Cubs Offseason Rumors

[Regular Show]

This offseason has a mid 1980s collusion feel to it. It could just be the contrast in quality from this years class to next years, but I can’t remember a time with so little movement this late in the off-season.

 

I really don't think it's collusion that is slowing down the FA marketplace. Teams and FOs are just a heck of lot smarter than they were even 10 years ago. They've done numerous studies on how inefficient it is to acquire players through FA. It just doesn't work out that well -- even when you target a young player with a good track record like Heyward.

 

Honestly, I understand why teams are so reluctant to commit big dollars (and years) to inconsistent talents like Arrieta, Darvish, Hosmer, JD Martinez, etc. this offseason. Every free agent has some kind of question mark or blemish, and prices seem to go down the longer teams wait in most cases.

 

I think Darvish will sign first and it'll pick up from there with Cobb signing somewhere soon after, and then Arrieta. I think the Royals ultimately re-sign Hosmer. I think the Blue Jays or Red Sox sign Martinez.

[jehr]

This offseason has a mid 1980s collusion feel to it. It could just be the contrast in quality from this years class to next years, but I can’t remember a time with so little movement this late in the off-season.

I think we're finally seeing the results of the luxury tax escalator kicking in. The risk of giving long term expensive contracts is significantly higher under the current system.

[Guancous]

This offseason has a mid 1980s collusion feel to it. It could just be the contrast in quality from this years class to next years, but I can’t remember a time with so little movement this late in the off-season.

 

Seems like teams are wary of the upcoming CBA. There will likely be harsher penalties for bad contracts.

[Bertz]

This offseason has a mid 1980s collusion feel to it. It could just be the contrast in quality from this years class to next years, but I can’t remember a time with so little movement this late in the off-season.

 

Like others, I don't think it's collusion, I think it's just a perfect storm of factors coming together to make a slow market. There was a trade deadline two or three years ago that was similar, it just happens sometimes.

 

I think the big one is a lack of parity in the league is the big one. 5 of the 6 divisions were pretty much already locked up the second the off season started. Horsefeathers will happen and one or two of those teams will fall short, but second-tier teams like the Twins aren't going to go balls to the wall just on the off chance that everyone in the Indians' rotation contracts lupus. Especially since with the Angels being gifted Ohtani and resigning Upton, both AL wildcards look pretty much locked up already as well. Teams like the Twins and Rangers aren't going to just fold it in, but they're probably going to be more opportunistic than aggressive.

 

I think an underrated secondary factor is Scott Boras. He represents most of the major players left, and he's always been willing to wait teams out. Normally, a top player signs and that reverbs both further down at that guy's position and also across to the other top guys on the market (there's only so many teams willing to throw $20+ million at a single player in a given off season). It sets off a game of musical chairs both vertically and horizontally. But right now Boras has JD Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Jake Arrieta, and Greg Holland. That's 5 of the 7 best FA's remaining, with Darvish and Lorenzo Cain being the exceptions. If teams want to play chicken, he can play chicken. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if nothing else big happens until Darvish signs. That'll thaw out the Boras guys a bit, and also let teams move on to Cobb and Lynn.

 

Beyond that I think it's the other factors that have been cited. The luxury tax, next year's FA class, and the offseason effectively starting late because of the Ohtani/Stanton situations.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Feelings on adding Lo Cain of he takes a short term deal?

[Post Count Padder]

Feelings on adding Lo Cain of he takes a short term deal?

Only if we include Almora in a trade for a pitcher. I would rather give him at bats and sign cheap 4th-5th outfielder than keep him relegated to 300 at bats and spend the money on Cain. He seems like someone the Giants should've signed by now.

[Cubswin11]

Feelings on adding Lo Cain of he takes a short term deal?

