2020 Offseason Thread

[Cubswin11]

You can play with the numbers all you want, but PTR isn't going to add $37 million to the payroll without getting rid of that much or more.

 

Technically this has already happened. Lester, Chatwood, Quintana, Chafin, Martinez, Almora, Tepera, Cotton, Megill, Sadler, Olson, Kipnis, Maybin, Hamilton, Descalso, Souza, Sadler, Brach, Dermody...all of their 2020 salaries are gone. The Cubs' current 2021 luxury tax payroll, and it's probably not unsafe to say The Budget will be defined largely by the 2021 luxury tax, is anywhere from just under ~$40 million to almost $70 million dollars lower than it was in 2020

You understand everyone is saying that the money that’s fallen off, that you described, brings us to basically the ceiling of where we see payroll this year outside of the fringe adds, right? Most here aren’t operating under the assumption that is money that can be reused, it’s simply gotten us to where we probably end up for the year +/-.

 

Where do you think payroll ends up this year? You think ~$200 is in play but short of the LT?

[Cubswin11]

You understand everyone is saying that with the money that’s fallen off that you described brings us to basically the ceiling of where we see payroll this year outside of the fringe adds, right? Most here aren’t operating under the assumption that is money that can be reused, it’s simply gotten us to where we probably end up for the year +/-.

 

Where do you think payroll ends up this year? You think ~$200 is in play but short of the LT?

 

If we're actually counting the pennies, the offseason I presented does not bring the payroll to even 2020 levels, sets up a dramatic drop post-2021 when the farm system can reasonably enough be expected to start putting out multiple starters over a 2-3 year window, and pretty much guarantees the Cubs get a draft pick with a corresponding boost in amateur budget

It’s not about 2020 levels, it’s bringing it to a range where nobody thinks we are willing to go. Again, what’s the payroll range you think they can go this year? Because everyone seems to think it’s the ~$175 mil range.

[Cubswin11]

It’s not about 2020 levels, it’s bringing it to a range where nobody thinks we are willing to go. Again, what’s the payroll range you think they can go this year? Because everyone seems to think it’s the ~$175 mil range.

 

Question: Does the team I wrote out actually pass $175? Doesn't seem so

 

Yes it does, quite easily. We are at ~$160 real payroll and ~$170 LT payroll right now with arb estimates (I think some are light). Your proposal is sending ~$15 mil out and bringing in ~$50mil with Lindor and the trade/FA guys (netting ~$35 mil brought in and pushing a ~$190/200 real and LT payroll). Lindor (~25) Margot (3), Schwarbs and Lester (probably 4-8 each, so call it ~$10 mil combined) alone will be ~$40 mil.

[Cubswin11]

Yes it does, quite easily. We are at ~$160 real payroll and ~$170 LT payroll right now with arb estimates (I think some are light). Your proposal is sending ~$15 mil out and bringing in ~$50mil with Lindor and the trade/FA guys (netting ~$30 mil brought in and pushing a $190/200 real and LT payroll). Lindor (~25) Margot (3), Schwarbs and Lester (at least 5 each) alone will be ~$40 mil mil.

 

- Lindor's salary keeps climbing in this thread but FTR MLBTR's estimates have him at max $21.5 and two estimates under $20 million

 

- Sportsrac has the active payroll right now at $136,862,500 and LT payroll @ $165,060,833 and $44,939,167 below the $210 threshold

 

- Drop $15 and you're at basically $60 million in cap space and a little above $120 million in hard commits

 

- Add even the high estimates on my offseason and they're $9-10 million below the cap and below $175

No, it’s ~$160 of real money currently. Look at the chart in the link. Have to add in a 40-man estimate (which isn’t a lot), player benefits and all teams leave a buffer. The spotrac link even breaks it down that way now that I look.

 

https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2020/11/9/21556406/cubs-2021-payroll-luxury-tax-preliminary-estimate

[Backtobanks]

I would still like to see a deal with the Pirates.

 

Bote + Mills for Murgrove + Frasier.

 

The Pirates save some money and the Cubs get a dependable 2B and SP.

[Bertz]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30568689/what-jeff-passan-hearing-new-homes-george-springer-nolan-arenado

 

The aggressiveness of the Blue Jays, and to a lesser extent the Mets, combined with the market's silence could leave an impression that they're the only two teams willing to dish out big money this winter. That's not the case. Teams, sources said, are simply being strategic with their approaches, cognizant that the uncertainty of the season allows them such a delay. Players' frustration with that approach is perfectly understandable and adds to the undercurrent of animus between the sides, even with a number of deals -- James McCann, Mike Minor, Carlos Santana, Robbie Ray, Adam Eaton and Anthony DeSclafani -- seen as player-friendly.

