AA, though having some walk issues there. FG ranks him as a 45+, meaning a fringe top 100 guy. MLB ranked him 55th overall in their recent top 100.

 

Xzavion Curry (45 FV) - Fun lower ceiling near MLB ready SP. He's got a fastball that's 92-94, but apparently checks every other box in terms of spin, shape, etc. He pounds the zone, but the secondaries are pretty mediocre, so he gives up a lot of flyball contact. I think as far as a comp it's probably something like a RH Eric Lauer

 

 

Twins

 

 

Matt Wallner (45 FV) - A big honkin LH DH with massive power, massive patience, and big swing and miss. Just promoted to AAA after demolishing AA, he's been one of the most productive hitters in the minors this year. The upside here is Joey Gallo but trade some defensive value for a little more contact

 

Spencer Steer (45 FV) - The stats are super exciting, the scouting reports are fairly tepid. But he's a guy who can play all over the infield with power and pretty strong K numbers. Something like an infield version of Mark Canha?

 

Noah Miller (45 FV) - A sandwich pick last year similar to Brayan Rocchio above in terms of tools and style, but a few rungs lower on the minor league ladder

 

Marco Raya (40+ FV) - After the draft young arms in A Ball probably shouldn't be on the docket, but Raya is a fun one. Sits 94 and whooping ass in full season ball as a 19 year old

 

 

Padres

 

 

James Wood (50 FV) - Coming into the year he was your standard "crazy athlete but super raw" type, but he hit the ground running in Low A and has a 1.000+ OPS and almost even K/BB rates. It might already be too late to nab him but this is generally what super-duper stars look like in A Ball. At the moment he's at the back of the Top 100 lists

 

Luis Campusano (55 FV) - A top 50 prospect at catcher who could be called up to MLB tomorrow. The defense is a little light, but he should be a premier offensive catcher and robo-umps are on the way. You want the softest possible transition away from Willson this is it

 

 

Dodgers

 

 

Miguel Vargas (45 FV) - Like Steer with the Twins, Vargas is a guy who looks really exciting on the stat sheet and gets fairly meh scouting reports. Probably ends up more of a suped up Wilmer Flores than the star you might think from looking at his Baseball-Reference page

 

Gavin Stone (45 FV) - Like Vargas probably not as good as the stat sheet says, but unlike Vargas the scouting reports are still pretty positive. He was viewed as a likely reliever, but he's dominating enough, and now doing it at AA, to the point where that sentiment seems to be fading.

 

 

Yankees

 

 

Ken Waldichuk (50 FV) - "What if DJ Herz didn't walk so many damn guys?" Waldichuk is a funky lefty with a fastball that's a tick above average velo-wise but has all the spin/angle/shape you could ask for. He's got a great change, two solid breaking balls, and is damn near major league ready right this second

 

Jason Dominguez (50 FV) - I think the insane hype is over now that Yankees fans have moved onto overhyping Anthony Volpe? Dominguez is still a very good prospect, but seems to be settling in as a more of "a little better pretty much across the board Kevin Alcantara" as opposed to some switch hitting Mike Trout that Yankees fans were trying to will him into

 

 

Mets/Giants/Jays

 

Honestly, I don't like any of these teams' prospects enough for them to be my preferred options on a deal, or at least a bigger deal for one of Contreras/Happ/Robertson. For example Brett Baty is fun, but is he worth burning probably both Contreras and Robertson to acquire? Nope. It's a shame because with their needs and the Cubs' inventory they're strong fits on a trade, especially the Mets. They may have guys who've popped this year and would be worthwhile (e.g. Kilian last year), but looking at the current prospect lists doesn't offer many compelling matches.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I've spent entirely too much time looking at those teams and prospect lists too. Curry in a Robertson deal and Waldichuk in a Happ deal are both things I came back to multiple times. I like Wallner and Steer too. A couple that seem like potential sweet spot acquisitions to me that weren't on the list:

 

LAD - Landon Knack (SP) - A 45 FV SP with excellent velocity but modest secondaries/command. K%-BB% over 20% and HR rates low enough to drive a solid FIP in AA even though he's been hittable. Just outside the FG Dodgers Top 10 and one of a couple pitchers in a similar role/level/pedigree cluster so likely available.

