2020-21 Offseason Top Prospects Lists

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Not to take anything away from Clarke's curveball, it's clearly very good, but MLB.com is known for being generous with their 20/80 grades, just fyi.

 

And Rotowire is typically a fantasy sports site. I don't know the exact context of the quoted top ten list, but it seems to be almost exclusively based on upside and thus would more aptly apply to minor leaguers you may want to draft and stash in a dynasty fantasy baseball league...

 

Fair point about Rotowire.

 

But it isn’t the 65 grade on Clarke’s curve that necessarily piqued my interest so much, but rather that they feel his curve is tied for 2nd best in the minors. That’s fun stuff.

 

The 65 rating/second best in the minors was by MLB Pipeline (which IMO is more exciting than minor league comments from Rotowire).

[CubsWin]

Not to take anything away from Clarke's curveball, it's clearly very good, but MLB.com is known for being generous with their 20/80 grades, just fyi.

 

And Rotowire is typically a fantasy sports site. I don't know the exact context of the quoted top ten list, but it seems to be almost exclusively based on upside and thus would more aptly apply to minor leaguers you may want to draft and stash in a dynasty fantasy baseball league...

 

Fair point about Rotowire.

 

But it isn’t the 65 grade on Clarke’s curve that necessarily piqued my interest so much, but rather that they feel his curve is tied for 2nd best in the minors. That’s fun stuff.

Indeed!

[Hrubes20]

Not to take anything away from Clarke's curveball, it's clearly very good, but MLB.com is known for being generous with their 20/80 grades, just fyi.

 

And Rotowire is typically a fantasy sports site. I don't know the exact context of the quoted top ten list, but it seems to be almost exclusively based on upside and thus would more aptly apply to minor leaguers you may want to draft and stash in a dynasty fantasy baseball league...

 

Fair point about Rotowire.

 

But it isn’t the 65 grade on Clarke’s curve that necessarily piqued my interest so much, but rather that they feel his curve is tied for 2nd best in the minors. That’s fun stuff.

 

The 65 rating/second best in the minors was by MLB Pipeline (which IMO is more exciting than minor league comments from Rotowire).

 

Yeah, I knew that. I just didn't format my response very well. And I absolutely agree with you that it is much more exciting. So many guys that have a chance to break out this year. May can't come soon enough.

[CubsWin]

 

Fair point about Rotowire.

 

But it isn’t the 65 grade on Clarke’s curve that necessarily piqued my interest so much, but rather that they feel his curve is tied for 2nd best in the minors. That’s fun stuff.

 

The 65 rating/second best in the minors was by MLB Pipeline (which IMO is more exciting than minor league comments from Rotowire).

 

Yeah, I knew that. I just didn't format my response very well. And I absolutely agree with you that it is much more exciting. So many guys that have a chance to break out this year. May can't come soon enough.

So many, and both hitters and pitchers.

 

Starters who could breakout: Franklin, Jensen, R. Thompson, McAvene, Clarke, Gallardo, B. Rodriguez, Herz.

Relievers who could breakout: Carraway, B. Little, Bigge, Roberts, Hudson, M. Rodriguez.

Hitters who could breakout: Strumpf, Howard, Preciado, Hernandez, Roederer, C. Morel, Pinango, Nwogu, Santana, Mena, Caissie, R. Morel, Quintero, Hearn, Made, Verdugo.

 

That's 30 guys I'm legitimately excited to see how they do and that doesn't even include Marquez, Davis and Amaya. The season cannot start soon enough.

[Bear Cub]

Thanks Bomb!

