2020 Offseason Thread

[Backtobanks]

I still don't think the Cubs will start over. Trading KB, Schwarber, and Contreras makes the team the epitome of mediocrity, but that might be enough in the NL Central. It wouldn't surprise me if the NL Central winner wins 82-85 games. Of course that's assuming Baez and Rizzo return to form and Hendricks, Darvish, Heyward, and Happ have similar years as 2020.

[Bertz]

Honestly, if you are going a full re-start, then you need to place all your chips into restocking the system. As much as there's some high level intrigue now, most of it is far away with a lot of risk at hand. If you are selling, then you need to go all-in on selling, and if that's the case, your two assets that are likely to net the most impactful young talent in return would be Darvish and Hendricks. Hendricks would probably, at that contract, get a high level return. You'd arguably be selling high on Darvish, and the remaining deal (looks like 3/59) ought to be palatable enough for the Cubs to get a quality return without eating any of the money (if eating money would help increase the return, they should obviously do it).

 

Either way, if you are going to dip your toes into that pool. you need to jump in. Half-measures only extend and delay the inevitable. I don't know Cubs fans sites very well anymore, but I did see someone suggest moving Heyward. While that would be nice, it's hard to see that happen. Kimbrel ... it's hard to see a team taking him in the off-season. Mid-season, sure.

 

I don't have a problem tearing it down to the studs, but I think because of the lack of quality in our division you don't necessarily *have* to. You certainly need to make a trade or two that hurts, trading like Kimbrel and Schwarber does nothing. I think Darvish and Hendricks would each bring in Quintana-esque returns, but moving them wouldn't be my Plan A. Maybe I'm naive but I'm hoping to do more of a retool than a rebuild.

 

I've said it a couple times, but I think if you do still want to compete Bryant and Contreras is the path to go. We have high quality backups for each, while Bryant opens up funds to use in FA and Contreras brings in legitimate star power on the prospect front. I hate getting too bogged down on specific names, but something like Contreras to the Marlins for Bleday, Rogers, and another top 20 guy? A Contreras trade likely ends up really moving the needle on the farm system. Bryant's much harder to value, maybe to the Giants for Mauricio Dubon? That might require a few more names to balance it out.

 

Also, on just a pure cold numbers front, trading Javy makes some sense. If you backfilled him with Andrelton Simmons, you're not losing much if anything on defense and you're probably knocking out 100 strikeouts. That's something that will be felt at the team level. That said, I have a more visceral reaction to moving Javy than any of the other position players except for Rizzo.

[Post Count Padder]

Maybe I'm being naive but I don't think they NT Schwarbs and they hang onto KB at least for now given his stock is so low. I'm expecting them to trade Contreras for prospects and salary relief though and let Caratini take over until Amaya is ready in two years.

 

I could see them spinning Kimbrel's second half positively and getting a team to take on his contract for a nothing prospect but considering brad hand was let go, idk how realistic that is. Might just be stuck with him.

[Tryptamine]

Maybe I'm being naive but I don't think they NT Schwarbs and they hang onto KB at least for now given his stock is so low. I'm expecting them to trade Contreras for prospects and salary relief though and let Caratini take over until Amaya is ready in two years.

 

I could see them spinning Kimbrel's second half positively and getting a team to take on his contract for a nothing prospect but considering brad hand was let go, idk how realistic that is. Might just be stuck with him.

 

Yeah, we're at the point where the only way to get anything of note for Bryant or moving Kimbrel at all would require eating some money and with Ricketts crying poor, neither is likely to happen.

[Named After Maddux]

Maybe I'm being naive but I don't think they NT Schwarbs and they hang onto KB at least for now given his stock is so low. I'm expecting them to trade Contreras for prospects and salary relief though and let Caratini take over until Amaya is ready in two years.

 

I could see them spinning Kimbrel's second half positively and getting a team to take on his contract for a nothing prospect but considering brad hand was let go, idk how realistic that is. Might just be stuck with him.

 

Yeah, we're at the point where the only way to get anything of note for Bryant or moving Kimbrel at all would require eating some money and with Ricketts crying poor, neither is likely to happen.

