Bears Week 14: Deshaun Watson Makes his Soldier Field Debut

[minnesotacubsfan]

But it could also be because of their decision to keep everybody around!

 

 

For the record, if they do bring in a legit president of football ops I have absolutely no problem with keeping Pace and Nagy this offseason.

 

I think I'm ok with it too. I really want Nagy gone. I understand if a new president wants to evaluate the guys for a year, but I think it's clear Nagy is NOT the guy. I see 0 chance he's coaching the team in 2022, so don't know why he'd be here in 2021. Pace I could see staying on longer if he hits on the next coach and QB and things are looking upward pretty quickly.

 

The key to me is not to have Pace in desperation mode. A team president should prevent big contracts with tons of dead money like he gave to Quinn, Graham and Foles. But at the same time, it probably wouldn't prevent a potentially bold move for a franchise QB.

My thoughts on Nagy and Pace are complete opposites.

 

I hated what Nagy did with the kicker search. And his offense has been garbage most of the time. But I think he's been hamstrung by Pace's roster miscues. I could see Nagy learning from his mistakes and doing better down the road, whereas I think Pace is what he is.

 

I'm terrified of Pace drafting sometimes. He (like every other Bears GM before him) can pick D well, but when he focuses in on an offensive player, ufff. He's a hard one for me because I like the Smith, Jackson, Johnson picks, but getting duffed on Trubisky because the 49'ers supposedly had interest from another team, and the fact he just liked Trubiskys car, scares the hell out me.

[UMFan83]

 

I think I'm ok with it too. I really want Nagy gone. I understand if a new president wants to evaluate the guys for a year, but I think it's clear Nagy is NOT the guy. I see 0 chance he's coaching the team in 2022, so don't know why he'd be here in 2021. Pace I could see staying on longer if he hits on the next coach and QB and things are looking upward pretty quickly.

 

The key to me is not to have Pace in desperation mode. A team president should prevent big contracts with tons of dead money like he gave to Quinn, Graham and Foles. But at the same time, it probably wouldn't prevent a potentially bold move for a franchise QB.

My thoughts on Nagy and Pace are complete opposites.

 

I hated what Nagy did with the kicker search. And his offense has been garbage most of the time. But I think he's been hamstrung by Pace's roster miscues. I could see Nagy learning from his mistakes and doing better down the road, whereas I think Pace is what he is.

 

I'm terrified of Pace drafting sometimes. He (like every other Bears GM before him) can pick D well, but when he focuses in on an offensive player, ufff. He's a hard one for me because I like the Smith, Jackson, Johnson picks, but getting duffed on Trubisky because the 49'ers supposedly had interest from another team, and the fact he just liked Trubiskys car, scares the hell out me.

 

We've talked a ton about Pace's issues. If we are unlikely to keep him beyond 2021, we need to just cut him loose now. He simply does not accurately value draft picks and we cant afford him running another draft IMO.

[WrigleyField 22]

But it could also be because of their decision to keep everybody around!

 

 

For the record, if they do bring in a legit president of football ops I have absolutely no problem with keeping Pace and Nagy this offseason.

 

I think I'm ok with it too. I really want Nagy gone. I understand if a new president wants to evaluate the guys for a year, but I think it's clear Nagy is NOT the guy. I see 0 chance he's coaching the team in 2022, so don't know why he'd be here in 2021. Pace I could see staying on longer if he hits on the next coach and QB and things are looking upward pretty quickly.

 

The key to me is not to have Pace in desperation mode. A team president should prevent big contracts with tons of dead money like he gave to Quinn, Graham and Foles. But at the same time, it probably wouldn't prevent a potentially bold move for a franchise QB.

My thoughts on Nagy and Pace are complete opposites.

 

I hated what Nagy did with the kicker search. And his offense has been garbage most of the time. But I think he's been hamstrung by Pace's roster miscues. I could see Nagy learning from his mistakes and doing better down the road, whereas I think Pace is what he is.

I still mostly view them as a package deal. If the decision is to keep for 2021 the big question remains if Pace is a lame duck GM or not. So there's that important contract question.

