2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

[craig]

Interesting that Moreno went that far over; and Burl that far under. By my numbers, *if* they wanted to, they could still go almost $200K over on Nwogu. Not sure there should be any need to do that, but my math, *if* he signs for straight slot, they'll be somewhat below their overage max.

 

I hadn't anticipated that Moreno would draw that much, he's only a little behind Burl.

 

I'm hoping he works out well. It's seemed the cubs haven't really hit on their previous around-a-million-or-more HS superslot pitchers: Cease got them a sliver of mediocre Quintana, so I guess that's the biggest success. But other than Cease, Sands was nothing, Steele is a wildman (although he may still have a chance), Hudson didn't work, and Estrada hasn't looked like a win (although he's still got time.) . Hopefully they're due for one of those to work out. (Franklin didn't get paid as much, but early returns are favorable for him...) .

[craig]

Cal, the first reports on undrafted guys had us signing a teenage Puerto Rican pitcher who'd supposedly touched 94. But I'm not sure I've subsequently seen him included in listings of Cubs NDFA. Any info on that? Are we sure that the Cubs actually did sign him, or is that maybe not so clear? Or perhaps they agreed, but he's still home in Puerto Rico, so they need to do physical before there will actually be a formal, listable signing?

 

Perhaps the Puerto Rican pitcher and the JC hitter might never get to be as good as the senior signs, but I'm kind of more interested in those two teenagers, because they have more time to develop and will perhaps end up actually being major-league prospects, rather than just organizational roster-fillers. So I hope they really do have that guy.

[Tim]

Cal, the first reports on undrafted guys had us signing a teenage Puerto Rican pitcher who'd supposedly touched 94. But I'm not sure I've subsequently seen him included in listings of Cubs NDFA. Any info on that? Are we sure that the Cubs actually did sign him, or is that maybe not so clear? Or perhaps they agreed, but he's still home in Puerto Rico, so they need to do physical before there will actually be a formal, listable signing?

 

Perhaps the Puerto Rican pitcher and the JC hitter might never get to be as good as the senior signs, but I'm kind of more interested in those two teenagers, because they have more time to develop and will perhaps end up actually being major-league prospects, rather than just organizational roster-fillers. So I hope they really do have that guy.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CBdJFnEh__6/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

 

He says he signed.

[craig]

Thanks, Tim. That's good.

[Named After Maddux]

Callis mentioned Little as a guy other teams could target in a trade immediately

Did he say this on the MLB Pipeline podcast? Would Luke Little be eligible to be traded? I thought they moved the eligibility date to the day after the World Series ended for recent draft picks. That’s interesting.

[craig]

That seems like an odd input by Callis. Little is obviously a development/make-over project. Doesn't exactly profile as what I'd caricature as a trade-oriented prospect, or as a ready-to-help-soon guy. Any talented prospect with developmental potential obviously has potential trade value, but I don't really see why that would be any more true or worth mentioning for Little than for any other raw prospect.

 

Hopefully he'll thrive in the Cubs developmental process and perform at a level that makes other teams want him.

 

I'm actually curious what developmental plan the cubs will have for him. Obviously the natural media input for any guy who throws hard, but doesn't have present control of an arsenal, is to say "relief". And that seems like an obvious thing for Little. (If you get an effective relief pitcher out of a 4th round pick, that's a win to get ANYTHING productive.) . But I do wonder whether that's necessarily what the Cubs will COMMIT to initially?

 

I wonder if they'll track him for rotation for at least his first season or two? And if he can hold his velocity, improve his slider, and have some kind of not-necessarily-bad changeup, whether they might not give him the opportunity to develop as a starter for at least a while? Odds are pretty remote, I realize; But sometimes teams who end up having success have some unlikely prospects work out in unexpectedly good ways. And we will need rotations pitchers, hopefully without having to average $18M per starter.

[CoolHandLuke]

Them why did they just recently pass on him for 3 or 4 rounds?

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“They talked about that a little bit in that Zoom call,” Carraway said. “It was really cool that they were honest about that — and the fact that they were excited that this was going to be the group that (could) turn it around. I’m excited to be a part of the change. We’re going to be really good pitchers. We’re going to develop really well in their system. I talked with them a lot — even leading up to the draft — and it seems like they really know what they’re doing. I trust them fully. And I think we’re going to get this thing going pretty good here.”

