2020 roster

[Cubswin11]

I could see us being in on him for bargain bin shopping for contact. I’d prefer Duffy to him though if we are going this route.

 

[Cubswin11]

If he’s essentially free he’s a worthwhile add as a last bench piece type

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Duffy hasn’t played anywhere but 3b since 2016 and had a sub-.300 wOBA from the right side. I’m not sure what purpose he serves outside of maybe being the aldi-brand version of Bote after Bote gets traded.

[Tryptamine]

If I'm moving Contreras to Toronto, Simeon Woods-Richardson is a must. Super high on him and think he's a top 50 guy by the end of 2020

[minnesotacubsfan]

i'm not really ready to let go of Willson

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2019/12/05/report-houston-astros-interested-in-willson-contreras/

[sneakypower]

this offseason is shaping up to be a lot of fun

 

"hm we weren't quite able to make the playoffs, so what do we need to do?

ok first, let's get a lot worse at the catcher position..."

[Transmogrified Tiger]

this offseason is shaping up to be a lot of fun

 

"hm we weren't quite able to make the playoffs, so what do we need to do?

ok first, let's get a lot worse at the catcher position..."

 

Last year's catching position was worth ~3 wins, maybe a run or two more depending on how exactly you count Contreras and Caratini's time away from C. The right external addition paired with Caratini could absolutely produce similarly. Heck Jason Castro is a free agent and him and Caratini repeating 2019 is basically it right there. If you can get more value from Contreras in trade than you give up to sign Castro or get a similar player, then you get better.

[sneakypower]

yeah a lower total because Contreras hit the DL and we relied on bad catchers we assumed would easily replace his production

 

but let's fix a hard cap on what we'll get at the catcher position by starting Jason Castro instead of a 27yo allstar who makes $4m and was our 3rd best bat , comfortable that marginal talents like Daniel Descalso or your catcher filler never collapse and crater the offense

[Cubswin11]

yeah a lower total because Contreras hit the DL and we relied on bad catchers we assumed would easily replace his production

 

but let's fix a hard cap on what we'll get at the catcher position by starting Jason Castro instead of a 27yo allstar who makes $4m and was our 3rd best bat , comfortable that marginal talents like Daniel Descalso or your catcher filler never collapse and crater the offense

Contreras has hit the DL the last 3 years, or at least should’ve in 2018 when he completely died offensively and something was wrong. I think Contreras only playing 115-125 games (whether because of extra rest/maintenance to avoid injury or because he gets hurt) is something you have to bake in to projecting him moving forward.

[sneakypower]

he's top 5 in PA during that timeframe

 

alright i can just assume he said or did something unforgivable that i completely missed to see such a strange overwhelming desperation to cast him off

[sneakypower]

you know what our offense has gotten to be just too good, let's immediately correct that by getting rid of the guy leading his position in wOBA the last 3 years

[Cubswin11]

he's top 5 in PA during that timeframe

 

alright i can just assume he said or did something unforgivable that i completely missed to see such a strange overwhelming desperation to cast him off

I don’t think anybody just wants to cast him off. The thought is he’s our 2nd most valuable offensive trade piece and most easy to replace his value without having to go spend crazy money/do another trade we can essentially be buying and selling at the same time. As TT showed Vic+Castro platoon probably gives us similar value plus we get whatever good stuff we get in a trade for him. I’m more than fine keeping him, but think it makes plenty of sense to move him now and I’m pretty confident they won’t move him unless it’s for a package that’s pretty good.

 

There’s also the whole game calling, framing, defense thing. Maybe they just don’t like what Willy does there and don’t want it anymore and even for as good as the offense is they feel he’s giving up a lot back with all that.

[sneakypower]

I’m pretty confident they won’t move him unless it’s for a package that’s pretty good.

that's awful kind.

 

There’s also the whole game calling, framing, defense thing. Maybe they just don’t like what Willy does there and don’t want it anymore and even for as good as the offense is they feel he’s giving up a lot back with all that.

that's coachable and really wildly variable, hard to quantify; his offensive output and upside isn't

 

i don't know how you can uncritically accept there's like a 8 win difference in framing between Contreras and Grandal last 3 years, which is what this all seems to stem from

[Cubswin11]

I’m pretty confident they won’t move him unless it’s for a package that’s pretty good.

that's awful kind.

