Salvageable pieces for 2022

[Schwarber Fan]

Feel free to merge this with another thread if necessary.

 

Of this current roster, who do we feel like deserves at least a look on the 2022 squad? Here are my thoughts:

 

Contreras - obvious

Hoerner - obvious but will he be too redundant with Madrigal up the middle?

Happ - has really saved his season with his recent surge

Schwindel - just keeps hitting

Wisdom - brutal strikeout rate but has clearly earned a shot

Ortega - solid candidate for the bench

Chirinos - perfect backup catcher

Duffy - good bench option

Alcantara - interesting if he can improve his bat

Heuer - one of the few salvageable bullpen pieces

Wick - see Heuer (despite today’s meltdown)

Hendricks - home run issue is concerning but still probably worth keeping

Mills - quietly carving out a nice role in the rotation

Alzolay - seems to be finding success in the pen

Steele - seems to have been better in the pen

 

I’m more or less indifferent on everyone else.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I don't know about Wisdom anymore. Clearly he has power, but I don't think he can be relied on as a Major League starter with his 40% + strikeout rate. And his bat just doesn't play off the bench. His strikeout rate is too high for him to be of much value as a pinch-hitter in any key situation. I certainly don't think the team can carry both Bote and Wisdom on the bench, as they have fairly redundant skillsets, and Bote provides a little more versatility. Wisdom has been a good story, but he might end up back in AAA next year as injury insurance (and Bote will most likely get injured again).

 

I don't see Alfonso Rivas on your list. What are people's thoughts about him? With him being able to play the corner outfield spots, is it crazy to think he might be able to make the roster next year as a reserve outfielder and a backup (occasional platoon partner) to Schwindel at 1B?

[Bertz]

I think this is more or less how I see it

 

- Contreras, Happ, Hoerner, and Madrigal can start every day. Happ ideally no longer in CF, and Hoerner ideally as a SS/2B/CF supersub, but broadly that's four guys I'm happy with

 

- Schwindel and Wisdom are fringe starters. Depending on how the chips fall this offseason I'm okay focusing resources elsewhere, but they're not guys you write in the lineup card in pen. And if they are starters, a high end backup needs to be brought in as insurance (e.g. Brad Miller)

 

- I do tend to think Brennen Davis will be up the bulk of next year. So if they want to do some sort of Ortega platoon in CF to hold the spot warm for Brennen, I'm fine with that, but that does leave one OF spot that needs a starter brought in

 

- Among the bench guys, Chirinos would be a solid backup C, but Duffy, Alcantara, and anyone else lacking minor league options can go. Setting aside catchers, I want my bench guys to be REALLY good at something, or have options so you can cycle them in and out

 

- I think there's plenty to work with in the pen. I'd like a salty veteran to fill the role Jeffress had last year, and they probably need a lefty if Steele's in the rotation (more on him in a minute), but that's about it

 

- Alec Mills now has a career 4.07 ERA as a starter in nearly 180 innings. I'm happy to hand him a spot. Hendricks has been a mess recently, but he's clearly going into next year as a starter

 

- I wouldn't promise Alzolay a rotation spot next year, but would definitely give him the inside track on one. His dong problem is *probably* a fluke. Steele's had some flashes in the rotation, but has just not shown nearly enough. I'd let him go into next ST and try to wrestle that rotation spot from Adbert, but assume he'll be in the pen

 

So that makes the offseason shopping list 2 SPs, a SS, a corner OF, a corner IF, a veteran reliever, and a backup C. Easy peasy :-"

[d_money]

I think this is more or less how I see it

 

- Contreras, Happ, Hoerner, and Madrigal can start every day. Happ ideally no longer in CF, and Hoerner ideally as a SS/2B/CF supersub, but broadly that's four guys I'm happy with

 

- Schwindel and Wisdom are fringe starters. Depending on how the chips fall this offseason I'm okay focusing resources elsewhere, but they're not guys you write in the lineup card in pen. And if they are starters, a high end backup needs to be brought in as insurance (e.g. Brad Miller)

 

- I do tend to think Brennen Davis will be up the bulk of next year. So if they want to do some sort of Ortega platoon in CF to hold the spot warm for Brennen, I'm fine with that, but that does leave one OF spot that needs a starter brought in

 

- Among the bench guys, Chirinos would be a solid backup C, but Duffy, Alcantara, and anyone else lacking minor league options can go. Setting aside catchers, I want my bench guys to be REALLY good at something, or have options so you can cycle them in and out

 

- I think there's plenty to work with in the pen. I'd like a salty veteran to fill the role Jeffress had last year, and they probably need a lefty if Steele's in the rotation (more on him in a minute), but that's about it

 

- Alec Mills now has a career 4.07 ERA as a starter in nearly 180 innings. I'm happy to hand him a spot. Hendricks has been a mess recently, but he's clearly going into next year as a starter

 

- I wouldn't promise Alzolay a rotation spot next year, but would definitely give him the inside track on one. His dong problem is *probably* a fluke. Steele's had some flashes in the rotation, but has just not shown nearly enough. I'd let him go into next ST and try to wrestle that rotation spot from Adbert, but assume he'll be in the pen

 

So that makes the offseason shopping list 2 SPs, a SS, a corner OF, a corner IF, a veteran reliever, and a backup C. Easy peasy :-"

Not mentioned is Bote and Heyward - are you thinking they are traded/cut?

