2020 roster

[squally1313]

At worst he’s likely a cheap bench/role player for a few years and we don’t need to pay the Descalso’s or Kemp’s of the world a few million to fill that role.

 

Why is this a good outcome? He's generally considered a top 50 prospect in baseball right now and a positive outcome would be using him to save a few million off the back of the roster....Yippee skippee

 

Trent Giambrone and Vimael Machin can probably do the same thing and it's a way less sinister act by the org

 

At worst he’s likely a cheap bench/role player for a few years and we don’t need to pay the Descalso’s or Kemp’s of the world a few million to fill that role.

 

At worst

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What do people see in Nico Hoerner that I don't?

 

If you need a reason to believe, he is a college bat that this front office drafted in the first round even when that wasn't his consensus value.

 

Not sure if this is supposed to be sarcastic.

 

Not at all. It's not proof positive he's going to be a star, but their lack of misses at the top of drafts when drafting college hitters is a validation of their ability to get MLB caliber players from that cohort.

[Cubswin11]

At worst he’s likely a cheap bench/role player for a few years and we don’t need to pay the Descalso’s or Kemp’s of the world a few million to fill that role.

 

Why is this a good outcome? He's generally considered a top 50 prospect in baseball right now and a positive outcome would be using him to save a few million off the back of the roster....Yippee skippee

 

Trent Giambrone, Vimael Machin, maybe even Zack Short can probably do the same thing and it's a way less sinister act by the org

I mean I said it’s a worst case outcome, there’s still value in producing cheap bench/role, second division starter type players internally vs having to pay millions for them. And yeah as a top 50 prospect you hope for more but even for top 50 prospects turning in to a useful bench/role player is a positive outcome, a lot of those guys won’t even make it as any type of MLB player in the next 2-5 years.

 

And again, especially for this year and next, Hoerner brings something in his contact ability that the team (as currently constructed) sucks at. I see value in that, even if he’s more of a platoon/pinch hitter/couple days a week starter. I also have no idea what the horsefeathers your sinister comment means.

Edited November 8, 2019 by Cubswin11

[squally1313]

 

If you need a reason to believe, he is a college bat that this front office drafted in the first round even when that wasn't his consensus value.

 

Not sure if this is supposed to be sarcastic.

 

Not at all. It's not proof positive he's going to be a star, but their lack of misses at the top of drafts when drafting college hitters is a validation of their ability to get MLB caliber players from that cohort.

 

I guess I'm not sure what type of value you're assigning to Hoerner, but if we're comparing him to Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber, both of whom were top 10 picks and in theory more valuable/better players, that's not exactly a ringing endorsement. And yes, I know, Kris Bryant, but he was in no way a reach.

 

Basically I think people keep ignoring the Albert Almora sized elephant in the room when they look at Hoerner's (admittedly limited) numbers. I think Hoerner can be a poor mans version of a poor mans Zobrist, but I haven't really seen anything beyond that.

[Cubswin11]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Not sure if this is supposed to be sarcastic.

 

Not at all. It's not proof positive he's going to be a star, but their lack of misses at the top of drafts when drafting college hitters is a validation of their ability to get MLB caliber players from that cohort.

 

I guess I'm not sure what type of value you're assigning to Hoerner, but if we're comparing him to Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber, both of whom were top 10 picks and in theory more valuable/better players, that's not exactly a ringing endorsement. And yes, I know, Kris Bryant, but he was in no way a reach.

 

Basically I think people keep ignoring the Albert Almora sized elephant in the room when they look at Hoerner's (admittedly limited) numbers. I think Hoerner can be a poor mans version of a poor mans Zobrist, but I haven't really seen anything beyond that.

 

Happ and Schwarber have combined for about 14 fWAR in just under 3000 PAs, that rate of production is more than fine with me as an outcome for Hoerner. Yes, there are some parallels to Almora, but 1) those are going to happen with any high contact player who isn't an Altuve-level talent, and that's where leaning on Hoerner's ability to adapt from being a high level college player plus ever-improving organizational instruction can give room for optimism.

