Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-15-18

[CubsWin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa won 2-0 Box Score

 

Tennessee won 7-6 (Walk Off) Box Score

 

Myrtle Beach won 9-2 Box Score

 

South Bend lost 11-7 Box Score

 

Eugene lost 7-2 Box Score

 

AZL Cubs 1 lost 2-0 Box Score

 

 

AZL Cubs 2, DSL Cubs 1 and DSL Cubs 2 had the day off

 

Iowa: RHP Trevor Clifton

Tennessee: RHP Thomas Hatch

Myrtle Beach: RHP Tyson Miller

South Bend: RHP Tyler Thomas

Eugene: RHP Ryan Williams

Edited July 17, 2018 by CubsWin

[Donzo]

Interesting day as far as starting pitches go.

[davell]

 

He's going to bypass Ademan pretty quickly.

[Bertz]

I don't get too excited about what a guy coming from the PAC 10 does in Low A, but if Hoerner has legit power to go along with all the other positives from his draft scouting report I think he's our best prospect. It wouldn't shock me, Happ's power was way undersold before the draft too.

[Donzo]

To be fair, Hoerner is older than Ademan... I think almost a year and a half older.

 

For perspective, if Ademan played in SB next year, I'd bet he'd put up some fantastic numbers.

 

But, yeah, Hoerner is ripping through the lower levels of the system. A year from now, I'm sure he'll be in Tennessee. And, I wouldn't be surprised if he was in Iowa by the end of 2019.

[ScrubMD]

I don't see anything on the SB twitter account, but any word on Thomas? Only went 2 innings.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

For perspective, if Ademan played in SB next year, I'd bet he'd put up some fantastic numbers.

 

[Donzo]

Well, at 18, he was .244 .269 .378 .647 in SB... What do you think he'd do as 20 year old?

 

This year, his .OBP has already jumped in High A. Next year in low A, I'd guess his .OBP would be over .400.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I haven’t seen anything from Ademan that indicates that he’s a shoo-in to be a strong hitter at any level of full season ball yet. certainly capable of doing so, but taking a few walks while the bat gets knocked out of your hands in low/high A doesn’t fill me with confidence.

[Donzo]

I haven’t seen anything from Ademan that indicates that he’s a shoo-in to be a strong hitter at any level of full season ball yet. certainly capable of doing so, but taking a few walks while the bat gets knocked out of your hands in low/high A doesn’t fill me with confidence.

 

 

I don't see how his play as an 18 yr old at Eugene doesn't project to higher levels. He's not physically developed yet and the Cubs are OK with him taking his lumps in high A. I think this says a lot about his mental toughness.

 

If you don't like young developing players that are over matched against older developing players, then you don't like Hoerner either. I think he had a sub .600 .OPS as a freshman, and that was with an aluminum bat.

[davell]

I haven’t seen anything from Ademan that indicates that he’s a shoo-in to be a strong hitter at any level of full season ball yet. certainly capable of doing so, but taking a few walks while the bat gets knocked out of your hands in low/high A doesn’t fill me with confidence.

 

 

I don't see how his play as an 18 yr old at Eugene doesn't project to higher levels. He's not physically developed yet and the Cubs are OK with him taking his lumps in high A. I think this says a lot about his mental toughness.

 

If you don't like young developing players that are over matched against older developing players, then you don't like Hoerner either. I think he had a sub .600 .OPS as a freshman, and that was with an aluminum bat.

 

Hence, why he took the college route? Using his freshman Stanford season is worthless. All we know is that at this current juncture, Ademan's season is a disappointment from what we were hoping. No reason to bother spinning anything else.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I haven’t seen anything from Ademan that indicates that he’s a shoo-in to be a strong hitter at any level of full season ball yet. certainly capable of doing so, but taking a few walks while the bat gets knocked out of your hands in low/high A doesn’t fill me with confidence.

 

 

I don't see how his play as an 18 yr old at Eugene doesn't project to higher levels. He's not physically developed yet and the Cubs are OK with him taking his lumps in high A. I think this says a lot about his mental toughness.

 

If you don't like young developing players that are over matched against older developing players, then you don't like Hoerner either. I think he had a sub .600 .OPS as a freshman, and that was with an aluminum bat.