[muntjack]

Rivas will be 25 for almost the entirety of next season and has put up a ~.400 OBP at every stop. The 2022 Cubs should find a spot for him.

[Bertz]

Not mentioned is Bote and Heyward - are you thinking they are traded/cut?

 

Heyward it depends on how you feel about his off field stuff. On a pure in-game basis I'd rather have that role filled by Rivas or Deichman, but I understand if his mentorship wins out, especially in a year where we're going to start calling up prospects.

 

Bote's gotta be traded. You look at his Fangraphs page and it's fairly obvious he's a victim of some BABIP luck. That said, even the good version of Bote is redundant on a roster that already has Wisdom and and an otherwise all right handed infield.

[Sammy Sofa]

Not mentioned is Bote and Heyward

 

Salvageable pieces

 

[jersey cubs fan]

#CubTogether

[Bull]

#CubTogether

#SalvageablePieces

[UMFan83]

Crazy how quickly Happ went from "should we non-tender him instead of pay $5m next year" to "one of the 4 position players we can lock in for next year". I've always been fairly pro-Happ even during his struggles so I'm not saying that train of thought is wrong just surprising how quickly it flipped.

[NewUserName]

Crazy how quickly Happ went from "should we non-tender him instead of pay $5m next year" to "one of the 4 position players we can lock in for next year". I've always been fairly pro-Happ even during his struggles so I'm not saying that train of thought is wrong just surprising how quickly it flipped.

I dont know how these things tend to play out over a career, but Happ's extreme hot and cold issues bother me. I dont think LF would be in the top 5 places that Cubs need to improve next season. But I would be down for moving Happ if it helps net something useful and finding another LFer

[Irrelevant Dude]

Crazy how quickly Happ went from "should we non-tender him instead of pay $5m next year" to "one of the 4 position players we can lock in for next year". I've always been fairly pro-Happ even during his struggles so I'm not saying that train of thought is wrong just surprising how quickly it flipped.

I dont know how these things tend to play out over a career, but Happ's extreme hot and cold issues bother me. I dont think LF would be in the top 5 places that Cubs need to improve next season. But I would be down for moving Happ if it helps net something useful and finding another LFer

I agree. I admit I was wrong about Happ and he is definitely worth tendering a contract. But I'm still not sold on him as a long term answer in the outfield and would be willing to entertain offers to return another useable piece.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm probably overfitting this a little bit, but there's a handful of categories in my mind:

 

- Guys we can hope will be above average with a reasonable amount of certainty: Contreras, Madrigal, Hoerner

 

 

Yes, Madrigal only has so many PAs of good MLB performance and yes Hoerner has injury problems, but I think it's fair that the team is not going to block either of their path to every day starts.

 

 

- Guys with enough performance track record to be in that first group but with legit questions about repeating: Wisdom, Happ

 

 

Others may think Wisdom is closer to the Schwindel side of the coin but I think his longer period of performance(including adjustments) and his positional/defensive value keep him here. These guys are either every day players or trade bait.

 

 

- End of prime minor leaguers with good small MLB samples: Schwindel, Ortega

 

 

I'm splitting hairs a little here calling Ortega's 294 PA small while Wisdom's 362 is more sustained, but between the defense and outright performance this is where I'm drawing the line. These are guys you want as bench players or short sided platoon guys at best, if plan A is giving them 4-500 PA then you better have gone full stars/scrubs elsewhere

 

 

- Older prospects with a little room to dream on: Hermosillo, Deichmann

 

 

Despite neither doing much with limited MLB cameos, I think of this group similarly to the one above in terms of what I'm comfortable with them getting in terms of playing time. It ultimately comes down to roster fit around them from a R/L and positional perspective.

 

 

EDIT: I just realized I did prospect stuff for the pitchers but not the hitters. Davis of course and I'm too lazy now to go into as much detail for the Morel's of the world like I did for the pitchers below.

 

Everyone else I either don't rate(e.g. Alcantara) or is not under contract(e.g. Duffy, Chirinos). On the pitching side:

 

- Guys w/ MLB track records whose place on the roster is written in ink: Hendricks (SP), Wick (RP), Heuer (RP)

 

 

This is pretty self-explanatory, Hendricks is gonna be in the rotation, and Wick and Heuer will get late inning appearances as long as they're healthy, with the caveat that all relievers outside the Kimbrel tier are subject to turn to dust at any time so they can play themselves out of that role.