[Cubswin11]

 

Padres and Braves step right up, please....Who else do I not hate for Contreras...the Indians if Theo can get Lindor *and* Kluber...uuuum...the Mets...His contract situation might even make the Rays do something they normally wouldn't do...Rockies have a great park for him and some players...the Angels could give up Adell for a top win now player with a great contract situation...

I think my ideal Willy outcome this offseason is him (throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood, Abbott, etc type or two if needed) for Jon Gray and Carlos Estevez then sign Grandal.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Padres and Braves step right up, please....Who else do I not hate for Contreras...the Indians if Theo can get Lindor *and* Kluber...uuuum...the Mets...His contract situation might even make the Rays do something they normally wouldn't do...Rockies have a great park for him and some players...the Angels could give up Adell for a top win now player with a great contract situation...

I think my ideal Willy outcome this offseason is him (throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood, Abbott, etc type or two if needed) for Jon Gray and Carlos Estevez then sign Grandal.

 

If you can pull off Gray and Estevez for Contreras and no other MLB/top prospect assets, you have a lot of flexibility to imprvoe without needing 17 trades. Grandal + Shogo, Castro + Castellanos, etc

[squally1313]

 

Not at all. It's not proof positive he's going to be a star, but their lack of misses at the top of drafts when drafting college hitters is a validation of their ability to get MLB caliber players from that cohort.

 

I guess I'm not sure what type of value you're assigning to Hoerner, but if we're comparing him to Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber, both of whom were top 10 picks and in theory more valuable/better players, that's not exactly a ringing endorsement. And yes, I know, Kris Bryant, but he was in no way a reach.

 

Basically I think people keep ignoring the Albert Almora sized elephant in the room when they look at Hoerner's (admittedly limited) numbers. I think Hoerner can be a poor mans version of a poor mans Zobrist, but I haven't really seen anything beyond that.

 

Happ and Schwarber have combined for about 14 fWAR in just under 3000 PAs, that rate of production is more than fine with me as an outcome for Hoerner. Yes, there are some parallels to Almora, but 1) those are going to happen with any high contact player who isn't an Altuve-level talent, and that's where leaning on Hoerner's ability to adapt from being a high level college player plus ever-improving organizational instruction can give room for optimism.

 

But there’s nothing to suggest Hoerner has the same level of talent. He was drafted later, his numbers aren’t nearly as good. He can play a very valuable position, but we already have a shortstop. Theo and Co get credit for him looking like a major leaguer, but he’s a clear step down from two guys who have been debated as future pieces of this team for the last year.

[Cubswin11]

 

Padres and Braves step right up, please....Who else do I not hate for Contreras...the Indians if Theo can get Lindor *and* Kluber...uuuum...the Mets...His contract situation might even make the Rays do something they normally wouldn't do...Rockies have a great park for him and some players...the Angels could give up Adell for a top win now player with a great contract situation...

I think my ideal Willy outcome this offseason is him (throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood, Abbott, etc type or two if needed) for Jon Gray and Carlos Estevez then sign Grandal.

 

If you can pull off Gray and Estevez for Contreras and no other MLB/top prospect assets, you have a lot of flexibility to imprvoe without needing 17 trades. Grandal + Shogo, Castro + Castellanos, etc

Yeah it really opens up a lot. You solidify the rotation (plus fill a spot for next year) and add a solid RP without it costing money. Then the money can be used in a variety of ways like you laid out. Grandal, Moustakas (move KB to RF), bring back Nick, Didi, maybe be able to take on a guy like Lowrie, could open up potentially being able to move Q to save some money to go do something bigger (basically Gray takes Qs spot and Mills/Chatwood/Rea/etc take the 5 spot), etc.

