2020 Offseason Thread

[Post Count Padder]

Let's get horsefeathering wild. What do you do?

 

Sign JBJ and LeMahieu. Add to the pen, some good relievers on the market. I'm honestly fine with the rotation including Yu, Hendricks, Alzolay and Mills but really need a good No. 3 starter. Revamp the bench. Give Nico a little more time in the minors.

 

Or maybe there won't be a next season and it's all a mess.

[PackLandVA]

Spend a bazillion dollars and sign the top 6-8 Free Agents.

[Backtobanks]

Let's get horsefeathering wild. What do you do?

 

Sign JBJ and LeMahieu. Add to the pen, some good relievers on the market. I'm honestly fine with the rotation including Yu, Hendricks, Alzolay and Mills but really need a good No. 3 starter. Revamp the bench. Give Nico a little more time in the minors.

 

Or maybe there won't be a next season and it's all a mess.

 

Obviously, Lemahieu would be a great addition, but where are we getting the money to sign him?

[Cubswin11]

They are fucked. It’s over. It doesn’t matter. They are done.

2022 is the best chance they have if they can clear some money and not commit any money past. They should hit a firm reset this offseason and just bottom out. Non-tender Schwarbs, don’t give Rizzo a big deal and don’t pick up the option, trade KB for 40 cents on the dollar, etc burn it down. horsefeathers em all.

[Bertz]

It's really hard to say where payroll is going to be this offseason, and that obviously informs what's possible. I'm hoping that with Marquee going full force they still run something like $200M, but safe bet is always going to be that the Ricketts will disappoint.

 

I mentioned this in the game thread, aside from Heyward the FO can potentially clean the slate this winter. There are currently only five guaranteed deals on the team: Yu, Kyle, Bote, Kimbrel, and Heyward. The first three are clearly positive value, and Heyward's clearly immovable. Kimbrel's harder to say, but he's looked like 2018 Kimbrel for the last 6 weeks. I'd bet that's enough for teams to consider him fixed and take on his money.

 

I 100% trade Willson this winter. With him actually being valuable and Caratini and Amaya behind him he's gotta go. Bryant as well. I'd rather have Bote starting and ~$22M to spend than Bryant for next year. He'll probably bring back a couple of fun arms but honestly I trade him regardless of the return. Anything beyond that depends on how high payroll can go, though Schwarber probably goes for me as well.

[17 Seconds]

keep: rizzo, baez, bryant

trade: happ, schwarber, willson

i simply don't give a shitt: every other position player

 

i say keep baez/bryant because i don't think they have great value and i'd rather hope for a rebound and maybe for a team friendly extension (i still think this happens with javy)

[Bertz]

 

We know most teams are going to cut spending this winter. Here, we finally get some numbers for a team. The Rangers are cutting payroll by about 1/3rd, from ~150 to ~100, though it sounds like they were already planning to do some cutting pre-COVID. I wouldn't be surprised if we see most teams cut something like 10-20%. This FA market is going to be a bloodbath.

[toonsterwu]

I think I would not be surprised by anything this offseason. Heck, it starts with this Epstein/Ricketts meeting. Would it be absolutely stunning if both guys decided that his run was done and mutually split? I wouldn't be shocked. The organization is bogged down. In some respects, it happened quick.

As interesting as some of the guys in the minors are, honestly, most systems have a few guys of top intrigue.

 

You could run it back. With Darvish/Hendricks, you have a capable top two. Add a bat for the top of the order (I'm still mildly curious which Marlin critiqued our bats), hope Baez bounces back after this strange season, and you achieve better balance. Get lucky with the pen, and hey, short series, who knows. Still, we've been saying that for a couple years now.

 

I guess you could hope the ownership says screw it up and spends a crapload. I don't that's realistic.

