How do you fix the Cubs?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Seems like we need a new Theo to come in and pull a Theo. 2 years of tanking and clearing the books and this whole thing could be built back up.

 

Ricketts has accomplished his goal (for which I am eternally grateful,) leaving HoyerStein to do as they wish, so long as it doesn’t involve money.

[SaorsaDaonnan]

I question the premise.

 

2018 was a 95 (pythag 94) win year despite terrible, net improbable new pitcher implosions, and was only prevented from a postseason run by the Russell crisis and/or the failure to handle it quickly and appropriately.

 

Maddon didn’t even read the report and deserved to be fired then, for that reason and others, but some combination of sentimentality, PR concerns, and possibly (my guess) ownership wanting to protect old-boys-who-protect-other-old-boys meant that he got to stick around and screw up our team & its vibe for a further season, as did Russell. And even then, it was a freak spate of injuries just after the deadline that did the team in, with Hamels’ rushed return not helping. Freed of all the organizational drama, and with a normal and consistent amount of fielding practice from spring training ‘19 onward , there’s no reason this team could not have made another run, even accounting for those freak injuries.

 

What’s really happened is that since early 2017, when Lackey looked cooked, Monty struggled, Heyward started to look like he wasn’t ever going to hit again with so many years left on his contract, Schwarbs had some strange outcomes, Montero got dumped, and the team had the problem of being re-invited to the White House, Cubs baseball was more stressful than fun. After a hard-fought series against the Nats, we were exhausted in our third straight NLCS and the Dodgers kicked our ass. Then the pitching disaster of 2018 happened while Willson fell off the face of the earth, then the Russell thing piled onto already not feeling great about Chapman and Murphy, and then Joe and the org (or just ownership? seems like an ownership level decision to me...) failed to handle it. After that we sat on our ass all offseason and cried poor, right when a lot of people had always thought we might make a huge move, and just when we desperately needed to turn the page. And then 2019 was kinda just a second helping of that, due to inaction followed by a second year of bad injury luck.

 

The main impetus over the last couple years for us fans to harp on our outfield or the age & expense of our rotation isn’t analysis. It’s pain and frustration that what should have been epic years have not been —pain and frustration that’s been intensified by the preventability and waste of it all, and by the fact that it’s all happened during really bad times in our non-baseball lives when we really could have used something to uncomplicatedly enjoy. When people say they want to blow it up, generally they mean that they want the sense of optimism and control that go along with projecting a promising future rather than the stress that goes along with the times when the moment is now, the clock is ticking, and it’s unclear that the results will be there.

 

In other words, it’s not an analysis at all, it’s a desire to reboot a game that’s gone badly askew. The lack of obvious answers comes from the fact that it isn’t an analytical problem in the first place.

 

There’s nothing wrong in baseball terms with extending a couple of our core players, while either trading or playing out the other couple, depending on possible returns, and giving time to Caratini, Happ, Bote, Hoerner, Mills, Alzolay, and the kids in the pen while waiting to see how Marquez and Davis and Amaya develop. We keep talking about building a young team from the farm and acting like it’s an ineffable mystery, but those guys are already here, right in front of us for the most part. The only reason we keep missing it is that we’re tired of being let down, and sometimes mad enough to contemplate throwing the baby out along with the bathwater.

 

Probably we trade KB and extend Rizzo in the offseason, then sign Javy at some point between ST 2021 and ST 2022, and then mostly fill in around them with the younger crew, plus Darvish, Hendricks, and Heyward of course. There’s no reason the front office (or any front office, I should say, since I think Theo’s an FA after 2021 as well) should refuse to consider outside-the-box alternatives, but there’s no imperative to do so in baseball terms. If the worst that can happen is that a couple heroes leave in 2021 having given us one more year to compete and a draft pick, that actually isn’t that bad. Of course you take a good deal if one comes along, but the alternative isn’t something to freak out about. One more year to compete with a completely intact great core would be a solid plan A, and since it looks like our plan B, all the better.

