2021 Offseason Thread

[Bertz]

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't know how many of you have done an auction fantasy draft, but every one I do follows the same pattern. In the early rounds I'm very disciplined, not going over my target even if a player is exactly who I want for a spot. Then about halfway through, I realize that I've overestimated how much the middle/lower class players cost and can have my pick of them and still have money left over. I still end up doing okay but probably not as good as if I were more confident in my convictions at the top of the market and trust my skill/luck at the bottom. Anyway I really hope that Jed would beat me in a fantasy league but I'm wondering if he's making my mistake in real life.

[Old Style]

I had no expectations of any of our favorite players coming back this offseason but seeing the Baez news makes me sad.

[Tryptamine]

Watch them throw like 3/36 at Dylan Bundy after not going after Gray at 4/53.

[Bertz]

Here's another fun consequence if you stay away from multi year FAs this winter, next year's market sucks!

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes

 

Catcher: Tucker Barnhart, Willson Contreras, Omar Narváez, Gary Sánchez, Max Stassi, Christian Vázquez, Mike Zunino

 

First base: José Abreu, Jesús Aguilar, Josh Bell, Yuli Gurriel, Eric Hosmer (opt-out), Trey Mancini, Max Muncy (club option), Miguel Sanó (club option), Carlos Santana

 

Second base: Adam Frazier, Kiké Hernández, Ketel Marte (club option), Whit Merrifield (club option), Jonathan Schoop (opt-out), Jean Segura (club option), Kolten Wong (club option)

 

Third base: Wilmer Flores, Evan Longoria (club option), José Ramírez (club option), Justin Turner (club option)

 

Shortstop: Tim Anderson (club option), Elvis Andrus (club option), Xander Bogaerts (opt-out), Didi Gregorius, Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner

 

Outfield: Andrew Benintendi, Charlie Blackmon (player option), Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Brantley, Byron Buxton, Lorenzo Cain, Adam Duvall, Joey Gallo, Robbie Grossman, Mitch Haniger, Aaron Judge, Kevin Kiermaier (club option), Manuel Margot, Wil Myers (club option), Tyler Naquin, Brandon Nimmo, David Peralta, A.J. Pollock (club option), Justin Upton

 

Designated hitter: J.D. Martinez

 

Starting pitchers: Chris Bassitt, Matthew Boyd, Carlos Carrasco (club option), Mike Clevinger, Jacob deGrom (opt-out), Zach Eflin, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Flexen (club option), Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray (club option), Andrew Heaney, Dallas Keuchel (club option), Sean Manaea, Wade Miley, Mike Minor (club option), Charlie Morton (club option), Joe Musgrove, Aaron Nola (club option), Jake Odorizzi (player option), David Price, Chris Sale (opt-out), Luis Severino (club option), Ross Stripling, Noah Syndergaard, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker (player option)

 

Relievers: Daniel Bard, Richard Bleier, Zack Britton, Miguel Castro, Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Díaz, Tyler Duffey, Michael Fulmer, Ken Giles (club option), Chad Green, Luke Jackson, Tommy Kahnle, Craig Kimbrel, José Leclerc (club option), Seth Lugo, Evan Marshall, Trevor May, T.J. McFarland, Jake McGee (club option), Ryan Pressly, Taylor Rogers, Will Smith (club option), Blake Treinen (club option), Matt Wisler

 

There's no way in hell Turner and Judge don't get extended after how quiet the Yankees and Dodgers were this past weekend. If DeGrom opts out do we really think Cohen won't move heaven and earth to retain him? Nearly everyone else fun is tied to a team option, meaning they only make it to FA if they suck this year. We're likely left with Bogaerts, re-signing Willson, and a solid crop of mid rotation starters.

[Tryptamine]

Here's another fun consequence if you stay away from multi year FAs this winter, next year's market sucks!