 

The pro survival rate if our only data point is a .600 OPS as a college freshman is extremely low. Thankfully we have more information since then. Similarly, the survival rate of guys who put up a .620 OPS in their first 400+ PA in full-season ball is not high. Ademan does have that success in his 40 game Eugene stint, and scouts seem to think he's a decent prospect so I don't want to come across as if I think he's hopeless. But you don't translate youth by saying a .600 OPS at age X is equivalent to an .800 OPS at age X+2. Ademan's performance in full-season ball has been very discouraging, he isn't hitting even for mediocre average or power, and his K rate is pushing 25%. His age and the lower threshold of his position gives him opportunity to rebound, but there's nothing about that we can look at and think it portends well if he only were a few months older at this level.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

DSL All-Star Game was today: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2018_07_15_dsarok_dsnrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

 

Pedro Martínez, Ervis Marchan and Luis Rodriguez are Cubs who made the team.

[Donzo]

Hence, why he took the college route? Using his freshman Stanford season is worthless. All we know is that at this current juncture, Ademan's season is a disappointment from what we were hoping. No reason to bother spinning anything else.

 

It was actually the opposite of worthless. I was comparing two underaged aged teenagers going against older competition. To this point, Hoerner and Adman had similar results in that situation.

 

Who said Ademan’s season wasn’t a disappointment? I think it’s safe to say everyone following Ademan hoped he did better the first 2/3 of his season at high A. Spinning that narrative wasn’t helpful to your contention. Also, for what we know, to ignore Ademan’s age different for high-A is imprudent.

[Donzo]

His age and the lower threshold of his position gives him opportunity to rebound, but there's nothing about that we can look at and think it portends well if he only were a few months older at this level.

 

Well, you’re just acknowledging then ignoring Ademan’s age differential with respect to his results. So, this is gonna be a useless conversation… Just one FWI, his age differential is closer to a few years than a “few months”.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

His age and the lower threshold of his position gives him opportunity to rebound, but there's nothing about that we can look at and think it portends well if he only were a few months older at t

his level.

 

Well, you’re just acknowledging then ignoring Ademan’s age differential with respect to his results. So, this is gonna be a useless conversation… Just one FWI, his age differential is closer to a few years than a “few months”.

 

The point is not to ignore age entirely, the point is that universally bad results shouldn't be graded on an age curve. If Ademan were hitting .250/.325/.375 at Myrtle Beach we wouldn't be having this conversation since I would've agreed with your takeaway on him repeating a low level at age 20. Instead he's got an OPS 100 points lower than that modest example line. Players who are mediocre at aggressive age/level combos you can squint and see progression with age, players who are horrible at age/level you have to wonder if they have the ability at all.

[craig]

This is a thing with promoting young players really aggressively. If they do great while being really young, it's "Wow", and you know something is terrific. But if they stink, as Ademan has done, it's hard to evaluate. Does he stink because he doesn't have it and never will? Or can we excuse every failure because he's young? It's kind of nice for the player, in a way, in that it provides a built-in excuse for being very bad.

 

As a fan, I'm not a fan of jumping leagues like they did with ademan, who wasn't very good at South Bend last year either (.269 there was a portent of his crumminess at Myrtle.) A guy is never too bored to improve and develop at whatever level he's assigned, if he's got any brains, and personally I'd rather see a guy show some success at one level before jumping him up to the next.

 

As a fan, I'd like a guy to be not SO young for his league that no matter how badly he hits, he's just got the built-in excuse that "it's OK, he's young for his league." Slugging .306? It's OK, he's young, no problem.

 

But, the Cubs are in Win Now mode, and *IF* Ademan had hypothetically been able to hit at Myrtle this year, then he'd have been a much stronger trade chip, so I can see how they might have wanted to roll the dice and hope he looked good enough to net them a useful pitcher this season.

 

Not sure it matters much anyway. *IF* a guy has the talent to end up being a hitter, and he's got the psyche to optimize his game and to not get too messed up by extended failure, then I don't really think it makes much difference which level he's at. If he's eventually going to get good, he's going to figure it out regardless of where he's at, eventually, and he's going to experience whatever physical maturation sooner or later whether he's at Myrtle or South Bend or whatever. And if he's never actually going to have the rare amazingness to hit big-league pitching anyway, I doubt it's going to matter much whether he spent this year slugging .306 at Myrtle or had spent this year slugging .350 at South Bend. He is what he is, and he will become what he will become, promotion rate notwithstanding.