 

I might be overly optimistic, but I'd be a bit surprised if they can't eat any of, say, Bryant's contract for a better prospect. I highly doubt they can absorb all or even half of Bryant's $18-20mil, but if a team like the Braves needs the Cubs to cover $5 mil to get his contract down to $15 mil, then I think (hope) the Cubs would take the better deal for $5 mil. Obviously all conjecture, but moving 75% of these bigger contracts is still significant savings for a team and should be palatable even to Ricketts.

[champaignchris]

I think, more likely than the Cubs just sending cash with Bryant is them taking back a bad, but cheaper contract in return. So, in the Braves’ case maybe Ender Inciarte.

[Bear Cub]

Restart? Watch this Board bitch and cry when they are 20 games out of first place.

[CoolHandLuke]

Restart? Watch this Board bitch and cry when they are 20 games out of first place.

 

I don't think you understand this board if you think people here will care about the standings during the first year of a complete teardown.

 

Or I guess maybe I don't understand the board.

[champaignchris]

Restart? Watch this Board bitch and cry when they are 20 games out of first place.

 

I don't think you understand this board if you think people here will care about the standings during the first year of a complete teardown.

 

Or I guess maybe I don't understand the board.

 

It will depend, right? Trade Hendricks and Darvish, have a top 10 system heading into the season, and no one will care what the standings are, especially if guys like Marquez debut.

 

Do a blatant salary dump without adding any significant young talent, and yeah, people are going to scream if the team is 20 games out of what looks like it’s going to be a winnable division.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I honestly though he was trying to call someone a bored bitch and spelled it wrong.

[Bertz]

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Restart? Watch this Board bitch and cry when they are 20 games out of first place.

 

I don't think you understand this board if you think people here will care about the standings during the first year of a complete teardown.

 

Or I guess maybe I don't understand the board.

 

It will depend, right? Trade Hendricks and Darvish, have a top 10 system heading into the season, and no one will care what the standings are, especially if guys like Marquez debut.

 

Do a blatant salary dump without adding any significant young talent, and yeah, people are going to scream if the team is 20 games out of what looks like it’s going to be a winnable division.

 

With Theo gone and a World Series title, if this team decides to just tank and not have a top 5-7 payroll for multiple years, I won't be bitching because I will have lost total interest.

[Tryptamine]

Victor Robles or buzz off, Nats

 

Oh and Tim Cate

 

The days of this as a possibility are long gone and likely so are the chances of landing Kieboom. At this point I think I'd be thrilled walking away with Jackson Rutledge and Seth Romero.

[Post Count Padder]

Renato Nunez a surprising non tender by the Orioles considering he isn't that expensive and as a power bat who isn't useless defensively could prob have been a trade candidate at the very least.

[SaorsaDaonnan]

I always got the impression PTR wanted to evolve the franchise according to a specific plan:

 

1. Tank and invest in infrastructure

2. Have a massive crop of prospects appear and be really young and good

3. Spend big money to complement that crop and get a title

4. Transition to a new, permanent future of mostly 85-90 win teams based on a budget comfortably below the LT threshold and an a priori commitment to never tanking again

 

IMO our moves this offseason will be determined by the extent to which Ricketts is or isn’t interested in revising the “no more tanking” approach in light of the money problems, and by the extent to which other teams’ baseball ops departments could get authorization from their owners to add salary like Darvish or Hendricks.

 

If only half of teams are closing their checkbooks and we’re the only one dumping, we may get particularly great offers on those two. If not, like others have said, our division is competitive in the sense that it should be a many-horse race, but it’s wide open in the sense that nobody is looking like a probable juggernaut.

 

Bottom line though: with neutral luck, we should still have a divisionally competitive team if we dump KB, Schwarber, and Kimbrel to fix the financial problem. If the market offers good value for Contreras, Darvish, Hendricks, we can take advantage of it if Ricketts ok’s a teardown, but if we get bad offers or Ricketts says no, we’re still ok.

 

The bad part about this offseason is that it’s about loss and decline, but the good part is that all the future scenarios involve plausibly okayish baseball in the future.

Edited November 21, 2020 by SaorsaDaonnan

[SaorsaDaonnan]

From Jed’s point of view, I would guess the schedule looks like this:

 

Now - Dec 2:

 

Make a decision on Schwarber, decide on whether you’re bringing in or promoting a front office #2, set up any interviews, have first round of talks if applicable

 

Second week of Dec:

 

Finalize any FO personnel decisions and very proactively survey market for Bryant and Kimbrel, plus Schwarber if tendered. Also listen on anyone else.

