Week 2: Seahawks @ Bears MNF on ESPN 7:15PM

[jersey cubs fan]

[jersey cubs fan]

 

 

Right, I get they lost draft picks, but people are acting like their window is shut after this year. Mitch will get better, and I think a lot better. A slightly above average QB can win the Super Bowl with this defense(assuming it stays at this level). Mitch probably won't get to that point this year yet and they still will finish with 10 wins.

The problem is there will not be an influx of great talent to help make that happen. When you are counting on your team to improve over the next couple years, you generally count on draft picks and free agent signings. Well, they won't have any blue chip picks and they won't have much money to spend on free agents either. It's all on Mitch becoming very good. He can't just be good enough. He has to be very good. He's not projecting to be that at the moment.

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

 

Right, I get they lost draft picks, but people are acting like their window is shut after this year. Mitch will get better, and I think a lot better. A slightly above average QB can win the Super Bowl with this defense(assuming it stays at this level). Mitch probably won't get to that point this year yet and they still will finish with 10 wins.

The problem is there will not be an influx of great talent to help make that happen. When you are counting on your team to improve over the next couple years, you generally count on draft picks and free agent signings. Well, they won't have any blue chip picks and they won't have much money to spend on free agents either. It's all on Mitch becoming very good. He can't just be good enough. He has to be very good. He's not projecting to be that at the moment.

 

if they make the playoffs this year, and they very likely could, how far they go will dictate how good Mitch has to become. There is a lot of season left to play

[UMFan83]

 

 

Right, I get they lost draft picks, but people are acting like their window is shut after this year. Mitch will get better, and I think a lot better. A slightly above average QB can win the Super Bowl with this defense(assuming it stays at this level). Mitch probably won't get to that point this year yet and they still will finish with 10 wins.

The problem is there will not be an influx of great talent to help make that happen. When you are counting on your team to improve over the next couple years, you generally count on draft picks and free agent signings. Well, they won't have any blue chip picks and they won't have much money to spend on free agents either. It's all on Mitch becoming very good. He can't just be good enough. He has to be very good. He's not projecting to be that at the moment.

 

Right...the only way we were able to afford Mack is because of Mitch's rookie contract. If he's not the guy, we don't really have much leverage to improve at QB in FA unless we start cutting key guys, and we all know how much of a low success route that is. And we certainly don't have draft capital to get a QB...what little picks we have we can't waste on another project QB. Mitch has to be the guy.

 

That said, while I haven't seen a ton that screams elite QB so far, I have seen enough to think that he has a high floor meaning he isn't going to be a Cade McNown style flame out. With the defense as good as its looked, you could certainly see a mid-2000's type ceiling for the team even if Mitch is only a passable QB that you build an offense to limit mistakes

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Apparently there are people that aren't too happy about this win. I understand being concerned about Trubisky. But to be disappointed that a team that won 13 games over the previous 3 years didn't have a 3-score win in the 2nd game of a new regime seems a bit much.

 

Don't know what was expected. This team isn't good enough right now to expect blowout wins, even against a decimated team. But they won a game they were supposed to win. They've only had like 4-5 games in the Fox era that they were supposed to win. Having "supposed to wins" in itself is a step in the right direction. Actually winning them is a good thing.

 

Just imagine how bad this team would be without Mack.

 

The issue is this isn't a "they'll grow into it" situation. They don't have any future first round picks. They have to win with what they have. That was a good show by the defense, although they still get gashed a bit too much for an elite defense, and the weapons are obviously all there on offense. Taylor Gabriel would have been the #1 receiver on past Bears teams. It was all set up on a platter for Mitch to shine, and he didn't. I'm not upset with the 24-17 win. They covered. But I'm disappointed in Mitch's misses.

 

It is though. It's been 2 games. Granted, these are going to be the guys that are going to have to get it done in the next 3 years, but they don't have to get it done today. Even still, they have led all but 2 minutes of time so far this year.

