2021 AFL

[Tim]

I have a feeling I won't be on an island much longer with having Velazquez in my top 10

His AFL line so far is .395/.489/.658/1.147

 

That's not shabby

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Is there a recent report on Velazquez's defense? Longenhagen said in the July list that he'll 'have to develop' on defense, putting a 30/45 grade on him to go with the 'will fill out his body' grade of 50/40 on speed. But he's playing enough CF at all levels that I have a hard time squaring that with the report, unless the Cubs and the AFL manager are dopes he's clearly not a DH *today*. Especially for a guy who's more of a swinger, that defense is gonna make a big difference in what a MLB role could be and how likely that is.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Another Ding Dong Johnson for Velázquez:

 

 

 

Jensen had a great outing (4 scoreless with 5 strikeouts).

[Bertz]

Kilian piggybacking with Jensen, and doing quite well!

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

10/27: Mesa won 12-0

 

RF N. Velázquez 2/3, R, RBI, 2 BB, HR (3)

SS A. Weber 1/3, 2 R, RBI, 2 BB

SP R. Jensen 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K, 2-2 GO-FO, 46-33 pitches-strikes

RP C. Kilian 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K, 3-0 GO-FO, 45-33 pitches-strikes

 

Andy Weber has an .866 OPS with more walks than strikeouts (23.2% BB%, 16.3 K%) while playing a bit of short.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

The Fresno State product relied mostly on his two-seam fastball, which sat at 94-96 mph and touched 98, while mixing in some 88- to 90-mph sliders and 81- to 83-mph curveballs.

[muntjack]

Still unabashedly high on Kilian. Hope to see him in the rotation at some point next summer.

[Bertz]

Still unabashedly high on Kilian. Hope to see him in the rotation at some point next summer.

 

Yeah, I know no one's blown away by his secondaries, but it feels like pinpoint command of an above average fastball is a recipe for at least a mid rotation starter? Like who's the worst guy in the league who fits that mold, modern day Michael Wacha?

[Bertz]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bertz]

[Tim]

Okay, okay, top 10 it is.

[CubinNY]

This was a write up on him in early 2020.

 

21. Nelson Velazquez, OF

 

 

Nelson Velazquez by Rikk Carlson

Opening Day Age: 21

2019 Highest Level: A South Bend

2019 stats: (Rookie, A) 78 G, 306 PA, .288/.341/.441/.782, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 5 SB, 29.2 K%, 7.5 BB%

 

Still a prospect with a lot of raw, untapped potential, Velazquez my benefit from his winter playing in Puerto Rico and a new batting infrastructure in the Cubs‘ coaching. Velazquez is almost elite defensively, with the range for center and the arm for right. ETA 2022

 

Seems to have tapped into something. I love he was already an above-average defensive player. The 2022 ETA might be right on the money.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Velázquez did it again (he also has 2 outfield assists today):

 

[Bertz]

 

Having him at #7 a month ago is starting to look dumb but not for the reason I worried about

[Hrubes20]

I'm only able to watch the Gameday, but his PAs just seem to be solid. He hasn't swung at one pitch outside the zone (I admittedly have no idea how accurate the zone is on AZL Gameday). He hit a bomb the first time up. Worked a full count and flew out in his second PA. He then walked on 5 pitches in his 3rd PA.

 

Fun stuff.

[d_money]

I'm only able to watch the Gameday, but his PAs just seem to be solid. He hasn't swung at one pitch outside the zone (I admittedly have no idea how accurate the zone is on AZL Gameday). He hit a bomb the first time up. Worked a full count and flew out in his second PA. He then walked on 5 pitches in his 3rd PA.

 

Fun stuff.

What’s his realistic ETA to the bigs?

[Bertz]

 

Pretty sure this game is televised so this is a big deal even beyond just general recognition

[Bertz]

I'm only able to watch the Gameday, but his PAs just seem to be solid. He hasn't swung at one pitch outside the zone (I admittedly have no idea how accurate the zone is on AZL Gameday). He hit a bomb the first time up. Worked a full count and flew out in his second PA. He then walked on 5 pitches in his 3rd PA.

 

Fun stuff.

What’s his realistic ETA to the bigs?

 

Not Hrubes, but I'd think late next year? I think among guys that will open the year in the high minors, this is roughly the expected timeline

 

Early 2022

Brennen Davis

Several Relievers

 

Mid 2022

Caleb Kilian

 

Late 2022

Nelly Velazquez

Chris Morel

Chase Strumpf

Anderson Espinoza

Brailyn Marquez (if he's a reliever)

 

Early 2023

Jordan Wicks

Ryan Jensen

Miguel Amaya

 

Beyond that it gets messy, because of all the pitchers that are coming back from injury that we don't know how much they've advanced in the last 24 months.

[craig]

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2021/11/7/nelson-velazquez-afl

 

Alot of the focus is on Velazquez’s extreme pull tendencies and fringey hit tool, but it’s largely positive and reasonable I think

 

Thanks for that review. My previous uninformed impression had been that he's viewed as "meh" defensively, arm included. This review reference having a lot of assists, and having a reasonable arm, which I hadn't appreciated before. The possibility to be a respectable corner outfielder is interesting. (Although whether this review is accurate on things defense, who knows...).

 

I hadn't been aware of the extreme pull-orientation. We know, of course, that big-league pitchers are good at attacking guys with trends in any direction. I do admit I'm not sure some pull-orientation is bad, though. Guys with strength and bat speed, pulling the ball over the LF fence is a very nice approach, perhaps. (Heh heh, to some degree I wonder whether the Cubs haven't done some of their hitters some disservice by trying to coach them to go opposite a lot, and to let the ball get deep into the zone instead of getting in front of it and pulling it hard early. Addison Russell had his own issues both personal and hitting-wise, but I thought he was one of those guys who was a pull hitter with good pull power, and when they spend so much time trying to make him oppo, he didn't actually have the power to hit HR's oppo, and he ended up losing the HR power which was the one batting quality he was good at.)

 

So maybe having a guy who's a comfortable good pull-hitter is a good thing, not bad?

[Bertz]

So maybe having a guy who's a comfortable good pull-hitter is a good thing, not bad?

 

I tend to think being an extreme pull guy is more feature than bug. This year 7 qualified guys pulled the ball more than 50% of the time

 

Jose Ramirez

Jose Altuve

Jorge Polanco

Jorge Soler

Marcus Semien

Jonathan India

Andrew Mccutchen

 

That's five very good hitters and two average ones. In fact, looking at the Top 30 in pull rate this past year, the only bad hitters I see are Eugenio Suarez and Carlos Santana?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=14,d

 

What's even more fun is that Nelly pairs it with a very low groundball rate. That's another one that if you look at a leaderboard it's surprisingly strong.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=6,a

 

It's not without its drawbacks though. While looking at leaderboards from the past few years I saw a lot of Eugenio Suarez and Rougned Odor. Those two guys frankly appear to have broken themselves trying to pull the ball in the air more. But generally it's a pretty strong recipe for success, especially for a guy with plus power.

[Bertz]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

[sneakypower]

good gracious, bat is bodacious