[Tim]

This is my preseason top 30, going off the rails to see what this looks like later. I freely make assumptions about 2020s that didn't happen and other stuff probably:

 

1: Howard

 

Highest rated prospect they've signed since Bryant, by a country mile as perhaps the youths still say, and the only guy with an obvious superstar ceiling in the system. I'm thinking Troy Tulowitzki without the NCAA induced wear and tear kind of ceiling, have some confidence saying he's 6'3" 195-205 already with those posts from September, and he's going to move fast

 

2: Davis

 

Going from unlikely 2nd round pick to likely MLer in 3 years is a big deal. BA noted some issues with elevated velocity, and in general I believe there aren't enough games and PAs under his belt to count on hims as a high average hitter most years. My ideal way to break him into the MLs is as a high use backup OF over the next 2 years while all of Pederson/Happ/Heyward are under contract, starting full time in 2023 as an ascending player. If things go really great the tools are there to be a George Springer kind of player

 

3: Marquez

 

No other prospect in the org is better set up to make an impact on the 2021 ML roster. I still think his impact will be similar to Woodruff's on the Brewers, and note that Woodruff hasn't exactly eaten a ton of innings. I think the Cubs will bring him along slowly at the ML level and he won't top 100 innings until he's ~24. No clue whether he's starting in five years, but he mostly will over the next few. The ability to hold 96-97+ over multiple innings is going to play, both his four seam and changeup got whiffs in the zone during his brief debut, and he threw 4 of 7 sliders for strikes. At least nominally a 5 pitch guy since he'll mix in a sinker and curveball

 

4: Jensen

 

He throws as hard as Marquez, has better secondaries, has had the most dominant season between the two, and is one of the few prospects in the org we got nice meaty updates on. He added a curveball and threw about 60 innings during the shutdown according to the Athletic, is a darkhorse to debut in 2021. Had 2020 happened like normal, he might have topped this list (since Howard wouldn't get to 16). The changeup is probably being understated, he got outs with that pitch in college too and there's no reason to think it got worse. His $2 million dollar signing bonus is the highest a pitching prospect received under this FO + he's the highest drafted

 

5: Quintero

 

I will continue to believe that pound for pound his $2.9 bonus as a catcher is more impressive than Hernandez's $3.0 at SS. There is high confidence in his bat with Matt Dorey describing the swing as "sweet" and MLB.com calling him one of the best offensive catchers on the international market in recent years. I suspect he would have both debuted in the AZL since he was around for Fall instructs and posted the best age 17 season in the AZL the Cubs have gotten since Paredes, except from a much higher rated prospect. I'm not too worried about sticking at catcher, developing catchers almost from the ground up is a real strength of the org

 

6: Preciado

 

Fun fact: He is only 7 months older than Cristian Hernandez as he enters his 2nd full years with an org. He's been through two fall instructs, stateside for both, before turning 18 this May. BA also has him at 6'5" 185, which is the kind of frame I initially hoped Hernandez was moving towards as signing got closer. Wherever he ends up, and I think 1B/OF of those listed above, the bat has the potential to play. He's a true switch hitter with power from both sides. BA seemed confident about contact skills but mentions he is still learning to control the zone. He's extremely young, has a huge gap in experience compared to similar aged prospects, and could be in the upper minors+ by the time he's 20-21

 

7: K. Thompson

 

95, 97, whatever it is increased velocity indicates a healthy arm, and nobody else in the system throws more strikes. He's another SP prospect now featuring 5 maybe more (3 fastballs, changeup, curve) pitches. Whereas Marquez is more obviously set up, Thompson is maybe more ready (436 excellent innings between NCAA and MiLs, entering his age 25), and may thrive throwing strikes in front of a high scoring offense if it plays out that way. He's been impressing since returning from TJ, stood out both in the AFL and then the alternate site last year, and obviously he's mostly impressed this ST

 

8: Carraway

 

Secretly one of the most explosive athletes in the system, college pitching coach mentioned a 40" vertical, and only committed full time to pitching in college

 

9: Roederer CF

 

Similar to Santana, his 2019 in the MWL is underrated for the combination of defense and offense at a solid age. LHP feasted and he's too dependent on pulling the ball on offense, but does much right than wrong in the end as a CF prospect with some power, speed, defense, and a good approach.