 

If there's a potential Phillips change happening that also complicates things just a touch. If there really my be a Phillips "retirement" I really could see Nagy retained with an interim GM (Kelly/Sadowski) and a longer Pres search who then makes final decisions about org later in 2021. Admittedly it kind of punts 2021 and doesn't give Nagy quite a fair shot at retaining his job, but maybe you give him final 53 man say or something like that.

 

But if there is any truth to that rumor that Pace actually has a contract through 2022 you skip the interim part and don't have a true lame duck GM.

[raw]

 

I think I'm ok with it too. I really want Nagy gone. I understand if a new president wants to evaluate the guys for a year, but I think it's clear Nagy is NOT the guy. I see 0 chance he's coaching the team in 2022, so don't know why he'd be here in 2021. Pace I could see staying on longer if he hits on the next coach and QB and things are looking upward pretty quickly.

 

The key to me is not to have Pace in desperation mode. A team president should prevent big contracts with tons of dead money like he gave to Quinn, Graham and Foles. But at the same time, it probably wouldn't prevent a potentially bold move for a franchise QB.

My thoughts on Nagy and Pace are complete opposites.

 

I hated what Nagy did with the kicker search. And his offense has been garbage most of the time. But I think he's been hamstrung by Pace's roster miscues. I could see Nagy learning from his mistakes and doing better down the road, whereas I think Pace is what he is.

 

I'm terrified of Pace drafting sometimes. He (like every other Bears GM before him) can pick D well, but when he focuses in on an offensive player, ufff. He's a hard one for me because I like the Smith, Jackson, Johnson picks, but getting duffed on Trubisky because the 49'ers supposedly had interest from another team, and the fact he just liked Trubiskys car, scares the hell out me.

 

Eh. His drafting has been fine. Even offensively, he's added starters/key contributors in Whitehair, Daniels, Cohen, Miller, Howard, Montgomery, Kmet, and Mooney. Trubisky wasn't even a disaster of a pick, but obviously not the right one. Getting the QB wrong though is a fireable offensse.

[raw]

But it could also be because of their decision to keep everybody around!

 

 

For the record, if they do bring in a legit president of football ops I have absolutely no problem with keeping Pace and Nagy this offseason.

 

I think I'm ok with it too. I really want Nagy gone. I understand if a new president wants to evaluate the guys for a year, but I think it's clear Nagy is NOT the guy. I see 0 chance he's coaching the team in 2022, so don't know why he'd be here in 2021. Pace I could see staying on longer if he hits on the next coach and QB and things are looking upward pretty quickly.

 

The key to me is not to have Pace in desperation mode. A team president should prevent big contracts with tons of dead money like he gave to Quinn, Graham and Foles. But at the same time, it probably wouldn't prevent a potentially bold move for a franchise QB.

My thoughts on Nagy and Pace are complete opposites.

 

I hated what Nagy did with the kicker search. And his offense has been garbage most of the time. But I think he's been hamstrung by Pace's roster miscues. I could see Nagy learning from his mistakes and doing better down the road, whereas I think Pace is what he is.

 

I could see Nagy learning from his mistakes too, but I put a LOT of stock in the things he has failed at. His offense has been garbage the whole time. Going entire halves in like half his games is unforgiveable. The in-game stuff is bad too with bad timeouts and negative plays after those timeouts. And i know Pace makes the final call, but I dont think it's all his fault Nagy doesnt have an OL to work with. He seems to be adding pieces Nagy thinks he needs. The whole thing w/ Howard not being the right fit led to a trade of Howard, then a trade up for Montgomery. Gabriel and the Mooney pick were done for Nagy's desire of speed. This offseason they clearly focused on getting a QB that could run the offense Nagy wanted (which didnt work) and fixing the TE positions to Nagy's liking, including giving him one of his former Chief players. If Nagy treated OL help like he did the need for TE help, then I have no question Pace would have spent on a guard rather than Jimmy Graham.

[jersey cubs fan]

Trubisky wasn't even a disaster of a pick, but obviously not the right one. Getting the QB wrong though is a fireable offensse.

Making that statement is a fireable offense.

[minnesotacubsfan]

My thoughts on Nagy and Pace are complete opposites.

 

I hated what Nagy did with the kicker search. And his offense has been garbage most of the time. But I think he's been hamstrung by Pace's roster miscues. I could see Nagy learning from his mistakes and doing better down the road, whereas I think Pace is what he is.

