2020 roster

[squally1313]

 

Mostly because I looked at the bench and didn't like that the only lefty with pop was a catcher. Considering all 3 starting OF are LH in this scenario and Happ and Almora are both traded, I think you might be right that RH would be probably be preferable.

 

It's really unfortunate that Almora completely lost his one ability (hitting LHP), and Happ hasn't had it the last two years. Makes someone like Castellanos that much more valuable, but I still don't think you can justify spending limited resources there when you have a left handed version in Schwarber already on the roster. Without getting into the details, picking up a starter like Grey purely through prospects and the Happs/Botes of the world, and then using Contreras to find a legit starting RH outfielder would create a lot more flexibility out there.

 

The other way to think about this is the option cubswin11 keeps pushing, which is just keeping Almora for that spot since he'll probably bounce back, and lefty mashing outfielder is possibly the easiest thing in the baseball world to find if not.

 

That's fair, as much as I hate Almora. Schwarber at a .750 OPS with marginal defense and Heyward at .553 regardless of defense...neither are positives. Would be nice to see a bounce back from Bote against LHP too...makes it easier to let KB play a corner spot 30-40 times a year. Schwarber/Happ/Heyward should be fine against RHP, but against LHPs it gets ugly real quick.

[jersey cubs fan]

The other way to think about this is the option cubswin11 keeps pushing, which is just keeping Almora

 

 

[Sammy Sofa]

Even though he's still alive, Jim Hendry is looking down on all of this and laughing.

[Cubswin11]

 

The other way to think about this is the option cubswin11 keeps pushing, which is just keeping Almora for that spot since he'll probably bounce back, and lefty mashing outfielder is possibly the easiest thing in the baseball world to find if not.

Excuse me

 

I mean if custom ranks weren't broken I would've made yours "Mr. Almora" a long time ago, we get it, you love the guy

http://nosebleedsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/blas.gif

[Cubswin11]

Yu retweeted this

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Brian]

initial arb estimates out from MLBTR.... so using them here's the Cubs 2020 payroll

 

Lester - 20

Heyward - 21

Darvish - 22

Bryant - 18.5

Chatwood - 13

Rizzo - 14.5

Quintana - 10.5

Kimbrel - 16

Hendricks - 12

Baez - 9.3

Russell - 5.1

Schwarber - 8

Descalso - 2.5

Contreras - 4.5

Almora - 1.8

Bote - .96

 

Italics the arb estimates, bolded the Q & Rizzo options

 

Total: 179.66

 

Also these otpions

 

Graverman - 3

Phelps - 5

 

Also not sure where the Morrow (probable) buyout fits in

 

Morrow - 3

[Cubswin11]

I see some nice savings in non-tendering Almora and Russell.

[Deeg]

Akiyama is a FA and his own team plus at least one more here want to keep him, so figure he'll get a domestic offer in the $6-7M per year range, 4-5 years. If you want him that's the minimum it will take.

 

Very solid ballplayer. Good fit for us.

[Cubswin11]

Akiyama is a FA and his own team plus at least one more here want to keep him, so figure he'll get a domestic offer in the $6-7M per year range, 4-5 years. If you want him that's the minimum it will take.

 

Very solid ballplayer. Good fit for us.

The BN article mentioned he has a 3/21 (or 23) offer on the table from his current team and there’s another team over there who may offer him something. So yeah I’m guessing it would take 4-5 years in the $30-40 mil range to get him over here.

[Bertz]

initial arb estimates out from MLBTR.... so using them here's the Cubs 2020 payroll

 

Lester - 20

Heyward - 21

Darvish - 22

Bryant - 18.5

Chatwood - 13

Rizzo - 14.5

Quintana - 10.5

Kimbrel - 16

Hendricks - 12

Baez - 9.3

Russell - 5.1

Schwarber - 8

Descalso - 2.5

Contreras - 4.5

Almora - 1.8

Bote - .96

 

Italics the arb estimates, bolded the Q & Rizzo options

 

Total: 179.66

 

Also these otpions

 

Graverman - 3

Phelps - 5

 

Also not sure where the Morrow (probable) buyout fits in

 

Morrow - 3

 

This is great. To expand on this, here's what we're looking at for Luxury Tax purposes:

 

Position Players ($92.0M)

 

C - Willson (4.5), Vic (0.6)

1B - Rizzo (14.5)

2B - Bote (3), Kemp (0.6), Descalso (2.5)

SS - Javy (9.3), Russell (5.1)

3B - KB (18.5)

LF - Schwarber (8) Happ (0.6)

CF - Almora (1.8)

RF - Heyward (23)

 

Rotation ($84.0M)

 

SP - Jon (25.9), Yu (21), Kyle (13.9) Q (10.5), Chatwood (12.7)

 

Bullpen ($19.0M)

 

CL - Kimbrel (14.3)

SU - Ryan (1.1), Wick (0.6)

MR - Wieck (0.6), Underwood (0.6), Norwood (0.6), Maples (0.6)

LR - Mills (0.6)

 

Other ($16.8M)

40 Man - 2.3

Insurance 14.5

Also possibly some Brach/Morrow money?