 

10: Santana

 

His .409 OBP in the AZL at 18 put Santana among the most productive hitters in a loaded league, also posted a .405 OBP with more walks than Ks in the DSL at 17. Pretty much everything he's done suggests a very high aptitude player. There's a real shot he can stick at SS, Pipeline describes him as rangy and twitchy at the position, and it might not be crazy to see him playing SS/2B/3B/CF as he fills out. An optimistic ML comparison may be Chris Taylor with the Dodgers, who posted a .401 OBP in the MiLs while playing SS. In this system, I think he's similar in tools to Christopher Morel but with betterplate discipline, similarly sneaky pop, and more potential defensive value starting out as a SS

 

11: Hernandez

 

So even with a regular 2020, we'd have less info on Hernandez than any of these guys and he'd have less game experience pro or amateur than maybe anyone else on this list. What is available: he tops out as BA's #3 IFA for 2020(-2021), was 6th on MLB.com's, similar for FGs, the bonus is tied for 3rd among SSs in the class, FGs lists the dims at 6'1" 170 and he's more commonly listed at 6'2" 175, and most recently his rankings in the system usually among the top 5 prospects with MLB.com putting him above Howard. The bonus isn't really competitive with what the best SS prospects have gotten recently (mid-high 3s), the dims are more above average than wow, and I don't believe he's a future 60 runner. Mix it all together and I think he's more Carter Kieboom coming out of HS (pick 28) than Machado or ARod for now

 

12: Amaya

 

Hot take: I think a 21 YO Amaya in the Southern League would have hit more like he did in the NWL. They're kind of similarly tough run environments, throw in that he's catching, extremely young, not supremely tooled up, etc. Still, he's already a likely MLer, a player development win (a likely MLer as a C who hasn't seen the upper minors yet!), and will work for a long time in the sport thanks to his wide skillset at the position and extremely high makeup

 

13: McAvene RHP - Dominant debut showing some SP tools

14: Gallardo RHSP - Pound for pound, he was the best age 17 pitcher throwing stateside innings in 2019

15: Weber IF - SS and MIF defense with a LH bat is a good combo. Spent multiple STs with the ML club

16: R. Thompson RHP - Throws hard with multiple offspeeds, changeup might be one of the better pitches in the system

17: Strumpf 2B - TINSTAA2BP, saw him get played by a routine GB at 3B this ST, maybe a RH Todd Walker?

18: Abbott RHP - Got hurt for the first time last year, looked rusty in ST I thought

19: Ademan IF - This assumes he gets a starting MIF job at the AA level, in which case he took a long route but AA at 22 is solid. If not then Rivas

20: E. Roberts RHRP - Excellent and interesting 2019, improved arm strength in 2020, like Ademan this is assuming he is ticketed for AA

21: K. Moreno RHSP - Maybe the best combo of frame and athleticism of any HS/teenaged SP they've signed, outstanding 6'3" frame

22: M. Rodriguez RHP - Extreme effort in delivery and 2020 injury make him unlikely to be an impact guy in 2021, but stuff might make it happen

23: C. Morel 3B/2B - Glove and slug, could be a pixie dust callup but lack of BBs and HRs make him a longshot to actually start for Cubs long term

24: Franklin RHP - Need to see him throw innings and feature a breaking ball

25: Kachmar RHP - Underrated 2019, from the same program (Lipscomb) as the new MiL pitching coordinator, converted to relief in pros

26: Espinoza RHP - Was arguably the best 18 YO SP in the AZL during 2019, excelled in the Mexican winter league during 2020

27: Hearn C - LHH and in a good org to be a very young catcher probably, top HS catcher of his year

29: Caissie - Impressive the Padres added him to their 60 during 2020

30: R. Morel 2B - More like Strumpf than his brother

I thought I remembered you liking Mena.

