2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

[CubsWin]

This is pretty awesome. I wonder how often that happens? One prep player playing against another at a showcase or something and they later are drafted by the same team in the same year.

[CubsWin]

can we find some other all around solid SS comp instead of larkin again

 

but not nick ahmed either

I know. When I heard Dan O'Dowd say it on the broadcast my immediate reaction was "oh no, that's who they comp'd Russell to!"

[Cubswin11]

can we find some other all around solid SS comp instead of larkin again

 

but not nick ahmed either

What about Bobby Crosby (who had plenty of hype) before he fell off or Orlando Cabrera with more K but more power?

[toonsterwu]

can we find some other all around solid SS comp instead of larkin again

 

but not nick ahmed either

 

OK...Cal Ripken Jr....Alan Trammell

 

Or, more unrealistically, Andrelton Simmons

 

Troy Tulowitzki

 

Miguel Tejada but with walks

 

If the bat never really takes off, I could see Jay Bell, sort of. Another lower MLB comp that isn't as bad as it might initially sound might be JJ Hardy. I can also see Xander Bogaerts.

[toonsterwu]

I do like the 5 round draft a lot more than I thought I would. If MLB ever hopes of making the draft a big thing (it'll never be as big as the NBA or NFL draft as college and prep baseball aren't followed as heavily as CBB and CFB), the shorter draft does help as the focus is more on college guys that they can showcase a bit more. It also creates a higher likelihood of picks being traded at a higher level at some point. Dunno, thought I'd hate it, but it's not bad.

 

Yeah as far as being entertaining, this seems like a win for the MLB. I didn't watch any of Day 2 or most of Day 1 but the website's draft tracker blows everyone else's out of the water...My big thing is that all the wrong people (possibly "people") win if this takes off, and it will once gambling kicks in

 

I don't disagree. All the wrong people win.

 

That said, viewing it as strictly making the draft a big thing (and I remember the draft was a time-delayed, wait on a sheet that they were reading, phone call related program (or something like that) ... the 5 round works. I think they could even push it to the NFL number (7 rounds), but the longer drafts makes it harder to follow, and legitimately, harder to care because of the minors (and the fact that some guys won't sign). I think 5 rounds, pretty much everyone will sign, so some people may care more.

 

Long term, if they want to institute more trading (and trades may be the only way to really make the draft BIG ... I mean, instead of "saving" the pool, imagine the Orioles on the phone trying to build up interest in the 2nd pick), 5-7 rounds works, as it allows for a more controlled dynamic. Of course, that would necessitate a thorough restructuring of the system, and with the international draft likely as a more immediate concern, trading is probably a good 5-10 years off.

 

_____

 

As for the Orioles and the under-slot/over-slot strategy, I think the things to take away are that you have to have more than 1 option and you have to throw a big enough number out, and it seemed like they really were all-in on Bitsko but threw out a big, but not scary big, number. All that said, getting Haskin/Mayo/Baumler (all three seem likely overslots) might end up being a better move. All that said, Kjerstad isn't a bad pick. If he's a solid RF, then they've potentially got another cornerstone to go with Adley Rutschmann, and they love their two big arms (talked to one of their scouts last year, and the organization is just drooling over Hall). I mean, Martin was the other name, but Vanderbilt hitters, like UVA guys, tend to get a bit over-hyped in recent years, and I just wonder how big that bat is, particularly if he's not at short. Westburg reminds me a bit of Ryan Flaherty (albeit, not handedness) and Servideo gives them a fairly likely utility infielder (as fairly likely as those things can go).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA: 12 Picks We Loved From Day 2 Of The 2020 MLB Draft

 

RHP Koen Moreno, Cubs (147): If Moreno had more of a chance to pitch this spring, I think it’s likely the Cubs wouldn’t have had a shot to take him at No. 147. Every time Moreno pitches, it seems like he takes a step forward, as was the case for him the entirety of last summer. He oozes athleticism, is an exceptionally gifted mover over the rubber, has a lean and projectable frame and we haven’t even talked about his stuff yet. His fastball has ranged from 87-93 for the most part, but that velocity has steadily climbed and he should be throwing an above-average fastball soon. Pair that with advanced feel for an 81-85 mph changeup that has swing-and-miss qualities and terrific natural ability to spin a breaking ball, and he has all the traits you’re looking for.

[toonsterwu]

Orioles are paying a ton of money on Coby Mayo. I'm a bit surprised how much they are paying him, but it's a product of situation as much as anything. I was excited about Bitsko more because he was a UVA signee (glad Teel dropped out of the draft), but honestly, guys like Moreno and Baumler are still growing into their stuff.