 

Elite defenses don't last three years. You're *lucky* if an elite defense lasts one.

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

Just imagine how bad this team would be without Mack.

 

The issue is this isn't a "they'll grow into it" situation. They don't have any future first round picks. They have to win with what they have. That was a good show by the defense, although they still get gashed a bit too much for an elite defense, and the weapons are obviously all there on offense. Taylor Gabriel would have been the #1 receiver on past Bears teams. It was all set up on a platter for Mitch to shine, and he didn't. I'm not upset with the 24-17 win. They covered. But I'm disappointed in Mitch's misses.

 

It is though. It's been 2 games. Granted, these are going to be the guys that are going to have to get it done in the next 3 years, but they don't have to get it done today. Even still, they have led all but 2 minutes of time so far this year.

 

Elite defenses don't last three years. You're *lucky* if an elite defense lasts one.

 

 

lol wut

 

the definition of an elite defense is one that plays an entire season at the top of the league, not 1/2 a season or 1/4 of a season

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Sorry, I meant two. You're lucky if you get two years out of an elite defense.

 

We can't complain about Trubisky looking like balls because it's just two games, but two games from the defense (one of which they got carved up in a 4th-quarter collapse) means we should pencil them in to be elite for three years.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Sorry, I meant two. You're lucky if you get two years out of an elite defense.

 

We can't complain about Trubisky looking like balls because it's just two games, but two games from the defense (one of which they got carved up in a 4th-quarter collapse) means we should pencil them in to be elite for three years.

 

who the hell has claimed that?

 

Lets say a top 5 defense is "Elite". I would guess there are many examples of defenses remaining in the top 5 for 2 years, and likely a few for 3 years. If our first year in the top 5 is this year, Mitch has this year to show he can be good enough to really make a run at it next year. That seems logical, and a best-case scenario going into the year last summer. Would you agree to that?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't think anything involving having to worry about whether our No. 2 overall picked QB is any good is a 'best case scenario.'

 

*Maybe* if he is a problem we can still salvage a real championship window out of this year or next year, but it's gonna be pretty hard.

[WrigleyField 22]

Trubisky is going to be awesome. Just not sure when.........

When he signs his contract with the AAF.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I don't think anything involving having to worry about whether our No. 2 overall picked QB is any good is a 'best case scenario.'

 

*Maybe* if he is a problem we can still salvage a real championship window out of this year or next year, but it's gonna be pretty hard.

 

my "best case scenario" includes an "elite" defense and a developing Mitch Trubisky as much as it would a developing defense and an "elite" Mitch Trubisky. And honestly, thinking Trubisky would be on fire in a new offensive scheme from day 1 is fantasy to me. That would scream flash in the pan. I mean, we were aiming for 10 wins this season, not 14.

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't think anything involving having to worry about whether our No. 2 overall picked QB is any good is a 'best case scenario.'

 

*Maybe* if he is a problem we can still salvage a real championship window out of this year or next year, but it's gonna be pretty hard.

 

my "best case scenario" includes an "elite" defense and a developing Mitch Trubisky as much as it would a developing defense and an "elite" Mitch Trubisky. And honestly, thinking Trubisky would be on fire in a new offensive scheme from day 1 is fantasy to me. That would scream flash in the pan. I mean, we were aiming for 10 wins this season, not 14.

It's not that he isn't on fire. He isn't even heating up. Our beat hope is that Loggains was so worthless that last years reps actually led to zero development, but can be overcome with enough time.

[minnesotacubsfan]

the sky is falling scenario

[raw]

 

Just imagine how bad this team would be without Mack.

 

The issue is this isn't a "they'll grow into it" situation. They don't have any future first round picks. They have to win with what they have. That was a good show by the defense, although they still get gashed a bit too much for an elite defense, and the weapons are obviously all there on offense. Taylor Gabriel would have been the #1 receiver on past Bears teams. It was all set up on a platter for Mitch to shine, and he didn't. I'm not upset with the 24-17 win. They covered. But I'm disappointed in Mitch's misses.

