2018 Mid Season Top 20

[Donzo]

I got the idea from the game thread from 7/3... I graduated Bote and Caratini, that should be considered when thinking about the overall strength of the system.

 

1. Azaloy- I think clearly the #1 prospect. Has all the tools to be top of rotation starter and as long as he’s healthy, he could be starting early next

year in the majors if needed.

2. Ademan- A little overmatched the first half in High A, but that’s not a surprise. He needs to do better the 2nd half and is off to a good start.

3. Amaya- The Cubs minor league breakout player the first half of the season. His defense was always there, now his offense is as good as his D.

4. Hoerner- I didn’t love the pick, but the Cubs know how to pick college bats in the 1st round. It’s very early, but he showing everything that he

was advertised to be.

5. Lange- He’s been mostly good, looks like a pro. Besides a great curve, pretty average everywhere else. Don’t know if his ceiling is very high as a

starter.

 

6. Pereda- Good all around catching prospect, having a solid year… Cubs have become very good at developing catchers.

7. Little- Having a strange year with alternating between god and bad starts. The Cubs are coaching him hard, so inconstancy is OK. His ceiling is

high, could be a good starter or excellent reliever.

8. De La Cruz- Well, I’m not going penalize him too much for the 80-game suspension. He’s big, has plus stuff and had some real good games at AA.

9. Marquez- Big young lefty with excellent stuff. He could be in the top 5 at the end of the year, or off the list.

10. Underwood- Sure looks the part coming off the bus and already had a decent start in the majors. I think fans have been hypercritical of him.

He’s still young enough and has made progress with his issues (K’s and BB’s).

 

11. Maples- The Cubs Wild Thing. In two years he could be closing in the majors or pitching in the independent leagues. Can say this for him, when

your 100mph 4-seamer is your 2nd best pitch, you’re going to get a lot of chances to prove yourself.

12. Hudson- Another pitcher I think the fans have been hypercritical of. He was a project when drafted and that’s how it’s played out. He’s still

young (he’s younger today than Lange was when the Cubs drafted him last year) and is holding his own in High A. If he still looks like a baby

deer/giraffe at the end of next year rather than a power pitcher, then I’ll put him on the back burner.

13. Zagunis- The guy has a 1.1000 OPS at AAA and will get on base in the majors.

14. Rucker- Has solid stuff and good control. Should have some type of major league career.

15. Mekes- Very interesting prospect. Very dominating in the minors. Will it play out in the majors? I imagine he’ll be pitching for the Cubs in

September and I’m looking forward to watching him. The reports of him hitting 95mph in Iowa are encouraging.

 

16. Hatch- Has been solid, but K’s are down, BB’s are up and still doesn’t have an out pitch.

17. Short- He’s OK, I don’t think he’s as good as Bote.

18. Clifton- Excellent in AA after an awful year there in 2017. Solid in AAA.

19. Thompson- He’s Lange Jr. and has probably pitched better than Lange since the 2017 draft, he’s already in AA. I think he could be a very good

reliever.

20. Steele- I liked him a lot before TJS. Glad to see he’s pitching already this year.

 

Going to go with five four more, all young guys. The 2nd round pick from June and the top four three international signings the past two years.

21. Brennen Davis- Big young OF with all the tools. Looking the part early in Arizona, but hasn't played lately.

22. Richard Gallardo- The #1 international pitcher from 2018, #6 overall. He only signed for a $1M bonus, so he wasn’t expensive. Big young lefty

that projects as a power pitcher; gotta like that.

23. Jose Lopez- Ranked as the #17 international al prospects, but signed for $1.5M, the Cubs biggest bonus the past two years. A fast-little CF, only 16.

24.Florencio Serrano- One of two players to sign for $1.2M in 2017, the Cubs biggest bonus. Already hitting 95mph on his fast ball. OOPS!- 8-)

25. Luis Verdugo- The other player to sign for $1.2M in 2017. A SS prospect whose played against older plyers and has done well.

