2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

[Bertz]

Keith Law

 

68. Jordan Nwogu, OF, Michigan, Age: 21

 

Nwogu is one of the higher-upside athletes in the college class this year, a plus runner with plus raw power, but in many ways is still raw like a high school prospect. He has a very wide setup at the plate with no stride, which doesn’t help at all with pitch recognition, so he rakes against fastballs and struggles with spin. He’s fast enough for center field but doesn’t have the instincts or arm for it, and almost certainly has to play left. Ultimately his value is in his bat, where he has bat speed and strength but just has to pick up secondary stuff far better in the future. Perhaps narrowing his stance and giving him some forward momentum will help. He’s shown a willingness to walk and there’s at least 20/20 potential here if he gets to the power.

 

Time for Justin Stone to earn that paycheck

[Regular Show]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I love the Jordan Nwogu pick. Remember when the poor kid dropped the fly ball against UCLA in the Supers last year but this is great:

 

 

The Red Sox just drafted Brian Dopirak.

[Bertz]

I love the Jordan Nwogu pick. Remember when the poor kid dropped the fly ball against UCLA in the Supers last year but this is great:

 

 

The Red Sox just drafted Brian Dopirak.

 

There's a school of thought that a guy's top end exit velo is a good proxy for their offensive upside. And 110 MPH is pretty special.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

3rd rounder - Jordan Nwogu:

 

Athletic: 68

BA: 197

ESPN: 141 (40 FV)

FG: 191 (35+ FV)

MLB: 108

 

Athletic: See Bertz' post above

 

BA:

 

Jordan Nwogu Michigan OF

 

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 235 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.3

 

A straight-A student in high school, Nwogu had Division I offers as a defensive end/linebacker, but he opted to go to Michigan on an academic scholarship to study computer engineering and play baseball. Nwogu earned a starting role midway through his freshman season and has been Michigan’s leadoff hitter for the past two years. Nwogu still looks like a football player (6-foot-3, 225 pounds) and he has plus-plus raw power and plus speed. Scouts are not all that excited about his funky swing—he gets good weight transfer and has plenty of bat speed, but it’s a very top-hand heavy swing. So far, funky or not, it has been extremely effective. He is a career .334/.430/.545 hitter for the Wolverines and his ability to control the strike zone has improved dramatically over his collegiate career. Nwogu’s defense was rough as a freshman, but he has steadily improved. He likely ends up in left field thanks to his below-average arm. That’s where he’s mainly played for Michigan, but the Wolverines started to play him in center field this year.

 

FG:

 

TLDR

Big time raw power, a left field fit as more of a plus football-type athlete than baseball. Nwogu is still a bit raw in pitch seletion but has round one potential.

 

MLB:

 

A top-notch student who drew interest from college football programs as an edge rusher, Nwogu opted to stay home in Ann Arbor to play baseball and study computer engineering at Michigan. He was the Wolverines' best offensive performer in 2019, when they surprisingly finished second at the College World Series, and again this spring. One of the most physical players in this year's Draft, he offers more offensive upside than former Michigan outfielder Jordan Brewer, an Astros third-rounder last June. Nwogu packs prodigious strength in his 6-foot-3, 235-pound frame and generates impressive exit velocities, showing the ability to crush fastballs out of any part of any ballpark. He has an unorthodox but quick right-handed swing and his lower half seems out of sync with the rest of his body, but his impressive hand-eye coordination makes it work. He controls the strike zone reasonably well but still has to show he can make adjustments to handle breaking balls and changeups. Nwogu has plus speed and runs the bases aggressively. His quickness doesn't play nearly as well in the outfield, where he doesn't get good jumps and struggles going back on balls. His arm strength has improved in college but is still fringy, so he'll likely wind up in left field after playing center this spring in place of the injured Jesse Franklin.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Keith Law

 

68. Jordan Nwogu, OF, Michigan, Age: 21

 