 

I'm leaning towards blowing it up, to be honest. We aren't the A's (I believe Forst gave an interview saying they could never blow things up like some other organizations, for fear of losing their fan base). I think this team has a ceiling now - this core isn't a championship level core anymore. It's a good enough core that will be a winning club if it's kept together, but to win a title, it would need some luck. I'm not reading too much into some of the offensive performances this year, but the general trajectory of the organization the last few. With age and contracts, and the bloated contracts constricting movement, and the unknown of how payrolls will look next year, it feels like this window is ending soon. You could hold on for a year, but then trade value goes down (you could possibly even argue that we held on one year too long).

 

If you blow it up, though, you should blow it up. Don't half it. Go all the way. Put everything out there and see what you can. The return for KB probably won't be as good as anyone expects, but with enough teams desperate for a big bat, it's possible (still think the NL East is the likely target there). Contreras could get moved even if they don't blow it up - I like the Tigers idea above, but he should generate a decent market if he's out there. Off the top, we have a reasonable option on Rizzo, right? I half-wonder if there's any way we could pick up the option and move him. It'd be a bit cold-hearted, as I'm sure Rizzo would prefer to pick and choose and sign for more than 1 year, but feels like some team might give up something for 1 year of him, and we could pick up some of the costs to help a return. If you burn it down, I'd shop Happ as well - I wonder if he gets better than this, and if not, some team might buy him on his performance, along with multiple years of control.

 

___

 

In saying all that, I think Option A, running it back, is most likely. Many teams look to be paring payroll. It'd be sort of a last hurrah for ... well, everyone - Epstein, Rizzo, Bryant, Lester (buyout seems a lock, but it's not hard to see them agree to a cheap 1 year deal), Kimbrel and so forth. I'm not against it, but I'd like to see some substantive moves. Shop Contreras in this situation - he's at the age where the wear and tear may start to accumulate, but still, young enough that with his track record, you might get something decent. I really wonder about the Padres - Preller's had a history of all-in gambits in the past, and with a young team whose window is now, Contreras would offer a better backstop.

 

___

 

Don't know what happens, but I'm mildly ... not upset they were beat. Hope it gets some creativity flowing in the FO.

[champaignchris]

Me, personally, my preference would be...

 

1. The consensus is that teams aren’t going to be generous with free agent signings. So if you’re going to splurge, this would be the year to do it... go get Springer, Semien, Bauer, Stroman, and Colome. Damn the torpedoes. Full speed ahead. Buy another World Series.

 

But, since we all know that’s not happening...

 

2. Tear the whole thing down. If they’re not going to be a contributor come 2023, jettison them. Unfortunately that would probably mean that Yu and Hendricks have to go and that makes me sad, but you gotta do it. Restock the system. Go dumpster diving for cheap lottery tickets. Aim to be competitive again in 2023.

 

But, most likely...

 

3. Let it ride for one more season. Sign a free agent pitcher. Mess around with the end of the bench and the back of the bullpen. Wash, rinse, repeat. Hope the playoffs stay at 16 teams and you can squeak back in with an 83-win team.

Edited October 4, 2020 by champaignchris

[Tim]

I don't see teams being willing to give up much in trade this year for guys at expensive points of arbitration. Free agents are going to come at a relative discount, so it makes no sense to trade for guys getting expensive arbitration agreements.

 

I don't see Theo being willing to take pennies on the dollar for his guys.

 

I think we ultimately mess around at the edges and bring back largely the same team next year.

[Bertz]

I don't see teams being willing to give up much in trade this year for guys at expensive points of arbitration. Free agents are going to come at a relative discount, so it makes no sense to trade for guys getting expensive arbitration agreements.

 

I don't see Theo being willing to take pennies on the dollar for his guys.

 

I think we ultimately mess around at the edges and bring back largely the same team next year.

 

To me, this is the nightmare scenario. If the core guys don't have value in trade, then let them go. Everyone is on non-guaranteed deals, there's no gun to the FO's head forcing them to keep the band together. And we've seen that for whatever reason (the velocity thing sounds pretty compelling to me), the whole has consistently been less than the sum of its parts with this group. I understand not going scorched earth, as I imagine for each individual the smart money is on a bounceback. But there's no reason we should be betting on four concurrent bouncebacks. And certainly not spending ~$70M for the privilege.