[Backtobanks]

I think my ideal Willy outcome this offseason is him (throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood, Abbott, etc type or two if needed) for Jon Gray and Carlos Estevez then sign Grandal.

 

If you can pull off Gray and Estevez for Contreras and no other MLB/top prospect assets, you have a lot of flexibility to imprvoe without needing 17 trades. Grandal + Shogo, Castro + Castellanos, etc

Yeah it really opens up a lot. You solidify the rotation (plus fill a spot for next year) and add a solid RP without it costing money. Then the money can be used in a variety of ways like you laid out. Grandal, Moustakas (move KB to RF), bring back Nick, Didi, maybe be able to take on a guy like Lowrie, could open up potentially being able to move Q to save some money to go do something bigger (basically Gray takes Qs spot and Mills/Chatwood/Rea/etc take the 5 spot), etc.

 

I'm not sure the Rockies would make that trade. There's going to be a lot of competition for Gray alone without throwing Estevez into the deal.

[Deeg]

What do people see in Nico Hoerner that I don't?

 

Obviously not a lot of Almora, cause that's what I see.

[Cubswin11]

 

If you can pull off Gray and Estevez for Contreras and no other MLB/top prospect assets, you have a lot of flexibility to imprvoe without needing 17 trades. Grandal + Shogo, Castro + Castellanos, etc

Yeah it really opens up a lot. You solidify the rotation (plus fill a spot for next year) and add a solid RP without it costing money. Then the money can be used in a variety of ways like you laid out. Grandal, Moustakas (move KB to RF), bring back Nick, Didi, maybe be able to take on a guy like Lowrie, could open up potentially being able to move Q to save some money to go do something bigger (basically Gray takes Qs spot and Mills/Chatwood/Rea/etc take the 5 spot), etc.

 

I'm not sure the Rockies would make that trade. There's going to be a lot of competition for Gray alone without throwing Estevez into the deal.

Gray only has 2 years of control left vs 3 for Willy. Gray seems to have fallen out of some favor there plus the trade saves them some money (something they’re trying to do apparently). Estevez is like 4th or 5th in the pecking order for their bullpen arms, he should be attainable. The Rockies desperately need some bats, they only had 5 players provide positive offensive WAR last year, Wes Pearson (a pitcher) was their 6th most valuable offensive WAR player. Yonder Alonso had the 6th highest wRC+ for them, 2 of their top 11 players by wRC+ were pitchers, we think we have depth problems but they’re on another level.

 

With the money committed to Blackmon and Arenado they can’t really just bottom out and I’d assume they’ll keep trying to win, Contreras makes a lot of sense for them to add. Their catchers were 28th in MLB in WAR (-1.7), they combined to hit .239/.316/.349 with 9 Dongs and a 59 wRC+.

[mhuber92211]

Im confused with the Willy trade plan. Why wouldn the acquiring team just sign Grandal if that is the Cubs big plan there? I get that 3 more years of control and such but at a high prospect cost would make less sense unless the team is severely cash strapped which the braves and padres arent. Perhaps the roster crunch in SD would be helpful there but if Willy is traded, its likely to make Caratini the started with an aged vet to be backup. This wouldnt be a horrible play depending on the return for Willy.

 

I still think a trade to Philly for Bryant is more likely than Contreras.

[Cubswin11]

Im confused with the Willy trade plan. Why wouldn the acquiring team just sign Grandal if that is the Cubs big plan there? I get that 3 more years of control and such but at a high prospect cost would make less sense unless the team is severely cash strapped which the braves and padres arent. Perhaps the roster crunch in SD would be helpful there but if Willy is traded, its likely to make Caratini the started with an aged vet to be backup. This wouldnt be a horrible play depending on the return for Willy.

 

I still think a trade to Philly for Bryant is more likely than Contreras.