Nwogu is one of the higher-upside athletes in the college class this year, a plus runner with plus raw power, but in many ways is still raw like a high school prospect. He has a very wide setup at the plate with no stride, which doesn’t help at all with pitch recognition, so he rakes against fastballs and struggles with spin. He’s fast enough for center field but doesn’t have the instincts or arm for it, and almost certainly has to play left. Ultimately his value is in his bat, where he has bat speed and strength but just has to pick up secondary stuff far better in the future. Perhaps narrowing his stance and giving him some forward momentum will help. He’s shown a willingness to walk and there’s at least 20/20 potential here if he gets to the power.

 

Time for Justin Stone to earn that paycheck

 

Wouldn’t no stride theoretically help with pitch recognition since your eye level is less likely to be changing? Not sure I understand that part.

[KingCubsFan]

Keith Law

 

68. Jordan Nwogu, OF, Michigan, Age: 21

 

Nwogu is one of the higher-upside athletes in the college class this year, a plus runner with plus raw power, but in many ways is still raw like a high school prospect. He has a very wide setup at the plate with no stride, which doesn’t help at all with pitch recognition, so he rakes against fastballs and struggles with spin. He’s fast enough for center field but doesn’t have the instincts or arm for it, and almost certainly has to play left. Ultimately his value is in his bat, where he has bat speed and strength but just has to pick up secondary stuff far better in the future. Perhaps narrowing his stance and giving him some forward momentum will help. He’s shown a willingness to walk and there’s at least 20/20 potential here if he gets to the power.

 

Time for Justin Stone to earn that paycheck

 

Wouldn’t no stride theoretically help with pitch recognition since your eye level is less likely to be changing? Not sure I understand that part.

Glad I wasn’t the only one who was confused by Law’s comment.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Cubs just took Mr 105 mph.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Luke Little, LHP, San Jacinto JC (Pasadena, TX)

 

Athletic: NR (only ranked 100 prospects)

BA: 121

ESPN: NR (only ranked 150 prospects)

FG: 149 (35+ FV)

MLB: 166

 

BA:

 

Luke Little San Jacinto (Texas) JC LHP

 

Ht: 6-8 | Wt: 225 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: South Carolina

Age At Draft: 19.8

 

Little is one of the hardest throwers in this year’s draft class, but until this year his wildness was just as notable as his fastball. As a freshman, Little walked more than a batter an inning (while also striking out 17.6 batters per nine). In brief glimpses this spring (nine total innings), he showed vastly improved control, although his delivery is still herky jerky and effortful. Little pitches at 96-97 mph, but has touched 100 at his best. He only made five appearances before San Jacinto’s season ended because he missed a few weeks with a back injury. He made one start before the injury, then pitched in relief four times upon his return. In those five appearances, Little struck out 17, walked three and allowed three hits in nine innings. A massive presence on the mound (6-foot-8, 250 pounds), Little was in better shape as a sophomore and showed better control and command. In part that came from better body control and in part because he synced up his lower half better in his delivery. He also showed a much better feel for locating his above-average 80-83 mph slider. It has less power than may be expected, but it has solid bite, although its spin rates are not exceptional. Little is a South Carolina signee. He would have benefitted from a full season which would have given him time to show his control improvements are sustainable, but a team looking for a power lefty could be enticed by his two-pitch package with the hope that there is more refinement to come.

 

FG:

 

TLDR

Sits 93-97 and hits 99, slider flashes above and he's a 6'8 lefty, but is a relief fit and the command lags well behind in part due to his size, long arms and long arm action.

