2020 roster

[ChiCubsFan]

horsefeathers it let’s just get Rendon.

 

There's a real part of me that wants to build a 6 run per game offense and just kinda figure it out as we go along with the pitching and defense

 

1B - Rizzo

3B - Rendon

RF - Bryant

LF - Schwarber

SS - Javy

C - Willson

2B - Happ

CF - Nico

 

BN - Vic, Bote, Heyward, Descalso, Kemp

 

Would Happ in CF and Nico at 2b be better?

 

I’m on board with platooning Happ/Hoerner/Heyward between CF and 2B. Vs righties Heyward starts in CF with Happ and Nico splitting the starts at 2b. Happ in CF and Nico at 2B vs lefties.

[squally1313]

horsefeathers it let’s just get Rendon.

 

There's a real part of me that wants to build a 6 run per game offense and just kinda figure it out as we go along with the pitching and defense

 

1B - Rizzo

3B - Rendon

RF - Bryant

LF - Schwarber

SS - Javy

C - Willson

2B - Happ

CF - Nico

 

BN - Vic, Bote, Heyward, Descalso, Kemp

 

Would Happ in CF and Nico at 2b be better?

 

I’m on board with platooning Happ/Hoerner/Heyward between CF and 2B. Vs righties Heyward starts in CF with Happ and Nico splitting the starts at 2b. Happ in CF and Nico at 2B vs lefties.

 

Does Hoerner have splits? Happ isn't very good against lefties. Better than Heyward, but still prefer him as the first guy off the bench/the guy getting 3 starts a week spelling 4-5 positions.

[Cubswin11]

Okay, let's try to figure out a way to have an offseason to add Rendon that doesn't force us to do crazy things like trade KB away to make the money work and build a good team still. For the purpose of this exercise I'm assuming we have $30 million to spend after tendering all players (other than Russell) and exercising/declining the options we all know they will (exercise Q, Graveman and Rizzo, decline Phelps and Morrow).

 

First Move: Sign Rendon to 9/252 (28 AAV). So basically this is all the money (~$2 mil left) so that leads to the next move.

 

Second Move: Trade Q and Almora to the Phillies for Pivetta, maybe it's selling low but it's giving us about $9.5 million in salary relief (lets say $12 mil now to spend) and gives us a potential rotation arm under team control with options who still has intriguing stuff.

 

Third Move: Trade Contreras, Underwood and Giambrone to the Angels for David Fletcher, Ty Buttrey and a prospect. Fletcher and Buttrey are still under team control so this saves us around $2.5 million (so we are up to about $14 mil yet to spend), gets us a very good bullpen arm and a solid utility player who has a good contact profile that compliments the team well.

 

Fourth Move: Trade Happ, Cory Abbott, Zack Short and maybe another prospect we don't care about for Jon Gray. Gray slots in and takes Q's spot in the rotation and this costs us around $6 mil ($8 mil left to play with).

 

Fifth Move: Sign Jason Castro to a 2/11 contract ($3 mil left to play with)

 

Sixth Move: Sign Billy Hamilton to a 1/2.5 contract (basically the money is all spent)

 

26 Man Roster:

 

Position Players:

1. Vic C

2. Rizzo 1B

3. Nico 2B (but also SS/CF)

4. Javy SS

5. Rendon 3B

6. Schwarbs LF

7. Heyward CF

8. KB RF

 

Bench: 9. Bote 3B/2B 10. Fletcher 2B/3B/COF 11. Kemp 2B/OF 12. Castro C 13. Hamilton CF

 

Rotation:

1. Lester

2. Hendricks

3. Darvish

4. Gray

5. Mills

 

Bullpen: 6. Kimbrel 7. Butrey 8. Wick 9. Ryan 10. Chatwood 11. Wieck 12. Pivetta/Adbert/Graveman/Rea/Iowa shuttle (Pedro back for league min)

 

Descalso was also cut in this scenario and sent back to his home planet

Edited October 10, 2019 by Cubswin11

[Bertz]

horsefeathers it let’s just get Rendon.

