2020 Offseason Thread

[Cubswin11]

[Ding Dong Johnson]

[Cubswin11]

[Derwood]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Cubswin11]

Max Schrock isn’t a terrible pickup. He seems like decent contacty depth and could be TLS like.

[cl smooth]

Nick Castellanos doesn't opt out of Reds contract as there’s a drive into deep left field by Castellanos and that’ll be a home run. And so that’ll make it a 4-0 ballgame. I dont know if I’ll ever be putting on this headset again.

[UMFan83]

Good to see the Ricketts family aren’t quite cartoon villains, just your normal every day real world villains

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

The 31-year-old Sugano is one of Japan’s most decorated pitchers, winning the Central League MVP in 2014 and Sawamura Award (the Japanese version of the Cy Young award) in 2017 and 2018. He had a back injury in 2019 and did not pitch to his career norms, but this season he is 13-1 with a 2.02 ERA. His fastball registers just 90-92 mph regularly, but his excellence is built around his array of pitches and pinpoint control (he has averaged 1.7 walks per nine innings for his career).

 

...

 

Two MLB scouts who have a history covering Sugano project him as a strong No. 3 type starter in the majors.

[champaignchris]

 

Didi Gregorius without a QO is interesting. I wonder how into 2B he and his agents would be? 2B posted a 91 wRC+ in 2020, 94 and 93 in 2019 and 2018

 

Everyone but Bauer and Realmuto should probably jump on that QO.

[Backtobanks]

 

Didi Gregorius without a QO is interesting. I wonder how into 2B he and his agents would be? 2B posted a 91 wRC+ in 2020, 94 and 93 in 2019 and 2018

 

Did you forget that we're broke?

[Bertz]

 

Food for thought, though I don't actually agree with this take. I actually thought Gausman getting one was a somewhat encouraging sign for this winter. If he'd done what he did over a full season, total no-brainer, but over only 60 innings that's actually somewhat aggressive. And Semien not getting one is slightly surprising, but his 2019 was very clearly juiced ball aided. And here in 2020 Statcast backs up the idea that he declined in all phases.

 

It's not good news certainly, but I thought the QO decisions were one of the first signs the bottom isn't going to completely fall out from the market this winter.

[Backtobanks]

MLBTR has their top FAs and predictions. Some players of note and interest:

Quintana to the Red Sox $18m/2 yrs.

Taijuan Walker to the Nationals $16m/2yrs

Cesar Hernandez to the Diamondbacks $6m/1yr.

Lester to the Braves $5m/1yr

Chris Archer to the Cubs $4m/1yr.

 

With all the talk of trading Bryant, Contreras, and/or Schwarber for financial reasons I would think we could afford a few of the players above to fill holes. My favorites would be Walker, Quintana, and Hernandez.

[Cubswin11]

Based on the MLBTR contract estimates I’d be interested in some combo of;

 

-Q 2/18

-Wong 2/16

-Profar 1/7

-Ray 1/6

-C. Hernandez 1/6

-Minor 1/6

-Desclafani 1/4

 

They have Stroman at 4/68 so yeah no thanks at that or anything more.

[champaignchris]

Based on the MLBTR contract estimates I’d be interested in some combo of;

 

-Q 2/18

-Wong 2/16

-Profar 1/7

-Ray 1/6

-C. Hernandez 1/6

-Minor 1/6

-Desclafani 1/4

 

That’s close to what I was looking at. To Descalfini and Hernandez I added...

JBJ 2/16

Archer 1/4

Melanson 1/4

 

If these contract estimates are close to right, the Cubs can probably fill in their holes for about ~$25-30MM and not have to shed much other salary to do it.

 

Unsexy and unlikely to lead to a 95 win team. But will probably get you an 85 win team and a reasonable shot at the playoffs.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Bertz]

My wishlist for this offseason is:

 

- Vet #3 starter

- RH OFer who can at least fake CF

- LH IFer

- Young near MLB-ready SP who can hang at Iowa with Abbott

- Young MLB-proven bat-first position player

 

The latter two obviously come via trade, but the first three probably can be knocked out via FA. I'd say Paxton/Grossman/Wong would be my top choices respectively, but I'd be perfectly fine with something more like Minor/Pillar/Profar.

 

With how big of a question mark payroll is though it's hard to get too attached to specific names.

[Tim]

Rough outline based on those projections...

 

Trade Schwarber for ???