 

The Nationals' interest in Realmuto follows their template of building around stars. Minnesota, sources said, is expected to be active. Boston might not be in on the big names, but the Red Sox are players in the next tier. The Braves probably have one more move to make. The Dodgers need a third baseman -- and, if Bauer's market collapses, might be in on a short-term deal. The Astros might be the next team to sign a player; they were aggressive in the past week across various parts of the market, including relief pitchers, according to sources.

 

The two mysteries: the Los Angeles Angels and the Philadelphia Phillies. So far, the Angels have value-shopped. They're in the starting-pitcher market. But Bauer? The last time they spent big on a pitcher was in 2012 on C.J. Wilson's five-year, $77.5 million deal. Over that time, he produced 5.7 wins above replacement. Since hiring Dave Dombrowski as president of baseball operations, the Phillies have suggested they do not have significant money to spend, according to sources -- unless they re-sign Realmuto. Should he go elsewhere, the money earmarked for him might not wind up in the pockets of other free agents.

 

Passan with a list of teams you should probably expect some spending from this offseason

[fromthestretch]

I would still like to see a deal with the Pirates.

 

Bote + Mills for Murgrove + Frasier.

 

The Pirates save some money and the Cubs get a dependable 2B and SP.

 

I don't see how Frazier is an upgrade over Bote, especially when Bote is locked in at $3 mil per season for awhile and Frazier could exceed that in arbitration in 2021. Yeah, Musgrove could be an improvement over Mills, especially if his strikeout rate wasn't some 2020 short-season fluke. But I'm not sure that's the deal the Cubs should be making if they're pinching pennies.

[Cubswin11]

I would still like to see a deal with the Pirates.

 

Bote + Mills for Murgrove + Frasier.

 

The Pirates save some money and the Cubs get a dependable 2B and SP.

 

I don't see how Frazier is an upgrade over Bote, especially when Bote is locked in at $3 mil per season for awhile and Frazier could exceed that in arbitration in 2021.

He’s not necessarily an upgrade in overall value in terms of adding more WAR and Bote is certainly on a better contract. But Frazier fits the roster better and helps supplements the shortfalls with the contact, defense and versatility while Bote adds to the weakness of the lack of contact/Ks/etc and is more redundant when trying to reshape things and make the offense more diverse. Imo.

[fromthestretch]

I don't see how Frazier is an upgrade over Bote, especially when Bote is locked in at $3 mil per season for awhile and Frazier could exceed that in arbitration in 2021. Yeah, Musgrove could be an improvement over Mills, especially if his strikeout rate wasn't some 2020 short-season fluke. But I'm not sure that's the deal the Cubs should be making if they're pinching pennies.

 

Frazier would be a defensive upgrade over Bote, is more versatile defensively too, has been a productive starter at 2B, makes a ton of contact...He's a solid fit for this roster, but the Pirates wouldn't have any interest in either Bote or Mills

 

More versatile, yes...since he can play outfield well. I don't see how he's that much of an upgrade defensively at second and especially at third. I'll give you the contact hitting, but Bote walks more and outside of batting average and the afore-mentioned contact hitting doesn't appear to be any worse than Frazier in any other offensive category.

 

I'm not trying to advocate for keeping Bote if the right trade comes along, but I don't see this as the right trade. Frazier is going to be more expensive most likely as soon as 2021 and is under control for fewer seasons.

[Cubswin11]

I think moving Bote for something does make a lot of sense. His spot on the roster seems like a clear spot to swap out for that contact/versatile guy. Sending Bote out for something (honestly don’t know what his value is but maybe a Montgomery type SP/swing man?) and then signing Hanser Alberto makes a lot of sense to me. He can play IF/OF (metrics are a bit mixed but doesn’t seem incompetent anywhere), does the contact thing and hits lefties well (another offense issue) he does a lot of Adam Frazier type things.

 

Gonna keep banging the trade out Bote and bring in Alberto/Grossman/Pillar trio drum as good and likely cheap way to help diversify the offense. It seems like a very clear, easy and cheap path to make decently significant offensive profile changes without making any drastic trades.