 

 

CLE - Bryan Lavastida/Bo Naylor © - The Indians have a catching need and 2 prospects at AAA who are both promising. Bo is Josh's brother and an athletic if unrefined receiver and was a 50 FV last year before slumping with the bat (this year 40+ FV), but has turned it around in a huge way with a .271/.427/.471 AA line and .308/.459/.554 in 20 AAA games, both with near 1:1 BB/K. Lavastida (45+FV) converted to C after the draft and profiles as a slightly better all around defender, but hasn't translated his AA success(.368 wOBA) to AAA quite yet(.225/.320/.372 but w/ solid BB and K rates). I have no idea how they see their options here and Naylor's bat has blown up so much that it would play as a DH(so they don't *have* to get rid of one), but especially with the Hawkins connection I'd be fascinated to see if they could peel one away.

[Bertz]

I've spent entirely too much time looking at those teams and prospect lists too. Curry in a Robertson deal and Waldichuk in a Happ deal are both things I came back to multiple times. I like Wallner and Steer too. A couple that seem like potential sweet spot acquisitions to me that weren't on the list:

 

LAD - Landon Knack (SP) - A 45 FV SP with excellent velocity but modest secondaries/command. K%-BB% over 20% and HR rates low enough to drive a solid FIP in AA even though he's been hittable. Just outside the FG Dodgers Top 10 and one of a couple pitchers in a similar role/level/pedigree cluster so likely available.

 

 

CLE - Bryan Lavastida/Bo Naylor © - The Indians have a catching need and 2 prospects at AAA who are both promising. Bo is Josh's brother and an athletic if unrefined receiver and was a 50 FV last year before slumping with the bat (this year 40+ FV), but has turned it around in a huge way with a .271/.427/.471 AA line and .308/.459/.554 in 20 AAA games, both with near 1:1 BB/K. Lavastida (45+FV) converted to C after the draft and profiles as a slightly better all around defender, but hasn't translated his AA success(.368 wOBA) to AAA quite yet(.225/.320/.372 but w/ solid BB and K rates). I have no idea how they see their options here and Naylor's bat has blown up so much that it would play as a DH(so they don't *have* to get rid of one), but especially with the Hawkins connection I'd be fascinated to see if they could peel one away.

 

Yeah the Guardians list is so deep, I cut myself off but could have gone 8-10 deep there. I *really* hope they are in on Contreras and/or Robertson. The Dodgers list is too, but with them being probably only in on the relievers you have to limit to 2nd/3rd tier guys (and their system is so good those are still quality guys!).

 

I think my ideal at this point would be Happ for Waldichuk or one of the Padres' guys, Contreras (and probably Martin?) for Rocchio and Curry, and Robertson for one of the Twins' bats.

[Bertz]

[Bertz]

 

This type of verbiage usually is shortly followed by a completed deal. Might literally just be a matter of Benintendi agreeing to get vaxxed.

[Gilby]

Brett has an article up talking about the Padres being interested in both Happ and Contreras. If it's possible to get 2/3 of Hassell, Wood, Campusano (would maybe need to take on Myers?), all of a sudden our chances of getting Soto seem ... possible? realistic?

 

A Cubs top 5 prospect list of PCA, Davis, Alcantara, and 2 of the names above is a solid list for the Nats to choose from. Not many teams are as well positioned financially as the Cubs either

[d_money]

Brett has an article up talking about the Padres being interested in both Happ and Contreras. If it's possible to get 2/3 of Hassell, Wood, Campusano (would maybe need to take on Myers?), all of a sudden our chances of getting Soto seem ... possible? realistic?

 

A Cubs top 5 prospect list of PCA, Davis, Alcantara, and 2 of the names above is a solid list for the Nats to choose from. Not many teams are as well positioned financially as the Cubs either

If Hoyer could pull that off that would be cool. PCA is gonna be really good

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Campusano, Wood/Hassell, and Merrill/Susana for Contreras + Happ would be light on 2023 contributions for deals involving both, but would still be awfully tempting as a framework. Maybe take on Myers contract or send a 40 man crunch guy to SD, take a chance on Morejon, etc.

[Tim]

Given the upcoming 40 man crunch, I'm not against including guys like Wood/Hassell that won't have to be rostered yet.

[Cubswin11]

If we do something with the Padres I wonder if Lamet could be included as a flyer/throw in almost. He’s been hurt and bad and is in AAA now but has had some real nice runs and controlled through next year.

[Bertz]

 

My reaction to Jed somehow acquiring both James Wood and Luis Campusano

[Tim]

For the deadline...