Nope, costs a pick and just kinda averageish on-base skills and it seems a lot of his game will go fast with age. I feel pretty confident Almora/Happ/Heywatd trio in CF for the 162 games they are rotated there will provide a higher WAR. Even if Almora is moved I’d rather go the Dyson/Jackson platoon route for CF and prefer either for the backup OF/Jay role as opposed to moving Almora there with a Cain signing.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Feelings on adding Lo Cain of he takes a short term deal?

Only if we include Almora in a trade for a pitcher. I would rather give him at bats and sign cheap 4th-5th outfielder than keep him relegated to 300 at bats and spend the money on Cain. He seems like someone the Giants should've signed by now.

 

This was my thought as well. Help soften the blow of an Almora trade.

 

Feelings on adding Lo Cain of he takes a short term deal?

Nope, costs a pick and just kinda averageish on-base skills and it seems a lot of his game will go fast with age. I feel pretty confident Almora/Happ/Heywatd trio in CF for the 162 games they are rotated there will provide a higher WAR. Even if Almora is moved I’d rather go the Dyson/Jackson platoon route for CF and prefer either for the backup OF/Jay role as opposed to moving Almora there with a Cain signing.

 

But this is interesting and makes a lot of sense. Now, defensively, he continues to bring solid value. I think offensively Cain is probably Almora's ceiling, so to speak. I'm not too concerned with the pick but your point about squeezing superior value out of the other less costly options is sound for sure and will probably be the case.

[davell]

We have in the vicinity of 35 mill to spend and stay under the LT. That said, any in-season moves come from within that too.

 

I really want Darvish, but if you get him, its likely leaving you with 7-8 mill to spend on anything else we need currently AND in-season additions.

 

Can we do that? I guess so. But, it'd require Caratini to be the backup C or some old dude on a NRI. Plus, no more pen additions, outside of NRI's. Same with a backup OF.

 

I'd be completely ok with it, if you can get a Cedeno and/or a Feliz for the pen. Maybe Geo as the backup C.....

 

Obviously, we could create room by a trade. But, I'm not seeing much for us to just dump either.

 

I really am starting to think we truly prefer trading for the rotation piece. It would make things much easier in every aspect.

[Cubswin11]

We have in the vicinity of 35 mill to spend and stay under the LT. That said, any in-season moves come from within that too.

 

I really want Darvish, but if you get him, its likely leaving you with 7-8 mill to spend on anything else we need currently AND in-season additions.

 

Can we do that? I guess so. But, it'd require Caratini to be the backup C or some old dude on a NRI. Plus, no more pen additions, outside of NRI's. Same with a backup OF.

 

I'd be completely ok with it, if you can get a Cedeno and/or a Feliz for the pen. Maybe Geo as the backup C.....

 

Obviously, we could create room by a trade. But, I'm not seeing much for us to just dump either.

 

I really am starting to think we truly prefer trading for the rotation piece. It would make things much easier in every aspect.

If we cut Grimm in ST how much does that save us, ~$2 million?

[davell]

Something else to consider on our end.....The arbitration guys. I'm going off MLBTR estimates obviously. Those final figures are super important to us, in this situation.

 

Those estimates are....

 

KB 8.9, Addy 2.3, Hendricks 4.9, Wilson 4.3, Seal Boy 1, and Grimm 2.4.

 

You can cut Grimm and he's only 400k. But, if those other figures come in slightly higher, it just means less for anything else.

 

My guess is they're trying their best to get these agreements in place right now. So they know what they've got to give Yu. Or even Jake.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think the pen is done unless Montgomery is traded, and even then it might not be an addition with material salary. Morrow, Cishek, Edwards, Strop, Wilson, Montgomery, Grimm is a full pen even before getting into the Iowa shuttle, and there are no real optionable players in that list either. Smyly is lurking in the back half too.

 

Darvish does cut into the financial wiggle room you have to play with, but he also means you don't have to trade from the position players to upgrade the rotation. That means you can wait out the OF market to get a deal on a backup or even go with an NRI or Zagunis, since Happ/Zobrist/Baez have only 1 open slot each day and enough positional flexibility to cover everywhere.