 

Grand Total - $211.8M

 

Russell seems a fairly safe bet to be a goner, but also there's probably a little bit missing here and there from this (guys making more than the minimum, Brach/Morrow, etc.), so let's say $210 for a a nice round number. Last year I believe we opened at around $230 and ended at $240 after Kimbrel and Castellanos.

[Deeg]

Akiyama is a FA and his own team plus at least one more here want to keep him, so figure he'll get a domestic offer in the $6-7M per year range, 4-5 years. If you want him that's the minimum it will take.

 

Very solid ballplayer. Good fit for us.

The BN article mentioned he has a 3/21 (or 23) offer on the table from his current team and there’s another team over there who may offer him something. So yeah I’m guessing it would take 4-5 years in the $30-40 mil range to get him over here.

 

Who knows where the budget will be with so much Ricketts money tied up in the Trump re-election campaign, but in a vacuum something like 4/30 for Akiyama would be a great gambIe. If you want to focus on situational hitting and defense, sign Japanese players because it’s drilled into them from the time they’re tiny kids. Akiyama is a significant talent - I’d expect his power numbers to slide and his age is a concern, but he’s so good defensively in CF that even if he lost a step he’d still be above average. I’d put the over-under on his offensive numbers in MLB at something like .275/345/425.

[Cubswin11]

Akiyama is a FA and his own team plus at least one more here want to keep him, so figure he'll get a domestic offer in the $6-7M per year range, 4-5 years. If you want him that's the minimum it will take.

 

Very solid ballplayer. Good fit for us.

The BN article mentioned he has a 3/21 (or 23) offer on the table from his current team and there’s another team over there who may offer him something. So yeah I’m guessing it would take 4-5 years in the $30-40 mil range to get him over here.

 

Who knows where the budget will be with so much Ricketts money tied up in the Trump re-election campaign, but in a vacuum something like 4/30 for Akiyama would be a great gambIe. If you want to focus on situational hitting and defense, sign Japanese players because it’s drilled into them from the time they’re tiny kids. Akiyama is a significant talent - I’d expect his power numbers to slide and his age is a concern, but he’s so good defensively in CF that even if he lost a step he’d still be above average. I’d put the over-under on his offensive numbers in MLB at something like .275/345/425.

We should have ~$30 mil to play with even with Ricketts horsefeathers. But yeah that seems like a fair slash line to project. After I read up on him and saw some videos I basically thought a decent expectation would be what Heyward does vs RHP with plus defense and base running.

[Deeg]

One KISS plan for the offseason would be to sign Akiyama, trade Schwarber for Merrifield in some sort of configuration that makes sense for both teams and re-sign Castellanos. Use Kitayama in CF and Merrifield at 2B against RHP and Merrifield in CF and Hoerner at 2B against LHP (though Akiyama is not an extreme-splits hitter).

 

My worry there is that it leaves you a little light from the left side with only Shogo, Rizzo and Heyward. But it could be a much more balanced lineup in other respects. And Caratini will get some run against RHP if he isn't traded.

[Deeg]

Trading Schwarber to pay Castellanos is still some kind of robbing Peter to pay Paul thing, right? Former top prospects as IFers turned hopefully average-ish defensive OF who hopefully magically put it all together in the second half of 2019...OTOH Schwarber did it longer, is cheaper, is probably the team's best LH power bat now, is a year younger, is likely the better defensive player...

 

If you believe in Schwarber's 2nd half. Castellanos has been a consistently good bat for multiple seasons, his numbers have been depressed by playing in an awful hitter's park, and he's still in his prime and generally speaking much more of a contact hitter than even good Schwarber. Defensively? Pick your poison. I don't honestly see much difference.

 

Ultimately, what might drive the decision is that all Castellanos costs is money and Schwarber probably has decent trade value after his strong finish. If indeed you could get Merrifield for +/- Schwarber (which may or may not be true), you're not swapping Schwarber for Castellanos - you're swapping Schwarber and $$$ for Castellanos and Merrifield. And on paper at least, you couldn't draw up a guy more ideally suited to address our weaknesses on both sides of the ball than Merrifield.

[Cubswin11]

Trading Schwarber to pay Castellanos is still some kind of robbing Peter to pay Paul thing, right? Former top prospects as IFers turned hopefully average-ish defensive OF who hopefully magically put it all together in the second half of 2019...OTOH Schwarber did it longer, is cheaper, is probably the team's best LH power bat now, is a year younger, is likely the better defensive player...