 

I'm terrified of Pace drafting sometimes. He (like every other Bears GM before him) can pick D well, but when he focuses in on an offensive player, ufff. He's a hard one for me because I like the Smith, Jackson, Johnson picks, but getting duffed on Trubisky because the 49'ers supposedly had interest from another team, and the fact he just liked Trubiskys car, scares the hell out me.

 

Eh. His drafting has been fine. Even offensively, he's added starters/key contributors in Whitehair, Daniels, Cohen, Miller, Howard, Montgomery, Kmet, and Mooney. Trubisky wasn't even a disaster of a pick, but obviously not the right one. Getting the QB wrong though is a fireable offensse.

 

the reasons he gave for trading up and taking Trubisky were f-in bonkers.

 

I agree with you on the other guys you point out

[raw]

Trubisky wasn't even a disaster of a pick, but obviously not the right one. Getting the QB wrong though is a fireable offensse.

Making that statement is a fireable offense.

 

Eh. He'll leave the Bears with a well over .500 record, the Bears all time leader in QB rating, and won't be out of the league next year. I consider that not catastrophic. It's a bad pick, but it's not Brandon Weeden, Johnny Manziel, Jamarcus Russell bad.

[WrigleyField 22]

 

I'm terrified of Pace drafting sometimes. He (like every other Bears GM before him) can pick D well, but when he focuses in on an offensive player, ufff. He's a hard one for me because I like the Smith, Jackson, Johnson picks, but getting duffed on Trubisky because the 49'ers supposedly had interest from another team, and the fact he just liked Trubiskys car, scares the hell out me.

 

Eh. His drafting has been fine. Even offensively, he's added starters/key contributors in Whitehair, Daniels, Cohen, Miller, Howard, Montgomery, Kmet, and Mooney. Trubisky wasn't even a disaster of a pick, but obviously not the right one. Getting the QB wrong though is a fireable offensse.

 

the reasons he gave for trading up and taking Trubisky were f-in bonkers.

 

I agree with you on the other guys you point out

We talking about the car stuff or the fielding phone call thing apart of the trade up? Or everything?

 

I try to not too much stock into the marshmellowy type stories like the car thing.

 

And I still kind of get the trade up logic about fielding calls from other teams. The piece with the trade up that now makes no sense is that Mahomes and Trubisky were apparently in the same of "cloud" of prospects. If you have a QB who's head and shoulders above the next QB, sure be aggressive, but the 3 pick insurance policy is silly if you had two QBs close together. Especially when you were also obsessed with covering your tracks about your QB interest.

 

So I hate that, now especially. And I hated the White pick. Everything else draft wise I more or less understood the logic of and its just that sometimes you hit and sometimes you whiff.

[Bertz]

To me Pace is Jim Hendry. He's a good, maybe even great, scout. But he just doesn't understand value. You can't trade up for Trubisky, Floyd, and Montgomery like he did, you just can't. You can't give up two firsts for Mack, AND THEN make him the highest paid defensive player ever.

 

He's that guy in your fantasy league who takes all his sleepers like 5 rounds too early. Yeah congrats you were right on DK Metcalf, but since you took him in round 4 you pissed away any surplus value your strong scouting eye should have bought you.

[WrigleyField 22]

To me Pace is Jim Hendry. He's a good, maybe even great, scout. But he just doesn't understand value. You can't trade up for Trubisky, Floyd, and Montgomery like he did, you just can't. You can't give up two firsts for Mack, AND THEN make him the highest paid defensive player ever.

 

He's that guy in your fantasy league who takes all his sleepers like 5 rounds too early. Yeah congrats you were right on DK Metcalf, but since you took him in round 4 you pissed away any surplus value your strong scouting eye should have bought you.

QBs are worth trading up for. Edge guys probably are worth it too. You just have to hit. There definitely isn't a overall value issue there, IMO. RB, not so much, but at that point we're looking at more an exception than rule issue and he's moved up and down the middle rounds, occassionally with great success!