 

It is though. It's been 2 games. Granted, these are going to be the guys that are going to have to get it done in the next 3 years, but they don't have to get it done today. Even still, they have led all but 2 minutes of time so far this year.

 

Elite defenses don't last three years. You're *lucky* if an elite defense lasts one.

 

Agreed. But my point was. This is game 2 of a 3-year window for this exact core. It is correct that they won't be able to add anything to it, but it all depends on the QB. If Mitch is bad, doesn't matter what talent they could've added. If he's good, then it doesn't matter because this group will have 3 years to fine tune things, just in time for the defense to probably not be elite.

[WrigleyField 22]

How do you figure a 3 year core for this group? 9 main contributors who have to be re-upped or replaced the next two offseasons, and not a ton of money or draft capital to do it. I think this is much more a 2 year window, and even that is going to require crafting work at the edges of the roster next year. This is only a 3 year window if Trubisky becomes a total stud.

 

FA by year;

2019

*Bobby Massie RT CHI UFA -

Kevin White WR CHI UFA -

Aaron Lynch DE CHI UFA -

*Bryce Callahan CB CHI UFA -

Josh Bellamy WR CHI UFA -

Pat O'Donnell P CHI UFA -

Marcus Cooper CB CHI UFA -

*Eric Kush G CHI UFA -

Benny Cunningham RB CHI UFA -

Zach Miller TE CHI UFA -

Nick Williams DE CHI UFA -

Patrick Scales LS CHI RFA -

*Adrian Amos FS CHI UFA -

Michael Burton FB CHI UFA -

DeAndre Houston-Carson S CHI RFA -

*Roy Robertson-Harris DE CHI RFA -

Ben Braunecker TE CHI RFA -

Rashaad Coward G CHI ERFA -

Isaiah Irving OLB CHI ERFA -

2020

*Danny Trevathan ILB CHI UFA -

Dion Sims TE CHI UFA -

Chase Daniel QB CHI UFA -

Sam Acho OLB CHI UFA -

Sherrick McManis CB CHI UFA -

Bradley Sowell LT CHI UFA -

*Cody Whitehair C CHI UFA -

*Jonathan Bullard DE CHI UFA -

Nick Kwiatkoski ILB CHI UFA -

Deon Bush S CHI UFA -

*Jordan Howard RB CHI UFA -

[Wilson A2000]

How do you figure a 3 year core for this group? 9 main contributors who have to be re-upped or replaced the next two offseasons, and not a ton of money or draft capital to do it. I think this is much more a 2 year window, and even that is going to require crafting work at the edges of the roster next year. This is only a 3 year window if Trubisky becomes a total stud.

 

FA by year;

2019

*Bobby Massie RT CHI UFA -

Kevin White WR CHI UFA -

Aaron Lynch DE CHI UFA -

*Bryce Callahan CB CHI UFA -

Josh Bellamy WR CHI UFA -

Pat O'Donnell P CHI UFA -

Marcus Cooper CB CHI UFA -

*Eric Kush G CHI UFA -

Benny Cunningham RB CHI UFA -

Zach Miller TE CHI UFA -

Nick Williams DE CHI UFA -

Patrick Scales LS CHI RFA -

*Adrian Amos FS CHI UFA -

Michael Burton FB CHI UFA -

DeAndre Houston-Carson S CHI RFA -

*Roy Robertson-Harris DE CHI RFA -

Ben Braunecker TE CHI RFA -

Rashaad Coward G CHI ERFA -

Isaiah Irving OLB CHI ERFA -

2020

*Danny Trevathan ILB CHI UFA -

Dion Sims TE CHI UFA -

Chase Daniel QB CHI UFA -

Sam Acho OLB CHI UFA -

Sherrick McManis CB CHI UFA -

Bradley Sowell LT CHI UFA -

*Cody Whitehair C CHI UFA -

*Jonathan Bullard DE CHI UFA -

Nick Kwiatkoski ILB CHI UFA -

Deon Bush S CHI UFA -

*Jordan Howard RB CHI UFA -

 