We came out perfectly fine on those trades. It’s Score listeners and call in idiots who think they were massive mistakes. It’s complete hindsight and revisionist history to think otherwise. Eloy is going to struggle to be a 2 win player and Q very well could give us more WAR as a Cub than Eloy will put up for the White Sox, we got a WS for Gleyber and he was a player in A ball at the time, Jorge was worth 0 WAR the two years before this year and Davis got us to a NLCS and there was nowhere to play Jorge.

Edited December 5, 2019 by Cubswin11

[Transmogrified Tiger]

i don't know how you can uncritically accept there's like a 8 win difference in framing between Contreras and Grandal last 3 years, which is what this all seems to stem from

 

Catchers with Grandal and Contreras' workload receive ~8000 pitches a year. Even if we throw out 90% of pitches as unimpacted by framing and say that the difference between the best and worst in that remainder is like 20%, that's still ~160 calls a year one is getting that the other isn't. Is it really so hard to think at the extreme ends of the spectrum(and when we talk about Grandal v. Contreras that's what we're talking about) that magnitude can add up to multiple wins? If you want to quibble with the exact degree that Contreras or any alternative is good/bad that's fine(that's what message boards are for!), but scoffing that the very idea that the Cubs could be better off without Contreras is closer to an uncritical rejection of framing as a potential source of value.

[David]

that's awful kind.

 

 

oh we're gonna do this?

[David]

i don't know how you can uncritically accept there's like a 8 win difference in framing between Contreras and Grandal last 3 years, which is what this all seems to stem from

 

Catchers with Grandal and Contreras' workload receive ~8000 pitches a year. Even if we throw out 90% of pitches as unimpacted by framing and say that the difference between the best and worst in that remainder is like 20%, that's still ~160 calls a year one is getting that the other isn't. Is it really so hard to think at the extreme ends of the spectrum(and when we talk about Grandal v. Contreras that's what we're talking about) that magnitude can add up to multiple wins? If you want to quibble with the exact degree that Contreras or any alternative is good/bad that's fine(that's what message boards are for!), but scoffing that the very idea that the Cubs could be better off without Contreras is closer to an uncritical rejection of framing as a potential source of value.

 

Pretty much this. I'm as skeptical as anyone about what the actual impact of framing pans out to be, barring extremes. But these are the extremes and I definitely think there's a significant and tangible difference.

 

That said, with the Grandal option off the table, I think I'm fine taking the trade off with Contreras and keeping him. Depends on the return, obviously, but if it isn't good, I'm not about shipping him off just for something decent in the name of getting a good framer in there.

[Bertz]

IMO the Contreras trade is more about how solid Vic is and the prospect of getting some ML ready young pitching than it is about any deficiency of Willson's. Here are the Steamer projected WAR/450 values for each guy assuming neutral defense:

 

Willson - 2.6

Vic - 2.0

Castro - 1.7

 

Because catchers have limited PT, you're basically looking at 450 PAs of your primary guy and 225 of your backup in a typical year, so Willson+Vic projects at 3.6 WAR and Vic+Castro at 2.8. We're talking about roughly a win of difference even when assuming that framing is complete hokum. If we were an AL team that could DH him and squeeze out another 100 PAs it may be different, but as is the dropoff looks small enough to be worth nabbing a few fun young pitchers.

[Backtobanks]

IMO the Contreras trade is more about how solid Vic is and the prospect of getting some ML ready young pitching than it is about any deficiency of Willson's. Here are the Steamer projected WAR/450 values for each guy assuming neutral defense:

 

Willson - 2.6

Vic - 2.0

Castro - 1.7

 

Because catchers have limited PT, you're basically looking at 450 PAs of your primary guy and 225 of your backup in a typical year, so Willson+Vic projects at 3.6 WAR and Vic+Castro at 2.8. We're talking about roughly a win of difference even when assuming that framing is complete hokum. If we were an AL team that could DH him and squeeze out another 100 PAs it may be different, but as is the dropoff looks small enough to be worth nabbing a few fun young pitchers.

 

All of these trade proposals involving all stars (Contreras, Bryant, etc.) talk about getting young players back, which is fine if those young players are going to contribute to the Cubs at the major league level in 2020 and 2021. I'm not interested in 18-20 year-olds that "might" be really good in 2023-2024.