 

If you believe in Schwarber's 2nd half. Castellanos has been a consistently good bat for multiple seasons, his numbers have been depressed by playing in an awful hitter's park, and he's still in his prime and generally speaking much more of a contact hitter than even good Schwarber. Defensively? Pick your poison. I don't honestly see much difference.

 

Ultimately, what might drive the decision is that all Castellanos costs is money and Schwarber probably has decent trade value after his strong finish. If indeed you could get Merrifield for +/- Schwarber (which may or may not be true), you're not swapping Schwarber for Castellanos - you're swapping Schwarber and $$$ for Castellanos and Merrifield. And on paper at least, you couldn't draw up a guy more ideally suited to address our weaknesses on both sides of the ball than Merrifield.

I don’t think Schwarber would be valued enough by the market to bring back Merrifield or a similar player. Schwarber probably ends up providing us more value being kept than whatever he brings back, imo.

[Deeg]

That's why you test the market and find out. But if you bring him back, I don't see any way you can sign Castellanos.

 

If you kept Schwarber and signed Akiyama, you'd at the bare minimum need one hit-first OF option from the right side. And if you don't trade Schwarber you pretty much punt your only currency to meaningfully improve via trade without sacrificing Contreras or Bryant.

[Cubswin11]

That's why you test the market and find out. But if you bring him back, I don't see any way you can sign Castellanos.

 

If you kept Schwarber and signed Akiyama, you'd at the bare minimum need one hit-first OF option from the right side. And if you don't trade Schwarber you pretty much punt your only currency to meaningfully improve via trade without sacrificing Contreras or Bryant.

Point 1, for sure. Doesn’t hurt to see what’s out there, but I think we’d be underwhelmed. Agree that it’s an either/or with Schwarbs and Nick and I’d just lean keeping Schwarbs over using up a significant amount of money available this offseason to bring back Nick.

 

On the second point, I agree. Margot would be the ideal target there but Pillar could likely be had (who’s at least what we thought Almora could be). I also think Schwarbs isn’t close to the trade currency that even Willy is, obviously he isn’t in KB’s stratosphere. Willy is the guy to move that could be relatively easily replaced and also bring us back something(s) good, imo.

[Deeg]

I think they need to focus on the superstars very likely hitting FA through the 2022 FA class - Cole, Betts, Lindor, Sndergaard, Bryant, Baez - and find the next Arrieta and Castellanos/Merrifield rather than pay top dollar or a cheap 3 WAR LH power to get the current one until those bigger fish are sorted out

 

Oh, is that all? Should be easy! :)

 

I think you're underestimating how much park effects have depressed Castellanos' power numbers. He hits the ball hard, consistently, to all fields. We need hitters like that. If we signed him for 4 years I'm pretty confident he'd be a very productive bat.

 

I'm very much open to trading Contreras in the right deal (like maybe the Mets) but I'm skeptIcal that this FO has the nerve to do it. My fear is that keeping Schwarber means another season of shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic and blaming the coaches manager.

[ConstableRabbit]

horsefeathers it let’s just get Rendon.

[Deeg]

Maybe you're right about Castellanos, maybe I am - time will tell. But Castellanos is not "early 30's" - he's a 27-YO free agent, which is highly unusual. And he's no version of Schwarber, or vice-versa - they're totally different sorts of hitters in almost every way.

[Bertz]

horsefeathers it let’s just get Rendon.

 

There's a real part of me that wants to build a 6 run per game offense and just kinda figure it out as we go along with the pitching and defense

 

1B - Rizzo

3B - Rendon

RF - Bryant

LF - Schwarber

SS - Javy

C - Willson

2B - Happ

CF - Nico

 

BN - Vic, Bote, Heyward, Descalso, Kemp

[Cubswin11]

horsefeathers it let’s just get Rendon.

Seriously, just suck it up for 1 year and sign him and go with a god mode offense. He’s your hedge against KB leaving in 2 years too and there’s plenty of money coming off after this coming year.

[Backtobanks]

I don't think there's any way we should be realistically talking about Merrifield, Gray, Grandal, etc. I can't see PTR paying for Grandal when catcher is a position of strength (even with a trade). If their respective teams shop Gray or Merrifield, teams with way more top prospects would jump on them.

I've been suggesting trading Schwarber for a few years now, but I've pretty much accepted the fact that he's probably more valuable to us than whatever we could get in return.

[jersey cubs fan]

I've been suggesting trading Schwarber for a few years now,

but I've pretty much accepted the fact that he's probably more valuable to us than whatever we could get in return.

 

[Cubswin11]

and find the next Arrieta

Pivetta *cough* Pivetta