Nick Castellanos is a bad mother[bleep]

[Ding Dong Johnson]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Brian]

https://www.instagram.com/p/B1xdQJgB4rT/

[UMFan83]

So lately, mostly because the Cubs have been so annoying off and on, I've pretty much ignored the start of games and only tune in during the last few innings if its close or they are winning. If I had more time I'd watch more regardless of how frustrating they can be but just not prioritizing it as much right now.

 

Reason I'm bringing this up is because I feel like I've somehow missed much of the Castellanos craze. I mean I know he's killing it but I feel like I never catch his HRs or hits live, its always something I watch highlights on the next day.

 

So with that observation, I went to his B-R page and found this:

 

 

1. This includes his Tigers numbers, not sure how to break that up

2. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, in fact given how the rest of the Cubs have seemed to start slow offensively, it may be good

3. His career numbers in these situations are similar those slightly less extreme (.899-782-.700)

4. I'm aware that this is probably how most players are with specialized relievers dominating late games.

 

So doesn't really mean anything just an interesting stat.

[abohnhoff]

So what does a hypothetical Castellanos signing look like? 3/$45m? 4/$60m?

[squally1313]

So lately, mostly because the Cubs have been so annoying off and on, I've pretty much ignored the start of games and only tune in during the last few innings if its close or they are winning. If I had more time I'd watch more regardless of how frustrating they can be but just not prioritizing it as much right now.

 

Reason I'm bringing this up is because I feel like I've somehow missed much of the Castellanos craze. I mean I know he's killing it but I feel like I never catch his HRs or hits live, its always something I watch highlights on the next day.

 

So with that observation, I went to his B-R page and found this:

 

 

1. This includes his Tigers numbers, not sure how to break that up

2. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, in fact given how the rest of the Cubs have seemed to start slow offensively, it may be good

3. His career numbers in these situations are similar those slightly less extreme (.899-782-.700)

4. I'm aware that this is probably how most players are with specialized relievers dominating late games.

 

So doesn't really mean anything just an interesting stat.

 

I think I was able to figure it out on FG...no idea how to embed, but here's what I think his splits are for just the Cubs for innings 1-3, 4-6, 7-9

 

1-3: .447/.481/1.085 (that's slugging, not total). 9 HRs in 52 PAs

4-6: .283/.283/.543. 3 HRs in 46 PAs

7-9: .303/.361/.424. 0 HRs in 36 PAs

 

So essentially, you're pretty much right on. Runs are runs, so I'll obviously take the production. From however they calculate leverage, he only has 7 high leverage PAs with the Cubs so far (batting behind the pitcher and Heyward...who knew?!?!), and has gone 2/7 with two singles. .983 OPS in medium leverage, 1.200 OPS in low leverage, which also makes sense.

 

Here's the link if you want to play around with it more...really cool system to mess around with.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=11737&position=3B/OF&splitArr=&strgroup=season&statgroup=2&startDate=2019-08-01&endDate=2019-09-04&filter=&statType=player&autoPt=true&players=&sort=NaN,1

[Andy]

So what does a hypothetical Castellanos signing look like? 3/$45m? 4/$60m?

I might be naive but I feel like he can get more than that. Maybe not a ton more, but more.

[sneakypower]

So what does a hypothetical Castellanos signing look like? 3/$45m? 4/$60m?

JD Martinez seems like a near-perfect analogue, but all bets are off in this newfound era of collusion

 

so, maybe?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So what does a hypothetical Castellanos signing look like? 3/$45m? 4/$60m?

JD Martinez seems like a near-perfect analogue, but all bets are off in this newfound era of collusion

 

so, maybe?

 

Martinez was a fair amount better with the bat for a long while, although he was 2 years older. 4/60 feels like a decent starting point to me, I wouldn't be surprised with AAV going up a few million or a 5th year, maybe both in a hotter market.

[Cubswin11]

So what does a hypothetical Castellanos signing look like? 3/$45m? 4/$60m?