 

That said, with a 5 round draft, I'm going to stunned if there's more than a handful of guys that don't sign (honestly, I'd be surprised if more than 3-4 don't sign). I'm guessing teams have done enough legwork that they know how much it costs.

 

I can see a lot of juniors who didn't get drafted go back to school. They have to be thinking that a full year of work and they might end up in the top 5 rounds with a lot more money secured. That said, there are guys like Abbott whose stock probably can't get higher (unless UVA gave him a rotation slot ... even then, much as the idea is interesting, his pro potential is still in the pen) and that doesn't seem likely with the arms UVA has in place for next year.

 

You think Westburg can pick it that well? Hardy was a far better defensive shortstop then I think was the public perception of him.

[craig]

1. Howard - Addison Russell (pre-abuse? Or as Russell was perceived while a rising prospect?)

2. Burl - LH Maples?

3. Nwogu - Mike Mallory

4. Little - Andy Sisco

5. Moreno - Angel Guzman.

[Tim]

1. Howard - Addison Russell (pre-abuse? Or as Russell was perceived while a rising prospect?)

2. Burl - LH Maples?

3. Nwogu - Mike Mallory

4. Little - Andy Sisco

5. Moreno - Angel Guzman.

I take it you weren't a big fan other than Howard.

[Bertz]

So yeah, I really really like this draft class.

 

- Howard wasn't my guy, but is a great pick. He is someone who in a normal year would be a top 10 talent. He wasn't because A) this was an exceptionally strong draft and B) because of the lack of looks this spring college guys with longer track records all understandably got moved up the board

 

- Carraway was arguably the best reliever in the draft, in advance of a season that will feature ~15 man bullpens. You are sacrificing some upside for just a reliever, but they grabbed plenty of upside later

 

- Nwogu is boom or bust, but he could be so so so fun. The system desperately needed some power and he provides it. And coming from a big time college program I'm guessing they've got all kinds of analytics on him. I'm also assuming he'll end up in center rather than left... my understanding is that if you have the requisite athleticism center is actually the easiest from a skill perspective. So while it sounds like Nwogu's a bit of a doofus out there currently, he should be able to make it work with more reps and coaching. I mean isn't the list of fast guys who couldn't eventually make CF work basically Carl Crawford?

 

- Little's probably less exciting than the 105 MPH headlines, but he's exciting. I have no problem with the Cubs being the team that corners the market on LH velocity

 

- If we had had skimped elsewhere to pay for Moreno I'd have been a little pissed, but getting him in the fifth while generally playing the draft straight is super exciting. Good arm to add to our decent stock at the lower levels

 

One of the other things I like about this draft is I think these guys are better suited than a lot of prospects would be to there not being a minor league season. Carraway is obviously going to be on the 50 man roster and part of the bullpen taxi squad. Nwogu and Little have mechanical issues to work on. Howard and Moreno as HS guys likely wouldn't get into real games until next year anyways. I'm sure it wasn't the primary consideration when picking them, but it's a nice bonus.

 

Also agreed on the viewer experience piece. It sucks because I liked this A LOT more. Because it was shorter it was more digestable, and I liked that essentially everyone picked had a real scouting report. Obviously the reasons for the draft being shortened are gross and nefarious, but the result is admittedly kind of nice.

[craig]

Not to belabor, but I think Addison Russell is actually maybe a good comp, in a lot of ways. If only that comp wasn't so un-helpful now, because it brings to mind all of the negative: abuser, drunk, dumb, can't hit

 

But comp how Russell was perceived as a young prospect: people projected him to become a good hitter for average, a good hitter for power, and to have excellent defense. I think that's the optimistic projection for Howard as well. If Howard is under consideration to be a top-5 top-10 prospect in all of baseball in two years, we won't be complaining.

 

I think Russell-on-defense might be an excellent comp in other ways. Russell wasn't fast, never seemed flashy, and never had the "WOW" arm of a Dunston or Baez. Yet Russell was SO smooth and economical, no wasted movement, so quick to transition the ball from glove to throw; he was a really good/clean/simple/effective defender. That seems similar to the scouting profile I'm kind of perceiving for Howard.

 

I wonder if Russell isn't also a kinda decent comp in regards to projected power? Russell was projected to have good power.... for a shortstop. He was never scouted as having Bryant, Soler, Schwarber, Baez or Ryan Harvey power. Power was good, not great; and part of the projection was that his hitting for contact would be pretty good such that he'd be able to get to his power....

