2020 roster

[Cubswin11]

I just realized Derwood’s whole original premise is also wrong. The juiced ball doesn’t lead to higher EVs or the old ball doesn’t lead to lower EVs as far as I know. 110 off the bat is still 110 off the bat regardless of ball, it just might not carry as much because the pill and seams. If Castellanos is still hitting balls 100+ MPH good things will happen regardless of the ball. It’s the Sogard’s of the world, that have been mentioned, who will suffer with their 84-90 MPH EVs turning in to outs vs gappers/HRs.

[Cubswin11]

[Cubswin11]

I just realized Derwood’s whole original premise is also wrong. The juiced ball doesn’t lead to higher EVs or the old ball doesn’t lead to lower EVs as far as I know. 110 off the bat is still 110 off the bat regardless of ball, it just might not carry as much because the pill and seams. If Castellanos is still hitting balls 100+ MPH good things will happen regardless of the ball. It’s the Sogard’s of the world, that have been mentioned, who will suffer with their 84-90 MPH EVs turning in to outs vs gappers/HRs.

 

I don't know anything about this topic but why wouldn't a juiced ball lead to higher EVs?

Just like we are close to maxed out on how hard pitchers can physically throw I think we are close to maxed out on how hard hitters can hit it. I don’t recall seeing any stuff about the juiced ball increasing exit velo in articles on it, just distance is increased on lower velos. Anecdotally just sort by average exit velo leaders going back to 2015-19 on here and the numbers seems pretty close at the top.

 

http://m.mlb.com/statcast/leaderboard

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How does a juiced ball go further if it's not exiting the bat faster? It's the same shape. It's the same weight, isn't it? Is it just the seams being tighter?

[Cubswin11]

How does a juiced ball go further if it's not exiting the bat faster? It's the same shape. It's the same weight, isn't it? Is it just the seams being tighter?

Something with the pill (density or holding ball flight better or something) and the seams being lower allowing less drag, I think that’s how. I’m not a scientist and haven’t read an article on the ball lately. I’m sure it’s in every article about it if you google it.

[Bertz]

How does a juiced ball go further if it's not exiting the bat faster? It's the same shape. It's the same weight, isn't it? Is it just the seams being tighter?

Something with the pill (density or holding ball flight better or something) and the seams being lower allowing less drag, I think that’s how. I’m not a scientist and haven’t read an article on the ball lately. I’m sure it’s in every article about it if you google it.

 

Here's a good write up on it from Dr. Meredith Wills in the Athletic (she also talked through this on Effectively Wild not too long ago)

 

In order for the ball to move differently through the air, either the shape, surface, or “wobble” has to change. The Home Run Committee offered several theories along these lines. One was that the core—commonly known as the “pill”—could have become more centered, resulting in less “wobble.” (As an analogy, consider that a spiraling football travels farther than one that tumbles through the air.) Another was that the leather covers could be being processed differently, creating a smoother surface. A third suggested an overall increase in spherical symmetry; in effect, a rounder ball is able to travel farther.

 

She goes on to say that it's the third one, That basically the laces are thicker and tighter than they used to be, leading to less "bulging" around the seams (think of your shoes right after you tie them vs. a few hours in).

[Bertz]

Per MLBTR, Akiyama has reportedly told his team that he plans to come over to MLB. So move him from "probably an option" to "definitely an option."

[Cubswin11]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

 

 

I’m hoping this is more in regards to a Rendon/Cole level deal, which still sucks, and not the 20-30 mil we all feel should be out there to spend.

[Cubswin11]

I didn’t read the article or listen to the interview, I just took the clickbait tweet. You can definitely view some of those things more positively than the tweet made it seem to be. I never felt Ricketts is overly hands on, I’ve always gotten a hands off vibe from the baseball ops side (outside of the budget, which yeah every team has one that is owner imposed).

[Bertz]

The Ricketts are ghouls, but these quotes don't really say a lot in either direction IMO.

 

That being said we are royally horsefeathered if we try to get under the luxury tax this year or next. That became a likelihood when the ink dried on Heyward's contract, and became a certainty when we added Darvish and Chatwood. If the plan is to compete without paying taxes that's not a real plan, at that point just have another fire sale and let Theo run off in the night in a gorilla suit.

[Cubswin11]

If you want to put on the conspiracy theory, connect the dots hat on this...... this is the kind of thing a team starts leaking about a guy publicly as they prepare to trade him to soften the blowback by the fans.

 

 

[Cubswin11]

 

[Bertz]

I would want the pitching additions to be pretty badass to balance it out, but they could *probably* get away with just Kendrick and a mid level CF on the position player side of things.