 

Winter Meetings through Jan:

 

Deal KB if a remotely acceptable deal materializes. Schwarber and Kimbrel for whatever you can get. Contreras for great prospects if you get good offers, but no pressure to move him yet if not.

 

Feb and Mar:

 

The main time for talking about Darvish or Hendricks trades, hopefully after having moved enough salary that you make the decision purely in baseball ops terms without pandemic or construction overage money problems interfering. Also the time for any extension talks and any of our probably tiny FA signings. No reason you couldn’t still talk Contreras too, unless he’s already dealt.

 

*****************

 

So obviously you make a trade whenever you get an offer you really like — the schedule is just to organize your own process and not a roadblock to addressing aggressive early offers from other teams. And yes, if you want a particular cheap innings eater FA who is likely to get snapped up quickly, sure, you act as soon as you can...

 

...but generally, the additions would wait until late, and again, you would be making any Darvish and Hendricks moves after moving the money. At that point you would also have a clearer idea of what the divisional competition is doing, and since that probably won’t be a lot, you will probably be looking at increased confidence that you can run with the pack in 2021 and hope for some good breaks. And if you do go into the season with Bote and Caratini and a lesser, cheaper outfield but otherwise basically the same team, then even if you get bad breaks and suck, in all probability Darvish and Hendricks would still be great trade chips at the deadline, so you become a popular phone call at that point instead, with the ability to hold out until the following offseason if teams won’t meet your price.

[Bertz]

 

Kiley suggests the Rays for Bryant, though TBF it's in more of a dot-connecty than rumor-y way:

 

Acquiring Kris Bryant and his roughly $20 million salary in his final arbitration season for some midlevel prospects would be an intriguing and surprisingly realistic deal. There's some buzz the Rays actually have money to spend this offseason, as they suffered the least in terms of lost game-day revenue. Factor in Charlie Morton, Mike Zunino, Chaz Roe and Oliver Drake hitting free agency and some further potential cuts like non-tendering Hunter Renfroe and there's a good bit of money off the books.

 

I'm not sure the Rays have room to re-sign Morton, sign two catchers and take on Bryant's deal, but that's at least in the realm of possibility.

 

Also seems notable that they need catching and we're almost certain to deal a catcher this winter

[KingCubsFan]

4. Transition to a new, permanent future of mostly 85-90 win teams based on a budget comfortably below the LT threshold and an a priori commitment to never tanking again.

Sustained success was always dependent on keeping a top farm system. That obviously hasn’t happened. So now you’re faced with heading off the cliff in 2021 or waiting until everybody leaves in 2022. I don’t think we’re getting much for anybody outside of Contreras, so I wouldn’t blame the Cubs if they ran it back one more time due to a winnable division. But my guess is Theo and Jed had differing views on that, and my money is on Jed wanting to tear it down this offseason.

[SaorsaDaonnan]

Sustained success was always dependent on keeping a top farm system. That obviously hasn’t happened. So now you’re faced with heading off the cliff in 2021 or waiting until everybody leaves in 2022. I don’t think we’re getting much for anybody outside of Contreras, so I wouldn’t blame the Cubs if they ran it back one more time due to a winnable division. But my guess is Theo and Jed had differing views on that, and my money is on Jed wanting to tear it down this offseason.

 

Yeah, I completely agree that they hoped to avoid painful choices by having great prospects ready to step in at multiple positions right about now, if not over the past couple years. But lacking that, faced with a choice between tanking, raising payroll, or being out of contention but not tanking, with a couple marketable stars but no real playoff shot, I think the family has always leaned toward #3. Not sure about that, hope I’m wrong, but I always suspected it, and despite the fact that I’ve been arguing that the writing seems to be on the wall about big payroll cuts, I’m also skeptical that the org would choose to tank.

 

Since terms like teardown may be interpreted differently by each of us, the concrete thing I’m expecting is that the team keeps Rizzo, Darvish, Hendricks, and perhaps Baez to give a lowball extension offer to at some point, but does approximately zilch over the next few years to add anybody from the FA market.