 

Do something to start working towards the next great Cubs team. I personally think the pitching is good enough and the division is bad enough that you can do a "retool not rebuild" kind of thing. But even if you don't, start the teardown process now. You don't have to make nine trades this winter to tear it down to the studs in one go, but make like three.

 

The FA market is also going to be absolutely flooded with mid level players this year. For a front office that prides themselves so much on their talent evaluation, this is what they're so highly compensated for. If Theo wants to continue being the highest paid non-player in baseball, he probably can't just sit on his hands for a third straight offseason.

[CubinNY]

 

We know most teams are going to cut spending this winter. Here, we finally get some numbers for a team. The Rangers are cutting payroll by about 1/3rd, from ~150 to ~100, though it sounds like they were already planning to do some cutting pre-COVID. I wouldn't be surprised if we see most teams cut something like 10-20%. This FA market is going to be a bloodbath.

If everybody is selling who's going to be buying?

[Bertz]

 

We know most teams are going to cut spending this winter. Here, we finally get some numbers for a team. The Rangers are cutting payroll by about 1/3rd, from ~150 to ~100, though it sounds like they were already planning to do some cutting pre-COVID. I wouldn't be surprised if we see most teams cut something like 10-20%. This FA market is going to be a bloodbath.

If everybody is selling who's going to be buying?

 

In terms of teams who are going to net add payroll, I'd guess we could count them on one hand. Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays all look likely. White Sox and Nats wouldn't be shocking. And maybe one or two of the rebuilding teams might try to take advantage and start shopping early? But mostly it's going to be teams moving payroll around, e.g. let's say the Cubs traded Baez and signed Marcus Semien. In that scenario they're not adding money, but they are still buying. It sounds like we're going to see a record number of non-tenders this winter, so I expect to see a lot of "team X cuts $40M in arb players and adds back $25-30M in FA." It's going to be ugly.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah I just hope we put ourselves in a spot to be able to spend $25-40 mil in FA. Call it adding or reshuffling. But to do that it probably requires moving Willy for some prospects, non-tendering Schwarbs and moving Kimbrel and part of his $ at least. Also the KB NT is probably on the table. The FA market is going to be so depressed and there’s going to be a lot of intriguing non-tenders I just hope whatever the plan is it allows us to add some stuff in it to more re-tool than blow it up (though we do need healthy turnover because the team is broke with the makeup and redundancies) because we will still likely be the best team in the division going in to next year.

[Cubswin11]

My favorite moment of today's end of year presser with Epstein was when he offered to dive in deep on the differences in sample between 60 and 162 games and the media instead chose to keep asking questions about his role (which is what opened the conference). It just seems very telling of sports "journalism" and how so much energy is put towards rumor and narrative, always owner friendly for some unknowable reason, over at least trying to present as much real, meaningful information as possible all the time. Wtf do they expect him to say about his role that was different from just a few minutes ago? What would it have hurt to get an Official Take on the subject?

 

Yeah I just hope we put ourselves in a spot to be able to spend $25-40 mil in FA. Call it adding or reshuffling. But to do that it probably requires moving Willy for some prospects, non-tendering Schwarbs and moving Kimbrel and part of his $ at least. Also the KB NT is probably on the table. The FA market is going to be so depressed and there’s going to be a lot of intriguing non-tenders I just hope whatever the plan is it allows us to add some stuff in it to more re-tool than blow it up (though we do need healthy turnover because the team is broke with the makeup and redundancies) because we will still likely be the best team in the division going in to next year.