 

There's a real part of me that wants to build a 6 run per game offense and just kinda figure it out as we go along with the pitching and defense

 

1B - Rizzo

3B - Rendon

RF - Bryant

LF - Schwarber

SS - Javy

C - Willson

2B - Happ

CF - Nico

 

BN - Vic, Bote, Heyward, Descalso, Kemp

 

Would Happ in CF and Nico at 2b be better?

 

I’m on board with platooning Happ/Hoerner/Heyward between CF and 2B. Vs righties Heyward starts in CF with Happ and Nico splitting the starts at 2b. Happ in CF and Nico at 2B vs lefties.

 

I would imagine if we played a game today that Happ in CF and Nico at 2b would be better. But I think with Nico's speed he'd be a really good CF within a fairly short amount of time. Happ seems to be in a weird spot where he's not really good anywhere despite above average athleticism, but he's also not too bad anywhere either.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

"fix the rest of the roster after spending all free money on Rendon" is a fun game.

 

Quintana for Margot and Hedges +5.5M

Almora for Yoan Lopez (gonna beat this one into the ground) +1.2M

Contreras and Happ for Gray and Estevez -1.7M

Pick up Graveman's option

 

Rendon 3B

Bryant RF

Rizzo 1B

Baez SS

Schwarber LF

Heyward/Margot CF

Caratini/Hedges C

Bote/Hoerner 2B

 

Hendricks/Darvish/Gray/Lester/Graveman(Chatwood/Alzolay/Mills* also competing)

 

Kimbrel/Wick/Estevez/Ryan/Chatwood/Lopez/AAA

 

Hedges/Hoerner/Descalso/Kemp/Happ/Margot

[ConstableRabbit]

"fix the rest of the roster after spending all free money on Rendon" is a fun game.

 

Quintana for Margot and Hedges +5.5M

Almora for Yoan Lopez (gonna beat this one into the ground)* +1.2M

Contreras and Happ for Gray and Estevez -1.7M

Pick up Graveman's option

 

Rendon 3B

Bryant RF

Rizzo 1B

Baez SS

Schwarber LF

Heyward/Happ/Margot CF

Caratini/Hedges C

Bote/Hoerner 2B

 

Hendricks/Darvish/Gray/Lester/Graveman(Chatwood/Alzolay/Mills* also competing)

 

Kimbrel/Wick/Estevez/Ryan/Chatwood/Lopez/AAA

 

Hedges/Hoerner/Descalso/Kemp/Happ/Margot

Let's horsefeathering go with this team. I'm serious.

 

 

 

 

 

*Things Almora says to himself before every plate appearance.

[Cubswin11]

"fix the rest of the roster after spending all free money on Rendon" is a fun game.

 

Quintana for Margot and Hedges +5.5M

Almora for Yoan Lopez (gonna beat this one into the ground) +1.2M

Contreras and Happ for Gray and Estevez -1.7M

Pick up Graveman's option

 

Rendon 3B

Bryant RF

Rizzo 1B

Baez SS

Schwarber LF

Heyward/Happ/Margot CF

Caratini/Hedges C

Bote/Hoerner 2B

 

Hendricks/Darvish/Gray/Lester/Graveman(Chatwood/Alzolay/Mills* also competing)

 

Kimbrel/Wick/Estevez/Ryan/Chatwood/Lopez/AAA

 

Hedges/Hoerner/Descalso/Kemp/Happ/Margot

Sign me up for this. You included Happ in a trade and have him on the roster though, which did you mean to do? But yeah it’s a fun exercise anyways, like you said with the spend all the money on Rendon then figure it out. I love your Q to San Diego trade. Him and Willy are really the two keys to making it all work to get something immediately useful back for that also cost less money.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Since I'm all-out procrastinating by thinking about unlikely outcomes(there is no chance they're signing Rendon), what happens if we try run prevention uber alles?

 

Grandal 16M AAV

Rendon 28M AAV

Shogo 8M AAV

Bryant for Soroka and Ian Anderson

Contreras for Luzardo

 

 

 

Shogo

Rendon

Rizzo

Baez

Schwarber

Grandal

Bote/Hoerner

Heyward

 

Hendricks/Darvish/Soroka/Lester/Q

 

Kimbrel/Luzardo/Wick/Ryan/Chatwood/Anderson(or AAA)/AAA

 

Anderson and possibly Luzardo are possible rotation options after Q and Lester leave the following season too.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

"fix the rest of the roster after spending all free money on Rendon" is a fun game.