[Cubswin11]

I'm pro trading Bote in a good trade, but have no interest in Alberto. Not a good defender anywhere and that combo of .300 OBP and .099 IsoSLG really doesn't fit with this org. By comparison Adam Frazier has a .338 career OBP (Bote's is .336) and .140 IsoSLG plus plays good defense at a position of need and hits LH in an IF mix that's all RH outside of Rizzo the 1B

I’m not saying go crazy for Alberto, I suspect he’ll be cheap and want him on a reasonable 1-3 year deal. He has a .322 OBP over his last ~800 PAs, .114 Iso and a ~.750 OPS, along with a 86% contact rate and 146 and 151 wRC+ vs LHP last two years. While he isn’t plus on defense anywhere he isn’t that bad either, seems like you can live with him at multiple spots (can always pull him for Nico, Pillar, etc. later in games).

 

I think he’s a pretty solid fit. The big thing to change the offense is the contact, fewer Ks and LHP hitting, imo. Alberto brings that and can move around. Bringing in a guy like that probably means giving up a little something elsewhere (like OBP/ISO) but that’s fine with me because we have a lot of that elsewhere.

[Cubswin11]

I’m not saying go crazy for Alberto, I suspect he’ll be cheap and want him on a reasonable 1-3 year deal. He has a .322 OBP over his last ~800 PAs, .114 Iso and a ~.750 OPS, along with a 86% contact rate and 146 and 151 wRC+ vs LHP last two years. While he isn’t plus on defense anywhere he isn’t that bad either, seems like you can live with him at multiple spots (can always pull him for Nico, Pillar, etc. later in games).

 

I think he’s a pretty solid fit. The big thing to change the offense is the contact, fewer Ks and LHP hitting, imo. Alberto brings that and can move around. Bringing in a guy like that probably means giving up a little something elsewhere (like OBP/ISO) but that’s fine with me because we have a lot of that elsewhere.

 

I guess I could see a fit as like the backup backup infielder, the bat guy to someone's glove guy off the bench, but the skillset is so nichey (essentially a weak defensive 2B that can only hit LHP) it's tough to really see a great fit without creating a new need the same as the old need (a real starting 2B and/or someone not a RHH who compliments his skillset as well as the rest of the non-Rizzo infield off the bench and ideally can take most of the playing time)

Right, we’re talking about a backup/platoon start guy/PH. They aren’t going to do everything well and have flaws. But the things he does well are the things the offense struggles with a lot. I just like the fit. This type of add isn’t going to check every box. You could still add Kipnis (or some similar vet) back as a LHH if option too. We literally are one of the worst contact teams in MLB, that needs to change and I don’t think we are going to be able to add star level dudes like DJ who have a whole package. Whoever we add to help with contact is going to have shortfalls elsewhere (be it defense, power, OBP, etc). But that’s okay! The makeup of the majority of the rest of the offense does those things.

[Backtobanks]

The whole point of the Frasier/Musgrove trade was to get Musgrove, but seeing that the Pirates want to dump salary I added Frasier. If the Pirates want to switch names away from Bote/Mills toward prospects, that would be fine. Both Frasier and Musgrove would be great additions to filling 2 of the Cubs biggest holes at a reasonable price. Of course, "reasonable price" is relative to everything we have been discussing.

[Cubswin11]

Right, we’re talking about a backup/platoon start guy/PH. They aren’t going to do everything well and have flaws. But the things he does well are the things the offense struggles with a lot. I just like the fit. This type of add isn’t going to check every box. You could still add Kipnis (or some similar vet) back as a LHH if option too. We literally are one of the worst contact teams in MLB, that needs to change and I don’t think we are going to be able to add star level dudes like DJ who have a whole package. Whoever we add to help with contact is going to have shortfalls elsewhere (be it defense, power, OBP, etc). But that’s okay! The makeup of the majority of the rest of the offense does those things.

 

Some of the obstacles you'd run into trying to sign Hanser Alberto for a backup/platoon/PH job:

 

- Signing starter workload players in their 20s to backup/platoon/PH roles isn't something to take lightly. This is a guy who has put up essentially 3 fWAR and 4 rWAR between 2019-2020, hit FA at 28, and given the offensive bar at 2B (91 wRC+ in 2020, 94 since 2015) could proooooobably find someone willing to give him more playing time than the RHH side of a platoon

 

- The light side of a platoon isn't fixing this team's contact issues on a day in and day out basis

 

Until players start coming off the board, the pool of players available or possibly available via trade is so much larger and more diverse than the pool of players available in FA that locking yourself into FAs at this stage is jumping the gun

I think he’d be used more than just a straight platoon, he’d be given starts vs RHP and get PH opportunities. Does he overall solve the contact issues, no, and there isn’t one realistic move or player out there that does that. But he helps get you there in the aggregate and on the margins, like him starting vs LHP instead of Bote, and if you keep adding another guy or two like Grossman and Pillar beyond Alberto. These are smoothing out the edges moves and players and making sure the bench/platoon/backups aren’t bringing redundant skill sets that the main starters do.