[Cubswin11]

IMO the Contreras trade is more about how solid Vic is and the prospect of getting some ML ready young pitching than it is about any deficiency of Willson's. Here are the Steamer projected WAR/450 values for each guy assuming neutral defense:

 

Willson - 2.6

Vic - 2.0

Castro - 1.7

 

Because catchers have limited PT, you're basically looking at 450 PAs of your primary guy and 225 of your backup in a typical year, so Willson+Vic projects at 3.6 WAR and Vic+Castro at 2.8. We're talking about roughly a win of difference even when assuming that framing is complete hokum. If we were an AL team that could DH him and squeeze out another 100 PAs it may be different, but as is the dropoff looks small enough to be worth nabbing a few fun young pitchers.

 

All of these trade proposals involving all stars (Contreras, Bryant, etc.) talk about getting young players back, which is fine if those young players are going to contribute to the Cubs at the major league level in 2020 and 2021. I'm not interested in 18-20 year-olds that "might" be really good in 2023-2024.

Any trade for these guys I think brings back at least some level of a ready MLB player on top of prospects. Like a Margot, Lamet, Estevez, other RP or whatever types. I don’t think they’d go for 100% prospect packages.

[Bertz]

IMO the Contreras trade is more about how solid Vic is and the prospect of getting some ML ready young pitching than it is about any deficiency of Willson's. Here are the Steamer projected WAR/450 values for each guy assuming neutral defense:

 

Willson - 2.6

Vic - 2.0

Castro - 1.7

 

Because catchers have limited PT, you're basically looking at 450 PAs of your primary guy and 225 of your backup in a typical year, so Willson+Vic projects at 3.6 WAR and Vic+Castro at 2.8. We're talking about roughly a win of difference even when assuming that framing is complete hokum. If we were an AL team that could DH him and squeeze out another 100 PAs it may be different, but as is the dropoff looks small enough to be worth nabbing a few fun young pitchers.

 

All of these trade proposals involving all stars (Contreras, Bryant, etc.) talk about getting young players back, which is fine if those young players are going to contribute to the Cubs at the major league level in 2020 and 2021. I'm not interested in 18-20 year-olds that "might" be really good in 2023-2024.

 

Me neither. When I picture a Willson trade, I picture getting back a starter who is at worst half season from being ready and a reliever who I would be comfortable giving 8th inning work on opening weekend. To use the Padres as an example, as they're my preferred destination, I'd look at packages like Cal Quantrill + Andres Munoz or Adrian Morejon + Matt Strahm.

[sneakypower]

IMO the Contreras trade is more about how solid Vic is and the prospect of getting some ML ready young pitching than it is about any deficiency of Willson's. Here are the Steamer projected WAR/450 values for each guy assuming neutral defense:

 

Willson - 2.6

Vic - 2.0

Castro - 1.7

 

Because catchers have limited PT, you're basically looking at 450 PAs of your primary guy and 225 of your backup in a typical year, so Willson+Vic projects at 3.6 WAR and Vic+Castro at 2.8. We're talking about roughly a win of difference even when assuming that framing is complete hokum. If we were an AL team that could DH him and squeeze out another 100 PAs it may be different, but as is the dropoff looks small enough to be worth nabbing a few fun young pitchers.

those steamer projections are a total trainwreck though; half of the top 10 there might not even be starters

 

meanwhile reigning 2-time all-star is squarely backup status, just a complete mess

[sneakypower]

the wise man bowed his head solemnly and spoke: "theres actually zero difference between good & bad catchers. you imbecile. you horsefeathering moron"

[Bertz]

IMO the Contreras trade is more about how solid Vic is and the prospect of getting some ML ready young pitching than it is about any deficiency of Willson's. Here are the Steamer projected WAR/450 values for each guy assuming neutral defense:

 

Willson - 2.6

Vic - 2.0

Castro - 1.7

 

Because catchers have limited PT, you're basically looking at 450 PAs of your primary guy and 225 of your backup in a typical year, so Willson+Vic projects at 3.6 WAR and Vic+Castro at 2.8. We're talking about roughly a win of difference even when assuming that framing is complete hokum. If we were an AL team that could DH him and squeeze out another 100 PAs it may be different, but as is the dropoff looks small enough to be worth nabbing a few fun young pitchers.

those steamer projections are a total trainwreck though; half of the top 10 there might not even be starters

 

meanwhile reigning 2-time all-star is squarely backup status, just a complete mess

 

I agree the defensive numbers don't pass the smell test, which is why I zeroed them out. Or do you just not like projections in general?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I appreciate your commitment to respond to news that the Cubs can barely afford to sign a Minor League FA with a scenario that boils down to “trading Quintana frees up enough to get Cole, right?