Edited July 10, 2018 by Donzo

[Tim]

Good thread and interesting list. I've got a few major differences in my thinking, but I haven't really put together a list yet.

 

 

One depressing note from the Athletic article on ODLC's suspension:

 

Prior to that, he was once again sitting in the mid-90s. But upon his return in the Arizona Fall League, De La Cruz topped out at 92 in his lone outing. During the offseason, he made numerous Cubs top 10 prospect lists, ranking as high as third according to MLB.com and as low as eighth in Baseball Prospectus’ rankings.

 

When watching him in the backfields this past spring, I noticed that once again, he was struggling to get any higher than 92 on his heater and was mostly sitting below that mark. There was some optimism that he could build his arm strength back up, but it was clear the shine had worn off this once-ascending prospect.

 

It sure sounds like the explosiveness in his stuff hasn't been there this year. I will probably knock him down pretty far.

[Donzo]

Thanks, and yeah, I imagine there will be a lot of variety with a top prospect list. I think the top four, in some order, will be very similar. After that, it's pretty subjective.

 

If De La Cruz is topping out at 92, then that torpedoes his prospect status.

[Tim]

I'll probably have your top 5 as my top 5, but in a different order.

 

Amaya is solidly my #1 at this point.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Florencio Serrano's contract was voided

[Tim]

Florencio Serrano's contract was voided

"Well scratch him off, then!"

[CyHawk_Cub]

Florencio Serrano's contract was voided

"Well scratch him off, then!"

 

At least he's not dead.

[PackLandVA]

What about Trent Giambrone? He’s getting love in the Minor League Musings forum. Bote 2.0

[Tim]

What about Trent Giambrone? He’s getting love in the Minor League Musings forum. Bote 2.0

I'd like to see him walk a bit more. And I want to hear more about his defense. But, yeah, he's getting interesting.

 

Interesting note: After walking at a 13.1% clip in AA to start the year, Vosler has gone 56 PA without a single walk in AAA.

[We Got The Whole 9]

It would be fabulous if Zagunis had a 1.100 OPS at AAA but it appears you looked at his MLB line.

[CubsWin]

To go 20 deep in this org right now is tough because after the first 5 or so it's anybody's guess really, but I'll give it a go. (No Caratini, Bote, Maples or Zagunis.)

 

1. Adbert Alzolay

2. Miguel Amaya

3. Aramis Ademan

4. Alex Lange

5. Nico Hoerner

6. Brailyn Marquez

7. Trevor Clifton

8. Tyson Miller

9. Cory Abbott

10. Brendon Little

11. Cole Roederer

12. Brennan Davis

13. Jose Albertos

14. Justin Steele

15. Nelson Velazquez

16. Richard Gallardo

17. Jose Lopez

18. Zack Short

19. Bailey Clark

20. Jhonny Pereda

 

Honorable mention: Paul Richan, Ian Rice, James Norwood, DJ Wilson, Tyler Thomas and Rollie Lacy.

[KingCubsFan]

Amaya is far and away the #1 prospect for me. I'd probably go with Hoerner after that.

[Hrubes20]

Good thread and interesting list. I've got a few major differences in my thinking, but I haven't really put together a list yet.

 

 

One depressing note from the Athletic article on ODLC's suspension:

 

Prior to that, he was once again sitting in the mid-90s. But upon his return in the Arizona Fall League, De La Cruz topped out at 92 in his lone outing. During the offseason, he made numerous Cubs top 10 prospect lists, ranking as high as third according to MLB.com and as low as eighth in Baseball Prospectus’ rankings.

 

When watching him in the backfields this past spring, I noticed that once again, he was struggling to get any higher than 92 on his heater and was mostly sitting below that mark. There was some optimism that he could build his arm strength back up, but it was clear the shine had worn off this once-ascending prospect.

 

It sure sounds like the explosiveness in his stuff hasn't been there this year. I will probably knock him down pretty far.

 

He's not in my top 15, maybe not top 20. If I get a little more time, I will make a list as well.