 

ETA as to Mack specifically, while I think the goal obviously is to spend efficiently in a capped league, I do kind of feel like you can get away with a less than efficient purchase here and there if it adds great win value. I'd rather use every last cap dollar available and get 12 wins than spend 80% of the cap efficiently and get 10 wins (obviously it's not so simplistic, but that would be the gist of my philosophy. So you're allowed like one Mack, as long as the big picture "value" decisions make sense, IMO)

Edited December 16, 2020 by WrigleyField 22

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

 

And I still kind of get the trade up logic about fielding calls from other teams. The piece with the trade up that now makes no sense is that Mahomes and Trubisky were apparently in the same of "cloud" of prospects. If you have a QB who's head and shoulders above the next QB, sure be aggressive, but the 3 pick insurance policy is silly if you had two QBs close together. Especially when you were also obsessed with covering your tracks about your QB interest.

.

 

pretty much this in a nutshell, although when he starts to glowingly talk about Trubiskys beater car, I feel justified in pointing it out as stupid

[WrigleyField 22]

pretty much this in a nutshell, although when he starts to glowingly talk about Trubiskys beater car, I feel justified in pointing it out as stupid

Perhaps it's only for my own sanity, but I chalk up that kind of talk to silly quotable marshmellowy stuff rather than actual value inputs. Like describing QB evaluation to journalists and fans from a plethora of scouting notes and tape is probably kind of hard and may require some esoteric knowledge. So if I was a GM I'd probably use dumb feel good anecdotes too rather than try and explain how my scouting/eval system works.

[Bertz]

To me Pace is Jim Hendry. He's a good, maybe even great, scout. But he just doesn't understand value. You can't trade up for Trubisky, Floyd, and Montgomery like he did, you just can't. You can't give up two firsts for Mack, AND THEN make him the highest paid defensive player ever.

 

He's that guy in your fantasy league who takes all his sleepers like 5 rounds too early. Yeah congrats you were right on DK Metcalf, but since you took him in round 4 you pissed away any surplus value your strong scouting eye should have bought you.

QBs are worth trading up for. Edge guys probably are worth it too. You just have to hit. There definitely isn't a overall value issue there, IMO. RB, not so much, but at that point we're looking at more an exception than rule issue and he's moved up and down the middle rounds, occassionally with great success!

 

ETA as to Mack specifically, while I think the goal obviously is to spend efficiently in a capped league, I do kind of feel like you can get away with a less than efficient purchase here and there if it adds great win value. I'd rather use every last cap dollar available and get 12 wins than spend 80% of the cap efficiently and get 10 wins (obviously it's not so simplistic, but that would be the gist of my philosophy. So you're allowed like one Mack, as long as the big picture "value" decisions make sense, IMO)

 

That's the key. "Here and there" is prudent, Pace does it at every opportunity.

[minnesotacubsfan]

pretty much this in a nutshell, although when he starts to glowingly talk about Trubiskys beater car, I feel justified in pointing it out as stupid

Perhaps it's only for my own sanity, but I chalk up that kind of talk to silly quotable marshmellowy stuff rather than actual value inputs. Like describing QB evaluation to journalists and fans from a plethora of scouting notes and tape is probably kind of hard and may require some esoteric knowledge. So if I was a GM I'd probably use dumb feel good anecdotes too rather than try and explain how my scouting/eval system works.

 

 

yes but he missed on Kid Jordan and Pippen #2 (to stretch a sports metaphor). Marshmellowy stuff just makes it worse. If he said "I flipped a coin because, wow want a choice! - all my scouts and numbers and slide rules were off the f-n charts"; I could respect it more. As it is, all I have is "nice car"

 

eta: in the end, this is a weird thing to split hairs on cuz for either reason we would still be stuck watching other teams get great quarterbacks....and we dont

[WrigleyField 22]

To me Pace is Jim Hendry. He's a good, maybe even great, scout. But he just doesn't understand value. You can't trade up for Trubisky, Floyd, and Montgomery like he did, you just can't. You can't give up two firsts for Mack, AND THEN make him the highest paid defensive player ever.

 

He's that guy in your fantasy league who takes all his sleepers like 5 rounds too early. Yeah congrats you were right on DK Metcalf, but since you took him in round 4 you pissed away any surplus value your strong scouting eye should have bought you.

QBs are worth trading up for. Edge guys probably are worth it too. You just have to hit. There definitely isn't a overall value issue there, IMO. RB, not so much, but at that point we're looking at more an exception than rule issue and he's moved up and down the middle rounds, occassionally with great success!