Lynch, Amos, Robertson-Harris, Trevathan, Whitehair, and Howard are the only nevessary re-signings on that list

[sneakypower]

i will absolutely take the over on that defense being elite for just 2 years

[sneakypower]

i will absolutely take the over on that defense being elite for just 2 years

Seattle had 5+ years as an elite unit with Sherman/Thomas/Chancellor/Wagner and that's nearly the quality you're lining up with Mack/Smith/Amos/Floyd/Hicks/Goldman/Fuller

 

also, PFF fwiw:

[jersey cubs fan]

i will absolutely take the over on that defense being elite for just 2 years

Seattle had 5+ years as an elite unit with Sherman/Thomas/Chancellor/Wagner and that's nearly the quality you're lining up with Mack/Smith/Amos/Floyd/Hicks/Goldman/Fuller

 

also, PFF fwiw:

But didn't Seattle build their defense (nearly) entirely through the draft over a ~2 year period? They didn't have big money free agents like Mack and Hicks. The Bears have Smith and Floyd on relatively cheap rookie deals but the rest are all big money and 26+. Adrian Amos is likely gone this offseason, given the extensions and contracts they've already had to spend on everybody else.

 

Two things work against prolonged greatness on defense.

1) While an offense can theoretically rely on a QB to drive the entire engine and mask the weak spots, defenses with weak spots will get exploited. An elite defense takes a whole bunch of elite money making players.

2) Elite defense relies heavily on youth. You don't veteran savviness your way to elite D. And football youth is especially fleeting.

 

When we look back at this era you're going to start with last season as the first good one, this year potentially the first elite one, and then maybe 2 more years near the top. But they will have a very tough time restocking the defense to keep it elite in 2021. They are going to have a lot of pressure making sure they get something out of the 3/4/5 picks in 2019, then they have to hit on the the 2/4 in 2020.

 

It's going to be very tough to maintain.

[WrigleyField 22]

How do you figure a 3 year core for this group? 9 main contributors who have to be re-upped or replaced the next two offseasons, and not a ton of money or draft capital to do it. I think this is much more a 2 year window, and even that is going to require crafting work at the edges of the roster next year. This is only a 3 year window if Trubisky becomes a total stud.

 

FA by year;

2019

*Bobby Massie RT CHI UFA -

Kevin White WR CHI UFA -

Aaron Lynch DE CHI UFA -

*Bryce Callahan CB CHI UFA -

Josh Bellamy WR CHI UFA -

Pat O'Donnell P CHI UFA -

Marcus Cooper CB CHI UFA -

*Eric Kush G CHI UFA -

Benny Cunningham RB CHI UFA -

Zach Miller TE CHI UFA -

Nick Williams DE CHI UFA -

Patrick Scales LS CHI RFA -

*Adrian Amos FS CHI UFA -

Michael Burton FB CHI UFA -

DeAndre Houston-Carson S CHI RFA -

*Roy Robertson-Harris DE CHI RFA -

Ben Braunecker TE CHI RFA -

Rashaad Coward G CHI ERFA -

Isaiah Irving OLB CHI ERFA -

2020

*Danny Trevathan ILB CHI UFA -

Dion Sims TE CHI UFA -

Chase Daniel QB CHI UFA -

Sam Acho OLB CHI UFA -

Sherrick McManis CB CHI UFA -

Bradley Sowell LT CHI UFA -

*Cody Whitehair C CHI UFA -

*Jonathan Bullard DE CHI UFA -

Nick Kwiatkoski ILB CHI UFA -

Deon Bush S CHI UFA -

*Jordan Howard RB CHI UFA -

 

Lynch, Amos, Robertson-Harris, Trevathan, Whitehair, and Howard are the only nevessary re-signings on that list

None of the 9-10 are 100% necessary, but there is production that has to be replaced somewhere. There are some internal/cheap possibilities. But even of the core list you named, there is a really good chance even all of those can't be retained by 2021. Howard is going to be the big one. It will probably be the right move to let him walk after his rookie deal, but its gonna be a tough move and they're gonna have to deal with that production drop.

