Trevor Williams to Cubs

[UMFan83]

 

Can’t beat em join em?

[Bertz]

Bryan Smith at Bleacher Nation wrote him up about a week ago

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/01/26/the-cubs-sales-pitch-to-buy-low-starting-pitcher-candidates-williams-porcello-rodon-foltynewicz-archer/

 

 

What makes him unique? Among the 96 pitchers to throw 750 pitches in 2020, Williams had the 20th-lowest release height (5.5 ft). And among pitchers that have a low release height (say 5.75 feet or lower), Williams had the sixth-longest extension. That combination is rare.

 

 

How didn’t his last team do a good enough job of emphasizing that? With the combination listed above, generally speaking you’d ask a pitcher to throw his hard stuff up in the zone, where the difference between his actual and perceived velocity will play the best against hitters. Williams didn’t do that enough with his four-seam fastball, as I see using the pitch highlighter on Baseball Savant:

 

His 144 (roughly, a third) highest four-seam fastballs: .247 wOBA allowed, 29.7 whiff%

 

 

His 148 lowest four-seam fastballs: .486 wOBA allowed, 11.1 whiff%

 

How can the Cubs emphasize it better? This is a flat Vertical Approach Angle guy, pitching too often like a steep one. Let’s cut out the low four-seamers, especially given that on low-in-the-zone pitches, we can go with a sinker with above-average vertical drop.

 

Also, I notice Williams has thrown just 99 curveballs in three years. We-the-Cubs love curveballs, specifically the knuckle-curve, our Pitch Lab’s speciality. But maybe, just maybe, Williams discovered something himself late last year yourself? He’s thrown 14 curveballs with more than 2350 rpm in his career, and half of them came in September 2020. Let’s build on that.

 

Basically, he seems the most obviously pitch lab-able of the reclamation guys. The Cubs have also been loading up on low approach angle guys, so they clearly believe it's a thing.

[champaignchris]

He was ok in 17 and real good in 18. Then he started giving up a ton of HRs.

[Schwarber Fan]

I always kinda liked this guy, even though his numbers look terrible on the face. He’s probably better than whatever the alternative was going to be after Hendricks/Davies/Mills/Alzolay

[Post Count Padder]

He looked like he was gonna break out and then took a major step back. Good project for the pitching lab and good depth. Assuming the money isn't much. I assume they bring back one of Arrieta/Shark now and have an all buy-low rotation.

 

Could do worse than:

 

Hendricks

Davies

Alzolay

Mills

other vet starter

Trevor Williams/Shelby Miller

 

and AAA guys like Tyson Miller, Cory Abbott, etc. And forgot Kohl Stewart, who got a MLB deal.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Post Count Padder

[Bertz]

Looks like he only has four years of service time too, so we should have him under control for 2022 as well. 3 MiLB options too.

[Bertz]

[UMFan83]

Yes I prefer we kept Darvish instead of gutting the rotation down to just Hendricks but I am a little excited about the idea of getting 7-8 guys and trying to find 4 we can revive. All this ink about the pitch lab, time to put its stamp on baseball

[David]

[Cubswin11]

Really like this move for what it is, reasonably dependable innings eater with maybe a little more to unlock with some tweaks. Now go sign Wong and maybe another flyer pitcher and we at least have a decent chance to win the division.

[Backtobanks]

Really like this move for what it is, reasonably dependable innings eater with maybe a little more to unlock with some tweaks. Now go sign Wong and maybe another flyer pitcher and we at least have a decent chance to win the division.

 

Yeah, he durable, cheap, and has some potential for being decent. Certainly seems like a good pick for BOR starter.

[Gilby]

Closest we'll get to Bryce Harper

[chopsx9]

Bryan Smith at Bleacher Nation wrote him up about a week ago

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/01/26/the-cubs-sales-pitch-to-buy-low-starting-pitcher-candidates-williams-porcello-rodon-foltynewicz-archer/

 

 

What makes him unique? Among the 96 pitchers to throw 750 pitches in 2020, Williams had the 20th-lowest release height (5.5 ft). And among pitchers that have a low release height (say 5.75 feet or lower), Williams had the sixth-longest extension. That combination is rare.

 

 

Isn't this sort of a nonsensical statement? I mean, is it really that rare or unique (can't actually be both) a combination if 19 other guys have lower release points and then 5 of those have longer extensions?? So he's 75ish percentile in both groups - is that rare??

[Brian]

well this is cool (Trevor's dad)

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Bertz]

Isn't this sort of a nonsensical statement? I mean, is it really that rare or unique (can't actually be both) a combination if 19 other guys have lower release points and then 5 of those have longer extensions?? So he's 75ish percentile in both groups - is that rare??

 

To an extent that's absolutely fair. I guess some context is that Bryan, after talking with some Cubs folks, has been talking up low approach angle all offseason. Here's a good explainer about it from FG

 

 

This is the money chart

 

 

The red is good here. The top right is high pitches from low release points, while the bottom left is low pitches from high release points. The Cubs have been seemingly loading up on guys in the top right, and Williams is the latest example.

 

Extension basically gives you a boost in perceived velocity. I don't remember the number off hand, but it's something like every six inches of extension above average equates to 1 MPH of extra perceived velocity. So while Williams sits at 92, it likely plays up beyond that.

 

As an aside, while I like Bleacher Nation generally, Bryan Smith is legitimately *really* good.

[sneakypower]

Could do worse than:

 

Hendricks

Davies

Alzolay

Mills

other vet starter

Trevor Williams/Shelby Miller

 

and AAA guys like Tyson Miller, Cory Abbott, etc. And forgot Kohl Stewart, who got a MLB deal.

be careful this almost sounds like a challenge

[CubinNY]

I like this signing simply because Williams seems like a cool dude on twitter.

[Bertz]