 

Again, there’s no reason to stay inside this box if a better idea comes along. But the intense feeling that something profound must change is just that, a feeling. We already have a good team with a good future and good leaders. All we need to start having fun again is a couple hot weeks next month, and maybe a damn roll of the dice to go our way for once, like it hasn’t since we all got swallowed up in this hellish twilight zone four years ago.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

“Bad at developing pitching do you don’t have depth or youth” and “unlucky with pitching injuries” often look similar

[Cubswin11]

I haven’t looked at the entire list, but some FA options to help with the contact and inconsistencies that won’t cost much that I like are Robbie Grossman, Pillar, Brantley, Cesar Hernandez, Profar, Lowrie (if he’s healthy), even Kipnis back. I’m sure I’m missing a few guys plus there could be some interesting non-tenders and there will always be guys available for trade (Kimbrel for Segura is money neutralish, their bullpen is terrible and we could use a contacty bat like that), Jon Berti, etc. Edited September 24, 2020 by Cubswin11

[jersey cubs fan]

you cut their nuts off, that's how

[Tryptamine]

You rebuild and get what you can in trades to help speed up the process.

[Backtobanks]

I haven’t looked at the entire list, but some FA options to help with the contact and inconsistencies that won’t cost much that I like are Robbie Grossman, Pillar, Brantley, Cesar Hernandez, Profar, Lowrie (if he’s healthy), even Kipnis back. I’m sure I’m missing a few guys plus there could be some interesting non-tenders and there will always be guys available for trade (Kimbrel for Segura is money neutralish, their bullpen is terrible and we could use a contacty bat like that), Jon Berti, etc.

 

Segura has an extra year at almost $15 million, so that doesn't neutralize the contracts.

[Cubswin11]

I haven’t looked at the entire list, but some FA options to help with the contact and inconsistencies that won’t cost much that I like are Robbie Grossman, Pillar, Brantley, Cesar Hernandez, Profar, Lowrie (if he’s healthy), even Kipnis back. I’m sure I’m missing a few guys plus there could be some interesting non-tenders and there will always be guys available for trade (Kimbrel for Segura is money neutralish, their bullpen is terrible and we could use a contacty bat like that), Jon Berti, etc.

 

Segura has an extra year at almost $15 million, so that doesn't neutralize the contracts.

From an AAV standpoint they are and what I meant. Plus he’s a KB/Javy replacement in 2022 at least potentially. And there’s so much potential money coming off the books in 2022 putting ~$15 mil on the books isn’t a huge deal.

[Cubswin11]

Trading Craig Kimbrel for Jean Segura to eventually replace Bryant or Baez a year after the trades sounds like a way to really break the Cubs

Well you have him for the first year to try and build a better team with everyone. And assuming at least 1 is kept between KB/Javy it helps soften the landing to maintain an ability to stay competitive and a total rebuild/restart isn’t needed.

[17 Seconds]

with the seasons the hitters have had, i don't see how you possibly fix the offense. the last 2 offseasons were our chances at that. kb/baez/schwarber/willson are all having unthinkably bad seasons compared to the previous year. who is going to give up legit assets for any of them when they're coming off those seasons and have limited control left?

 

so basically, changing the offense will mean dumping these guys for next to nothing. and then what do we replace them with, with limited pieces coming back, and no money to spend?

 

theo has completely backed himself into a corner and i don't see any way out of it. as funny as it is, going into next season with the same offensive core and hoping they rebuild value is probably the most logical plan outside of a full rebuild. lol

[Cubswin11]

Yeah I think most teams won’t weigh 2020, good or bad, results all that much towards valuing guys. Obviously if injuries popped up or there was diminished velo or stuff by pitchers or clear mechanical things that will be noted but results/stats I don’t think will be. But like 17 Seconds said, the team control left and salaries of KB, Javy and Schwarbs is really what will keep their trade value down. Contreras is probably our most valuable trade piece from the offense, especially if the framing is real.

 

The division will be bad again next year, the core is still there to compete. I think they’ll bring mostly everyone back with a few margin moves on the offense (kind of like this past offseason). Pitching will have some turnover just because of Jon, Q and Chatwood all being FA.