 

Quintana for Margot and Hedges +5.5M

Almora for Yoan Lopez (gonna beat this one into the ground) +1.2M

Contreras and Happ for Gray and Estevez -1.7M

Pick up Graveman's option

 

Rendon 3B

Bryant RF

Rizzo 1B

Baez SS

Schwarber LF

Heyward/Happ/Margot CF

Caratini/Hedges C

Bote/Hoerner 2B

 

Hendricks/Darvish/Gray/Lester/Graveman(Chatwood/Alzolay/Mills* also competing)

 

Kimbrel/Wick/Estevez/Ryan/Chatwood/Lopez/AAA

 

Hedges/Hoerner/Descalso/Kemp/Happ/Margot

Sign me up for this. You included Happ in a trade and have him on the roster though, which did you mean to do? But yeah it’s a fun exercise anyways, like you said with the spend all the money on Rendon then figure it out. I love your Q to San Diego trade. Him and Willy are really the two keys to making it all work to get something immediately useful back for that also cost less money.

 

Whoops, included him in the CF rotation at the end, he gets included in the name of trade realism.

[Derwood]

It's going to be 4 1/2 months of this, isn't it? If this off season is anything like last year, players aren't going to start signing until January at the earliest

[Backtobanks]

Almora for Yoan Lopez? Why would the Diamondbacks do this deal?

[Cubswin11]

It's going to be 4 1/2 months of this, isn't it? If this off season is anything like last year, players aren't going to start signing until January at the earliest

Some guys will take long to sign (Cole and Rendon probably take a while and Castellanos seems like a guy who doesn’t sign until February, he seems like he’ll be in a Moustakas situation) but it’s not like moves don’t happen starting in November (like the margin moves we need to do). I’d expect us to be doing some stuff pretty early, especially the trades.

[Cubswin11]

MLBTR projects $11.8 mil for Cesar Hernandez in arbitration. I’d assume that’s a non-tender coming and as I’ve mentioned before I’d be really interested in adding him once he hits FA. Jon Gray is at $5.6, fwiw, since he’s a target of many.

[Post Count Padder]

If the Phillies don't Non-tender Hernandez, a swap of him for Chatwood makes a lot of sense for both teams. I know it's been mentioned before. I just feel like bringing it up again.

 

Russell as good as gone. I feel like there's a deal to be had in which we send Almora to someone for a useful reliever.

[Deeg]

I feel like there's a deal to be had in which we send Almora to someone for a useful reliever.

 

After that team's GM has had some sort of serious brain injury, presumably?

[Cubswin11]

I feel like there's a deal to be had in which we send Almora to someone for a useful reliever.

 

After that team's GM has had some sort of serious brain injury, presumably?

My hope for moving him is to find another Wick type who’s fallen out of favor or a Monty type.

[Cubswin11]

Sherman had this blurb today in his article today, seems like there’s some smoke with this speculation since we keep hearing it.

 

There would be little surprise if Chicago tried to change the dynamic with a significant move — say, trading Kris Bryant.

 

 

Edited October 12, 2019 by Cubswin11

[Cubswin11]

Teams that even have the prospects to maybe kinda sorta start building an offer for Bryant, no order:

 

Seattle - Kelenic, Gilbert

Rays - Wander Franco, Liberatore

Angels - Adell, ???

Braves - Anderson, Waters, ??

Tigers - Mize, Manning, ??

Athletics - Luzardo, Puk, ???

Padres - Abrams, Gore :drool:

White Sox - Robert, ??

Doyers - Lux, May?, Smith?

Orioles - Rutschman, DL Hall, ??

Nats - Robles, Kieboom, ??

 

I got lazy after that, seems dumb

I don’t see the Tigers, Orioles, Seattle, and maybe the Padres and White Sox having any interest in giving up prospects for 2 years of KB given where they are in the competitive cycle.