 

MLB:

 

San Jacinto (Texas) JC has produced 18 big league pitchers, most notably Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, as well as Nationals 2019 first-rounder Jackson Rutledge. The Gators' three best arms -- right-hander Brandon Birdsell and lefties Little and Mitchell Parker -- all could fit in the first five rounds this year. Little tweaked his back after his first start in February and missed four weeks, then came back to make four relief appearances before the season ended early. Little has the highest maximum velocity of any southpaw in the 2020 Draft and created buzz when video surfaced of him hitting 105 mph in an indoor workout in May, though he tends to work at 93-96 in longer outings. He has made progress with his secondary pitches but they still need more work. His low-80s slider is his No. 2 option, and he also has come up with an upper-70s curveball and a nascent changeup. Little has gotten in much better shape this season, dropping 30 pounds from his massive 6-foot-8 frame and doing a better job of repeating his delivery in limited action, though scouts still don't care for his arm action or mechanics. He tallied 86 strikeouts versus 39 walks in 44 1/3 innings in two years at San Jacinto, and it's difficult to project him as more than a reliever who can air out his fastball in short stints. If he doesn't sign this summer, he'll pitch at South Carolina in 2021.

[Tim]

I like the potential of both of the lefties. I'm glad the Cubs have confidence that they can take these power guys to clean up some of the rough spots. Really, they've gone with pretty big upside in all four picks if you value relievers a lot in the modern game.

[Cubswin11]

Keith Law

 

 

 

Time for Justin Stone to earn that paycheck

 

Wouldn’t no stride theoretically help with pitch recognition since your eye level is less likely to be changing? Not sure I understand that part.

Glad I wasn’t the only one who was confused by Law’s comment.

Complete guess. But I’d assume with a wide stance you have to commit earlier to a pitch since your weight is spread out more and can’t adjust as much, where as when you have a narrower stance/leg kick you can adjust the weight a little better to the pitch type if you’re fooled or something. So maybe it isn’t so much pure recognition but more pitch adaptability?

[David]

Keith Law

 

 

 

Time for Justin Stone to earn that paycheck

 

Wouldn’t no stride theoretically help with pitch recognition since your eye level is less likely to be changing? Not sure I understand that part.

Glad I wasn’t the only one who was confused by Law’s comment.

 

In context I think he's trying to say that while you would think it would at least have that benefit, given the fact that his pitch recognition isn't good, it doesn't even have the benefit of that.

 

weird wording regardless.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

5th rounder: Koen Moreno, RHP, Panther Creek HS (Cary, NC)

 

Athletic: NR

BA: 129

ESPN: NR

FG: 233 (35+)

MLB: NR

 

BA:

 

Koen Moreno Panther Creek HS, Cary, N.C. RHP

 

Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 170 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: East Carolina

Age At Draft: 18.9

 

Moreno is one of the more athletic pitchers in the prep class and he also participated in basketball and track at Panther Creek High in Cary, N.C. A 6-foot-2, 170-pound righthander committed to East Carolina, Moreno doesn’t have a ton of innings on his arm and scouts were impressed with the consistent steps forward he made last summer. At East Coast Pro, Moreno threw a fastball in the 87-93 mph range and ticked up to 94 at the Future Stars Series during the fall. He has exceptional feel to naturally spin a breaking ball, but the pitch needs continued refinement to become a plus offering. It shows solid depth and three-quarter shape in the 73-78 mph range, but it’s hittable when he leaves it up and only flashes sharp biting action. Moreno also showed feel for an 81-85 mph changeup that he throws with good arm speed and had swing-and-miss qualities with average or better potential in the future. Moreno is a projection arm in the true sense of the definition, with plenty of room remaining on a lean frame, athleticism that should allow him to make big strides in the future and an innate feel for spinning a baseball. Scouts didn’t see him pitch much at all this spring with a shortened 2020 season, but he was a candidate to take a step forward stuff-wise. It wouldn’t be surprising for a team to bet on his upside now in the 3-5 round range—if he makes it to East Carolina he could easily become a top-three round talent.

 

[Bertz]

Assuming they sign everyone I horsefeathering love this draft

[Cubswin11]

Looking forward to what we do in UDFA. Since we’re one of only like 3 teams paying minor leaguers more I’d assume we are at an advantage to get guys. Also, since we’re paying horsefeathering Almora like $1.7 mil this year, they should be willing to sign a bunch of dudes who only cost 20K.