 

Contreras + Ortega => Myers, Campusano, Wood + Susana (San Diego)

Robertson => Gavin Williams

Happ + Givens => Jason Dominguez

 

Davis, Dominguez, Caissie, Wicks, Velazquez => Soto + Corbin

 

---------------------------

 

Give the pitching infrastructure the rest of '22 to get Corbin down the right path. If he looks fixable, keep him. Otherwise, DFA him.

 

Go into the offseason with:

 

CF: Morel

LF: Soto

RF: Suzuki

1B: ???

SS: Hoerner

DH: ???

C: Campusano

3B: Wisdom

2B: Madrigal

 

SP1: ???

SP2: Stroman

SP3: Steele

SP4: Thompson

SP5: Hendricks / Corbin

 

That's not a bad start. There's also a lot of quality depth building up at AAA/AA. I think paying Soto + Corbin would take us out of the market for one of the big SS, but that's okay with me. I'd rather have Soto than any of them. There would be three big holes to fill - 1B, DH + SP1. That's a doable offseason. Get a couple of good bats (ideally at least one lefty) to stick at those two spots and that offense would have the potential to really rock.

 

Add a good SP1 and that staff is fine as-is. Fix Corbin, whose velocity is higher now than when he was good, and now you have a really solid staff.

 

Basically get Soto now and it really accelerates the arrival of "the next great Cubs team".

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm all about getting Soto (and like Corbin) so yes to that, but think getting Dominguez for Happ and Givens is a pipe dream. Not because Dominguez is so overwhelming a prospect to this point but because it's hard to imagine getting to double dip on the Yankees like that

 

I don't think it's a matter of the Yankees feeling duped(Rizzo played well enough to get extended after all), but more that if the Yankees are using Dominguez or any significant prospect capital to get a multi-year OF solution, they're probably going to be more motivated to go after Soto until he is dealt or that door closes very close to the deadline.

[CubinNY]

Are the Nats pushing up the timeline to extend/trade Soto (kind of knowing he’s going to reject extension offers) to get the most value or because they want to make the most money when they sell the team or both?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

One of the things I think is increasingly important as finding a lefty bat for next year. When you look at the existing options who could play a significant role in 2023-2024, it's so RHH heavy. Hoerner, Morel, Suzuki, Wisdom, Davis, Amaya, Frazier, Velazquez, Canario, Slaughter. The other side of the ledger is Happ(maybe gone in a week), Ortega(31 y/o platoon OF w/ sub .700 OPS), and Mervis(zero pedigree, just got to AAA). Position doesn't even matter a ton thanks to existing holes and the positional flexibility of players like Morel and Wisdom. I tried to put together a spectrum of potential deadline additions that might be able to help with that imbalance and fill lineup holes in the immediate future. This ended up being a long list so I spoilered chunks for legibility.

 

50 FV+ options - The Willson/Happ headliner tier

 

 

Brett Baty - 55 FV 3B NYM - Big power, .877 OPS in AA, might have to move to 1B, unlikely to be available even for Willson

 

Tristan Casas - 55 FV 1B BOS - Prototypical 1B prospect hasn't lit up AAA, but even so as a Top 50(and for some top 20) prospect probably not coming back unless they desperately want Happ

 

Michael Busch - 50 FV 1B LAD - well-rounded offensive profile that can maybe fake it at 2B(FG name drops La Stella as a defensive comp). Hasn't hit well in his first exposure to AAA, which might make him a faint possibility in a Robertson deal given his limitations and age

 

Bo Naylor - 50 FV C CLE - As I mentioned in a previous post, has probably played himself out of trade consideration with an insane 2022. But that's not his whole background and Cleveland does have options and might be willing to go for it given their playoff odds and prospect depth.

 

George Valera - 50 FV OF CLE - A back of the Top 100 corner OF(though he has taken some CF reps) with big power, some hit tool risk and a .851 OPS at AA. Could be a target given the internal competition on the MLB roster and high minors(to say nothing of DeLauter just drafted behind him), but probably only if they decide to target WIllson(unlikely imo).

 

 

40+ and 45 FV options - The 1:1 Robertson trade tier

 

 

Matt Wallner - 45 FV OF/DH MIN - Bertz mentioned him previously, an all bat no field masher just promoted to AAA after a .299/.436/.597 AA line. K's are a concern given he adds no defensive value, but a very interesting option if Minnesota wants Robertson.

 

Kameron Misner - 45 FV OF TBR - A tools-first OF on his second org, Misner has an .815 AA OPS and is passable in CF as a bonus. Strikeout/hit tool questions cloud the profile.