[PackLandVA]

[Cubswin11]

I disagree on them just improving along the margins. The Cubs aren't about not spending at all and most about getting obvious bargains at new age LT (eventually salary cap) influenced prices, Darvish for example. I think the Cubs will be very willing to play in the FA field once MiL contractions let the owners flood the field with guys who teams crying even more poorer will be happy to throw MiL or split contracts at to fill some niche...Basically I think other teams are more likely to approach 2021 FA like the Cubs did in 2020 than the Cubs will

I hope you’re right, but think you’re wrong. I don’t see them adding much more than $20 mil or so in AAV this offseason unless they move Schwarbs or KB and it allows them to spend the “savings.” They’re definitely staying under the LT and think it will be decently under with them crying poor. Again, just what I see happening. Not what I want to do or think they should do.

[Cubswin11]

I disagree on them just improving along the margins. The Cubs aren't about not spending at all and most about getting obvious bargains at new age LT (eventually salary cap) influenced prices, Darvish for example. I think the Cubs will be very willing to play in the FA field once MiL contractions let the owners flood the field with guys who teams crying even more poorer will be happy to throw MiL or split contracts at to fill some niche...Basically I think other teams are more likely to approach 2021 FA like the Cubs did in 2020 than the Cubs will

 

I hope you’re right, but think you’re wrong. I don’t see them adding much more than $20 mil or so in AAV this offseason unless they move Schwarbs or KB and it allows them to spend the “savings.” They’re definitely staying under the LT and think it will be decently under with them crying poor. Again, just what I see happening. Not what I want to do or think they should do.

 

For sure they should shop Schwarber this offseason, wouldn't be surprised if an AL team is optimistic as a DH/OF to offer a quality deal. Slide Happ over the LF, sign someone like Pillar to keep CF warm for Davis, and be ready to call him up as early as early-mid Summer

Yeah moving Schwarbs for the best possible pitching return (honestly don’t know how good of a return he brings unless we take a little money back, he’ll make ~$10 mil in arb this year). Then signing a more contacty guy or guys like Grossman, Pillar, Profar, etc could help improve and fix the offense a bit. Brantley would be the ideal swap out, but idk if they can spend to that level.

[Sammy Sofa]

[Bertz]

with the seasons the hitters have had, i don't see how you possibly fix the offense. the last 2 offseasons were our chances at that. kb/baez/schwarber/willson are all having unthinkably bad seasons compared to the previous year. who is going to give up legit assets for any of them when they're coming off those seasons and have limited control left?

 

so basically, changing the offense will mean dumping these guys for next to nothing. and then what do we replace them with, with limited pieces coming back, and no money to spend?

 

theo has completely backed himself into a corner and i don't see any way out of it. as funny as it is, going into next season with the same offensive core and hoping they rebuild value is probably the most logical plan outside of a full rebuild. lol

 

This article from Dan Szymborski (ZiPS creator) a few days ago has before/after projections for KB, Rizzo, and Baez (unfortunately no Schwarber)

 

 

tl;dr is this year has been enough for the projection system to drop them each from very good to above average, not bury them completely. I'd imagine for Schwarber, who was merely above average before, he projects around average at this point. With each guy being on the eve of FA, and given the payroll cutbacks we're going to see around the league this offseason, I think they're all movable. KB and Javy probably have a bit of value, with Rizzo and Schwarber being breakeven-ish.

 

I'd ammend my plan from a month ago slightly, given that I'm starting to think Hottovy is a miracle worker and it doesn't take as many resources as I thought to keep the pitching staff afloat. There were some rumblings that Happ is down for an extension. So I throw some money his way, trade Contreras for a pretty good haul, and I trade KB for whatever pitching I can get. I'd imagine he's worth something like another team's Alzolay at this point.

 

Payroll at this point is somewhere in the $150Ms. I don't know what PTR is going to find in the couch cushions, but I'd think that leaves at least $40M to spend, probably closer to $60M. You need 2 starters and 2-3 bats, but for the bats you can be pretty position agnostic since Bote, Vic, and Nico mean every position is at least nominally filled. I'd do something like Jon Gray and Mike Minor on the pitching side, paired with Brantley, Semien, and Kiké Hernandez on the hitting end, but there's a million reasonable combinations.