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes

 

Catcher: Tucker Barnhart, Willson Contreras, Omar Narváez, Gary Sánchez, Max Stassi, Christian Vázquez, Mike Zunino

 

First base: José Abreu, Jesús Aguilar, Josh Bell, Yuli Gurriel, Eric Hosmer (opt-out), Trey Mancini, Max Muncy (club option), Miguel Sanó (club option), Carlos Santana

 

Second base: Adam Frazier, Kiké Hernández, Ketel Marte (club option), Whit Merrifield (club option), Jonathan Schoop (opt-out), Jean Segura (club option), Kolten Wong (club option)

 

Third base: Wilmer Flores, Evan Longoria (club option), José Ramírez (club option), Justin Turner (club option)

 

Shortstop: Tim Anderson (club option), Elvis Andrus (club option), Xander Bogaerts (opt-out), Didi Gregorius, Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner

 

Outfield: Andrew Benintendi, Charlie Blackmon (player option), Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Brantley, Byron Buxton, Lorenzo Cain, Adam Duvall, Joey Gallo, Robbie Grossman, Mitch Haniger, Aaron Judge, Kevin Kiermaier (club option), Manuel Margot, Wil Myers (club option), Tyler Naquin, Brandon Nimmo, David Peralta, A.J. Pollock (club option), Justin Upton

 

Designated hitter: J.D. Martinez

 

Starting pitchers: Chris Bassitt, Matthew Boyd, Carlos Carrasco (club option), Mike Clevinger, Jacob deGrom (opt-out), Zach Eflin, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Flexen (club option), Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray (club option), Andrew Heaney, Dallas Keuchel (club option), Sean Manaea, Wade Miley, Mike Minor (club option), Charlie Morton (club option), Joe Musgrove, Aaron Nola (club option), Jake Odorizzi (player option), David Price, Chris Sale (opt-out), Luis Severino (club option), Ross Stripling, Noah Syndergaard, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker (player option)

 

Relievers: Daniel Bard, Richard Bleier, Zack Britton, Miguel Castro, Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Díaz, Tyler Duffey, Michael Fulmer, Ken Giles (club option), Chad Green, Luke Jackson, Tommy Kahnle, Craig Kimbrel, José Leclerc (club option), Seth Lugo, Evan Marshall, Trevor May, T.J. McFarland, Jake McGee (club option), Ryan Pressly, Taylor Rogers, Will Smith (club option), Blake Treinen (club option), Matt Wisler

 

There's no way in hell Turner and Judge don't get extended after how quiet the Yankees and Dodgers were this past weekend. If DeGrom opts out do we really think Cohen won't move heaven and earth to retain him? Nearly everyone else fun is tied to a team option, meaning they only make it to FA if they suck this year. We're likely left with Bogaerts, re-signing Willson, and a solid crop of mid rotation starters.

 

Which is why, I'm leaning towards that they don't have any plans to be competitive in 2023 either.

[CubinNY]

Here's another fun consequence if you stay away from multi year FAs this winter, next year's market sucks!

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes

 

Catcher: Tucker Barnhart, Willson Contreras, Omar Narváez, Gary Sánchez, Max Stassi, Christian Vázquez, Mike Zunino

 

First base: José Abreu, Jesús Aguilar, Josh Bell, Yuli Gurriel, Eric Hosmer (opt-out), Trey Mancini, Max Muncy (club option), Miguel Sanó (club option), Carlos Santana

 

Second base: Adam Frazier, Kiké Hernández, Ketel Marte (club option), Whit Merrifield (club option), Jonathan Schoop (opt-out), Jean Segura (club option), Kolten Wong (club option)

 

Third base: Wilmer Flores, Evan Longoria (club option), José Ramírez (club option), Justin Turner (club option)

 

Shortstop: Tim Anderson (club option), Elvis Andrus (club option), Xander Bogaerts (opt-out), Didi Gregorius, Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner

 

