Pederson to Braves

[NonProfitCow]

For 1B Bryce Ball

[NonProfitCow]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

From a preseason list, Fangraphs had Ball as Atlanta’s #11 prospect.

 

Ball hasn’t just hit, he’s mashed everywhere he’s gone. In two years at North Iowa Area Community College, he put up an 1.108 OPS. Transferring to Dallas Baptist for his junior year, he dipped to a 1.057 mark. Still, he wasn’t heavily scouted and the Braves nabbed him in the 24th round of the 2019 draft. From there, he just kept crushing baseballs, putting up a 1.023 OPS in his 62-game pro debut. Ball is an exceptionally large human being who combines raw strength and long levers to produce easy, double-plus raw power. What separates him from most power goofs is some intrinsic hitting ability as well, as while he’ll never be confused with Luis Arraez, he makes more contact than most players with his profile. His approach got a bit aggressive following a promotion to Low-A Rome in 2019, and he needs to begin focusing more on pitches he can drive as opposed to ones he can merely hit.

 

Ball’s value is entirely wrapped up in his offensive prowess. While he moves well for his size, he’s still a below average runner and inconsistent defender. Bat-only prospects are exceptionally risky, and Ball adds to the variety of outcomes by turning 23 this year (his birthday is in July) and having yet to play a full season in the minors. He’s looked overmatched at times this spring, but Atlanta is no doubt excited to see if he can put up another quadruple-digit OPS line in 2021. (Alternate site)

 

He hasnt hit so far this year, .207/.354/.396

[WrigleyField 22]

Seems like a fine trade, considering.

[17 Seconds]

now that's PTR's kind of bryce

[UMFan83]

Single A player. At least he’ll get to the majors before Yu’s kids

[mias_tisg]

I've hated basically every trade the Cubs have made the last few years but this one seems like a win for them. Joc was likely a 1 year rental and wasn't even great this year and they turned it into a decent prospect with some upside.

[Bertz]

By Fangraphs' rankings he's got the same ranking as our be somewhere between 10th to 18th guys, so he'll slide in somewhere in that range. He also joins Owen Caissie as basically our only bat-only prospects, so that's a fun change of pace.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I've hated basically every trade the Cubs have made the last few years but this one seems like a win for them. Joc was likely a 1 year rental and wasn't even great this year and they turned it into a decent prospect with some upside.

 

Yeah no complaints with this. I especially like this as a level set for deals involving more valuable pieces, and generally speaking, prospects with past performance/pedigree that arent hot after a pandemic year and a late start are a good place to potentially strike it big.

[JeffH]

SSS alert!

 

Ball in July:

 

.242/.390/.515

[UMFan83]

Does it seem strange that the Braves, who are only 0.5 games better than the Cubs at 44-45, are buying after losing Acuna?

 

I know their division is closer and this isn’t exactly a franchise changing move but seems a bit odd

[NOLA]

Better ex-Dodger Cubs career, Joc Pedersom or Todd Hollandsworth? I think I disliked Joc more.

[We Got The Whole 9]

By Fangraphs' rankings he's got the same ranking as our be somewhere between 10th to 18th guys, so he'll slide in somewhere in that range. He also joins Owen Caissie as basically our only bat-only prospects, so that's a fun change of pace.

Seems odd to label Caissie a bat-only guy if some scouts think he could handle CF. I mean he's a big dude but reportedly moves quite well.

[Derwood]

He hasnt hit so far this year, .207/.354/.396

 

112 wRC+ though

[Post Count Padder]

It's fine. Joc hasn't done super well this year so getting an interesting prospect isn't too bad. This essentially signals the sell off if they were any doubt before.

[Bertz]

By Fangraphs' rankings he's got the same ranking as our be somewhere between 10th to 18th guys, so he'll slide in somewhere in that range. He also joins Owen Caissie as basically our only bat-only prospects, so that's a fun change of pace.

Seems odd to label Caissie a bat-only guy if some scouts think he could handle CF. I mean he's a big dude but reportedly moves quite well.

 

I feel like everything I've seen has said he'll either be a RF or a 1B long term. And when 1B gets even a mention it's usually not the best sign for long term defensive value.

[Derwood]

Deal just waiting on this:

 

 

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

By Fangraphs' rankings he's got the same ranking as our be somewhere between 10th to 18th guys, so he'll slide in somewhere in that range. He also joins Owen Caissie as basically our only bat-only prospects, so that's a fun change of pace.