[Cubswin11]

https://www.mlb.com/news/non-tender-candidates-2019-2020-offseason

 

Not not interested in Sanchez, Gausman, Bradley Jr., Treinen, and Hernandez outright. Pillar or Panik can make sense in alot of the least exciting scenarios probably

 

Last year's potential non-tenders had interesting names before the actual non-tenders happened and most of those guys got a contract

Pillar, JBJ and Hernandez are the only guys I’d be interested in going after as FA if they’re non-tendered off that list. Panik horsefeathering sucks, just keep Descalso. Sanchez or Gausman as minor league options I’d be open to but wouldn’t give them major league deals. Treinen might just be broken (he has some weird back injury), he’d have to be free essentially for me to want him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If you put together the team control, arb cost, position, and trade assets needed to be worth it, the only Bryant partner that makes sense is the Braves. Mayybe the Phillies or Angels.

[Cubswin11]

If you put together the team control, arb cost, position, and trade assets needed to be worth it, the only Bryant partner that makes sense is the Braves. Mayybe the Phillies or Angels.

The Angels for Adell, Fletcher, Buttrey and a lotto ticket or safe floor guy is something I’d do. Probably even take Cozart back to help them with some money. I don’t think the Angels would do this though.

[Derwood]

I'm not interested in trading Bryant for lottery tickets

[Cubswin11]

I'm not interested in trading Bryant for lottery tickets

I’m not really either, but think those are the only trades out there. Don’t see a MLB for MLB move, like him for Mookie doesn’t make sense because of the years left.

[Bertz]

Since MLBTR put out their Arb numbers, I've been playing with salary for the next few offseasons, and next offseason looks really tight. I have payroll right around $200M already if we exercise Lester's option (more on that in a minute). And that's BEFORE committing additional money this winter. That leads me to a couple of conclusions:

 

- We're probably going to want to pick up Lester's 2021 option. It has a $10M buyout, which means in essence it's only a $15M commitment. If he's solid this year that's probably worth it to avoid having 3 open rotation spots next winter

- We basically have to trade for a cost controlled starter some time in the next 18 months. I like our MiLB SP options more than most, but even I don't see 2-3 quality SP's emerging prior to OD 2021

- We do need at least one internal guy to emerge though. Ideally a prospect like Alzolay, but even hitting on Graveman or someone in that vein would be adequate

- So many of the position players being in arb means their prices are escalating quickly. When looking at additions this winter, targets who replace an arb guy are ideal

- All this emphasis on young pitching means improving our framing would be especially impactful

 

Putting this all together, and I'm firmly on the Willson for a young starter train. TT threw out Willson to the A's for Luzardo and I think that is absolutely perfect. Here's my current plan:

 

- Willson for Luzardo + Treinen

- Sign Yasmani Grandal 4/64

- Sign Shogo Akiyama 4/32

- Trade Chatwood for salary relief

- Sign Will Smith 3/39

 

CF - Akiyama

3B - Bryant

1B - Rizzo

SS - Javy

LF - Schwarber

C - Grandal

RF - Heyward

2B - Nico

BN - Bote, Happ, Vic, Almora, Descalso

 

SP - Yu, Kyle, Q, Jon, Luzardo

 

With Lester's age, Yu's injury history, Luzardo's lack of innings, and the fact that we need to evaluate options for 2021, I would plan to use a 6th starter for much of the year

 

Pen - Kimbrel, Smith, Treinen, Wick, Wieck, Ryan, Underwood, Mills

 

Treinen's a little risky considering we're already banking on a Kimbrel bounce back, but he was so good prior to 2019 and his velo is fine, so I'm good with it.. Underwood's spot is likely the Iowa shuttle, but he gets first crack since he's out of options.

[Cubswin11]

Since MLBTR put out their Arb numbers, I've been playing with salary for the next few offseasons, and next offseason looks really tight. I have payroll right around $200M already if we exercise Lester's option (more on that in a minute). And that's BEFORE committing additional money this winter.

How are you getting to $200 mil going in 2021 with just internal guys? Spotrac has us at $94 right now. That doesn’t include the minimum $10 on Lester but includes Descalo’s $3.5 team option so let’s call it $100 mil before arbitration. We don’t have $100 mil in arbitration going in to next year, do we? Seems like that number is closer to $50-60.