 

Certainly he's got plenty of time to develop himself and become good, if that's in his potential. Willson was slugging .347 in the Northwest League when he was 19. Hoerner as an 18-year-old freshman didn't hit. What happens physically from age 19 to age 23 can be widely variant, so who knows what he'll become over the next couple of years.

[Donzo]

 

The point is not to ignore age entirely, the point is that universally bad results shouldn't be graded on an age curve.

 

 

"Universal"?--- So, his 2017 Eugene numbers don't count?

 

For me the only thing 2018 says about ademan is that as an underdeveloped 19 yr old he wasn't ready for high A baseball where the average player is 3.4 years older and much more developed.

[Donzo]

This is a thing with promoting young players really aggressively. If they do great while being really young, it's "Wow", and you know something is terrific. But if they stink, as Ademan has done, it's hard to evaluate. Does he stink because he doesn't have it and never will? Or can we excuse every failure because he's young? It's kind of nice for the player, in a way, in that it provides a built-in excuse for being very bad.

 

 

Not really... It's a case by case basis, each player should be judged in a vacuum. Ademan has shown he' wasn't physically ready for high A, that's clear. That's all there really is judge here, except he seems to handling the issue. That bodes well for him.

 

If he was physically mature and had the issues he's having, then there would be a problem.

[davell]

The buzz was he had put on some good weight over the offseason.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Let's shift the discussion to Nico. This dudes a horsefeathering badass. I'm gonna go to the extreme but I can see some Mookie Betts in his game. Obviously has a great eye at the plate and does not whiff much.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

The point is not to ignore age entirely, the point is that universally bad results shouldn't be graded on an age curve.

 

 

"Universal"?--- So, his 2017 Eugene numbers don't count?

 

For me the only thing 2018 says about ademan is that as an underdeveloped 19 yr old he wasn't ready for high A baseball where the average player is 3.4 years older and much more developed.

 

Universal in that his 2018 performance is unequivocally bad, not that he's been terrible throughout his entire professional career.

 

It is absolutely possible Ademan was just rushed too high too soon. It is also possible that he is not capable of hitting full-season pitching. 2018(and really, 2017 at South Bend) has done nothing to cast doubt on the latter hypothesis, and as such I'm not comfortable saying he'd be any good with more age. He certainly could! But my picking this nit comes from thinking Ademan is entirely too high on most lists right now, because he doesn't have world-class tools and the performance has been shockingly bad even given lower expectations of a 19 year old in A+.

[Hrubes20]

Let's shift the discussion to Nico. This dudes a horsefeathering badass. I'm gonna go to the extreme but I can see some Mookie Betts in his game. Obviously has a great eye at the plate and does not whiff much.

 

Cubs are gonna have to tinker with the swing if they want more power, IMO. He has 2 career HRs already, but the first one went about 320 feet and would have been caught on the track in a big league park, and everything else has been of the groundball or linedrive variety. That plays well with his plus speed, but it's not going to result in 20 bombs. The walks are really nice to see in the early going, though. He only walked 19 times this year at Stanford in 254 PAs, 15 in 275 in 2017, and 13 in 236 in 2016. He already has 9 in 60 professional PAs. It's been about as good as a pro debut as you could have asked for from Hoerner so far.

[Rob]

Let's shift the discussion to Nico. This dudes a horsefeathering badass. I'm gonna go to the extreme but I can see some Mookie Betts in his game. Obviously has a great eye at the plate and does not whiff much.

 

Cubs are gonna have to tinker with the swing if they want more power, IMO. He has 2 career HRs already, but the first one went about 320 feet and would have been caught on the track in a big league park, and everything else has been of the groundball or linedrive variety. That plays well with his plus speed, but it's not going to result in 20 bombs. The walks are really nice to see in the early going, though. He only walked 19 times this year at Stanford in 254 PAs, 15 in 275 in 2017, and 13 in 236 in 2016. He already has 9 in 60 professional PAs. It's been about as good as a pro debut as you could have asked for from Hoerner so far.

 

Bold opinion: I have a lot of faith in the Cubs front office when it comes to drafting college hitters in the first round.