 

ETA as to Mack specifically, while I think the goal obviously is to spend efficiently in a capped league, I do kind of feel like you can get away with a less than efficient purchase here and there if it adds great win value. I'd rather use every last cap dollar available and get 12 wins than spend 80% of the cap efficiently and get 10 wins (obviously it's not so simplistic, but that would be the gist of my philosophy. So you're allowed like one Mack, as long as the big picture "value" decisions make sense, IMO)

 

That's the key. "Here and there" is prudent, Pace does it at every opportunity.

But not really?

 

Here's some context as far as how I see draft/FA management. Both when he traded up for Trubisky and Floyd he traded down in the same draft to recoup picks. In the Mack trade, while he gave up 2 firsts he got back a couple picks (including a 2nd) so the net pick loss was only net 1 I think.

 

His FA from 2015-2019 mostly considering of targeting "ascending"/younger players rather than "paying for past performance" and generally has meant he's spread dough around. 2020 was a big change in that regards. In managing the FA process he got them back into the comp pick game in about 5 years which is about as realistically as fast as you could have hoped he would considering the draft classes he inherited.

 

These are all things that give me some reason to believe he has a decent high level draft and FA value strategy, despite areas I can highlight that go against it. He tends on the aggressive side with particular targets obviously, but I don't know if I see the Hendry comparison.

[WrigleyField 22]

Perhaps it's only for my own sanity, but I chalk up that kind of talk to silly quotable marshmellowy stuff rather than actual value inputs. Like describing QB evaluation to journalists and fans from a plethora of scouting notes and tape is probably kind of hard and may require some esoteric knowledge. So if I was a GM I'd probably use dumb feel good anecdotes too rather than try and explain how my scouting/eval system works.

 

 

yes but he missed on Kid Jordan and Pippen #2 (to stretch a sports metaphor). Marshmellowy stuff just makes it worse. If he said "I flipped a coin because, wow want a choice! - all my scouts and numbers and slide rules were off the f-n charts"; I could respect it more. As it is, all I have is "nice car"

 

eta: in the end, this is a weird thing to split hairs on cuz for either reason we would still be stuck watching other teams get great quarterbacks....and we dont

I think it's less splitting hairs and perhaps more overall perspective? I always look towards the most logical explanation unless I have really good reason not too. Again that may just be to save my sanity and expecting the least logical explanation. In any case, the result sucks, yea.

[raw]

To me Pace is Jim Hendry. He's a good, maybe even great, scout. But he just doesn't understand value. You can't trade up for Trubisky, Floyd, and Montgomery like he did, you just can't. You can't give up two firsts for Mack, AND THEN make him the highest paid defensive player ever.

 

He's that guy in your fantasy league who takes all his sleepers like 5 rounds too early. Yeah congrats you were right on DK Metcalf, but since you took him in round 4 you pissed away any surplus value your strong scouting eye should have bought you.

QBs are worth trading up for. Edge guys probably are worth it too. You just have to hit. There definitely isn't a overall value issue there, IMO. RB, not so much, but at that point we're looking at more an exception than rule issue and he's moved up and down the middle rounds, occassionally with great success!

 

ETA as to Mack specifically, while I think the goal obviously is to spend efficiently in a capped league, I do kind of feel like you can get away with a less than efficient purchase here and there if it adds great win value. I'd rather use every last cap dollar available and get 12 wins than spend 80% of the cap efficiently and get 10 wins (obviously it's not so simplistic, but that would be the gist of my philosophy. So you're allowed like one Mack, as long as the big picture "value" decisions make sense, IMO)

 

That's the key. "Here and there" is prudent, Pace does it at every opportunity.

 

Between Floyd, Trubisky, Mack, Miller, and Montgomery; Pace is at a net -9 in top 125 picks. He did get +4 in the trades down for picks used to get Whitehair and Shaheen, but all those picks were in the 110-125 area.

 

But not sure what you mean re: Mack. If you make the trade for him (and I'm fine with that singular trade), then you best be prepared to pay him as the highest paid defensive player.

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't think I'm following the net - 9 comment.