[JeffH]

You're missing a #28.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA updated their top 30s: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1004/chicago-cubs/organizational/?year=2021&type=P

 

1. Brailyn Márquez

2. Brennen Davis

3. Cristian Hernández

4. Miguel Amaya

5. Ed Howard

6. Adbert Alzolay

7. Kohl Franklin

8. Ryan Jensen

9. Christopher Morel

10. Chase Strumpf

11. Reggie Preciado

12. Riley Thompson

13. Corey Abbott

14. Burl Carraway

15. Cole Roederer

16. Ismael Mena

17. Yeison Santana

18. Luis Verdugo

19. Chris Clarke

20. Michael McAvene

21. Kevin Made

22. Justin Steele

23. Alfonso Rivas

24. Jordan Nwogu

25. Owen Caissie

26. Yohendrick Piñango

27. Tyson Miller

28. Keegan Thompson

29. Moises Ballesteros

30. Jack Patterson

[CubsWin]

Granted he came in at 29, but it was interesting to see Ballesteros rank ahead of Quintero and Hearn. On the one hand, that's not a great sign for the other two prospects, both of whom have already spent a year or two in the organization (though in Quintero's case he's really just had one instructs that scouts could hear about). Ballesteros hasn't even worked with the Cubs yet.

 

Now this is a BA ranking, so it probably relied heavily on Badler's IFA reports. But, they would've also mostly relied on Badler's notes on Quintero as well, given how little info there is on him since his signing. So, it's noteworthy that the folks at BA ranked Ballesteros ahead of Quintero.

 

That said, this Cubs system is deep, especially with teenage talent, so when you're getting past the top 20 or so, it's pretty meaningless who gets mentioned the rest of the way as it changes pretty wildly depending on who is doing the talking.

 

In any case, the Cubs have a strong list of young catching prospects that we will hopefully learn a lot more about this season. After Amaya, Quintero, Hearn and Ballesteros (in whatever order you prefer) lead the way. All 3 are described as bat first catchers who have some above average defensive attributes but need a lot of development behind the plate. And then there's Brayan Altuve who signed for $1 million the same year Quintero signed (2019). Keep an eye out for Pablo Aliendo as well. From what I've been able to glean, he's more defensively gifted with a chance to develop a good bat.

 

That's 5 guys after Amaya, the oldest of which is Hearn (20) and the youngest of which is Ballesteros (17).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[JeffH]

Just for the sake of documentation, Valdez bumped Brendon Little from the list.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Adbert Alzolay graduated from prospect eligibility.

[Bertz]

12:02

Philip: Target date for the Padres list?

12:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Nationals early next week, then I start with the Northwest Valley Teams (SD, KC, TEX, SEA), which are the clubs I’ve been sitting on during the co-op and early minor league ST here in AZ. I’d guess the Mariners or Padres are first out of the gate since I expect there will be less movement there

 

From Longenhagen's chat this morning. That means the Cubs are going to be one of the last 3-4 he does. Normally that'd be annoying, but given the circumstances it'll mean he'll have had a chance to see nearly a month of minor league spring training since he's personally down in AZ right now. Fresh looks at all of our guys that literally no other writer will have.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

With a few guys graduating from their top 100, BA now has 3 Cubs in the top 100 and Miguel Amaya isn’t one of them:

 

47. Brailyn Márquez

65. Brennen Davis

100. Cristian Hernández

[JeffH]

He'll never get a chance to start, but, when I'm feeling especially optimistic and hopeful, I like to dream on Brendon Little as the next Rich Hill.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

FanGraphs finally has their top 49 Cubs prospects list out: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-49-prospects-chicago-cubs/

 

System Overview

 

Recent trades and international signings have helped build perhaps the most exciting collection of middle infield talent in the minors. Lots of those players need to get stronger and develop more effective swings, both of which the Cubs have shown an ability to develop. This is a very deep and exciting system that gives the big club ammunition to buy at the deadline without compromising the long-term depth on the farm.