There’s more than one team that needs a catcher and other than Grandal there isn’t anyone close to Willy in value available. Willy is also only going to cost about $25 million over the next 3 years while Grandal will cost $40-50 million over those 3 years (plus probably take another year or two and more money after that) and is older. It’s not hard to see how there would be multiple teams interested in Willy that the report mentioned today, even with Grandal a FA. Realmuto was traded last offseason when Grandal was available via FA too.

[Backtobanks]

Yeah it really opens up a lot. You solidify the rotation (plus fill a spot for next year) and add a solid RP without it costing money. Then the money can be used in a variety of ways like you laid out. Grandal, Moustakas (move KB to RF), bring back Nick, Didi, maybe be able to take on a guy like Lowrie, could open up potentially being able to move Q to save some money to go do something bigger (basically Gray takes Qs spot and Mills/Chatwood/Rea/etc take the 5 spot), etc.

 

I'm not sure the Rockies would make that trade. There's going to be a lot of competition for Gray alone without throwing Estevez into the deal.

Gray only has 2 years of control left vs 3 for Willy. Gray seems to have fallen out of some favor there plus the trade saves them some money (something they’re trying to do apparently). Estevez is like 4th or 5th in the pecking order for their bullpen arms, he should be attainable. The Rockies desperately need some bats, they only had 5 players provide positive offensive WAR last year, Wes Pearson (a pitcher) was their 6th most valuable offensive WAR player. Yonder Alonso had the 6th highest wRC+ for them, 2 of their top 11 players by wRC+ were pitchers, we think we have depth problems but they’re on another level.

 

With the money committed to Blackmon and Arenado they can’t really just bottom out and I’d assume they’ll keep trying to win, Contreras makes a lot of sense for them to add. Their catchers were 28th in MLB in WAR (-1.7), they combined to hit .239/.316/.349 with 9 Dongs and a 59 wRC+.

 

While I agree that Contreras makes sense for the Rockies (and almost any other team), I don't think the Rockies will be trying to contend next year.

From MLBTR: Colorado owns one of the majors’ least impressive farm systems (per Baseball America), and dealing Gray could help the franchise improve its class of pre-MLB talent. Moreover, the Rockies doesn’t appear likely to contend in 2020.

[Bertz]

Im confused with the Willy trade plan. Why wouldn the acquiring team just sign Grandal if that is the Cubs big plan there? I get that 3 more years of control and such but at a high prospect cost would make less sense unless the team is severely cash strapped which the braves and padres arent. Perhaps the roster crunch in SD would be helpful there but if Willy is traded, its likely to make Caratini the started with an aged vet to be backup. This wouldnt be a horrible play depending on the return for Willy.

 

I still think a trade to Philly for Bryant is more likely than Contreras.

 

Money mostly, Grandal will make almost as much in year one of his deal as Willson will over the next three. Also, if you think you can "one weird trick" Contreras into better framing you just basically traded for JT Realmuto. Especially nowadays there's value in what a guy could be as opposed to what he currently is.

[Bertz]

While I agree that Contreras makes sense for the Rockies (and almost any other team), I don't think the Rockies will be trying to contend next year.

From MLBTR: Colorado owns one of the majors’ least impressive farm systems (per Baseball America), and dealing Gray could help the franchise improve its class of pre-MLB talent. Moreover, the Rockies doesn’t appear likely to contend in 2020.

 

If that's true, it makes even more sense to trade a guy with 2 years of control left for one with 3, right?

[Backtobanks]

While I agree that Contreras makes sense for the Rockies (and almost any other team), I don't think the Rockies will be trying to contend next year.

From MLBTR: Colorado owns one of the majors’ least impressive farm systems (per Baseball America), and dealing Gray could help the franchise improve its class of pre-MLB talent. Moreover, the Rockies doesn’t appear likely to contend in 2020.

 

If that's true, it makes even more sense to trade a guy with 2 years of control left for one with 3, right?

 

It would make more sense to trade Gray to a team willing to trade multiple top prospects with lots of years of control left.