 

It's basically a pick rounds 1-4. There's two forth rounders that fall at 126 and 127. I'm counting 24 first-fourth rounders in 6 drafts. 3 more this draft. So just a tad less than the total number you'd expect to get in that timeframe. I get the point about a glut of 4th rounders, and I suppose you could assign a trade chart value to it as a whole and see where that ends up, but it doesn't necessarily feel egregious.

 

I guess if I take your net - 5 and add the 126 and 126th picks it'd be - 3 whereas I'm at net - 1 so you must be missing elsewhere where picks were recouped in that range?

[raw]

I don't think I'm following the net - 9 comment.

 

It's basically a pick rounds 1-4. There's two forth rounders that fall at 126 and 127. I'm counting 24 first-fourth rounders in 6 drafts. 3 more this draft. So just a tad less than the total number you'd expect to get in that timeframe. I get the point about a glut of 4th rounders, and I suppose you could assign a trade chart value to it as a whole and see where that ends up, but it doesn't necessarily feel egregious.

 

I guess if I take your net - 5 and add the 126 and 126th picks it'd be - 3 whereas I'm at net - 1 so you must be missing elsewhere where picks were recouped in that range?

 

Floyd- Got 9, Gave up 11, 106 (-1)

Trubisky- Got 2, Gave up 3, 67, 111, 70 (future pick) (-3)

Miller- Got 51, Gave up 105, 56 (Future pick) (-1)

Mack- Got Mack, 50 (future pick). Gave up 24, 19, 81 (future picks) (-2)

Montgomery- Got 73 (and late picks). Gave up 87, 125 (future pick) (-1)

 

I counted wrong by 1.

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't think I'm following the net - 9 comment.

 

It's basically a pick rounds 1-4. There's two forth rounders that fall at 126 and 127. I'm counting 24 first-fourth rounders in 6 drafts. 3 more this draft. So just a tad less than the total number you'd expect to get in that timeframe. I get the point about a glut of 4th rounders, and I suppose you could assign a trade chart value to it as a whole and see where that ends up, but it doesn't necessarily feel egregious.

 

I guess if I take your net - 5 and add the 126 and 126th picks it'd be - 3 whereas I'm at net - 1 so you must be missing elsewhere where picks were recouped in that range?

 

Floyd- Got 9, Gave up 11, 106 (-1)

Trubisky- Got 2, Gave up 3, 67, 111, 70 (future pick) (-3)

Miller- Got 51, Gave up 105, 56 (Future pick) (-1)

Mack- Got Mack, 50 (future pick). Gave up 24, 19, 81 (future picks) (-2)

Montgomery- Got 73 (and late picks). Gave up 87, 125 (future pick) (-1)

 

I counted wrong by 1.

Must be missing +1 somewhere in a trade down or vet trade. Martellus Bennet netted them a 4th (though they gave up a 6th). So on the whole they're net negative 1 in the top 4 rounds through this next year, while also being plus Mack and less Bennett in that movement. They also netted an Amos comp pick they traded for Foles. Early on he had some other vet trades like Marshall and Allen pick up day 3 picks, I think. And will start to pick up some more day 3 comp picks this year and perhaps next.

 

Last time I looked he was averaging right about 7 picks per draft, so it's just a question of overall value (i.e. Should have been average 10th pick value and was 15th pic value) and then considering any outgoing and incoming vets as part of that transactional data, I suppose.

[raw]

I don't think I'm following the net - 9 comment.

 

It's basically a pick rounds 1-4. There's two forth rounders that fall at 126 and 127. I'm counting 24 first-fourth rounders in 6 drafts. 3 more this draft. So just a tad less than the total number you'd expect to get in that timeframe. I get the point about a glut of 4th rounders, and I suppose you could assign a trade chart value to it as a whole and see where that ends up, but it doesn't necessarily feel egregious.

 

I guess if I take your net - 5 and add the 126 and 126th picks it'd be - 3 whereas I'm at net - 1 so you must be missing elsewhere where picks were recouped in that range?

 

Floyd- Got 9, Gave up 11, 106 (-1)

Trubisky- Got 2, Gave up 3, 67, 111, 70 (future pick) (-3)

Miller- Got 51, Gave up 105, 56 (Future pick) (-1)

Mack- Got Mack, 50 (future pick). Gave up 24, 19, 81 (future picks) (-2)

Montgomery- Got 73 (and late picks). Gave up 87, 125 (future pick) (-1)

 

I counted wrong by 1.