Seems odd to label Caissie a bat-only guy if some scouts think he could handle CF. I mean he's a big dude but reportedly moves quite well.

 

I feel like everything I've seen has said he'll either be a RF or a 1B long term. And when 1B gets even a mention it's usually not the best sign for long term defensive value.

Trying to find where I read that but I agree with what you say. I just recall recently (like within the last 2 weeks) reading that CF is a possibility in some scouts minds.

[Bertz]

[champaignchris]

Does it seem strange that the Braves, who are only 0.5 games better than the Cubs at 44-45, are buying after losing Acuna?

 

I know their division is closer and this isn’t exactly a franchise changing move but seems a bit odd

 

Playoff odds per BR: Braves 25.7%%, Cubs 4.5%

 

Playoff odds per FG: Braves 9.0%, Cubs 3.9%

[UMFan83]

Does it seem strange that the Braves, who are only 0.5 games better than the Cubs at 44-45, are buying after losing Acuna?

 

I know their division is closer and this isn’t exactly a franchise changing move but seems a bit odd

 

Playoff odds per BR: Braves 25.7%%, Cubs 4.5%

 

Playoff odds per FG: Braves 9.0%, Cubs 3.9%

 

Does that take into account not having Acuna the rest of the year? I get that they are in a better position than the Cubs…but not that much better and they lost their best player for the season. Seems like they hope that Joc can give them like 60% of what they are missing with Acuna and then hope the rest of the team plays better like they should.

 

They are also in the middle of their window so I’m not suggesting they sell.

[toonsterwu]

Seems like a decent trade. I'm not bothered by the age that much due tot he lost season, but I really don't have high expectations for Ball. I think he's more likely a guy who, at best, gets up to AAA. That said, it's Joc Pederson. Getting a gamble on a plus power tool guy, if the scouts feel there's some hope on the hitting, is a solid enough return, perhaps even better than I really hoped for.

 

I keep thinking that there's got to be another team or two involved in Bryant, but it seems like all the rumors still are on the Mets. I keep wondering, with the high cost of pitchimg, that there's maybe a team out there that will zig instead of zag, for lack of a better term, and look to pump up their offense. That said, you would figure another legitimate, solid team rumor or two would have popped up. I hope Kris can get hot a little so that the market can maybe cook a bit more.

[toonsterwu]

It's fine. Joc hasn't done super well this year so getting an interesting prospect isn't too bad. This essentially signals the sell off if they were any doubt before.

 

Meh, Pederson wasn't working out

 

I think they could trade him, Davies, Brothers, Tepera, maybe Kimbrel, even more maybe Baez, and still be a competitive team for the division. It's wild out there. I'm not as big on trading Kimbrel as most, plenty big still, obviously have no real care to trade Baez barring something franchise altering for the better

 

It's possible. If we were in the NL East, chances would be better, but you can probably find a cheap replacement for Davies and maybe get better performance. May be hard to move so many bullpen pieces and be able to replace them to stay competitive, but it's not that ridiculous to think (particularly since Adbert's innings may still be an issue later in the year. While there's no innings limit, if you sell off the pen and get a decent usable starter in return, moving Adbert to the pen at some point may be the best way to finish this year and prime things for next year).

 

I do think Tom is right in that, this move really doesn't signal a sell-off. It's probably not a move you make if you are a lot closer, but you can find a replacement for Pederson one way or another. The return on Pederson might be better than I really thought/expected due to the situation.

 

All that said, I do expect a sell-off to happen, and I'm okay with it. Wouldn't stun me if they tried to redo entire ship, although it's hard to think they can make that many trades. Still say if you get the right deal for Hendricks, you have to consider it.

[toonsterwu]

If we were in the NL East, chances would be better

 

?? Why?

 

I think the idea of trading off a chunk of the pen and staying competitive in the division is a lot easier to imagine in the East than the Central largely because I think Milwaukee is a notch above the teams in the East, and the Reds are a lot better than I thought. If you are talking simply competitive in broad terms, and not competitive for the division/playoffs, which was what I was assuming (which, in retrospect, you didn't really say), then no, it doesn't matter.

 

Honestly, I think the Reds might be a pen arm and a starter away from being a better overall team than any in the East, which I still find mildly shocking this late in the year.

[Backtobanks]

Ball might be an option down the road for DH.