[davell]

Its possible we literally do nothing on the position side of things.

 

C Willy Caratini

1B Rizzo

2B Javy Zobrist

SS Addy

3B KB Seal Boy

LF Schwarber

CF Almora Happ

RF Heyward

 

We've got 12 and we carry 13 pitchers quite often anyway. Add an NRI backup C and OF, we easily could be done, without doing anything.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Honestly I want to hold onto Vic. I mean if he is a piece in that deal for the CCSP we covet, then fine. I won't shed a tear. But I think there is a really solid ML hitter there who will make like 2 mil over the next 4 seasons. If Willy were to miss time, I'd rather see what Vic can bring over a bum like Rivera whom is nothing like the version that showed up after the deadline. I like keeping Caratini and signing Jake or Darvish.

[Post Count Padder]

Well we did bring back Taylor Davis.

[davell]

If you need a vet on an NRI, I guess Carlos Ruiz, AJ Ellis or Geo conceivably works.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Its possible we literally do nothing on the position side of things.

 

C Willy Caratini

1B Rizzo

2B Javy Zobrist

SS Addy

3B KB Seal Boy

LF Schwarber

CF Almora Happ

RF Heyward

 

We've got 12 and we carry 13 pitchers quite often anyway. Add an NRI backup C and OF, we easily could be done, without doing anything.

 

If they weren't willing to give Caratini reps at catcher last year, I don't think they'll start the season with him as the primary backup. They'll bring in someone like Rivera, probably Rivera actually.

[CubsWin]

Its possible we literally do nothing on the position side of things.

 

C Willy Caratini

1B Rizzo

2B Javy Zobrist

SS Addy

3B KB Seal Boy

LF Schwarber

CF Almora Happ

RF Heyward

 

We've got 12 and we carry 13 pitchers quite often anyway. Add an NRI backup C and OF, we easily could be done, without doing anything.

Would the C and OF be veteran AAA depth then?

[Cubswin11]

Its possible we literally do nothing on the position side of things.

 

C Willy Caratini

1B Rizzo

2B Javy Zobrist

SS Addy

3B KB Seal Boy

LF Schwarber

CF Almora Happ

RF Heyward

 

We've got 12 and we carry 13 pitchers quite often anyway. Add an NRI backup C and OF, we easily could be done, without doing anything.

Would the C and OF be veteran AAA depth then?

I bet whatever backup C we sign, even some washed up vet like Ruiz or Ellis starts in the 25-Man roster. I think it’s highly likely Caritini starts in AAA to get regular work.

[davell]

Its possible we literally do nothing on the position side of things.

 

C Willy Caratini

1B Rizzo

2B Javy Zobrist

SS Addy

3B KB Seal Boy

LF Schwarber

CF Almora Happ

RF Heyward

 

We've got 12 and we carry 13 pitchers quite often anyway. Add an NRI backup C and OF, we easily could be done, without doing anything.

Would the C and OF be veteran AAA depth then?

 

I think they'd go outside the org. And TT is right, its almost a certainty they add a vet C. But, it could be one of the guys I mentioned. Maybe they'd take an NRI(confident Geo would).

 

Plus, its possible they could deal for those pieces. Definitely possible on the OF, as I'd guess there's some borderline decent guy you could acquire that's still pre arb, that's not too costly.

[CubsWin]

Honestly I want to hold onto Vic. I mean if he is a piece in that deal for the CCSP we covet, then fine. I won't shed a tear. But I think there is a really solid ML hitter there who will make like 2 mil over the next 4 seasons. If Willy were to miss time, I'd rather see what Vic can bring over a bum like Rivera whom is nothing like the version that showed up after the deadline. I like keeping Caratini and signing Jake or Darvish.

I'm okay holding on to Caratini but I'm not sure I want him being the primary back up to Contreras right now. I want a veteran game caller with solid receiving skills during a championship run. I don't care about the bat as much in this line up. Caratini's best role for this season is to be Contreras injury insurance in AAA because he's got options left and most, if not all, of the solid veteran options won't.