[toonsterwu]

I'd take that report with a grain of salt in that the commentator notes that he's judging arm strength on the back fields in spring. Doesn't mean he's not wrong, but weren't there some reports of ODLC in the 94-95 range this year? Thought there was.

 

As for a list ... ugh ... it ain't pretty. I think my top 4 goes Amaya/Alzolay/Hoerner/Ademan in that order. I guess Lange is 5th, but I really don't love it. I'm not so sure I wouldn't pop a "high floor" arm from our bevy in the top 10. At a certain point, performance matters. Reminds me somewhat of the lists 12-14 years ago, when guys like Sergio Mitre/Jon Leicester and others were coming up.

[Regular Show]

To go 20 deep in this org right now is tough because after the first 5 or so it's anybody's guess really, but I'll give it a go. (No Caratini, Bote, Maples or Zagunis.)

 

1. Adbert Alzolay

2. Miguel Amaya

3. Aramis Ademan

4. Alex Lange

5. Nico Hoerner

6. Brailyn Marquez

7. Trevor Clifton

8. Tyson Miller

9. Cory Abbott

10. Brendon Little

11. Cole Roederer

12. Brennan Davis

13. Jose Albertos

14. Justin Steele

15. Nelson Velazquez

16. Richard Gallardo

17. Jose Lopez

18. Zack Short

19. Bailey Clark

20. Jhonny Pereda

 

Honorable mention: Paul Richan, Ian Rice, James Norwood, DJ Wilson, Tyler Thomas and Rollie Lacy.

 

I like your list, but I think you have Trevor Clifton too high. His stats are pretty good this year and he's at AAA now. He used to have a plus curveball and I wonder if it's back.

 

I'm trying to get more information on Jhonny Pereda and how his tools rate. Definitely a good sleeper prospect.

[Donzo]

Florencio Serrano's contract was voided

"Well scratch him off, then!"

 

At least he's not dead.

 

Done... TY!

 

I don't keep up with system like I use to, I just put the list together off the top of my head.

[Donzo]

It would be fabulous if Zagunis had a 1.100 OPS at AAA but it appears you looked at his MLB line.

 

So, not 1998 Sammy Sosa AAA OPS, but a 2018 Addison Russell AAA OPS- got it..... He'll still be able to get on base in the majors.

[Donzo]

What about Trent Giambrone? He’s getting love in the Minor League Musings forum. Bote 2.0

 

He's interesting- lot of HR's and a bunch of SB's this year... Just too over aged for prospect status for me, but who knows.

[CubsWin]

To go 20 deep in this org right now is tough because after the first 5 or so it's anybody's guess really, but I'll give it a go. (No Caratini, Bote, Maples or Zagunis.)

 

1. Adbert Alzolay

2. Miguel Amaya

3. Aramis Ademan

4. Alex Lange

5. Nico Hoerner

6. Brailyn Marquez

7. Trevor Clifton

8. Tyson Miller

9. Cory Abbott

10. Brendon Little

11. Cole Roederer

12. Brennan Davis

13. Jose Albertos

14. Justin Steele

15. Nelson Velazquez

16. Richard Gallardo

17. Jose Lopez

18. Zack Short

19. Bailey Clark

20. Jhonny Pereda

 

Honorable mention: Paul Richan, Ian Rice, James Norwood, DJ Wilson, Tyler Thomas and Rollie Lacy.

 

I like your list, but I think you have Trevor Clifton too high. His stats are pretty good this year and he's at AAA now. He used to have a plus curveball and I wonder if it's back.

 

I'm trying to get more information on Jhonny Pereda and how his tools rate. Definitely a good sleeper prospect.

Thanks. There's plenty of room for interpretation. I can understand anyone disagreeing with any ranking after the top 4 or 5. That's the state of the Cubs system right now. But this is exactly where they should be after an unprecedented run producing young stars/regulars like Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, Schwarber, Contreras, Almora, Happ, Torres, Jimenez, Edwards, etc.

