David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

[Aaron_Kennelly]

From May 2016:

 

I think that Soler has been a little unlucky. His average exit velocity is 92.3mph, which is about the same as Rizzo's exit velocity. And his exit velocity has been stable - standard deviation is only 12.7mph. As a comparison, Harper's exit velocity is 91.7mph and standard deviation is 14.2mph.

 

He has not subsequently done a whole lot to warrant comparison to Rizzo or Harper.

 

This kind of analysis is the modern version of "But he hits .312 in day games on Tuesdays." There are so many peripherals now that if you keep digging, you can find one that you like about the guy. Maybe it's exit velocity, maybe it's LD%, maybe he's due some BABIP luck, maybe you like the K/BB ratio, maybe he's got an above-average Z-swing% (RIP alcantara 2beautiful4thisworld), maybe his contact rate is too big leagues to ignore. There's always something.

 

Maaaaybe David Bote is the next Ryan Theriot, and granted offensive output is so low these days that you basically just have to be not Rey Ordonez to be useful in the middle infield, but there was a time that stat-savvy fans knew what to make out of the guy with OK but not great numbers in AA and AAA who comes up and hits well for 82 plate appearances.

 

I'd certainly never use raw exit velocity numbers to compare Jorge Soler or David Bote to Anthony Rizzo as overall hitters. The guy strikes out nearly 30% of the time. But Soler probably does similar damage to Rizzo when they both make contact. And exit velocity isn't just about average exit velocity. There's a lot more importance in hitting it hard when you get it in the air, how often you get it in the air, how high you can max out exit velocity at.

 

But for some context for that quote you've chosen. At the time the author wrote it, Soler was hitting .175/.261/.275 with a .211 BABIP. The rest of that year he hit .272/.372/.524.

 

And, I agree there are lot of things you can pick and choose from to make a hitter look good. Fortunately for Bote, he's been good at just about everything so far.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Bote isn't just hitting every ball hard. He's hitting everything close to his desired launch angle.

 

That's a pretty textbook example of counting the same thing twice.

 

Not really -- e.g, Giancarlo Stanton.

 

This is one the reasons Mike Trout is so good despite lower exit velocities.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Yeah I'm not super high on the predictive power of launch angle and exit velocity, despite the fact that you'd think they'd be incredible for that. Pre-statcast we'd handwave all sorts of small sample size stuff away as luck that's unlikely to repeat itself....and most of the time we'd be right. Now, you can be more semantically precise in noting whether or not it's luck. but it doesn't really change whether or not it's likely to persist.

 

Launch angle and exit velocity have pretty strong year-to-year correlations. They are predictive. Obviously a sample as small as Bote's isn't going to be very predictive at all. But I think this stuff is important and can help us better analyze small samples.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I tried to balance things out to prevent the Duke Curse from my praise in this thread and it went predictably.

 

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's so weird to me that nobody seems to keep AAA scouting reports, or maybe the quality of pitching is so different it doesn't matter. Because it seems like we constantly have guys who come up and mash a little because the league says "lol here's your fastballs" before adjusting to whatever they actually do.

[David]

Yes he is

[WrigleyField 22]

He deserves a second thread.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Best Of All Time

[Old Style]

The legend grows.

[Regular Show]

He deserves a second thread.

 

[Post Count Padder]

Can we name the MVP award after him?

[champaignchris]

I tried to balance things out to prevent the Duke Curse from my praise in this thread and it went predictably.

 

 

 

The Grand Slam today was right at the bottom of the zone.

[imb]

I tried to balance things out to prevent the Duke Curse from my praise in this thread and it went predictably.

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

 

The Grand Slam today was right at the bottom of the zone.

 

first thing i thought too

[Aaron_Kennelly]

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

The Grand Slam today was right at the bottom of the zone.

 

first thing i thought too

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/idjut.gif

[PackLandVA]

Weiters reaction is awesome. He doesn't even hesitate going to the dugout. :D

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Weiters reaction is awesome. He doesn't even hesitate going to the dugout. :D

 

Im sure it was very loud that close

[Old Style]

Just said on the radio postgame that this was the first walk off grand slam to win 4-3 since 1936 when the Reds did it.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/6/2/4/290119624/081218_cubs_bote_rounding_homeplate.gif

[Aaron_Kennelly]

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/3/0/2/290121302/081218_bote_bat_flip.gif

[CyHawk_Cub]

The batflip. I lurv him.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

The Grand Slam today was right at the bottom of the zone.

 

first thing i thought too

 

 

http://i4.ytimg.com/vi/kdOPBP9vuZA/mqdefault.jpg

[CyHawk_Cub]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Bote walking past Chili in the dugout:

 

http://okp-cdn.okayplayer.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Chappelle-13.gif

[Brian]

Laura Ricketts loves her some Bote.

 

She tweeted for his game tier

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

And hasn't tweeted until tonight with a bunch of retweets and

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]