[Cubswin11]

I would want the pitching additions to be pretty badass to balance it out, but they could *probably* get away with just Kendrick and a mid level CF on the position player side of things.

Yeah I think they could get away with Kendrick and Margot as the offense adds. Still would like to add Cesar Hernandez if he hits FA paired with those two. Then do some cool stuff on the pitching side (Gray). Wouldn’t be a fun or sexy offseason but probably enough to add the above names with an additional bullpen add or two that the roster would be more well rounded and they’d project to be the best team in the division.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think Kendrick is a fine addition, but I’m uneasy considering him the fulcrum of the offseason when he’s a 36 year old, BABIP dependent bat who spent the majority of his defensive innings at 1B.

[Cubswin11]

[Cubswin11]

With no announcement on the Rizzo option yet, I wonder if they’re working on an extension. He has 2/29 left with the team options, something like 4/60 or 5/70 would make sense.

[Tryptamine]

With no announcement on the Rizzo option yet, I wonder if they’re working on an extension. He has 2/29 left with the team options, something like 4/60 or 5/70 would make sense.

 

With the power disappearing in the 2nd half and the ball likely going back to normal I'm not sure I want him 2 more years unless it's something like 4/60.

[Cubswin11]

With no announcement on the Rizzo option yet, I wonder if they’re working on an extension. He has 2/29 left with the team options, something like 4/60 or 5/70 would make sense.

 

With the power disappearing in the 2nd half and the ball likely going back to normal I'm not sure I want him 2 more years unless it's something like 4/60.

He’s still one of the better 5-8 1B in the league and he’s pretty remarkably consistent from 2014-2019. I don’t know why we wouldn’t want him for 2-3 years past the two options years. He’ll be 32/33 when he hits FA, he doesn’t have some big payday waiting out there. Going 4/60 or 5/70 range seems perfectly reasonable and is something I’d want. There’s also the whole thing with him being the leader an everything of this group that he’s earned this a bit.

[Cubswin11]

[Backtobanks]

With no announcement on the Rizzo option yet, I wonder if they’re working on an extension. He has 2/29 left with the team options, something like 4/60 or 5/70 would make sense.

 

With the power disappearing in the 2nd half and the ball likely going back to normal I'm not sure I want him 2 more years unless it's something like 4/60.

He’s still one of the better 5-8 1B in the league and he’s pretty remarkably consistent from 2014-2019. I don’t know why we wouldn’t want him for 2-3 years past the two options years. He’ll be 32/33 when he hits FA, he doesn’t have some big payday waiting out there. Going 4/60 or 5/70 range seems perfectly reasonable and is something I’d want. There’s also the whole thing with him being the leader an everything of this group that he’s earned this a bit.

 

I totally agree. Rizzo at 32 or 33 making $14 or $15 million per year will be better than paying Harper or Machado $26-$30 million when they're 37 or 38 yrs old.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

With the power disappearing in the 2nd half and the ball likely going back to normal I'm not sure I want him 2 more years unless it's something like 4/60.

He’s still one of the better 5-8 1B in the league and he’s pretty remarkably consistent from 2014-2019. I don’t know why we wouldn’t want him for 2-3 years past the two options years. He’ll be 32/33 when he hits FA, he doesn’t have some big payday waiting out there. Going 4/60 or 5/70 range seems perfectly reasonable and is something I’d want. There’s also the whole thing with him being the leader an everything of this group that he’s earned this a bit.

 

I totally agree. Rizzo at 32 or 33 making $14 or $15 million per year will be better than paying Harper or Machado $26-$30 million when they're 37 or 38 yrs old.

 

What does the former have to do with the latter.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Dang, what an entirely made-up false choice. (yeah I know, redundant, but damn)

[Backtobanks]

He’s still one of the better 5-8 1B in the league and he’s pretty remarkably consistent from 2014-2019. I don’t know why we wouldn’t want him for 2-3 years past the two options years. He’ll be 32/33 when he hits FA, he doesn’t have some big payday waiting out there. Going 4/60 or 5/70 range seems perfectly reasonable and is something I’d want. There’s also the whole thing with him being the leader an everything of this group that he’s earned this a bit.

 

I totally agree. Rizzo at 32 or 33 making $14 or $15 million per year will be better than paying Harper or Machado $26-$30 million when they're 37 or 38 yrs old.

 

What does the former have to do with the latter.

 

Because most were on board to paying that kind of contract to Harper/Machado.

[Bertz]

 

Like Brett alluded to they ended up being very right to cut bait on Smyly, and this is a similar situation. We haven't seen him since May 2018 and a lot can happen on the road back from TJ surgery.

 

This sucks though, probably have to move "starter with MiLB options" a little further up the offseason wish list.