I think because of his age he gets at least 4 years, somewhere between 4-5 years guaranteed and $16-18 in AAV makes sense to me and I absolutely do that for him. Have to remember there’s a lot of guys with his profile available this offseason too which should keep him a little cheaper. JD can opt out then there’s bat first/DH/Corner OF/1B guys like Abreu, Thames, Asdrubal, Alex Gordon, Ozuna, Avi Garcia, Markakis, Howie Kendrick, Nelson Cruz and EE who all either are outright FA or can be FA with options. It’s a crowded market for that type of player.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

1. Which one of you was worried about his production if he got traded to us because he had to learn a new league and pitchers?

 

2. I feel like Cox is out there somewhere smiling, telling himself that Nick has proven the point that some trade deadline guys turn it on in a new situation. Of course, he also might have to admit that Addison Russell is not one of the #Best25 and that he is a better minor league hitter than MLB one.

 

3. Signing Nick to a long-term contract makes me uncomfortable just because I think TT is still not a big fan of long-term Nick and he seems to be a better GM than Jed Hoyer at times.

[squally1313]

So what does a hypothetical Castellanos signing look like? 3/$45m? 4/$60m?

I think because of his age he gets at least 4 years, somewhere between 4-5 years guaranteed and $16-18 in AAV makes sense to me and I absolutely do that for him. Have to remember there’s a lot of guys with his profile available this offseason too which should keep him a little cheaper. JD can opt out then there’s bat first/DH/Corner OF/1B guys like Abreu, Thames, Asdrubal, Alex Gordon, Ozuna, Avi Garcia, Markakis, Howie Kendrick, Nelson Cruz and EE who all either are outright FA or can be FA with options. It’s a crowded market for that type of player.

If you want to do that deal, do you want to go him and Schwarber in the corners for the foreseeable future? And if not, do you think Castellanos at something like 4/72 plus whatever you get for Schwarber is more valuable than Schwarber for the next two years at like...$12m total?

 

I probably go option 1 and hope Heyward holds up in center (along with hoping Almora can recover to a serviceable backup or picking up a glove first guy).

[Cubswin11]

So what does a hypothetical Castellanos signing look like? 3/$45m? 4/$60m?

I think because of his age he gets at least 4 years, somewhere between 4-5 years guaranteed and $16-18 in AAV makes sense to me and I absolutely do that for him. Have to remember there’s a lot of guys with his profile available this offseason too which should keep him a little cheaper. JD can opt out then there’s bat first/DH/Corner OF/1B guys like Abreu, Thames, Asdrubal, Alex Gordon, Ozuna, Avi Garcia, Markakis, Howie Kendrick, Nelson Cruz and EE who all either are outright FA or can be FA with options. It’s a crowded market for that type of player.

If you want to do that deal, do you want to go him and Schwarber in the corners for the foreseeable future? And if not, do you think Castellanos at something like 4/72 plus whatever you get for Schwarber is more valuable than Schwarber for the next two years at like...$12m total?

 

I probably go option 1 and hope Heyward holds up in center (along with hoping Almora can recover to a serviceable backup or picking up a glove first guy).

I’d prefer keeping both and think we’d get by fine with the defense, we’d need Almora to somehow figure out a way to be a good player or find a defense first CF’er for late in games. Idk what’s more valuable though if it’s a choice between Schwarbs for less or Nick for more +Schwarbs trade because it seems hard to judge how Schwarber would be valued in a trade. You’d think he could bring back a cheap, good reliever and maybe an A ball lotto ticket or a cheap/controlled SP that’s a middle-back of rotation type.

 

It also wouldn’t surprise me if Castellanos only ends up getting 2 or 3 years. Murphy and Lemahieu both just got 2/24, Khris Davis signed for 2/33 in season, Lowrie got 2/20, Marwin 2/21. He seems like he’d be valued closer to guys like that than a JD Martinez type deal in the new normal we’ve seen in offseasons. Maybe he only ends up costing 2-3 years at $35-50 mil.

[jersey cubs fan]

1. Which one of you was worried about his production if he got traded to us because he had to learn a new league and pitchers?

 

2. I feel like Cox is out there somewhere smiling, telling himself that Nick has proven the point that some trade deadline guys turn it on in a new situation. Of course, he also might have to admit that Addison Russell is not one of the #Best25 and that he is a better minor league hitter than MLB one.