Outfield: Andrew Benintendi, Charlie Blackmon (player option), Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Brantley, Byron Buxton, Lorenzo Cain, Adam Duvall, Joey Gallo, Robbie Grossman, Mitch Haniger, Aaron Judge, Kevin Kiermaier (club option), Manuel Margot, Wil Myers (club option), Tyler Naquin, Brandon Nimmo, David Peralta, A.J. Pollock (club option), Justin Upton

 

Designated hitter: J.D. Martinez

 

Starting pitchers: Chris Bassitt, Matthew Boyd, Carlos Carrasco (club option), Mike Clevinger, Jacob deGrom (opt-out), Zach Eflin, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Flexen (club option), Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray (club option), Andrew Heaney, Dallas Keuchel (club option), Sean Manaea, Wade Miley, Mike Minor (club option), Charlie Morton (club option), Joe Musgrove, Aaron Nola (club option), Jake Odorizzi (player option), David Price, Chris Sale (opt-out), Luis Severino (club option), Ross Stripling, Noah Syndergaard, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker (player option)

 

Relievers: Daniel Bard, Richard Bleier, Zack Britton, Miguel Castro, Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Díaz, Tyler Duffey, Michael Fulmer, Ken Giles (club option), Chad Green, Luke Jackson, Tommy Kahnle, Craig Kimbrel, José Leclerc (club option), Seth Lugo, Evan Marshall, Trevor May, T.J. McFarland, Jake McGee (club option), Ryan Pressly, Taylor Rogers, Will Smith (club option), Blake Treinen (club option), Matt Wisler

 

There's no way in hell Turner and Judge don't get extended after how quiet the Yankees and Dodgers were this past weekend. If DeGrom opts out do we really think Cohen won't move heaven and earth to retain him? Nearly everyone else fun is tied to a team option, meaning they only make it to FA if they suck this year. We're likely left with Bogaerts, re-signing Willson, and a solid crop of mid rotation starters.

 

Which is why, I'm leaning towards that they don't have any plans to be competitive in 2023 either.

The plan is to maximize income uber alles.

 

My highly uninformed opinion is that the Ricketts Kids are way overextended in the side real estate business ventures designed to suck money away from Cub fans and it's impinging on their ability to field a competitive baseball team.

 

Edit: not to mention their network revenues not meeting expectations.

Edited November 30, 2021 by CubinNY

[cbbryan]

I had no expectations of any of our favorite players coming back this offseason but seeing the Baez news makes me sad.

 

 

I second that emotion. It's been a very discouraging offseason thus far.

[Backtobanks]

Here's another fun consequence if you stay away from multi year FAs this winter, next year's market sucks!

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes

 

Catcher: Tucker Barnhart, Willson Contreras, Omar Narváez, Gary Sánchez, Max Stassi, Christian Vázquez, Mike Zunino

 

First base: José Abreu, Jesús Aguilar, Josh Bell, Yuli Gurriel, Eric Hosmer (opt-out), Trey Mancini, Max Muncy (club option), Miguel Sanó (club option), Carlos Santana

 

Second base: Adam Frazier, Kiké Hernández, Ketel Marte (club option), Whit Merrifield (club option), Jonathan Schoop (opt-out), Jean Segura (club option), Kolten Wong (club option)

 

Third base: Wilmer Flores, Evan Longoria (club option), José Ramírez (club option), Justin Turner (club option)

 

Shortstop: Tim Anderson (club option), Elvis Andrus (club option), Xander Bogaerts (opt-out), Didi Gregorius, Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner

 

Outfield: Andrew Benintendi, Charlie Blackmon (player option), Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Brantley, Byron Buxton, Lorenzo Cain, Adam Duvall, Joey Gallo, Robbie Grossman, Mitch Haniger, Aaron Judge, Kevin Kiermaier (club option), Manuel Margot, Wil Myers (club option), Tyler Naquin, Brandon Nimmo, David Peralta, A.J. Pollock (club option), Justin Upton

 

Designated hitter: J.D. Martinez

 