[Cubswin11]

While I agree that Contreras makes sense for the Rockies (and almost any other team), I don't think the Rockies will be trying to contend next year.

From MLBTR: Colorado owns one of the majors’ least impressive farm systems (per Baseball America), and dealing Gray could help the franchise improve its class of pre-MLB talent. Moreover, the Rockies doesn’t appear likely to contend in 2020.

 

If that's true, it makes even more sense to trade a guy with 2 years of control left for one with 3, right?

 

It would make more sense to trade Gray to a team willing to trade multiple top prospects with lots of years of control left.

I’d still be surprised if they prioritized guys who are 2-3+ years away when they have Blackmon, Arenado, Story, and Marquez around. I think a guy like Contreras has a lot of appeal to them, he’s still cheap and controlled for 3 years and helps immediately. But fine, then send them Bote/Happ, Ademan and like Corey Abott. Gray, as a target makes a lot of sense and we have the pieces to get him whether it’s a Contreras package or prospects and a lesser MLB piece.

[Cubswin11]

I’d still be surprised if they prioritized guys who are 2-3+ years away when they have Blackmon, Arenado, Story, and Marquez around.

 

Exactly. It's a virtual lock without even knowing who is else is on the table that Contreras over 3 years goes a longer way for them than some unnamed unknown prospects. What are the chances they *actually* get ML impact prospects ready to run roughshod on the league for 6 years? Look how the Samardzija trade turned out for the Cubs and that was landing a guy who ended up one of the best handful prospects in the game right after

 

I think if anyone's throwing an extra player in, probably a pitcher, it's the Rockies.Gray's not the AS (unless he was, I don't know), Contreras is the AS. Gray doesn't play everyday, Contreras plays everyday, Gray has 2 years, Contreras has 3 etc etc

That’s where Estevez comes in and I’d be fine if we had to throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood type on top of Contreras as well.

[Backtobanks]

That’s where Estevez comes in and I’d be fine if we had to throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood type on top of Contreras as well.

 

Oh true, if Estevez then go ahead and throw them a MiLer. I suspect full season pitching are the goners these days so the Millers, Thompsons, Sanders, Pattersons, etc...whoever got press during the season basically

 

So a team that gave up 958 runs is going to trade their best starter and their best reliever for another hitter?

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR: The Baltimore Orioles primary goal for the near-term remains adding as much talent to the organization as possible, primarily in the minor leagues. That said, GM Mike Elias does have a winter checklist in this, his first full offseason as GM (the Orioles hired him on November 16th of last year). Namely, the Orioles will be looking for pitching and a veteran shortstop, per MASNSports’ Roch Kubatko.

 

How about Russell plus a prospect (or 2) for Villar?

[Cubswin11]

From MLBTR: The Baltimore Orioles primary goal for the near-term remains adding as much talent to the organization as possible, primarily in the minor leagues. That said, GM Mike Elias does have a winter checklist in this, his first full offseason as GM (the Orioles hired him on November 16th of last year). Namely, the Orioles will be looking for pitching and a veteran shortstop, per MASNSports’ Roch Kubatko.

 

How about Russell plus a prospect (or 2) for Villar?

I’m all for getting rid of Russell but I hate Villar, he might suck. Plus he’s expensive.

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR: The Baltimore Orioles primary goal for the near-term remains adding as much talent to the organization as possible, primarily in the minor leagues. That said, GM Mike Elias does have a winter checklist in this, his first full offseason as GM (the Orioles hired him on November 16th of last year). Namely, the Orioles will be looking for pitching and a veteran shortstop, per MASNSports’ Roch Kubatko.

 

How about Russell plus a prospect (or 2) for Villar?

I’m all for getting rid of Russell but I hate Villar, he might suck. Plus he’s expensive.

 

He made $1.4 million more than Russell this year. He will probably get a decent raise next year where Russell probably won't though.