 

1) Brantley 2/28

2) Wong 2/16

3) Ray 1/6

4) Archer 1/4

5) McGee 1/3

 

- Adds contact to the lineup

- Adds two potential arms for the 3/4 spots in the rotation to compete with Mills & Alzolay

- Dodgers unlocked something in McGee this year, seems a bargain if healthy

 

plus the usual odds & ends relievers

 

$35m/yr total minus Schwarber savings puts things around $27m in 2021. If Brantley & Wong can backload, it takes some of the burden off 21 when cash will be tighter. That puts us around $195m, so probably still too much. Non-tendering Martinez, Almora, Ryan & Winkler removes another $6m or so. If they could run with a ~$189m payroll, I'd like the team in this division, which should be pretty weak in 2021. I'd project them at around 88-91 wins or so.

 

I get the feeling I'll want to blow up this plan once we see the non-tenders.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah I’m very in on Ray for a 1 year deal. Maybe a 1+ option year deal. Only real worry is we don’t have a great track record of getting walk rates down, even guys with historically good walk rates seem to come in and spike here. Maybe it’s noise, but is a concern.

[imb]

Good to see the Ricketts family aren’t quite cartoon villains, just your normal every day real world villains

 

 

if they had not picked up this contract i dont think i could have watched a game again as long as they were here

[Bertz]

 

I think the Mets are an underrated option here. JD Davis is about as much of a 3B as Ryan Braun was, and they seem to like using McNeil in a Zobrist style super utility role.

[Backtobanks]

Necessary hot takes:

 

- If the Cubs can't be picky then nothing's happening, article! The Chicago Cubs aren't salary dumping Kris Bryant coming off a division win just because his pandemic slash didn't please the Ancient Ones these reptiles serve

 

- That the Nationals are Carter Kieboom are in the first group is still hilarious. Nobody wants your pre-injured pitching prospects and Carter Kieboom, numbnuts! Kieboom hasn't lit the league on fire offensively? You don't say?! Let me put on my shocked face

 

- Who are the Dodgers trading? Josiah Gray? G'luck on that one. Hoese and Busch are alright but the kind of talents you put around a Kris Bryant, not hope to land when trading away Kris Bryant. The rest are either years off (Vogel, Williams, Cartaya, Rodriguez) or bit players (literally everyone else?)

 

- Same for the Tigers. Their system is so top heavy that a Bryant match is impractical for both sides, love them for Contreras tho and they've talked about improving offense at catcher

 

- I think the *Rays* are an underrated landing spot. They just straight up don't care for mainstream analysis or thinking, are poised to be an opportunistic buyer this offseason, have the need for a lineup anchor like Bryant, will enjoy the one year aspect, will be happy to take a draft pick, have the best farm system in the sport, are currently seeking free land and stadium money

 

In their chat yesterday about the FA predictions, they thought Bryant has minimal trade value, so we're kind of stuck with needing to clear money and not getting very much in return.

[Cubswin11]

Bryant isn’t going to return horsefeathers with 1 year and ~$25 mil left during the offseason. We’re better off keeping him or NT’ing him if they feel they can spend the money better.

[Backtobanks]

Bryant isn’t going to return horsefeathers with 1 year and ~$25 mil left during the offseason. We’re better off keeping him or NT’ing him if they feel they can spend the money better.

 

So we have Bryant, Kimbrel, and Schwarber with having little or no trade value and PTR tightening the purse strings with holes to fill. It will be interesting to see how Theo figures this one out.

[Backtobanks]

Whoever called modern baseball trash (everyone?) may have been onto something. The insanity of this rumor is flabbergasting:

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mets-rumors-latest-trades-and-signings

 

If Cohen is willing to take on Darvish’s deal as well as the $17 million still owed to Craig Kimbrel while sending back a cost-effective piece to the Cubs, Chicago could strongly consider it. Darvish is coming off a 2.01 ERA in 2020, but he’s 34 years old and has battled arm injuries in the past.

 

Not only are the Cubs trading the guy who should win the 2020 NL CY, they're doing it in a salary dump to get rid of both him and that pesky still possible HoF reliever! To the hero owner of the Mets!

 

I could see that deal if we're getting back Peterson, Nimmo, and Diaz, but I'm sure that's not going to happen.

[champaignchris]

If the Cubs are going to tear it all down, Darvish and Hendricks would easily be their most bankable commodities in terms of prospect return.

 

But there’d be no reason to tie one of them to Kimbrel and reduce the return.