Starting pitchers: Chris Bassitt, Matthew Boyd, Carlos Carrasco (club option), Mike Clevinger, Jacob deGrom (opt-out), Zach Eflin, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Flexen (club option), Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray (club option), Andrew Heaney, Dallas Keuchel (club option), Sean Manaea, Wade Miley, Mike Minor (club option), Charlie Morton (club option), Joe Musgrove, Aaron Nola (club option), Jake Odorizzi (player option), David Price, Chris Sale (opt-out), Luis Severino (club option), Ross Stripling, Noah Syndergaard, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker (player option)

 

Relievers: Daniel Bard, Richard Bleier, Zack Britton, Miguel Castro, Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Díaz, Tyler Duffey, Michael Fulmer, Ken Giles (club option), Chad Green, Luke Jackson, Tommy Kahnle, Craig Kimbrel, José Leclerc (club option), Seth Lugo, Evan Marshall, Trevor May, T.J. McFarland, Jake McGee (club option), Ryan Pressly, Taylor Rogers, Will Smith (club option), Blake Treinen (club option), Matt Wisler

 

There's no way in hell Turner and Judge don't get extended after how quiet the Yankees and Dodgers were this past weekend. If DeGrom opts out do we really think Cohen won't move heaven and earth to retain him? Nearly everyone else fun is tied to a team option, meaning they only make it to FA if they suck this year. We're likely left with Bogaerts, re-signing Willson, and a solid crop of mid rotation starters.

 

Which is why, I'm leaning towards that they don't have any plans to be competitive in 2023 either.

 

We don't need FAs, we have a bunch of 17-18 year-olds coming down the pike in 3-4 years. Just be patient.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Rosenthal runs down what the SS market looks like for Correa and Story: https://theathletic.com/2988344/2021/11/30/rosenthal-what-does-carlos-correas-market-look-like-after-the-corey-seager-and-javier-baez-deals/

 

The tenor of the article is to go through the list of suitors, but also spell out reasons why they wouldn't go after one of Correa/Story:

 

Yankees: have indicated they won't spend big, the team hates Correa for cheating

Dodgers: have Turner and Lux and bigger holes to fill

Red Sox: Bogaerts is still technically signed long term and moving his position before an opt out would antagonize

Cardinals: DeJong and Sosa are capable, don't normally play in these waters

Mariners: Have Crawford, probably out on Correa but might still pursue Story

Blue Jays: Have already spent a ton and have Bichette

Angels: Have a need but probably need to spread $ to other/multiple needs

Twins: Have a need but don't normally play in these waters

Phillies: Have a need(though Gregorius is under contract), unsure if they'll do another megadeal with Harper and Realmuto signed longterm

 

And then he name checks the Cubs and Nats at the end as teams that might make Correa/Story a tentpole of their rebuild. A lot of what-ifs and it only takes 1 team bucking the odds for the options to get slim with only 2 left, but I think the takeaway is that the teams with clear need and motivation have taken their shot, so there's opportunity for someone to be decisive without an absurd bidding war.

[Bertz]

Which is why, I'm leaning towards that they don't have any plans to be competitive in 2023 either.

 

I don't think that really lines up either. Like if Jed was going to punt the next two years, he doesn't take Nick Madrigal back as the big catch of the deadline. I also don't think you declare Hoerner not an every day shortstop so early, and honestly you probably only add one more SP and call it a day (with the idea that you're going to rely on Adbert/Mills/Thompson/Steele to fill 2+ spots).

 

The Cubs are going to spend money, and the team's going to project at .500ish or better. I'm just worried now that our offseason is going to be something like:

 

Freddy Galvis

Yusei Kikuchi

Garret Richards

Kyle Seager

Andrew McCutchen

Robinson Chirinos

A reliever or two

 

These are all quality depth pieces. At positions of need too. But unless you hit the absolute jackpot on one or more of them, they don't move the ball forward for 2023+ at all. So what ends up happening is one year from now Jed's looking at basically the same team (Willson is gone but Davis has arrived), and there's still a ton of work to do. Honestly just replacing Galvis above with Story would calm change my attitude immensely.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Which is why, I'm leaning towards that they don't have any plans to be competitive in 2023 either.