 

It’s exciting and encouraging that the Cubs have finally begun to coax more velocity out of their minor league pitchers, though it’s frustrating that their big league core of hitters from the World Series club has mostly moved on or is about to right as the pitcher dev light switched on here. Coinciding with the velo increases across this system have been injuries, the specifics of which were harder for me and my sources to ascertain than usual.

 

Clerical and administrative issues have become common with the Cubs, mostly in the form of minor annoyances that interact with the minutiae of my job. For instance, this club is pretty bad at updating their players’ heights and weights online; Eury Ramos doesn’t weigh 159 pounds anymore. But May’s hotel snafu was more severe. It likely began as one person’s scheduling goof, a mistake that could have been solved with a nicer-than-usual hotel, a treat for the players on par with a snow day or lax substitute teacher. Instead the situation was mishandled and came to exemplify the issues surrounding minor leaguers’ wages and living conditions. In addition to it just being the right thing to do, putting the players up somewhere more expensive would have been worth it to avoid the PR hit.

 

1. Brennen Davis

2. Reginald Preciado

3. Cristian Hernández

4. Ed Howard

5. Adbert Alzolay - actually has lost his prospect eligibility

6. Brailyn Márquez

7. Christopher Morel

8. Miguel Amaya

9. Cole Roederer

10. Owen Caissie

[Bertz]

 

Still reading the specific blurbs, but I think given all the injuries and slow starts this season this is actually pretty positive. 45+'s are guys who are top 100 types but with one big question mark (usually health), so having 5 of those helps balance out only having two top 100 types.

[Outshined_One]

Preciado and Caissie in the Top 10, with Mena and Santana in the Top 15, is at least some comfort from the Darvish trade. I know they all were basically lottery tickets when the trade was made, and I know the Cubs aren't exactly showcasing a Top 5 system right now, but it's a better outcome than I initially expected.

[Hrubes20]

That read was worth it, if only for all the injury updates. Only an oblique for Franklin, thankfully. Not as good of updates for others though, even if no surgery at this time.

[muntjack]

On Brennan Davis: "often citing the odd hours he kept taking care of a goat"

 

New favorite organizational player.

 

Goat-herders perhaps the new market inefficiency.

[Bertz]

Roberts is an athletic little righty with some of the spinniest stuff in pro baseball. His primary fastball is a low-90s cutter that spins at a whopping 2900 rpm, while his curveball (plus) spins at 3400 rpm, the highest average spin rate I’ve ever recorded on a pitch. Roberts has pitched well for the past two minor league seasons and is very likely to be an up/down reliever who debuts in 2022.

 

[Bertz]

FG is doing farm system rankings this week so this sort of fuzzy math is likely unnecessary, but this points towards the system being considered roughly above average by their estimation.

 

Broadly, the FV grades break out like this:

 

50 or higher - Top 100 caliber

45 - Typical Org Top 10 caliber

40 - Typical Org Top 30 caliber

35 - A prospect, but usually low ceiling or very far away

 

The Cubs are light at the top end. Davis is our top guy at #38, and Preciado is the lowest ranked 50 FV guy. You'd expect an average team to have someone a little higher than Davis and then another guy between Davis and Preciado. However, having so many 45+'s (basically in between the two tiers), and having more than thirty guys at the 40 FV tier or higher are good signs. I don't know how it weighs against the lack of top end talent, but I'd guess they roughly balance out and the farm will be somewhere in the 13-17 range.

 

You could also get ahead of yourself with the deadline. I'd imagine we net something like:

 

- Two or three 50's or better

- Three to five 45's

- Another five-ish 40's

 

That should be enough to bump us comfortably into the top 10, likely closer to #5 than #10.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Updated FG midseason rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

 

Cubs come in at 18.

 

Teams ranked low who I think have players destined for huge growth includes the Cubs, Angels and Brewers because of the young players they have at Low-A and on the complex right now.

[Bertz]

 

Interesting comments on Caissie especially

[Bertz]