 

I think all of these things are more "on the table" than on the table. It's dramatic and we want that, yes, but also crazy inefficient and too driven by emotion

 

Trading guys like Contreras, Bote, Almora, fringe pitchers (Underwood, Maples, Miller) makes much more sense - still talking $10+ million off a payroll that's already dropping several ML contracts (Chatwood, Quintana, Lester?, Kipnis, Souza, whoever I'm forgetting)

The money falling off of guys leaving isn’t enough to do any real adds. They almost certainly are going to be running a lower payroll in 2021 and be well below the LT. They won’t be close to anywhere we were in 2020-2019 in terms of payroll/LT. You need to clear more money than just the “money falling off” to really add anything.

 

Right now Spotrac has us at $110 mil before arb, I’d assume after adding arb in is where we are going to end up payroll wise overall ($160-170 mil) on the year. We aren’t touching that $190-200+ range we have been.

 

They need to do a Schwarbs NT, Willy trade and Kimbrel (at least partial money) trade to clear any decent amount of FA money. lol at the idea of trading Bote or Almora accomplishing this. Bote makes no money for 1, he should be kept and has nominal trade value and looking to trade Almora over just non-tendering him is a waste of time just NT him.

 

But yes, if we assume they can somehow spend to just below the LT and the goal is to just not be third time repeaters then I wouldn’t do any of these moves except maybe the Schwarbs one and of course the Albert one.

Edited October 5, 2020 by Cubswin11

[champaignchris]

I think the minimum the Cubs would have to do to stay under the luxury tax and credibly claim to be trying to compete would be to sign the following:

 

Near starting quality middle infielder - Asdrubal Cabrera or similar

Fourth outfielder - [expletive] Hernandez or similar

3/4 slot starting pitcher - re-sign Jose Quintana or similar

High (-ish) leverage lefty reliever - Justin Wilson or similar

 

I’m not the payroll expert some are in here, but I think the Cubs could spend approx $40MM and stay under the tax.

[Cubswin11]

I think the minimum the Cubs would have to do to stay under the luxury tax and credibly claim to be trying to compete would be to sign the following:

 

Near starting quality middle infielder - Asdrubal Cabrera or similar

Fourth outfielder - [expletive] Hernandez or similar

3/4 slot starting pitcher - re-sign Jose Quintana or similar

High (-ish) leverage lefty reliever - Justin Wilson or similar

 

I’m not the payroll expert some are in here, but I think the Cubs could spend approx $40MM and stay under the tax.

Yeah they have about $40 mil in room but I’d find it hard to believe they’re going to run up close to the just under the LT number again this year. I’d love for them to do it and they absolutely should. I just expect they’re going to stay more in the $155-170 range payroll wise. Which is pretty much where we are at with the current roster after adding in arbitration.

[Cubswin11]

The money falling off of guys leaving isn’t enough to do any real adds. They almost certainly are going to be running a lower payroll in 2021 and be well below the LT. They won’t be close to anywhere we were in 2020-2019 in terms of payroll/LT. You need to clear more money than just the “money falling off” to really add anything.

 

Right now Spotrac has us at $110 mil before arb, I’d assume after adding arb in is where we are going to end up payroll wise overall ($160-170 mil) on the year. We aren’t touching that $190-200+ range we have been.

 

They need to do a Schwarbs NT, Willy trade and Kimbrel (at least partial money) trade to clear any decent amount of FA money. lol at the idea of trading Bote or Almora accomplishing this. Bote makes no money for 1, he should be kept and has nominal trade value and looking to trade Almora over just non-tendering him is a waste of time just NT him.

 

Bote's $3 million against the LT which is > no money. What's nominal trade value here? He's an infielder in his 20s at a non-1B position with some power and patience and 4 years at low prices left. In an offseason in which most players will be defined by salary and control, what's not to like about that position? So long as they're shopping realistically, not every move has to be The One that will save The Future, there's no reason to think they couldn't get a desirable enough pitcher in a deal. Same thing for Slaps, the league is still short on CFs and he's cheap, young, and under control for multiple seasons

 

As far as the payroll stuff...You're talking lopping an additional ~$30 million on top of the at least $30 million coming off after going from 3rd in payroll in 2019 to 7th in 2020...That just doesn't add up IMO and I'm not even calling for a $190-200+ payroll, which would require some $100+ million being added to what's already committed in 2021 according to MLBTR

