Cubs Zips and Other Projections

[Cubswin11]

[Sammy Sofa]

I think this is the year Heymorapp really busts out.

[squally1313]

40.7 in total WAR, with some surprising numbers in there both ways.

 

38.1 for the Brewers, 35.9 for the Cardinals.

[Cubswin11]

So going off of Zips for the 4 contending division teams, team WAR totals are:

 

Cubs- 40.7

Cardinals- 36

Brewers- 38.1

Reds- 35.6 (without Nick)

[Andy]

40.7 in total WAR, with some surprising numbers in there both ways.

 

38.1 for the Brewers, 35.9 for the Cardinals.

So they have us as the division favorite, again. What could go wrong

[Cubswin11]

I think this is the year Heymorapp really busts out.

I'll take the over if Happ is really going to get 75-80% of the starts there.

[Bertz]

That's a much rosier projection compared to Steamer, which is what's currently powering Fangraphs' projections.

 

It looks like Steamer likes Kyle Schwarber a good bit more, while ZiPS likes Contreras, Baez, and Hendricks by about a full win each. Steamer is much less likely to believe guys are FIP beaters and is all in on catcher framing, so Kyle and Willson make sense. I'm curious why they're so different on Javy though.

[17 Seconds]

steamer prediction for the 2020 cubs: cleveland

[ConstableRabbit]

I’ll take the under on 2.0 fWAR projected for Addison Russell on the Cubs this season. Wtf?

[Bertz]

Eyeballing it, it looks like on the main guys other than Contreras and Hendricks it's pretty in line with the current projections on FG. It's a little higher on the depth guys like Bote and Vic as well.

 

The system does not like the middle of our rotation, but it's very generous to the depth. For the pen,

 

Kimbrel

Jeffress

Sadler

Wieck

Wick

Morrow

Maples

Tepera

Megill

 

All project to have league average or better ERAs next year. Kimbrel, Jeffress, Wieck, and Morrow (I know) all project to be quite good.

 

On the rotation, Cory Abbott already projects as a solid #5 starter right now, which is great, though not enough to make up for the tepid projections for Q and Lester.

[UMFan83]

I’ll take the under on 2.0 fWAR projected for Addison Russell on the Cubs this season. Wtf?

 

Don't they usually just include projections for FAs who havent signed yet under their old teams?

[squally1313]

Throwing a Ronny Cedeno comp on Hoerner seems a little cruel.

[ConstableRabbit]

I’ll take the under on 2.0 fWAR projected for Addison Russell on the Cubs this season. Wtf?

 

Don't they usually just include projections for FAs who havent signed yet under their old teams?

Yes but I still thought it was funny.

[Cubswin11]

I’ll say,

 

Over (>.3) : KB, Willy/Vic, CF (if Happ gets at least 75% of the starts), Q, 2B

 

Push (within .3) : Yu, Hendricks, Lester, Schwarbs, RF, Bullpen, 5th starter, Javy

 

Under (<.3): Rizzo

 

Edit: This is off the graphic showing the WAR and not the article spreadsheet which seems to differ a bit (graphic has Rizzo 4.7, spreadsheet 4.3, as an example).

[17 Seconds]

steamer prediction for the 2020 cubs: cleveland

 

like cleveland steamer, get it

[Bertz]

FWIW PECOTA released their standings today and have the Cubs winning WC2 at 85 wins. They've also added some fun features like this for win distribution:

 

 

Ultimately I still think PECOTA is broken, for instance they have Richard Gallardo projected for more WAR than Jon Lester this year, but Jonathan Judge took it over and is a really smart guy. They made a number of under the hood changes that should start bringing it more in line quality wise with what's on FG, but with a completely different methodology. That will be a valuable extra perspective.

[CubinNY]

FWIW PECOTA released their standings today and have the Cubs winning WC2 at 85 wins. They've also added some fun features like this for win distribution:

 

 

Ultimately I still think PECOTA is broken, for instance they have Richard Gallardo projected for more WAR than Jon Lester this year, but Jonathan Judge took it over and is a really smart guy. They made a number of under the hood changes that should start bringing it more in line quality wise with what's on FG, but with a completely different methodology. That will be a valuable extra perspective.

The Cubs and Cards have some extremely long tails; St. Louis on the negative end.

[Cubswin11]

PECOTA and BP are complete dog horsefeathers

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I'm really impressed with how Rizzo's looked in the handful projections I've seen, great player

[PittCub]

Bryant at 4.1 WAR seems fair but getting him back to 6+ would go a long way towards a division title.

[Backtobanks]

Bryant at 4.1 WAR seems fair but getting him back to 6+ would go a long way towards a division title.

 

4.1 WAR as a leadoff man with un less juiced ball is about all we might expect.

[The SABR Gamer]

Bryant at 4.1 WAR seems fair but getting him back to 6+ would go a long way towards a division title.

 

4.1 WAR as a leadoff man with un less juiced ball is about all we might expect.

 

WAR doesn't care where you bat in the order and the de-juiced ball applies to everyone, not just Bryant.

[David]

Bryant at 4.1 WAR seems fair but getting him back to 6+ would go a long way towards a division title.

 

4.1 WAR as a leadoff man with un less juiced ball is about all we might expect.

 

WAR doesn't care where you bat in the order and the de-juiced ball applies to everyone, not just Bryant.

 

if anything, you could argue that hitting leadoff would allow him to accrue SLIGHTLY more WAR by function of the marginally higher plate appearances/opportunities. it's fairly negligible compared to his previous spot in the order, of course.

 

and that's without even getting into the juiced ball part, where it's arguable that the juiced ball affected different players in different ways and may have actually hurt some players more than it helped them relative to the rest of the league.

[PittCub]

Somewhat sure a 4 WAR projection from ZiPs off a two year run that would average out to 3-3.5 is the system saying he's amazing at baseball rather than anything negative

 

Certainly. I wasn't saying it isn't for the record. More so, getting a fully healthy Bryant, and thus 6+ WAR, would go a long way towards division title.