 

I'm getting the sense that Howard is maybe kinda like that? They project he'll possibly/probably grow into some power, and maybe have decent effective power.... for a shortstop; and because potential bat-to-ball skill might get to the power he does have.

[craig]

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-recap/

 

It’s a good read. Sounds like the Orioles were hoping for Bitsko after going with Kjerstad at 2. Will be interesting to see how the Red Sox play things today with all that savings.

 

Cal or anybody, fangraphs references the Cubs strength program having helped Brennan Davis, Benny Rodriquez, and Cole Roederer.

 

Who is Benny Rodriquez?

[Tim]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-recap/

 

It’s a good read. Sounds like the Orioles were hoping for Bitsko after going with Kjerstad at 2. Will be interesting to see how the Red Sox play things today with all that savings.

 

Cal or anybody, fangraphs references the Cubs strength program having helped Brennan Davis, Benny Rodriquez, and Cole Roederer.

 

Who is Benny Rodriquez?

lol - I had the exact same thought when I read that.

[Regular Show]

https://mobile.twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1271473857459826688

Yeah, most of the talented juniors will end up going back to school. I expect us to sign a few talented seniors.

 

RHP John McMillon is a talented arm and throws really hard. Also probably ends up being a reliever.

[Regular Show]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-recap/

 

It’s a good read. Sounds like the Orioles were hoping for Bitsko after going with Kjerstad at 2. Will be interesting to see how the Red Sox play things today with all that savings.

 

Cal or anybody, fangraphs references the Cubs strength program having helped Brennan Davis, Benny Rodriquez, and Cole Roederer.

 

Who is Benny Rodriquez?

lol - I had the exact same thought when I read that.

 

Benjamin Rodriguez

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=675851

 

I'm assuming Eric is referring to this guy in our system. Just accidentally replaced the 'g' with a 'q' I think. I don't know of a "Benny Rodriquez"...

[Tim]

 

Cal or anybody, fangraphs references the Cubs strength program having helped Brennan Davis, Benny Rodriquez, and Cole Roederer.

 

Who is Benny Rodriquez?

lol - I had the exact same thought when I read that.

 

Benjamin Rodriguez

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=675851

 

I'm assuming Eric is referring to this guy in our system. Just accidentally replaced the 'g' with a 'q' I think. I don't know of a "Benny Rodriquez"...

That's...someone I had not paid any attention to whatsoever.

[Regular Show]

The Indians drafted pitcher Logan Allen. They already have a pitching prospect named Logan Allen. That won't be confusing.

Lol

Edited June 12, 2020 by Regular Show

[craig]

1. Howard - Addison Russell (pre-abuse? Or as Russell was perceived while a rising prospect?)

2. Burl - LH Maples?

3. Nwogu - Mike Mallory

4. Little - Andy Sisco

5. Moreno - Angel Guzman.

I take it you weren't a big fan other than Howard.

 

Heh heh, just trying to think of Cubs I remember, the types of profiles they seemed to have when drafted, and the possibilities associated. Everybody loved Russell. Maples, big arm, big breaking ball, smart, good athlete, high ceiling. mallory is going way back, but Hendry had bunches of Dave Winfield comps for him when he picked him. Andy Sisco might be the next Randy Johnson. Angel Guzman was a fantastic prospect for a while, without being a massive Zambrano guy when young; and while his fastball ended up being really good and fast when healthy, as a young guy he wasn't a power guy, so in that sense Moreno seems like a guy who might start without much velocity, but might project into a really good fastball in time, as with Guzman. :):) .

 

I like the draft fine, who am I to judge?

1. Unlike so many Cubs drafts over the last ten years where our picks were often way out of line with mainstream media rankings, Howard, Burl, and Nwogu all seemed well within the mainstream in terms of overall prospect value . (I know, who cares about the rankings, the team knows way more and has more research. Yet all of the Cubs research and analytics genius didn't really vindicate picking Zastrysny and Stinnett and Little and Arriel Prieto etc. where they were picked....)

 

2. I think there is a refreshing self-confidence, perhaps even arrogance, regarding their analytics, pitch-lab/hit-lab, and their development possibilities. Two relievers with loud tools, big arms but limited repertoires and massive wildness issues. I assume they have a self-confidence to pitch-lab fix the wildness and find Little some grip and arm-slot that will provide him with a 2nd pitch. Nwogu also seems to have some pretty big tool in his power; are they self-confident from their video-game testing that he's got the inherent tools, and that their hit lab resources can help reshape his swing and transform him into a successful big-league power hitter? So I think it's fun that they seem to have the self-confidence that they can take very unrefined raw talent with pretty big tools and develop those guys into effective major leaguers.