Must be missing +1 somewhere in a trade down or vet trade. Martellus Bennet netted them a 4th (though they gave up a 6th). So on the whole they're net negative 1 in the top 4 rounds through this next year, while also being plus Mack and less Bennett in that movement. They also netted an Amos comp pick they traded for Foles. Early on he had some other vet trades like Marshall and Allen pick up day 3 picks, I think. And will start to pick up some more day 3 comp picks this year and perhaps next.

 

Last time I looked he was averaging right about 7 picks per draft, so it's just a question of overall value (i.e. Should have been average 10th pick value and was 15th pic value) and then considering any outgoing and incoming vets as part of that transactional data, I suppose.

 

I was talking about those 5 specific trades that were made for a very specific target.

[WrigleyField 22]

 

Floyd- Got 9, Gave up 11, 106 (-1)

Trubisky- Got 2, Gave up 3, 67, 111, 70 (future pick) (-3)

Miller- Got 51, Gave up 105, 56 (Future pick) (-1)

Mack- Got Mack, 50 (future pick). Gave up 24, 19, 81 (future picks) (-2)

Montgomery- Got 73 (and late picks). Gave up 87, 125 (future pick) (-1)

 

I counted wrong by 1.

Must be missing +1 somewhere in a trade down or vet trade. Martellus Bennet netted them a 4th (though they gave up a 6th). So on the whole they're net negative 1 in the top 4 rounds through this next year, while also being plus Mack and less Bennett in that movement. They also netted an Amos comp pick they traded for Foles. Early on he had some other vet trades like Marshall and Allen pick up day 3 picks, I think. And will start to pick up some more day 3 comp picks this year and perhaps next.

 

Last time I looked he was averaging right about 7 picks per draft, so it's just a question of overall value (i.e. Should have been average 10th pick value and was 15th pic value) and then considering any outgoing and incoming vets as part of that transactional data, I suppose.

 

I was talking about those 5 specific trades that were made for a very specific target.

Well you also mentioned the trade downs too that netted extra picks. Seems relevant.

[WrigleyField 22]

Must be missing +1 somewhere in a trade down or vet trade. Martellus Bennet netted them a 4th (though they gave up a 6th). So on the whole they're net negative 1 in the top 4 rounds through this next year, while also being plus Mack and less Bennett in that movement. They also netted an Amos comp pick they traded for Foles. Early on he had some other vet trades like Marshall and Allen pick up day 3 picks, I think. And will start to pick up some more day 3 comp picks this year and perhaps next.

 

Last time I looked he was averaging right about 7 picks per draft, so it's just a question of overall value (i.e. Should have been average 10th pick value and was 15th pic value) and then considering any outgoing and incoming vets as part of that transactional data, I suppose.

 

I was talking about those 5 specific trades that were made for a very specific target.

Well you also mentioned the trade downs too that netted extra picks. Seems relevant.

Nevermind, I miscounted as well. They're at 22 round 4 picks through 6 drafts. So -2. And will be another -1 this year assuming no additional movement. Also 39 total picks through 6 drafts so -3 overall as well. I think they'll be at +1 overall this year with the late comp picks.

[WrigleyField 22]

Alright, unless I messed something up here;

 

If the Bears had stood pat, their average draft value via the "traditional" trade value chart should come out to about the 10th pick overall (12,942 points, over 6 drafts or 2,157 points per draft)

 

Their actual draft position has yielded 11,375 or 1,895 points/draft, or about the value of the 14th point. So in exchange for a value trade off from 10th team to 14th team over 6 years (which is actually quite a bit - in points terms about one 19th overall pick). For all that moving draft position, they also got Khalil Mack, Eddy Piniero, and Nick Foles. They traded away Bennet, Allen, Marshall, and Shaheen and lost in FA Amos who netted a comp pick. Their FA losses of Daniels, Williams, and perhaps Pierre Louis will also net some comp picks this year.

 

So do with that as you will as far as his valuing of draft (and there's probably better value tools than the traditional chart, that's just the most readily available)