 

If Hoerner/Alzolay/Marquez/Davis/any trade returns turn out to be useful in, say, 2022, we could be looking at a reasonable team still built around Baez/Rizzo/Darvish/Hendricks, but like my projected 2021 team, still one gradually built up through existing young assets rather than blowing it all up and bringing in a ton of new, low minors youth.

 

I can see the argument that the approach I’m describing might be worse than tanking, but predictions should be based on observed trends rather than ones own value judgments, and IMO this is where the rhetoric has been pointing for a while.

 

I also have a question for everybody: if Jed goes to Tom and says he wants to sell off literally every good player we have, do the rest of you expect that Tom would ok it?

[SaorsaDaonnan]

Here’s a shorter version of my expectation:

 

“First we tanked, then we spent, now we’re the Tribune”

[Backtobanks]

Sustained success was always dependent on keeping a top farm system. That obviously hasn’t happened. So now you’re faced with heading off the cliff in 2021 or waiting until everybody leaves in 2022. I don’t think we’re getting much for anybody outside of Contreras, so I wouldn’t blame the Cubs if they ran it back one more time due to a winnable division. But my guess is Theo and Jed had differing views on that, and my money is on Jed wanting to tear it down this offseason.

 

Yeah, I completely agree that they hoped to avoid painful choices by having great prospects ready to step in at multiple positions right about now, if not over the past couple years. But lacking that, faced with a choice between tanking, raising payroll, or being out of contention but not tanking, with a couple marketable stars but no real playoff shot, I think the family has always leaned toward #3. Not sure about that, hope I’m wrong, but I always suspected it, and despite the fact that I’ve been arguing that the writing seems to be on the wall about big payroll cuts, I’m also skeptical that the org would choose to tank.

 

Since terms like teardown may be interpreted differently by each of us, the concrete thing I’m expecting is that the team keeps Rizzo, Darvish, Hendricks, and perhaps Baez to give a lowball extension offer to at some point, but does approximately zilch over the next few years to add anybody from the FA market.

 

If Hoerner/Alzolay/Marquez/Davis/any trade returns turn out to be useful in, say, 2022, we could be looking at a reasonable team still built around Baez/Rizzo/Darvish/Hendricks, but like my projected 2021 team, still one gradually built up through existing young assets rather than blowing it all up and bringing in a ton of new, low minors youth.

 

I can see the argument that the approach I’m describing might be worse than tanking, but predictions should be based on observed trends rather than ones own value judgments, and IMO this is where the rhetoric has been pointing for a while.

 

I also have a question for everybody: if Jed goes to Tom and says he wants to sell off literally every good player we have, do the rest of you expect that Tom would ok it?

 

I don't think Tom would ok it. As many of us have pointed out, getting rid of all (or most) of the salaries of KB, Schwarber, and possibly Contreras and Kimbrel makes PTR happy while fielding a competitive team (in a lousy division) maximizes his bottom line.

[UMFan83]

It’s crazy to me to see all the crazy contracts NBA teams handed out to role players this week and in the MLB even the richest teams are talking about gutting payroll and crying poor. I get that there are different dynamics in play between the 2 leagues but damn

[Derwood]

It’s crazy to me to see all the crazy contracts NBA teams handed out to role players this week and in the MLB even the richest teams are talking about gutting payroll and crying poor. I get that there are different dynamics in play between the 2 leagues but damn

 

I'm sure the MLB owners would love to be paying 12 players instead of 40

[Clem Fandango]

^^ Yeah, if this team sucks next year then NSBB will be crickets

 

Honestly, the rebuilding years were probably the most invested I had ever been in the Cubs in my whole life. Theo had a lot to do with that, but if they blow it up and pull in some big prospects/youngsters I actually think I might be more interested than I have been the last couple of years.

[Cubswin11]

It’s crazy to me to see all the crazy contracts NBA teams handed out to role players this week and in the MLB even the richest teams are talking about gutting payroll and crying poor. I get that there are different dynamics in play between the 2 leagues but damn

With the revenue sharing and the escrow account hold back thing they do (think they upped the % for this year) the contract exposure for NBA teams is far less than those surface level numbers if revenues tank this year for them. Players will have their salaries severely cut and what’s held back will cover the owners shortfalls.