 

 

- Folks whose place on the roster is in ink unless multiple unlikely things happen: Mills (SP), Steele (SP/RP), Alzolay (SP/RP)

 

 

Mills is gonna be in the rotation to start the year unless 4 guys from inside or outside the org are on the opening day roster and look like better bets than him. Given the gap he's opened up between the Alzolay/Steele/Thompson cohort I don't think that's likely, but his baseline isn't so high that I feel comfortable bumping him a level. Steele's left handedness and better peripherals are why he's here and Thompson isn't.

 

 

- The group who are gonna get reliever IP but are subject to fall off the roster if they don't perform: Thompson, Nance, Rucker, Rodriguez, Wieck, Megill, Effross

 

 

This is most of the existing bullpen arms. There's probably stratification here but at this stage it's not worth separating because it's dependent on what outside players are added. I haven't looked up the option situation on any of these either which will be another differentiator.

 

 

- Pitchers likely to get reliever IP but haven't gotten the shot yet: Leeper, Roberts, Little

 

 

Now we're into prospect arms. Little is a bit of a stretch but his left handedness gives him a boost.

 

 

- SP prospects who could start an MLB game if they start 2022 strong: Jensen, Killian

 

 

Unlikely we see these folks before summer, but by the end of the year there's a chance they're playing a more significant role

 

 

- WILD CARD: Espinoza, Wicks

 

 

Foolish to plan on any contributions from them, but enough pedigree to at least drop their name after we've already mentioned nearly 20 internal options.

 

[muntjack]

Crazy how quickly Happ went from "should we non-tender him instead of pay $5m next year" to "one of the 4 position players we can lock in for next year". I've always been fairly pro-Happ even during his struggles so I'm not saying that train of thought is wrong just surprising how quickly it flipped.

I dont know how these things tend to play out over a career, but Happ's extreme hot and cold issues bother me. I dont think LF would be in the top 5 places that Cubs need to improve next season. But I would be down for moving Happ if it helps net something useful and finding another LFer

 

Not to pick on you because I think a lot of people feel that way, but this is the same thinking that led to undervaluing Schwarber. Happ just turned 27 and has had multiple stretches of major production. Some guys have to go through adjustment periods, not everyone is Tatis or Soto. Shipping these potentially big bats off when they're entering their prime years seems so foolish to me.

[Proven Veteran]

What's everyone's opinion on Rivas? Seems like a legit prospect at 1B to me, with lack of power being the main issue.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What's everyone's opinion on Rivas? Seems like a legit prospect at 1B to me, with lack of power being the main issue.

 

I'm not intimately familiar with him and haven't seen a single PA of his at the MLB level, but from reading from others and seeing his past I don't have very high hopes. The consensus seems to be that he's a 1B/DH caliber defender that isn't going to hit for corner infield power, and that's a really tough profile to be a particularly useful player. If he can be passable in LF he becomes more interesting, and if the DH gets added like we expect there's at least a chance he can play a part given how few position player spots are locked down, but a 25 year old with the ceiling of Lyle Overbay isn't a profile I'm jazzed about.

[NewUserName]

Crazy how quickly Happ went from "should we non-tender him instead of pay $5m next year" to "one of the 4 position players we can lock in for next year". I've always been fairly pro-Happ even during his struggles so I'm not saying that train of thought is wrong just surprising how quickly it flipped.

I dont know how these things tend to play out over a career, but Happ's extreme hot and cold issues bother me. I dont think LF would be in the top 5 places that Cubs need to improve next season. But I would be down for moving Happ if it helps net something useful and finding another LFer

 

Not to pick on you because I think a lot of people feel that way, but this is the same thinking that led to undervaluing Schwarber. Happ just turned 27 and has had multiple stretches of major production. Some guys have to go through adjustment periods, not everyone is Tatis or Soto. Shipping these potentially big bats off when they're entering their prime years seems so foolish to me.

I understand where you are coming from. I am not suggesting just cutting bait like we did with Schwarber and I have always been one to suggest patience with younger players. But its not like he has only been up 2 yrs, its been 4. I am also not sure "Prime" years start at 27 anymore. Yes he is a very valuable piece for stretches, but he is almost unplayable for long stretches also. I think the Cubs have many other bigger issues to address so I am content in running Happ out to left field for a whole season. Maybe by then we will have a good sense of what he is. But if he can be used to help acquire something else, I would feel very comfortable letting him go and going a different direction in Left.

[NewUserName]

What's everyone's opinion on Rivas? Seems like a legit prospect at 1B to me, with lack of power being the main issue.

 

I'm not intimately familiar with him and haven't seen a single PA of his at the MLB level, but from reading from others and seeing his past I don't have very high hopes. The consensus seems to be that he's a 1B/DH caliber defender that isn't going to hit for corner infield power, and that's a really tough profile to be a particularly useful player. If he can be passable in LF he becomes more interesting, and if the DH gets added like we expect there's at least a chance he can play a part given how few position player spots are locked down, but a 25 year old with the ceiling of Lyle Overbay isn't a profile I'm jazzed about.

I have this Dave Magadan feeling about him