[Cubswin11]

[Cubswin11]

[toonsterwu]

Assuming they sign everyone I horsefeathering love this draft

 

Hope you are right. I love Howard, so if he pans out, that's all that will really matter. I like Carraway just fine, although the idea that he's safe overshadows that there's still some risk on him developing into a top late inning arm. Nwogu's bat is really going to have play up. Little's a big guy with a big frame with mechanical worts. I know, I defended Bryan Hudson's developmental time several years ago, so calling that out is a bit hypocritical, but my point isn't that everything's going south ... we took two pen arms and a LF whose bat has to really play but most reports indicate he still struggles recognizing breaking stuff. It could work out well, but it is a fairly risky draft. I am intrigued with Moreno ... makes me roughly think of Kohl Franklin a few years back. At the end of the day, this draft is about Howard. If he develops, it's all good.

 

____

 

I do like the 5 round draft a lot more than I thought I would. If MLB ever hopes of making the draft a big thing (it'll never be as big as the NBA or NFL draft as college and prep baseball aren't followed as heavily as CBB and CFB), the shorter draft does help as the focus is more on college guys that they can showcase a bit more. It also creates a higher likelihood of picks being traded at a higher level at some point. Dunno, thought I'd hate it, but it's not bad.

 

____

 

At first glance, I really like the Dodgers and Nationals drafts. Nationals keep stacking power arms in their system, and while diversity is nice, they need as many options as possible to eventually start replacing their starters. I think Beeter is going to be one of the more intriguing arms to follow out of this draft. If that stuff holds up ...

 

____

 

Very surprised Andrew Abbott didn't get picked at all. The gap between Carraway and Abbott isn't that great (although the idea of Abbott as a late inning arm is not something I really bought). Hope he goes back to UVA ... could really set UVA up as one of the favorites next year.

 

____

 

going to be curious on some guys decisions on UDFA or back to college.

[CubsWin]

And NOW, it's time to play everyone's favorite game show: Who's... Your... Comp!

 

1. Ed Howard - Barry Larkin

 

2. Burl Carraway - Mark Langston (if he was 2 inches shorter and never a starter)

 

3. David Nwogu - Glenallen Hill

 

4. Luke Little - A left-handed Dillon Maples

 

5. Koen Moreno - C.J. Edwards with a lower metabolism

Edited June 12, 2020 by CubsWin

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Cubswin11]

And NOW, it's time to play everyone's favorite game show: Who's... Your... Comp!

 

1. Ed Howard - Barry Larkin

 

2. Burl Carraway - Mark Langston (if he was 2 inches shorter and never a starter)

 

3. David Nwogu - Glenallen Hill

 

4. Luke Little - A left-handed Dillon Maples

 

5. Koen Moreno - C.J. Edwards with a lower metabolism

 

1.Howard- Nick Ahmed/Marcus Semien/Elvis Andrus

 

2. Carraway- Felipe Vazquez (forgot about the federal crimes)/left handed Seth Lugo

 

3. Nwogu- Puig/Avi Garcia/Franmil/Grichuk

 

4. Little- Justin Wilson/Jake Diekman

 

5. Moreno- Wacha/Roark/Porcello/Fiers/Anibal Sanchez/poor mans Nola

Edited June 12, 2020 by Cubswin11

[Regular Show]

I really like what I've seen so far. He's a 3-sport athlete apparently.

[David]

can we find some other all around solid SS comp instead of larkin again

 

but not nick ahmed either

[Regular Show]

I've been thinking about a comp for Ed Howard...

 

I know scouts don't like to do cross race comps, but I would comp Ed Howard to Trevor Story. I think that kind of works? Maybe less power at his peak. Similar builds and tools.

 

I believe his upside is similar to Trevor Story, but I'll try to see if there is a better comp for him.