The MLBTR estimate doesn’t have arb. So that’s wrong. I also don’t know how they factor in options, if it’s just buyout money or assume option is exercised. Would think it’s just buyout money since that’s the guaranteed amount. So their estimate might not have Rizzo’s option but does have Jon’s buyout. We are at ~$160 payroll wise right now and ~$190 LT wise adding arb guys in and picking up Rizzo option/doing Lester buyout (so $10-20 mil to spend to stay under the LT). So yeah that’s the payroll you are calling for if you aren’t willing to do a Schwarbs/Kimbrel move and want to keep every non Willy guy potentially. I just don’t see them being willing to be much higher than where they are today.

 

If you think you can get something for Bote cool, I’m for it. But again LOL at thinking Almora is bringing anything back. He’s horsefeathering terrible and costs ~$2 mil this year.

Edited October 5, 2020 by Cubswin11

[Tim]

When they non-tender Almora this fall, I don't think he gets a guaranteed MLB contract. He has zero trade value.

[Backtobanks]

Cot's has them $104 million under the non-adjusted 2020 payroll with the following players up for arbitration:

Caratini

Happ

Winkler

Ryan

Almora

Martinez

Contreras

Schwarber

Baez

Bryant

Tepera

Rae

 

I can see raises going to Caratini, Happ, Winkler, maybe Ryan, Tepera, but all of them probably would get slight raises because of their low salaries. Obviously, Contreras would get a decent raise, but the big salary guys (Schwarber, Baez, Bryant) should lose in arbitration after their performances this year. I would think there's some money to make some mid-level additions, but convincing PTR of that is another story.

[Cubswin11]

Cot's has them $104 million under the non-adjusted 2020 payroll with the following players up for arbitration:

Caratini

Happ

Winkler

Ryan

Almora

Martinez

Contreras

Schwarber

Baez

Bryant

Tepera

Rae

 

I can see raises going to Caratini, Happ, Winkler, maybe Ryan, Tepera, but all of them probably would get slight raises because of their low salaries. Obviously, Contreras would get a decent raise, but the big salary guys (Schwarber, Baez, Bryant) should lose in arbitration after their performances this year. I would think there's some money to make some mid-level additions, but convincing PTR of that is another story.

Teams and players also can’t use the 2020 season to make arguments in their arb cases, MLB/MLBPA agreed to that before the year. So that benefits Schwarbs, Baez and Bryant to get more using past years as the only basis. Bryant (~$18 mil), Baez (~$10 mil), Schwarbs (~$7 mil) and Contreras (~$4.5 mil) accounted for ~$40 mil last year. That number probably jumps to ~$60 this year Bryant (~$25 mil), Baez (~$15 mil), Schwarbs (~$10 mil), Willy (~$7 mil).

[Brian]

Brett at Bleacher Nation made this handy chart with arb estimates...

 

[Bertz]

Brett at Bleacher Nation made this handy chart with arb estimates...

 

 

Brett's write-up is pretty spot on too. There are a few additional things I'd point out though if you want to be less pessimistic about the payroll:

 

1. The last two years payroll has averaged ~225. That may be a more accurate baseline than just 2020, as clearly the idea was to splurge, then get just under the tax, and repeat. So if you lop 25%/15% off of that baseline, you're talking more like 170/190

 

2. Marquee is now fully up, and they got their carriage deals with all of the providers you would have reasonably expected. For ~5 years this was supposed to be the payroll silver bullet, and now it's here

 

That said, Brett is generally captain optimism, and he is vaguely connected, so if he's saying to pump the brakes, you probably should pump the brakes. Also, the next time PTR exceeds expectations will be the first since he poached Theo.

[Bertz]

 

Would not be surprised if the Marlins are surprise buyers this winter, and they make a ton of sense as a destination for Willson. Also Schwarber to a lesser extent.