[CubinNY]

[Cubswin11]

Is that really that surprising since the farm system produced starters at like every other spot and we just needed more depth/platoon guys? We had Schwarbs/Happ/Almora/Jorge as internal OF options, Bryant, Javy, Russell, Rizzo, Bote, LaStella, Nico as IF options and Willy/Vic at catcher. Plus Zobrist was around too over that time.

[Bertz]

With Ervin onboard, if we're staying cheap this offseason I'd love to add Robbie Grossman and Adam Duvall to the outfield. Both guys have their problems, but would complement the current group (and each other)well. And they'd probably cost combined about as much as JBJ for this year.

 

It probably requires the DH to keep everyone happy as far as playing time. I also don't love not having a high end defensive CF, but at the same time we'd have five guys who can at least fake CF? So defensively it'd be plus even if it's not in the traditional "strong up the middle" way.

[Cubswin11]

With Ervin onboard, if we're staying cheap this offseason I'd love to add Robbie Grossman and Adam Duvall to the outfield. Both guys have their problems, but would complement the current group (and each other)well. And they'd probably cost combined about as much as JBJ for this year.

 

It probably requires the DH to keep everyone happy as far as playing time. I also don't love not having a high end defensive CF, but at the same time we'd have five guys who can at least fake CF? So defensively it'd be plus even if it's not in the traditional "strong up the middle" way.

Yeah I’d really like to add Grossman. Grossman, Reddick or Rosario if we aren’t completely poor plus Pillar would be ideal play it cheap offseason for the OF but still build out depth/supplement the core’s weakness.

[SaorsaDaonnan]

TomtheBombadil, would it be fair to say you’re more interested in the question “how would an ideally rational ownership-management partnership with league average financial health and an a priori commitment to market-appropriate budgets approach this Cubs offseason?” than the question “if you were Jed and faced the problems Jed actually faces, what would you do”?

 

Maybe the reason you look so Panglossian to the rest of us is that you’d just rather spend your free time answering the first question, whereas the rest of us are mostly focusing on the second?

[Cubswin11]

Another possible cheap LHH OF option to pair with Ervin, Brett Gardner. He should not cost much turning 38 during the year, question is would he be interested in playing anywhere other than New York and maybe you do have to pay him more to convince him to come. But if he’s willing to come on a cheap 1 year deal he’s a terrific fit. The team could use some red ass, grittiness. He makes a lot of contact (did drop below 80% for the first time last year but shortened year who knows) he still crushed RHP .229/.370/.430 with a 124 wRC+ and he’s at about 115 wRC+ vs RHP for his career. Add him for a LF platoon with Ervin and Pillar for a platoon option for Happ/Heyward and late inning CF defense and we got some grit cooking.

[jersey cubs fan]

TomtheBombadil, would it be fair to say you’re more interested in the question “how would an ideally rational ownership-management partnership with league average financial health and an a priori commitment to market-appropriate budgets approach this Cubs offseason?” than the question “if you were Jed and faced the problems Jed actually faces, what would you do”?

 

Maybe the reason you look so Panglossian to the rest of us is that you’d just rather spend your free time answering the first question, whereas the rest of us are mostly focusing on the second?

God I wish I knew what half of that meant, it sounds delicious.

[SaorsaDaonnan]

God I wish I knew what half of that meant, it sounds delicious.

 

Whereas many of us are pretending to be Jed, I thought maybe he was pretending to be Tom and Jed.

 

Since many people think the team has deep enough pockets to do fine while freely spending, or that an owner should deliberately lose a bit of money as a civic duty to boost the team, that would potentially explain his other positions. But he said no, he is pretending to be Jed only, and just disagrees with the rest of us on the facts of what Jed’s marching orders are.

 

Or, as a slight wrinkle to that, on what they will be...sometimes he sounds to me like he thinks that since the Cubs might not have set a specific budget yet, the reports of big cuts might all be a mirage.

[Post Count Padder]

In addition to Joe Biagini and Trevor Kelley, we also brought back Matt Dermody

 

The Cubs have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander Matt Dermody, MLBTR has learned. The 30-year-old southpaw will be invited to Major League Spring Training to compete for a bullpen job.

[Backtobanks]

In addition to Joe Biagini and Trevor Kelley, we also brought back Matt Dermody

 

The Cubs have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander Matt Dermody, MLBTR has learned. The 30-year-old southpaw will be invited to Major League Spring Training to compete for a bullpen job.

 

Hopefully the vaccine is available to players soon because the Cubs certainly won't be able to social distance at spring training with all of these signings.

[Cubswin11]