 

3. Signing Nick to a long-term contract makes me uncomfortable just because I think TT is still not a big fan of long-term Nick and he seems to be a better GM than Jed Hoyer at times.

That's quite a claim in number 1.

 

As for the rest...

 

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2019/08/01/nick-castellanos-should-hit-a-lot-more-homers-at-wrigley/

[squally1313]

I think because of his age he gets at least 4 years, somewhere between 4-5 years guaranteed and $16-18 in AAV makes sense to me and I absolutely do that for him. Have to remember there’s a lot of guys with his profile available this offseason too which should keep him a little cheaper. JD can opt out then there’s bat first/DH/Corner OF/1B guys like Abreu, Thames, Asdrubal, Alex Gordon, Ozuna, Avi Garcia, Markakis, Howie Kendrick, Nelson Cruz and EE who all either are outright FA or can be FA with options. It’s a crowded market for that type of player.

If you want to do that deal, do you want to go him and Schwarber in the corners for the foreseeable future? And if not, do you think Castellanos at something like 4/72 plus whatever you get for Schwarber is more valuable than Schwarber for the next two years at like...$12m total?

 

I probably go option 1 and hope Heyward holds up in center (along with hoping Almora can recover to a serviceable backup or picking up a glove first guy).

I’d prefer keeping both and think we’d get by fine with the defense, we’d need Almora to somehow figure out a way to be a good player or find a defense first CF’er for late in games. Idk what’s more valuable though if it’s a choice between Schwarbs for less or Nick for more +Schwarbs trade because it seems hard to judge how Schwarber would be valued in a trade. You’d think he could bring back a cheap, good reliever and maybe an A ball lotto ticket or a cheap/controlled SP that’s a middle-back of rotation type.

 

It also wouldn’t surprise me if Castellanos only ends up getting 2 or 3 years. Murphy and Lemahieu both just got 2/24, Khris Davis signed for 2/33 in season, Lowrie got 2/20, Marwin 2/21. He seems like he’d be valued closer to guys like that than a JD Martinez type deal in the new normal we’ve seen in offseasons. Maybe he only ends up costing 2-3 years at $35-50 mil.

 

Yeah I would love to keep both, just not sure if the FO is comfortable with that given their past emphasis on defense. Maybe they saw something in Nick they thought they could fix (a la Fowler). We've somehow been the best defensive team, per FG, in baseball since the trade, however the outfield is only ranked 16th (2nd place at first and second (somehow), 3rd at short).

 

Trading Schwarber also requires filling that spot in the field, and if they go that route it would imply that wouldn't settle for poor defense, so it's not something that can be fixed by moving Contreras out there. The projections have them being about the same player offensively going forward. I can see the appeal in both directions...I think it depends on what else is out there and what holes need to be filled (starter, probably a second baseman, bullpen as always), which is a much bigger conversation.

[Sammy Sofa]

Move Contreras to 1B, trade Rizzo for baller CF, thank me tomorrow.

[Cubswin11]

If you want to do that deal, do you want to go him and Schwarber in the corners for the foreseeable future? And if not, do you think Castellanos at something like 4/72 plus whatever you get for Schwarber is more valuable than Schwarber for the next two years at like...$12m total?

 

I probably go option 1 and hope Heyward holds up in center (along with hoping Almora can recover to a serviceable backup or picking up a glove first guy).

I’d prefer keeping both and think we’d get by fine with the defense, we’d need Almora to somehow figure out a way to be a good player or find a defense first CF’er for late in games. Idk what’s more valuable though if it’s a choice between Schwarbs for less or Nick for more +Schwarbs trade because it seems hard to judge how Schwarber would be valued in a trade. You’d think he could bring back a cheap, good reliever and maybe an A ball lotto ticket or a cheap/controlled SP that’s a middle-back of rotation type.

 

It also wouldn’t surprise me if Castellanos only ends up getting 2 or 3 years. Murphy and Lemahieu both just got 2/24, Khris Davis signed for 2/33 in season, Lowrie got 2/20, Marwin 2/21. He seems like he’d be valued closer to guys like that than a JD Martinez type deal in the new normal we’ve seen in offseasons. Maybe he only ends up costing 2-3 years at $35-50 mil.