[Named After Maddux]

My current premise on the offseason would be to sign Rizzo to an extension, trade Willson, and tender the following: Bryant, Baez, Happ, Caratini, Tepera, and Rea. There would be a couple contact-oriented bats, and lots of cheap relievers (the market should be flooded) to see if they can pick up next year's version of a knuckle curve or cutter.

 

1. Rizzo extension - save $2.5 mil for 2021

 

He will always be a blindspot to me. There's no player in this current era that I would hate more wearing another jersey as much as Rizzo so I'll admit that there's possibility it'll look bad in the later years. But, he had the best year out of the core four and his contact rates make me think he would continue to fit well in a revamped line-up. Sign him and put a damn "C" on his jersey (that doesn't stand for Cubs). I'd do 6 years/$120 and structure it $14/18/22/22/22/22 so it'd actually save $2.5 mil for next season.

 

2. Trading Willson - save ~$8 mil for 2021

 

I think Tom mentioned the Rays and Blue Jays as teams who could be interested in Willson. I agree. WC's framing improvements opens up trading him to more teams. So let's just throw out a JT Realmuto-lite deal: a ML C, a top 100 milb SP, and a deeper prospect. WC to Blue Jays for Simeon Woods Richardson, Danny Jansen (80.4% contact% for career), and Leonardo Jimenez

 

3. Tendering Bryant and Baez - cost neutral

 

If I'm going to "buy" any of the core for bounce-back seasons it's Bryant and Baez on one-year deals. KB is one of the best Cubs in franchise history. Even during seasons when he's been hurt, his production has been above average. You run it back for one more season. For Baez, the defense is still elite. The players will have video capability and some fans are hopefully coming back. I'll take the chance we get 2017 Baez and that's worth it for what he'll likely cost.

 

4. Moving on from Schwarber - save ~$10 mil from 2021 projections/decreased if involved in trade

 

Kyle is a legend and there's a special place in Cubs lore for him. But it's obvious we can't run back the same group again and Schwarber is the one that makes the most sense to replace with a contact-oriented LF. I don't think Schwarber brings back much of anything realistically in a trade (see maybe a swap with BOS for Benintendi)

 

5. The other tender lot: most are obvious (Happ, Caratini). Tepera I'm split on and I think Rea is a cheap option as a reliever only. Almora is an obvious 'no'. Save ~$3 mil

 

6. The contact bats - Brantley (unlikely), Benintendi, Grossman, and/or La Stella.

 

Brantley is the dream, but Sahadev mentioned it's really unlikely so let's talk about a trade for Benintendi. He had contact rates of 82% for his first three years before injuries and/or swing changes led him to fall in that department. He'd be a possible nontender if BOS could, but he signed a two year deal last offseason so he'll make $6.6 mil in 2021. If the cost is low, I think he's a good bounceback. If a Schwarber for Benintendi deal would be possible (I dunno) then maybe that's a deal you look at. BOS takes a chance on Schwarber for effectively $3-4 mil and moves Benintendi and the Cubs take a chance on a player they've liked since before the 2015 draft. I'd love La Stella and I think it's possible, but I do wonder if just playing Nico and Vargas gives you the contact you want from 2B.

 

7. Find a SP with velocity

 

The Cubs have tried to get Kevin Gausman for years. The moves above likely clear $15 mil. How about a Lance Lynn-like deal? 3 Years/$33 mil. WC could also get traded for a SP instead. Zach Eflin is an interesting target. If not them, I'd love to get Kyle Wight, but I think he's breaking out enough that ATL won't move him.

 

 

If you're subtracting $2.5 mil from Rizzo's option, trading WC, moving Schwarber, and bringing in Benintendi and Gausman you've subtracted about $3 mil from the projected $160 mil or so that Brett posted. They'll need it to fill out the roster and hopefully the budget isn't as razor thin as that. If you want to really unload payroll, I'd move Kimbrel.

 

Edit: nontender not contender