[minnesotacubsfan]

How do you figure a 3 year core for this group? 9 main contributors who have to be re-upped or replaced the next two offseasons, and not a ton of money or draft capital to do it. I think this is much more a 2 year window, and even that is going to require crafting work at the edges of the roster next year. This is only a 3 year window if Trubisky becomes a total stud.

 

FA by year;

2019

*Bobby Massie RT CHI UFA -

Kevin White WR CHI UFA -

Aaron Lynch DE CHI UFA -

*Bryce Callahan CB CHI UFA -

Josh Bellamy WR CHI UFA -

Pat O'Donnell P CHI UFA -

Marcus Cooper CB CHI UFA -

*Eric Kush G CHI UFA -

Benny Cunningham RB CHI UFA -

Zach Miller TE CHI UFA -

Nick Williams DE CHI UFA -

Patrick Scales LS CHI RFA -

*Adrian Amos FS CHI UFA -

Michael Burton FB CHI UFA -

DeAndre Houston-Carson S CHI RFA -

*Roy Robertson-Harris DE CHI RFA -

Ben Braunecker TE CHI RFA -

Rashaad Coward G CHI ERFA -

Isaiah Irving OLB CHI ERFA -

2020

*Danny Trevathan ILB CHI UFA -

Dion Sims TE CHI UFA -

Chase Daniel QB CHI UFA -

Sam Acho OLB CHI UFA -

Sherrick McManis CB CHI UFA -

Bradley Sowell LT CHI UFA -

*Cody Whitehair C CHI UFA -

*Jonathan Bullard DE CHI UFA -

Nick Kwiatkoski ILB CHI UFA -

Deon Bush S CHI UFA -

*Jordan Howard RB CHI UFA -

 

Lynch, Amos, Robertson-Harris, Trevathan, Whitehair, and Howard are the only nevessary re-signings on that list

None of the 9-10 are 100% necessary, but there is production that has to be replaced somewhere. There are some internal/cheap possibilities. But even of the core list you named, there is a really good chance even all of those can't be retained by 2021. Howard is going to be the big one. It will probably be the right move to let him walk after his rookie deal, but its gonna be a tough move and they're gonna have to deal with that production drop.

 

what production drop? Howard isnt being used to his best capabilities in this offense

[WrigleyField 22]

 

Lynch, Amos, Robertson-Harris, Trevathan, Whitehair, and Howard are the only nevessary re-signings on that list

None of the 9-10 are 100% necessary, but there is production that has to be replaced somewhere. There are some internal/cheap possibilities. But even of the core list you named, there is a really good chance even all of those can't be retained by 2021. Howard is going to be the big one. It will probably be the right move to let him walk after his rookie deal, but its gonna be a tough move and they're gonna have to deal with that production drop.

 

what production drop? Howard isnt being used to his best capabilities in this offense

Well everyone's production sucks in this offense so far, which isf that remains the case, it is a zero year window.

[raw]

How do you figure a 3 year core for this group? 9 main contributors who have to be re-upped or replaced the next two offseasons, and not a ton of money or draft capital to do it. I think this is much more a 2 year window, and even that is going to require crafting work at the edges of the roster next year. This is only a 3 year window if Trubisky becomes a total stud.

 

FA by year;

2019

*Bobby Massie RT CHI UFA - Re-signable for cheap. Replaceable for cheaper. Could use a mid-round pick.

Kevin White WR CHI UFA - 2 plays last week, Wims already in house to replace

Aaron Lynch DE CHI UFA - distant 3rd pass rusher. Acho, Irving, Fitts can easily replace

*Bryce Callahan CB CHI UFA - he's really good. will be tough to replace. Could get expensive.

