2020 Offseason Thread

[NOLA]

The Angels could probably use both. I'd like to think we could get some mlb ready pieces in return but I'm ready to be underwhelmed again. Given the timing and fairly immediate nature of the rumors for KB and Willson, it is starting to feel to me like they're going to the same team.

Why does the return need to have MLB ready pieces? If they’re both being traded, the plan must be to not compete until 2023 or later.

[Cubswin11]

The Angels could probably use both. I'd like to think we could get some mlb ready pieces in return but I'm ready to be underwhelmed again. Given the timing and fairly immediate nature of the rumors for KB and Willson, it is starting to feel to me like they're going to the same team.

Why does the return need to have MLB ready pieces? If they’re both being traded, the plan must be to not compete until 2023 or later.

Not that I want another ~30 year old coming back but I do feel like we would want a little more MLB certainty coming back (even if it’s just well thought of prospects 1-2 years away) vs just A ball prospect lotto tickets like the Darvish deal. Bryant especially, since you have the comp pick in the bag.

[Tim]

Just burn it all down so that I can just check the minors each night and don't have to spend actual time watching baseball.

[Tim]

 

Cubs Twitter is acting as if we should take this seriously :dontknow:

I'm guessing we shouldn't have taken it that seriously.

[Brian]

dom probably has a low level contact, he tweeted about good news coming just before the Boog announcement. he's definitely well above our old friend Charles the cat on the believability scale.

 

i'm sure something was cooking this weekend, maybe even close.

[17 Seconds]

i know this has nothing to do with his credibility as a news source, but i would like to point out that this dom guy is a ricketts bootlicker

[Cubswin11]

$18 mil AAV for a soon to be 33 year old closer doesn’t seem like the wisest use of funds

 

[Bertz]

 

I'm not 100%, but I think this means he'll cost $0 against the luxury tax in year 4. Though the luxury tax mattering for the White Sox is pretty unlikely.

[Cubswin11]

 

I'm not 100%, but I think this means he'll cost $0 against the luxury tax in year 4. Though the luxury tax mattering for the White Sox is pretty unlikely.

Yeah LT is calculated by full guaranteed dollars over full guaranteed years. So he’s a $18 mil hit a year guy for 3 years then “free” in year 4. Looks like they’re just valuing short term actual cash outlay over everything. That option/buyout doesn’t make any sense otherwise.

[Tim]

 

I'm not 100%, but I think this means he'll cost $0 against the luxury tax in year 4. Though the luxury tax mattering for the White Sox is pretty unlikely.

Yeah LT is calculated by full guaranteed dollars over full guaranteed years. So he’s a $18 mil hit a year guy for 3 years then “free” in year 4. Looks like they’re just valuing short term actual cash outlay over everything. That option/buyout doesn’t make any sense otherwise.

huh...can multiple option years be done this way? If so, then bye-bye luxury tax. Just structure all years past year 1 in a contract this way.

[Cubswin11]

 

I'm not 100%, but I think this means he'll cost $0 against the luxury tax in year 4. Though the luxury tax mattering for the White Sox is pretty unlikely.

Yeah LT is calculated by full guaranteed dollars over full guaranteed years. So he’s a $18 mil hit a year guy for 3 years then “free” in year 4. Looks like they’re just valuing short term actual cash outlay over everything. That option/buyout doesn’t make any sense otherwise.

huh...can multiple option years be done this way? If so, then bye-bye luxury tax. Just structure all years past year 1 in a contract this way.

No idea if that’s allowed but then you’d have teams going way over for a year and with the different levels and repeater stuff I don’t think that’s a work around. Since any remotely significant FA add would be a $50-100+ mil LT hit their first year. I don’t think it’s all that much easier to stay under the LT modeling this way. Between Arb/player control yearly raises then having to sign some sort of FA under this model (if it’s even allowed, maybe there’s some rules with structuring that way). We are also talking only a small amount of teams this model would help since most teams don’t even run up to the LT. Like even for the Cubs the last few years (2017-2020) we probably run up to and past the LT using the current way or this “work around way.”

 

I think you get a slight present value break on the LT if part of the guaranteed money is spread out over years past the life of the actual contract.

 

Edit: Feinsand seems to back up the LT being calculated this way

 

[Bertz]

 

I think this is going to be hard to use moving forward though. First, the commissioner will ax it if he thinks that's the sole reason for the structure. Second, it's rare you know that you're going to be well under the tax today while planning to be above it 3-4 years from now.

[Bertz]

 

We've seen more and more teams add guys "a year early," so this wouldn't be that crazy.

 

I also *really* want Trevor Rogers. Have Hottovy teach him the spike curve he's been teaching everyone and he's gonna absolutely shove.

[Tryptamine]

 

We've seen more and more teams add guys "a year early," so this wouldn't be that crazy.

 

I also *really* want Trevor Rogers. Have Hottovy teach him the spike curve he's been teaching everyone and he's gonna absolutely shove.

 

Braxton Garrett+ Edward Cabrera would be pretty much best case scenario for me. I don't think Max Meyer would be on the table.

[Bertz]

 

We've seen more and more teams add guys "a year early," so this wouldn't be that crazy.

 

I also *really* want Trevor Rogers. Have Hottovy teach him the spike curve he's been teaching everyone and he's gonna absolutely shove.

 

Braxton Garrett+ Edward Cabrera would be pretty much best case scenario for me. I don't think Max Meyer would be on the table.

 

Playing around with the baseball trade simulator, some ideas of what we could expect:

 

Garrett + Cabrera plus some filler

Trevor Rogers + Jesus Sanchez plus some filler

Max Meyer or JJ Bleday pretty much straight up

Monte Harrison + Lewin Diaz + Jon Berti

 

And these are all based on current projections. It's not entirely unreasonable to bump Willson up ~5 runs a year for defense. I think qualitatively people generally think his framing is "fixed." If you're pricing him as if he's not a negative on defense, stuff like Meyer + Harrison or Bleday + Rogers probably isn't unreasonable.

 

Also, anecdotally, new GMs are typically more apt to view their prospects as the market does rather than through rose colored glasses, so working with Kim Ng *should* be easier. I'm really talking myself into the Marlins as a trade partner.

[Bertz]

 

They were connected to Bryant over the summer...

[Cubswin11]

He’s probably toast but worth doing the due diligence

 

[Cubswin11]

[Named After Maddux]

 

Willson loves to stoke the fires. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him moved though. Those Jason Castro rumors probably were legitimate. At this point I think Jed is cashing in the chips he wanted to in previous seasons.

 

The Blue Jays, Angels, Marlins, and Mets are all somewhat interesting trade partners.

[Bertz]

 

I really hope we end up with one of him, Paxton, or Richards.

[Bertz]

[Derwood]

 

This would be exciting news 5 years ago

[Bertz]

I'm gonna guess it's not great news that we're 3 hours past the arb deadline and have not heard anything about any Cubs players

[NOLA]

[Post Count Padder]

Angels signed Kurt Suzuki. I know he's not really a full time starter anymore but that seems to pour cold water on the Contreras to Angels trade rumors. Maybe Marlins now or Phillies if they don't bring back Realmuto. I'd be fine keeping him too.