 

I like the youth and pitching depth currently in the system. There's a solid group of high ceiling prospects all under 20 (Amaya, Ademan, Marquez, Roederer, Davis, Albertos, Velazquez, Gallardo, Lopez, C. Morel, Kelli, Soto, Diaz, Estrada, etc.) and more pitchers with a chance than the Cubs have had in a long time (Alzolay, Lange, Clifton, Miller, Abbott, Little, Albertos, Steele, Clark, Richan, Maples, Mekkes, Norwood, the Professor and Mary Ann, etc.). We should know a lot more in a year or two, and that's about the time table the Cubs should be on.

[Donzo]

Lot of love for Amaya, that's great... I still have Alzolay ahead of Amaya.

 

Alzolay is much more advanced, as he should be. Amaya has only hit in 3/5th's of a season in low A and Alzolay's ceiling is just as high as Amaya's.

[toonsterwu]

Is it? I can see arguments either way, for Adbert or for Miguel.

 

Here's the thing ... I'm not so sure either Miguel Amaya and Adbert Alzolay are top tier level guys, guys that have the talent to ever be a, say, top 15 type prospect.

 

They are close, but the reason I lean Amaya is two fold ...

 

a) It's really good performance in a really difficult league, showcasing power that people had some questions. One of the bigger concerns was his approach at the plate, and he's almost doubled his BB rate from the year before (as of now). Tools are there to be profile as an above average regular.

 

b) I like Adbert, but I'm not sure I buy the Cubs contention that he's a TOR starter type. Yes, starters have excelled with 2 pitches before, but the changeup needs time and work, something he's losing right now. If not (that is, if the changeup doesn't develop), I recall Longenhagen compared him to Antonio Senzatela, a nice arm, but an end of the rotation type that might be better suited to late inning pen work. Add in some minor concerns on durability as a starter.

 

___

 

I'm obviously making a case for Amaya over Adbert, and there's a case for the other way - Adbert's more advanced, has two pitches that should comfortably project him to a major league role, and enough people suggest hope for the changeup that suggests he could be a mid-rotation type arm.

[sneakypower]

where would Bote place on these lists?

[davell]

where would Bote place on these lists?

 

Bote would be top 6 for me.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

where would Bote place on these lists?

 

I have Bote 5th. He's still prospect eligible but I assume he'll graduate (and/or be traded) by season's end.

 

1. C Miguel Amaya

2. RHP Adbert Alzolay

3. SS Aramis Ademan

4. SS Nico Hoerner

5. 2B David Bote

6. RHP Alex Lange

7. LHP Brailyn Márquez

8. OF Brennen Davis

9. OF Cole Roederer

10. C Jhonny Pereda

11. RHP Cory Abbott

12. LHP Justin Steele

13. LHP Brendon Little

14. RHP Oscar de la Cruz

15. RHP Duane Underwood Jr

16. RHP Dakota Mekkes

17. RHP Bailey Clark (this rating is a bit dependent on what his injury is and how severe it is)

18. SS Zack Short

19. RHP Duncan Robinson

20. RHP Richard Gallardo

[Hrubes20]

where would Bote place on these lists?

 

I have Bote 5th. He's still prospect eligible but I assume he'll graduate (and/or be traded) by season's end.

 

1. C Miguel Amaya

2. RHP Adbert Alzolay

3. SS Aramis Ademan

4. SS Nico Hoerner

5. 2B David Bote

6. RHP Alex Lange

7. LHP Brailyn Márquez

8. OF Brennen Davis

9. OF Cole Roederer

10. C Jhonny Pereda

11. RHP Cory Abbott

12. LHP Justin Steele

13. LHP Brendon Little

14. RHP Oscar de la Cruz

15. RHP Duane Underwood Jr

16. RHP Dakota Mekkes

17. RHP Bailey Clark (this rating is a bit dependent on what his injury is and how severe it is)

18. SS Zack Short

19. RHP Duncan Robinson

20. RHP Richard Gallardo

 

Get out of my head! That's the exact same top 9 I would have.