Josh Bellamy WR CHI UFA - who cares?

Pat O'Donnell P CHI UFA - Punter, re-sign cheap. Sign UDFA cheaper

Marcus Cooper CB CHI UFA - who cares?

*Eric Kush G CHI UFA - Daniels just waiting his time.

Benny Cunningham RB CHI UFA - who cares?

Zach Miller TE CHI UFA - deceased

Nick Williams DE CHI UFA - who cares?

Patrick Scales LS CHI RFA - again, who cares?

*Adrian Amos FS CHI UFA - will be tough to replace, maybe Bush for a year, maybe cheap FA, maybe another midround pick like and Jackson were

Michael Burton FB CHI UFA - who cares?

DeAndre Houston-Carson S CHI RFA - cheap re-sign, if not, who cares?

*Roy Robertson-Harris DE CHI RFA - cheap re-sign if they get it done this offseason. Not UFA until 2020

Ben Braunecker TE CHI RFA - who cares? 5th TE

Rashaad Coward G CHI ERFA - cheap, not a UFA until 2021

Isaiah Irving OLB CHI ERFA - cheap, not a UFA until 2021

2020

*Danny Trevathan ILB CHI UFA - great on Monday. Replacement may be on the roster with Iyejbuniwe

Dion Sims TE CHI UFA - LOL

Chase Daniel QB CHI UFA - backup QB, who cares?

Sam Acho OLB CHI UFA - Backup, either returns cheap or rides off quietly into the sunset, who cares?

Sherrick McManis CB CHI UFA - special teamer, replaceable

Bradley Sowell LT CHI UFA - who cares?

*Cody Whitehair C CHI UFA - probably look to re-sign him long-term next September

*Jonathan Bullard DE CHI UFA - replacement on roster already in Nichols

Nick Kwiatkoski ILB CHI UFA - backup, replacement could be on roster with Iyejbuniwe, could be cheap to bring back for depth

Deon Bush S CHI UFA - backup, could be cheap re-sign if he starts and is decent in 2019

*Jordan Howard RB CHI UFA - RBs are replaceable. Love Howard, but not paying him real money to stay. Mid round draft pick in 2 years would be sufficient

 

 

Far as I'm concerned, re-sign Whitehair and then see what happens with Amos/Callahan and Howard. Obviously all the bottom of the roster guys are all replaceable by similar late round picks, UDFAs, or sub $1M free agents.

 

Figure you can spend the little cap space in 2019 on replacing/resigning 1 of Massie, Callahan, or Amos. Probably use the 2nd round pick on 1 of the other positions, and a 3rd day pick on the other. Coward, Toliver and Bush should at least be able to compete to fill the voids, respectively.

 

Not too worried about 2020. The cap increases should give them plenty of space to re-sign whoever they reasonably want. And they have the 2 2's,one of which should be pretty high as I don't imagine the Raiders will be any good next year either. That's conceivably 2 starters they should be able to add.

 

But even if they lose every FA listed above (they won't), going into year 3, they'd still have:

 

QB- starter

RB- very involved #2

WR- top 3 + Wims

TE- top 2 (healthy Shaheen)

OL- LT, Kyle Long's corpse, Daniels, Coward

 

DL- Hicks, Goldman, Nichols

OLB- Mack, Floyd (5th year option), Irving, Fitts

ILB- Smith, Iyejibuniwe

CB- both starters, Toliver

S- starting FS

 

And while they don't have any premium picks, they will have 4 top 90 picks in the next 2 years (potential starters/key contributors) to add starters at RB, 1/2 OL spot, and a SS. Everything else needed is a projected backup if everything else works out. The only fear I have is when disaster inevitably strikes with injury or current draft picks busting.

[WrigleyField 22]

You added an extra second round pick in there. Next years second round pick is Miller.

[WrigleyField 22]

Plus, yea, the last part about injuries/busts. The 3 year window is with a lot of pieces falling right and on the very optimistic end.