 

Let him work on his receiving and game calling in Iowa and bring him up if one of Contreras or the vet back up goes on the DL. I'm much more comfortable having say Rivera and Caratini split time starting games in case Contreras goes down than Caratini and some NRI dude like Ali Solis or a veteran they scramble to acquire in season.

[Post Count Padder]

Honestly I want to hold onto Vic. I mean if he is a piece in that deal for the CCSP we covet, then fine. I won't shed a tear. But I think there is a really solid ML hitter there who will make like 2 mil over the next 4 seasons. If Willy were to miss time, I'd rather see what Vic can bring over a bum like Rivera whom is nothing like the version that showed up after the deadline. I like keeping Caratini and signing Jake or Darvish.

I'm okay holding on to Caratini but I'm not sure I want him being the primary back up to Contreras right now. I want a veteran game caller with solid receiving skills during a championship run. I don't care about the bat as much in this line up. Caratini's best role for this season is to be Contreras injury insurance in AAA because he's got options left and most, if not all, of the solid veteran options won't.

 

Let him work on his receiving and game calling in Iowa and bring him up if one of Contreras or the vet back up goes on the DL. I'm much more comfortable having say Rivera and Caratini split time starting games in case Contreras goes down than Caratini and some NRI dude like Ali Solis or a veteran they scramble to acquire in season.

Yeah Caratini, if not part of a trade, should get work in Iowa. He can come up if there's an injury. I'm still surprised we haven't just brought back Rene Rivera. Would be cheap enough and we know what we're getting.

[CubsWin]

Its possible we literally do nothing on the position side of things.

 

C Willy Caratini

1B Rizzo

2B Javy Zobrist

SS Addy

3B KB Seal Boy

LF Schwarber

CF Almora Happ

RF Heyward

 

We've got 12 and we carry 13 pitchers quite often anyway. Add an NRI backup C and OF, we easily could be done, without doing anything.

Would the C and OF be veteran AAA depth then?

 

I think they'd go outside the org. And TT is right, its almost a certainty they add a vet C. But, it could be one of the guys I mentioned. Maybe they'd take an NRI(confident Geo would).

 

Plus, its possible they could deal for those pieces. Definitely possible on the OF, as I'd guess there's some borderline decent guy you could acquire that's still pre arb, that's not too costly.

I meant would the guys being acquired be AAA depth because you just listed 12 position players and (outside of a CF defensive specialist) I don't see a need for another OFer.

 

And yes, I'd go with a vet C that's an above average game caller and receiver and have Caratini start in AAA,

[davell]

Would the C and OF be veteran AAA depth then?

 

I think they'd go outside the org. And TT is right, its almost a certainty they add a vet C. But, it could be one of the guys I mentioned. Maybe they'd take an NRI(confident Geo would).

 

Plus, its possible they could deal for those pieces. Definitely possible on the OF, as I'd guess there's some borderline decent guy you could acquire that's still pre arb, that's not too costly.

I meant would the guys being acquired be AAA depth because you just listed 12 position players and (outside of a CF defensive specialist) I don't see a need for another OFer.

 

And yes, I'd go with a vet C that's an above average game caller and receiver and have Caratini start in AAA,

 

I'd guess if we acquire an OF, it would be a Szczur type with an option. So he's up if we've got 12 pitchers, or an injury, but can be stashed, if needed. But, a guy with more ML experience than Zagunis. Hell, Zagunis could be who gets dealt for this fictional guy I'm not even sure exists lol.

[Cubswin11]

I'm still surprised we haven't just brought back Rene Rivera. Would be cheap enough and we know what we're getting.

Could be he’s holding out for more money or a team where he could have a bigger role. Also could be we are waiting to see what route we go and exactly how much the last SP costs, if it’s cheaper than the limit to where we’d go then maybe they go give Avila a little more money with the savings since he’s a better player/left-handed to compliment Willy better.