 

Carraway, who has never been to Wrigley Field, began to understand the big-market experience from the moment the Cubs made him the No. 51 pick on June 11. Fans love prospects, but Cubs fans have a particular interest in the draft and the farm system, and it immediately showed up on Twitter and Instagram.

 

“My phone just started blowing up,” Carraway said. “It was just really cool. For the most part, when you get that kind of publicity, sometimes it can be pretty negative. But I’ve been pretty overwhelmed — the majority of things that I see are very positive. I know that it’s a great fan base to play for. I can’t wait to hopefully get to Chicago here pretty soon.

 

Another good article about Burl Carraway. He'll definitely be a part of the 60-man taxi squad.

[craig]

Thanks for Burl, stuff. That guy is a very good interview, very well spoken. Hope he's able to throw enough strikes to be effective in actual pro games and eventually big-league games.

 

But if he's as poised in games and controlled with his pitches as he is poised and controlled in his interviews, he's got a chance to be a big-stage pitcher.

[Regular Show]

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2020/06/25/klawchat-6-25-20/

 

From the latest Klaw chat:

 

Jon: I read that Ed Howard was a possible Top 5 pick but for the HS season being entirely halted and therefore nobody seeing him play this year and a result was a lot of college prospects instead. Any truth to that or just Cubs homer-talk? What’s his ceiling?

 

Keith Law: Extreme homer talk. Arrant nonsense.

 

Dave C: When’s the last time u were as surprised during the draft as the Sox taking Nick York’s this year?

 

Keith Law: Hayden Simpson.

 

Joe: Any undrafted signings stand out to you as maybe being more than just filler?

 

Keith Law: Not really. $20K doesn’t get you a definite prospect. There were some good senior signs, though – Landon Knack (Dodgers, second round) stood out as one.

Edited July 9, 2020 by Regular Show

[craig]

Thanks, Tom, that was a really good interview. More technical. Obviously a well-spoken guy who's conversant with pitch-lab and analytics concepts, and is happy to benefit from insights. Think that might be a great fit.

 

I was particularly encouraged by his interest in developing a slider, as a pitch with more side-to-side movement and a pitch that's easier to throw for strikes than the big curveball.

 

Having good spin and a big curveball is good; but the big curveball is probably the hardest pitch in baseball to throw for strikes. Living as a two-pitch fastball-curve guy may work great on days the curve is clicking.

 

But I think a lot of days big-league hitters will spit on the curve, sit on the fastball, and you'll be walking guys, pitching from behind, and the only strike you can throw is fastball to guys sitting fastball. Who needs a garbage-can to sit fastball on days when a fastball-curve pitcher can't throw his curve for a strike?

 

So *IF* Burl could hypothetically come up with something else he can get over, whether that be slider or cutter or whatever, it could help him a ton. Glad he realizes that and is looking towards figuring out something else that could work for him.

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Not surprised by how much Austin Martin got and he might end up being the best player from this draft when we look back on it. I'm very surprised by how much Nick Yorke got as an unusual 1st-rounder... I was thinking maybe $2 mil or less as his signing bonus. I think Boston could've spent the savings on a better prospect in the 3rd round.

 

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So, we know what is going on with Miami and their draft picks. It's not a bad idea actually since there is no minor league season this year anyway. I believe I read Carter Baumler is getting $1.5 mil from Baltimore so that leaves only Nwogu left. Not sure what is going on with that negotiation or what the holdup is...

 

I'm not too concerned or anything, but something feels off.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

They could’ve given Nwogu $190,880 more before hitting their 5% overage.

[Named After Maddux]

 

They could’ve given Nwogu $190,880 more before hitting their 5% overage.

I wonder if that was part of the delay compared to the other picks. At some point there was just too much money on the table for a deal to not happen (outside of serious medical issues).

 

Also I noticed the Cubs have signed 11 NDFAs for (likely) a total of $220k and they “saved” just under that amount from what they could have spent under the 5% overage limit in the draft. Hopefully not related.

[craig]

NO idea why Nwogu took that long for an ordinary slot-agreement pick. My guess is that it was just something procedural, travel related, getting the physical, something like that. Michigan had pretty tight Covid travel restrictions, I think. And Arizona has been pretty hot for a while. With no minor-league camp anyway for Nwogu, probably no hurry to get the actual physical passed and the contract signed.

 

The more unfavorable paranoid possibility is that there were some red flags in his physical.

[CaliforniaRaisin]