 

Jonathan Aranda - 45 FV 1B TBR - Aranda is a lot like Busch in that he's a bat-first prospect at 1B/2B with a well rounded profile, but his appeal is tilted more to consistent production over scouting appeal. Question is if the hit tool will play well enough in MLB to hide the lack of huge power at 1B/DH, but the .328/.401/.541 line in AAA is a nice start, especially for someone potentially gettable for one of the rental pitchers.

 

Austin Wells - 40+ FV C/OF NYY - Almost didn't include him because of how far away he was, but the potential to stick even part-time at C includes him. A .323/.429/.576 line at A+ got him a promotion to AA where he's been bad his first 10 games, he's probably next-gen Ryan Doumit in terms of position.

 

Alec Burleson - 40+ FV OF STL - A .339/.380/.547 line in AAA is noteworthy given the bit of pedigree and corner OF profile even if he hadn't been that good as pro before(partially due to aggressive assignments). But this would be a deal with St. Louis and he does crack their top 10 so an uphill climb to being a possibility for a reliever.

 

 

40 FV and below - possibly gettable for Givens/Martin/Smyly

 

 

Eduoard Julien - 40 FV OF MIN - A 2019 draftee who didn't debut til 2021 and has raked at 3 levels since, he's carrying a .286/.427/.468 AA line and probably should be in AAA now. Has played a few IF spots and LF without being good at any of them.

 

Khalil Lee - 40 FV OF NYM - Lee would be a bet that you can address his swing and miss issues and get more out of his prototypical RF tools. He laid waste to AAA last year(.426 wOBA) but has really struggled this year with a .717 OPS and 35% K rate

 

Richie Palacios - 40 FV OF/DH CLE - Done nothing but hit as a pro, and is carrying a .290/.387/.533 AAA line with solid BB/K. But his lack of defensive value, the crowding among LH OF for Cleveland, and his poor cup of coffee earlier this year could make him a target for maybe even a non-Robertson reliever.

 

James Outman - 40 FV OF LAD - power over hit outfielder that some think can stick in CF to boost the profile, .295/.394/.552 in AA got him promoted but the first 70 AAA PA's are in the low .700s OPS

 

Ryan Noda - 40 FV 1B LAD - A 1B with decent defense there(a rarity for this list), his AAA line is a little less flattering than his prolific offensive history, but he's still carrying a .369 wOBA. Takes plenty of walks but also consistently north of 25% K%

 

Miles Mastrubuoni - 40 FV SS TBR - Passable at a number of positions without being good at them, instead of a lefty masher his .283/.364/.429 AAA line with strong peripherals would make for a good bench role and provide a good platoon contrast to Morel's toolsier but more exploitable skillset.

 

JJ Matijevic - 35+ FV 1B HOU - A big power bat without enough hit tool/defense to make it as a 1B regular, but a 1.013 AAA OPS is hard to ignore. Currently on the MLB roster.

 

Will Benson - OF CLE - A 40 FV 2 years ago that hasn't been graded by Fangraphs since, Benson has big power and a big arm(and may be passable in CF), but has finally combined production and peripheral success for the first time this year. .270/.425/.507 with a near 1:1 K/BB at AAA.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Are the Nats pushing up the timeline to extend/trade Soto (kind of knowing he’s going to reject extension offers) to get the most value or because they want to make the most money when they sell the team or both?

 

It's definitely the former, and might also be the latter, I've seen commentary that part of the reason they'd even consider asking teams to take Corbin is to make the financials more appealing to new ownership. But I don't know that anyone is paying hundreds of millions more for the team because Corbin is owed a bunch for 2 years(especially since without Soto the future payrolls are only Strasburg/Corbon/nobody), so I think it's more a matter of giving certainty to the Soto situation one way or another for the incoming ownership group.

[Tim]

Big day for the deadline. It would be very helpful for Smyly to destroy the Phillies.

[PackLandVA]

Big day for the deadline. It would be very helpful for Smyly to destroy the Phillies.

 

What is the significance of "today"? Or do you just me that Smylie has a chance to showcase?

[Tim]

Big day for the deadline. It would be very helpful for Smyly to destroy the Phillies.

 

What is the significance of "today"? Or do you just me that Smylie has a chance to showcase?

Yep - chance to showcase.

[Bertz]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It is almost certainly not that, but those two(a 50 and a 45, one playing well the other okay, both hitters) would be at the least unsurprising as the return in a Happ trade.

[Gilby]

Well that tweet gets my attention. That would also be too much for half a season of Benintendi.