 

I don't think that really lines up either. Like if Jed was going to punt the next two years, he doesn't take Nick Madrigal back as the big catch of the deadline. I also don't think you declare Hoerner not an every day shortstop so early, and honestly you probably only add one more SP and call it a day (with the idea that you're going to rely on Adbert/Mills/Thompson/Steele to fill 2+ spots).

 

The Cubs are going to spend money, and the team's going to project at .500ish or better. I'm just worried now that our offseason is going to be something like:

 

Freddy Galvis

Yusei Kikuchi

Garret Richards

Kyle Seager

Andrew McCutchen

Robinson Chirinos

A reliever or two

 

These are all quality depth pieces. At positions of need too. But unless you hit the absolute jackpot on one or more of them, they don't move the ball forward for 2023+ at all. So what ends up happening is one year from now Jed's looking at basically the same team (Willson is gone but Davis has arrived), and there's still a ton of work to do. Honestly just replacing Galvis above with Story would calm change my attitude immensely.

 

There's also the trade market too, which is a huge unknown in every direction. That list also starts to look better if you replace Richards with Montas, or McCutchen with Ketel Marte or Suzuki(not a trade but still)

[Southpaw19]

Yan Gomes, 2/$13M - third year option worth $6M and $1M in performance bonuses based on games started.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Looks like Ramirez did come at the expense of Hermosillo

 

[David]

Just gonna leave this here. Cerami keeps saying stuff without saying stuff. I wouldn't post it if it weren't for Ken Rosenthal mentioning the Cubs and Correa in the same sentence.

 

 

 

 

On the other coast, the Yankees were also said to be in on Seager, whose left-handed bat up the middle fits their stated offseason goals, but now that he’s gone, will they really pivot to Carlos Correa? In addition to the fact that he’s right-handed, Rosenthal thinks the answer is no: “The Yankees want a new shortstop, but a number of their players view Correa with contempt because he was part of the Astros’ illegal sign stealing in 2017 and ‘18, and New York does not seem to be playing at the top of the shortstop market, anyway.”

 

Running down the rest of the usual suspects, Rosenthal explains why Correa does *not* make sense for …

 

(1) The Mariners, who have other big free agent interests this offseason (Kris Bryant) and have already committed to J.P. Crawford at short (plus, they added Adam Frazier to the infield mix last week).

 

(2) The Red Sox, who still have Xander Bogaerts and an apparent reluctance to commit that much to one free agent.

 

(3) The Cardinals, who aren’t likely to add ANOTHER high-priced infielder alongside Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, and are more focused on pitching this offseason

 

(4) The Phillies, who already have Didi Gregorius at short and two pricey position players in Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto, and are also more focused on pitching.

 

(5) The Blue Jays, who have already committed to $251M this offseason and would have to move Bo Bichette off short to accommodate Correa.

 

(6) The Angels, who are still focused on pitching.

 

(7) And the Twins, who aren’t likely to spend as much as it would take.

 

Make no mistake: Some team will sign Correa, and for major dollars. Maybe the Nationals or Cubs would want him to be the centerpiece of their rebuilding program. Maybe some other team that currently does not appear to be a fit will trade their shortstop to create a spot. But the Tigers were the most obvious fit. And now the Tigers’ opening is gone.

[UMFan83]

Would be funny if after all the bitching the Cubs were quietly laser-focused on Correa and Stroman and ended up getting them both. I am not getting my hopes up though.

 

Then again...

 

[David]

 

I mean, the obvious point here is that of course he is if a team gives him enough money. But why is Jesse talking about this in the first place is obv the far more interesting question.