 

In past they drafted a lot of kind of experienced college pitchers with some pitchability and multi-pitch and existent control, etc., but without big arms. (Keegan, Zastryzny, Abbott, Richan, Lange, etc...). So I love getting some big arms, and a big-power guy, outside of round 1.

 

Seems like a more high-ceiling draft talent-wise. (Even if role-wise maybe two relievers don't have the same value-ceiling as guys who might become starters, but talent-wise I like it.) .

[Hrubes20]

Not a bad draft class as all, IMO. Carraway in the 2nd is my least favorite pick, but he probably allows for a tiny bit of signing bonus flexibility for Howard, Moreno, and maybe Little. The best part of the draft for me is that there is upside with every one of these picks. Nothing better for a prospectphile than to have guys in the system to dream on.

[craig]

 

Cal or anybody, fangraphs references the Cubs strength program having helped Brennan Davis, Benny Rodriquez, and Cole Roederer.

 

Who is Benny Rodriquez?

lol - I had the exact same thought when I read that.

 

Benjamin Rodriguez

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=675851

 

I'm assuming Eric is referring to this guy in our system. Just accidentally replaced the 'g' with a 'q' I think. I don't know of a "Benny Rodriquez"...

 

That benjamin is a pitcher. Maybe he's strengthened a ton and has gone from 82 to 96 or something. But it seems maybe kinda unexpected to include a pitcher in the middle of of a line about strength-program hitters?

[Regular Show]

I really don't think comping Ed Howard to Addison Russell works conceptually and think people are just doing it because they are/were highly-rated Cubs SS prospects and because they're Black...

 

Addison had these big, broad shoulders and quick explosive hands and scouts expected lots of power. I think Ed Howard has a better approach and should hit for a better average, but less power (should get stronger though). Addison was really good on defense and I don't think Ed Howard reaches that level.

 

I think that's a lazy comp.

 

And I get you guys wanting to do comps, but the point of the exercise is to compare prospects to a modern-day player to help inform other people. You guys are comping people to Angel Guzman and Andy Sisco and Orlando Cabrera and others? I don't even remember the tool grades and body types for these players. The further back you go the harder it is for younger people to understand the comp.

[Post Count Padder]

So it seems like we did pretty well? Early to tell but some high upside prospects and a couple power arms to energize the system. Edited June 12, 2020 by Post Count Padder

[Post Count Padder]

1. Howard - Addison Russell (pre-abuse? Or as Russell was perceived while a rising prospect?)

2. Burl - LH Maples?

3. Nwogu - Mike Mallory

4. Little - Andy Sisco

5. Moreno - Angel Guzman.

Insert Obi Wan "that's a name I haven't heard in a long time" gif

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB.com: What was your impression of the Cubs’ staff and front office from your side of the computer screen during their Zoom call with you?

BC: “Yeah, I had a really good Zoom call with the Cubs early on. We knew, hearing from my advisor, I knew that they were just a top-notch organization. Not only in the way they go about their business, but being ahead of the curve with technology and data and things like that. So, I knew that that was going to be a good fit. And we didn’t know until a couple hours ago that that was where I was going to end up, but just being able to go through those Zoom calls and get that kind of information and get a good feel for organizations like that is something that maybe doesn’t happen in a normal Draft year, but since we had all this time, I was able to do that and I said it earlier, but I think it’s a great fit. I’m super excited to be a part of their organization.”

 

MLB.com: Did you feel like the Cubs’ conversation with you was different than the way other teams approach it?

BC: “Yeah, I definitely got a different feel with each individual organization. They were one that was really early on. Right as they opened things back up, I set up the call with them — like my first or second call. So, I really got a good feel for them early on. It’s a lot of fun getting on a Zoom call and maybe being able to go through different things that’s not just an interview process, where you’re getting asked questions and then whenever they’re done, you hang up. It felt like a solid conversation and they were going through things that have been key to my game and my improvement as a player, whether it was the technology side of things or being ahead of the curve with looking at data when they make their choices. So, yeah, it’s a great fit.”

 

https://bastian.mlblogs.com/i-think-its-a-great-fit-i-m-super-excited-q-a-with-burl-carraway-6f924b2307a

[craig]

“He’s pretty special,” Heefner said. “He legitimately has two pitches that are borderline unhittable. The fastball and the curveball. It’s shocking that he didn’t go higher than he did, because [highlight=yellow]with the Trackman data they have today, where you can compare guys to everybody across the country, I’ve heard several organizations say that his fastball and his breaking ball graded out the best in the whole Draft[/highlight].”