 

Yeah I would love to keep both, just not sure if the FO is comfortable with that given their past emphasis on defense. Maybe they saw something in Nick they thought they could fix (a la Fowler). We've somehow been the best defensive team, per FG, in baseball since the trade, however the outfield is only ranked 16th (2nd place at first and second (somehow), 3rd at short).

 

Trading Schwarber also requires filling that spot in the field, and if they go that route it would imply that wouldn't settle for poor defense, so it's not something that can be fixed by moving Contreras out there. The projections have them being about the same player offensively going forward. I can see the appeal in both directions...I think it depends on what else is out there and what holes need to be filled (starter, probably a second baseman, bullpen as always), which is a much bigger conversation.

Yeah the eye test seems to tell me that he shouldn’t be nearly as bad a fielder as the numbers suggest. He’s a good athlete and moves well, maybe they see something in positioning or working on him getting better reads/jumps.

 

I really would roll the dice with him and Schwarbs in the corners next year, they’ve done it for a month+ now and it doesn’t seem to be hurting us. I hope they’d fill 2B with a Whit trade, SP with one of the guys in the massive heap of the Pineda, Hamels, Odorizzi, Keuchel, Gibson, Roark, type guys and then do a Cishek level cost signing for the bullpen and then back fill it internally/cheaper options on top of bringing Nick back as my preferred offseason.

[squally1313]

Move Contreras to 1B, trade Rizzo for baller CF, thank me tomorrow.

I appreciate Sofa's level of fandom where he knows enough about the Cubs to conclude that they all suck, but just assumes there are infinite create a players in the MLB universe of every conceivable skill set ready (and available) to come in and fix all our problems.

[Sammy Sofa]

Move Contreras to 1B, trade Rizzo for baller CF, thank me tomorrow.

I appreciate Sofa's level of fandom where he knows enough about the Cubs to conclude that they all suck, but just assumes there are infinite create a players in the MLB universe of every conceivable skill set ready (and available) to come in and fix all our problems.

 

Me on baseball:

 

[Bryants Disco Ball]

1. Which one of you was worried about his production if he got traded to us because he had to learn a new league and pitchers?

 

2. I feel like Cox is out there somewhere smiling, telling himself that Nick has proven the point that some trade deadline guys turn it on in a new situation. Of course, he also might have to admit that Addison Russell is not one of the #Best25 and that he is a better minor league hitter than MLB one.

 

3. Signing Nick to a long-term contract makes me uncomfortable just because I think TT is still not a big fan of long-term Nick and he seems to be a better GM than Jed Hoyer at times.

That's quite a claim in number 1.

 

As for the rest...

 

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2019/08/01/nick-castellanos-should-hit-a-lot-more-homers-at-wrigley/

 

I'm confused by your point on No. 1, Jersey. One poster on here was worried about his production because of that reason, and I can't remember who, and I want to playfully be able to make fun of them now.

 

As far as the man I think some are referring to as "Big Dick" I do think he's a professional hitter who could flourish with the long ball now that he's out of Detroit. I also think he hits the ball hard a lot and will still get a ton of doubles, and for meatballs, he seems to have more "energy" on a team with a bunch of dead butts except for Willy and Javy.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Also, I think it can be concluded that Theo does much better on trades than free agent signings. There have been a few clunkers, but for the most part, the man does really well with it and should do more of that.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

I'm confused by your point on No. 1, Jersey. One poster on here was worried about his production because of that reason, and I can't remember who, and I want to playfully be able to make fun of them now.

 

I'm saying the person who did it made a weird claim.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

 

I'm confused by your point on No. 1, Jersey. One poster on here was worried about his production because of that reason, and I can't remember who, and I want to playfully be able to make fun of them now.

 

I'm saying the person who did it made a weird claim.

 

Oh, gotcha. My bad.

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

I have heard Nick Castellanos really likes it here in Chicago and wants to re-sign badly. Boras is probably advising him not to openly admit that and just see what transpires in the offseason. No qualifying offer will help him. I don't think Theo has even started discussions on a new deal for Castellanos.

 

I have this sneaky suspicion the White Sox are going to push really hard to sign him. They'll probably come up short like always.

[Andy]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Brian]

what is growing out of Kris' head