 

 

edit - damn you, um. got me again. tbf, i had my post typed up and got distracted by actual work and didn't hit submit.

[Tryptamine]

Would be funny if after all the bitching the Cubs were quietly laser-focused on Correa and Stroman and ended up getting them both. I am not getting my hopes up though.

 

Then again...

 

 

Nope I refuse to have hope.

[Bertz]

Let's say, just for argument, the team adds Correa and Stroman, and then limits themselves to 1 year depth signings. Let's say Danny Duffy, Brad Miller, and Tommy Pham, because those are the 1 year guys I like most.

 

2022 Payroll is ~$185M

Team projects to ~85 wins

 

Lineup:

 

RF - Pham

LF - Happ

SS - Correa

1B - Schwindel

DH - Miller

C - Contreras

2B - Madrigal

3B - Wisdom

CF - Ortega

 

BN - Hoerner, Gomes, Ramirez, Heyward

 

SP:

 

Stroman

Hendricks

Duffy

Miley

Alzolay/Steele

 

Next winter, payroll is ~$160M at the outset of the offseason, and all you've lost to FA are Miley, Contreras, Pham, Miller, and Duffy. Meanwhile, barring major injury Davis and Kilian have made their MLB debuts.

 

This isn't 2019, adding a big deal or even two no longer paints Jed into a corner. Take a big swing dude.

[UMFan83]

I have no idea who this dude is to take with a giant grain of salt

 

[Tryptamine]

I have no idea who this dude is to take with a giant grain of salt

 

 

If Bryant is available on a Javy deal then sure, but I simply have no interest in throwing 200M at Bryant. He's only going to miss more and more time going forward.

[UMFan83]

horsefeathers it I'm just going to throw another random rumor out there. If you want me to create a more sketchy rumor thread I will. Huge grain of salt but at least this dude and the KB rumor guy both have more than 4k followers on twitter

 

[David]

Let's say, just for argument, the team adds Correa and Stroman, and then limits themselves to 1 year depth signings. Let's say Danny Duffy, Brad Miller, and Tommy Pham, because those are the 1 year guys I like most.

 

2022 Payroll is ~$185M

Team projects to ~85 wins

 

Lineup:

 

RF - Pham

LF - Happ

SS - Correa

1B - Schwindel

DH - Miller

C - Contreras

2B - Madrigal

3B - Wisdom

CF - Ortega

 

BN - Hoerner, Gomes, Ramirez, Heyward

 

SP:

 

Stroman

Hendricks

Duffy

Miley

Alzolay/Steele

 

Next winter, payroll is ~$160M at the outset of the offseason, and all you've lost to FA are Miley, Contreras, Pham, Miller, and Duffy. Meanwhile, barring major injury Davis and Kilian have made their MLB debuts.

 

This isn't 2019, adding a big deal or even two no longer paints Jed into a corner. Take a big swing dude.

 

ok now add kb to this (that one is real) but leave willson in (that one's fake)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm all for sketchy rumors, gimme purple shirt dude at Starbucks or whatshisname from PSD making stuff up, don't care.

 

Contreras to Cleveland really makes me wonder the context for the Guardians pursuing him. Are they confident there's going to be a salary floor and they'd rather meet it by trying to compete without a long term commitment? Are they ramping up spending temporarily since their TV deal is about to expire and they need to put best foot forward to get a good deal? Is it the Cubs targeting a SP and Contreras is one of multiple valuable pieces going that way?

[fromthestretch]

horsefeathers it I'm just going to throw another random rumor out there. If you want me to create a more sketchy rumor thread I will. Huge grain of salt but at least this dude and the KB rumor guy both have more than 4k followers on twitter

 

 

Is the fact that he capitalized "Guardian" some sort of not so subtle indication that Cleveland is involved? Or was it just random capitalization?

 

Maybe I just need to day drink more.

 

Edit: I see TT thinks he's pointing out Cleveland, too. Now I don't feel so bad.